News
SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy reaches milestone as third booster arrives in FL
A new SpaceX rocket was spotted traveling into Florida yesterday on its way to one of the company’s several Cape Canaveral booster storage and processing hangars. More likely than not, this particular booster is the second Falcon Heavy center core ever built, a heavily modified variant of Falcon 9’s first stage.
With the presumed center core’s arrival, all three Falcon Heavy boosters are now at or near SpaceX Launch Complex 39A, a major step forward for the second flight of the super heavy-lift launch vehicle, currently NET March 2019. Aside from the first stage, it appears that Falcon Heavy Flight 2’s payload fairing may have also arrived at Cape Canaveral around the end of January.
Captured by SpaceX Facebook group member Joshua Murrah on the morning of February 11th, the shrinkwrapped Falcon booster and truck were stopped at a weigh station on the border of Alabama and Florida, a now-common location for core spottings thanks to its adjacency to Mr. Murrah’s daily commute. No more than an 8-10 hour drive from Florida’s East Coast and Kennedy Space Center, the rocket likely arrived at its destination sometime within the last 12 or so hours.
While Falcon Heavy hardware would normally be expected to head straight for SpaceX’s hangar at Pad 39A, the only facility currently capable of launching the triple-booster rocket, the company faces a mild logistical challenge thanks to the terminally delayed launch debut of Crew Dragon. As of now, Crew Dragon, Falcon 9, and 39A’s transporter/erector (T/E) are integrated inside the pad’s hangar, leaving very little space for additional rocket processing as a result of the sheer scale of the T/E. Past photos of SpaceX’s 39A hangar illustrate that it can nominally house 4 or 5 Falcon boosters with ease, but space becomes far more limited once the T/E is rolled inside.
there might actually be juuuust enough room to literally fit them per FH Flight 1 processing pics, but only enough for Falcon Heavy integration if the TE remains outside. Will be very curious to see how SpaceX handles this, it's one hell of a logistical puzzle 😅 pic.twitter.com/D5BFXQnQ3V
— Eric Ralph (@13ericralph31) January 30, 2019
In essence, Falcon Heavy Flight 2 will likely have to wait until Crew Dragon has completed its launch debut before SpaceX technicians and engineers can begin integrating its three boosters and verifying that all is healthy, only the second time SpaceX will have performed those procedures. Crew Dragon’s uncrewed demonstration mission (DM-1) is currently scheduled for NET March 2nd, although there is a high probability that it will slip at least a few more days into March, if not further. Prior to its latest March 2nd launch target, Crew Dragon was expected to launch sometime in mid-to-late January as of December 2018, a date that has effectively remained 30+ days away ever since.
It’s ambiguous what the causes of those delays are and SpaceX and NASA clearly have no interest in directly tackling an explanation, but the most likely reason can be found in a painfully mundane reality: paperwork, worsened by a record-length US goverment shutdown. While both partners are likely culpable in some way, the fact remains that SpaceX has a long history of doing difficult things faster and cheaper than the old guard perceives as possible, while NASA has its own decades-long history of doing difficult things with extreme caution (for better or for worse).
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- The second (and third) flight of Falcon Heavy is even closer to reality as the first new side booster heads to Florida after finishing static fire tests in Texas. (Reddit /u/e32revelry)
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- SpaceX Facebook group member Joshua Murrah captured two great photos of the second Falcon Heavy side booster to arrive in Florida in the last month. (Joshua Murrah, 01/17/19)
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- SpaceX Facebook group member Joshua Murrah also captured what is likely the third Falcon Heavy booster’s Florida arrival. (Joshua Murrah, 02/11/19)
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- Falcon Heavy ahead of its inaugural launch. (SpaceX)
With any luck, Crew Dragon will successfully launch into orbit for the first time in the first several days of March, leaving enough buffer for SpaceX to rapidly integrate, checkout, and static-fire Falcon Heavy for an operational launch debut – carrying communications satellite Arabsat 6A – near the end of March. If all goes well, Falcon Heavy’s third launch – the USAF’s second Space Test Program mission (STP-2) – could occur as early as April 2019, potentially just a month after Flight 2.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
