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SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket back in action after a three-year hiatus
Update: The US Space Systems Command says that SpaceX’s first direct launch to geosynchronous orbit was a “simply outstanding” success, safely deploying several satellites more than 36,000 kilometers (~22,400 mi) above the Earth’s surface.
The success of the US Space Force’s USSF-44 mission means that SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy rocket is now one of just a handful of operational rockets in the world that has demonstrated the ability to launch satellites directly to geosynchronous orbit. More importantly, it’s one of just three US rockets with that established capability. The other two rockets – ULA’s Atlas V and Delta IV – will cease to be available for US military missions by the end of 2023, meaning that Falcon Heavy may briefly become the only rocket in the world able to launch certain US military missions until ULA’s next-generation Vulcan rocket is ready to prove itself.
SpaceX’s Falcon Heavy has continued a streak of successful dual-booster landings during its first attempted launch directly to geosynchronous orbit, a mission that was also the rocket’s first launch in more than three years.
Known as USSF-44 and initially scheduled to launch more than two years ago, the US Space Force mission finally lifted off on November 1st, 2022 after relentless payload delays. By mid-2021, the hardware required for SpaceX’s first Falcon Heavy launch since June 2019 – mainly three new first-stage boosters – had finished qualification testing and been shipped to Florida in anticipation of a late-2021 or early-2022 launch. That launch never came.
Only in November 2022 did most or all of USSF-44’s payloads finally come together, resulting in a gap of more than 40 months between Falcon Heavy launches as practically every other payload assigned to the rocket in the interim experience their own significant delays. Regardless, on November 1st, Falcon Heavy lifted off for the fourth time and performed flawlessly for the nine minutes the US Space Force allowed SpaceX’s webcast to continue.
Over the course of those nine minutes, Falcon Heavy’s twin side boosters – both flying for the first time – helped send the rest of the rocket on its way to space before separating from the center core, upper stage, and payload to boost back towards the Florida coast. Less than eight minutes after liftoff, they safely touched down seconds apart at SpaceX’s LZ-1 and LZ-2 landing zones. Lacking grid fins or landing legs, Falcon Heavy’s intentionally-expendable center core (middle booster) continued burning for another 90 seconds and only separated from the upper stage after reaching a speed of almost four kilometers per second (8,900 mph) – a new record for a SpaceX rocket booster.
The center core, B1066, was likely obliterated when it reentered Earth’s atmosphere traveling at approximately 50% of orbital velocity. Side boosters B1064 and B1065, however, will be rapidly refurbished for a “future US Space Force mission” that SpaceX – perhaps incorrectly – says could follow USSF-44 as early as “later this year.” Unless SpaceX has received an additional USSF launch contract in secret, the company’s next USSF mission appears to be USSF-67, which the US Space Systems Command reported could launch as early as January 2023 in their latest press release [PDF]. USSF-44 and USSF-67 are technically set to launch in the same US fiscal year but not the same calendar year.
USSF-44 is SpaceX’s first direct geosynchronous launch, meaning that Falcon Heavy is attempting to deliver the US military’s payloads to a circular geosynchronous orbit (GEO) approximately 36,000 kilometers (~22,400 mi) above Earth’s surface. “Geosynchronous” refers to the fact that a spacecraft’s orbital velocity matches Earth’s rotational velocity at that altitude, making it a popular destination for communications and Earth observation satellites that want to observe the same region of Earth all the time. Ordinarily, to simplify the rocket’s job, most GEO-bound satellites are launched into an elliptical geosynchronous or geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) and use their own propulsion to circularize that ellipse.
On a direct-to-GEO launch, the rocket does almost all of the work. After reaching a parking orbit in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), Falcon Heavy’s upper stage likely completed a second burn to geosynchronous transfer orbit. Then, while conducting a complex ballet of thermal management and tank pressure maintenance to prevent all of its cryogenic liquid oxygen (LOx) from boiling into gas and its refined kerosene (RP-1) from freezing into an unusable slush, the upper stage must coast ‘uphill’ for around five or six hours.
Over that journey from an altitude of about 300 kilometers to 36,000 kilometers, in addition to the above tasks, the upper stage must also survive passes through both of Earth’s radiation belts. At apogee, Falcon S2 must reignite its Merlin Vacuum engine for around one or two minutes to reach a circular geosynchronous orbit. Payload deployment will follow and could last anywhere from a few minutes to an hour. Finally, to be a dutiful space tenant, Falcon’s upper stage must complete at least one or two more burns to reach its final destination: a graveyard orbit a few hundred kilometers above GEO.
SpaceX’s third Falcon Heavy launch, a US Air Force mission called STP-2, was a partial dry-run of direct-to-GEO launch – albeit in low Earth orbit (LEO) instead of LEO, GTO, and GEO. During STP-2, Falcon Heavy’s upper stage completed four successful burns in three and a half hours. USSF-44 is significantly more challenging by most measures but not entirely outside of SpaceX’s range of experience. In addition to STP-2, Falcon 9 upper stages have conducted a few long-duration coast tests after completing unrelated primary missions.
In statements made to Spaceflight Now, the US Space Systems Command said that USSF-44’s two main payloads are a pair of propulsive kick stages and payload platforms, one – LDPE-2 – supplied by Northrop Grumman and the other – the “Shepherd Demonstration” – a mystery. LDPE-2 will reportedly carry three hosted payloads and deploy three rideshare satellites: likely two Lockheed Martin LINUSS-A cubesats and Millenium Space Systems’ TETRA-1. All three rideshare satellites are designed to demonstrate various new technologies, ranging from propulsion systems to avionics.
Rewatch SpaceX’s USSF-44 Falcon Heavy launch here.
Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
