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SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket could launch a NASA space station to the Moon
According to NASA, a SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket (or another commercial heavy-lift launch vehicle) could potentially launch the bulk of a new Moon-orbiting space station in a single go, saving money and reducing risk.
Known as the Gateway, NASA is working to build a tiny space station in an exotic and odd orbit around the Moon. Lacking any clear and pressing purpose, NASA and the Gateway’s proponents have argued that it could serve as a testbed for interplanetary missions, allowing the space agency to figure out how to keep astronauts alive and healthy in deep space. Later, it was proposed as a sort of unwieldy orbital tug and home base for crewed Moon landers, although the Gateway appears to have recently been removed from any plans for mid-2020s Moon landings.
Most likely, the station is being built in order to give NASA’s wildly over-budget, behind-schedule Orion spacecraft and SLS rocket some kind of destination worthy of their gobsmacking $2-3 billion launch cost and $35-40 billion development cost. Regardless, a space station orbiting the Moon – while lacking a clear and present scientific or exploratory reason for its existence – is undeniably cool and exciting and will indeed need to be launched into cislunar space. Previously planned to launch as separate modules that would then rendezvous and dock in at the Moon, NASA has recently decided to switch gears.
As of May 2020, NASA has awarded three critical hardware contracts for Gateway. In 2019, the space agency awarded contracts to Maxar and Northrop Grumman to build the Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO), respectively. As the name suggests, the PPE will feature an exceptionally large ~50 kW solar array and the most powerful electric thrusters ever flown in space, thus supplying Gateway with electricity and propulsion. HALO is a miniscule habitat module also responsible for life support and providing all other basic necessities for astronauts to live in space, all of which will leave a tiny amount of actual habitable volume for those astronauts to live in.
Most recently, NASA also awarded SpaceX a contract to develop a new Dragon XL spacecraft that will launch on Falcon Heavy and autonomously resupply the lunar space station at least twice, should Gateway actually make it to launch.
The notional plan is to eventually expand the habitable volume of the station from living in a large SUV to something more like a small studio apartment, a bit less than a third as large as the International Space Station (ISS) in a best-case scenario. The ISS is designed to support at least six astronauts simultaneously and has done so for almost two decades, albeit only with the help of resupply missions launched from Earth every 2-3 months. Indeed, the plan is to send up to four astronauts to the Gateway for no more than 90 days a year.
Two birds, one stone; two eggs, one basket
Originally, NASA wanted to launch the PPE and HALO modules – together representing the absolute bare minimum needed to build a functional Gateway – on separate commercial rockets in 2022 and 2023, respectively. Now, according to NASA associate administrator Doug Loverro, the space agency has made the decision to launch both modules simultaneously on the same commercial rocket.
This decision was made in large part because it makes sense from a technical simplicity and overall efficiency standpoint but also because several commercial launch vehicles – either currently operational or soon to be – are set to debut extremely large payload fairings. As a combined payload, the Gateway PPE and HALO modules would be too big for just about any existing launch vehicle, while the tiny handful it might fit in lack the performance needed to send such a heavy payload to the Moon.
Falcon Heavy apparently has the performance needed, as NASA used the rocket and a new stretched fairing developed by SpaceX for military customers as a baseline to determine whether PPE and HALO could launch together. Given that NASA could have technically used any of the vehicles expected to have large payload fairings for that analysis, the explicit use and mention of Falcon Heavy rather strongly suggests that the SpaceX rocket is a front runner for the new combined launch contract. This isn’t exactly surprising, given that the massive rocket has already completed three successful launches and will attempt at least another four missions between now and 2023.
Of the other launch vehicles expected to feature large fairings capable of supporting the combined PPE/HALO payload, ULA’s Vulcan Centaur rocket is scheduled to launch for the first time in July 2021, while Blue Origin’s New Glenn is unlikely to launch before late 2021. Northrop Grumman is also developing the Omega rocket with a large fairing, although it’s unlikely to have the performance needed for the unique Gateway payload. As such, by 2023, Falcon Heavy will almost certainly have a record of launches well out of reach of other prospective PPE/HALO launch competitors. For obvious reasons, putting both modules of a space station on a single launch raises the stakes, making it more critical than ever than risk be reduced where it can be – especially important for launch operations.
Notionally including Gateway’s PPE and HALO, Falcon Heavy now has as many as nine launches on contract (or nearly so) over the next five or so years. It’s extraordinarily unlikely that any of Falcon Heavy’s prospective competitors will be able to get close to the SpaceX rocket’s flight history by 2023, effectively making Falcon Heavy the de facto choice for NASA from an apolitical, technical perspective.
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Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results.
Tesla has taken the rather unusual step of officially publishing its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus on the Investor Relations site. As per analyst estimates, Tesla is expected to deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems this Q4 2025.
By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results, making it harder for narratives to claim a “miss” based on outlier estimates.
Official consensus sets the record straight
Tesla’s IR press release detailed the consensus from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy deployments. As per the release, full-year 2025 consensus delivery estimates come in at 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from 2025’s FY deliveries of 1,789,226 cars.
Tesla noted that while it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts,” its press release does provide a notable reference point. Analysts contributing to the company compiled consensus include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.
Tesla’s busy Q4 2025
Tesla seems to be pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible before the end of 2025, despite the company’s future seemingly being determined not by vehicle deliveries, but FSD and Optimus’ rollout and ramp. Still, reports from countries such as China are optimistic, with posts on social media hinting that Tesla’s delivery centers in the country are appearing packed as the final weeks of 2025 unfold.
The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are also still performing well in China’s premium EV segment. Based on data from January to November, the Model Y took China’s number one spot in the RMB 200,000-RMB 300,000 segment for electric vehicles, selling 359,463 units. The Model 3 sedan took third place, selling 172,392. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model Y and Model 3 command a premium compared to their domestic rivals.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk accepts invitation to Israel’s Smart Transportation Conference
The announcement was shared by the Israeli Prime Minister in a post on social media platform X.
Elon Musk has reportedly accepted an invitation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to participate in the country’s Smart Transportation Conference in March 2026.
The announcement was shared by the Israeli Prime Minister in a post on social media platform X.
A call and an invitation
Netanyahu posted on X about Musk, stating in Hebrew: “Last night, I held a joint conference call from Florida with entrepreneur Elon Musk, Minister of Transportation Miri Regev, and the head of the National AI Headquarters, Erez Askal. In the framework of the conversation, Musk responded to my invitation and Minister Regev’s invitation to participate in the Smart Transportation Conference that will be held in March.”
Netanyahu added that he and Musk discussed continuing initiatives such as the promotion of autonomous vehicle laws and the boosting of AI technologies in Israel. This, according to the Prime Minister, is aimed at making the country a global leader in emerging technologies.
“Additionally, we discussed the continuation of collaborations with Tesla and the promotion of the law pertaining to autonomous vehicles. I spoke at length with Musk about promoting and developing artificial intelligence technologies in Israel, and I said in our conversation: We intend to catapult Israel and turn it into a global leader in the field, just as we did in cyber and other technologies,” Netanyahu added.
Tesla FSD’s upcoming rollout in Israel
Elon Musk’s upcoming conference appearance in Israel could hint at Tesla’s upcoming rollout of FSD and its Robotaxi service in the country. Previous reports have hinted that FSD is nearing regulatory approval in Israel, following strong advocacy from local owners and direct intervention from the government.
Nearly 1,000 Tesla drivers petitioned authorities, highlighting FSD’s potential to enhance road safety. Transport and Road Safety Minister Miri Regev responded positively on X, writing “I’ve received the many referrals from Tesla drivers in Israel! Tesla drivers? Soon you won’t need to hold the steering wheel.”
Minister Regev has instructed the ministry’s Director-General to accelerate the approval process, including necessary tests. A dedicated working group, led by Moshe Ben-Zaken, is also coordinating with regulatory and safety agencies to meet international standards.
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Tesla China delivery centers look packed as 2025 comes to a close
Needless to say, it appears that Tesla China seems intent on ending 2025 on a strong note.
Tesla’s delivery centers in China seem to be absolutely packed as the final days of 2025 wind down, with photos on social media showing delivery locations being filled wall-to-wall with vehicles waiting for their new owners.
Needless to say, it appears that Tesla China seems intent on ending 2025 on a strong note.
Full delivery center hints at year-end demand surge
A recent image from a Chinese delivery center posted by industry watcher @Tslachan on X revealed rows upon rows of freshly prepared Model Y and Model 3 units, some of which were adorned with red bows and teddy bears. Some customers also seem to be looking over their vehicles with Tesla delivery staff.
The images hint at a strong year-end push to clear inventory and deliver as many vehicles as possible. Interestingly enough, several Model Y L vehicles could be seen in the photos, hinting at the demand for the extended wheelbase-six seat variant of the best-selling all-electric crossover.
Strong demand in China
Consumer demand for the Model Y and Model 3 in China seems to be quite notable. This could be inferred from the estimated delivery dates for the Model 3 and Model Y, which have been extended to February 2026 for several variants. Apart from this, the Model Y and Model 3 also continue to rank well in China’s premium EV segment.
From January to November alone, the Model Y took China’s number one spot in the RMB 200,000-RMB 300,000 segment for electric vehicles, selling 359,463 units. The Model 3 sedan took third place, selling 172,392. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model Y and Model 3 are still priced at a premium compared to some of their rivals, such as the Xiaomi SU7 and YU7.
With delivery centers in December being quite busy, it does seem like Tesla China will end the year on a strong note once more.
Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus
Tesla’s Elon Musk accepts invitation to Israel’s Smart Transportation Conference
