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SpaceX Falcon Heavy side booster arrives at Texas test facilities
NASASpaceflight.com reports that the first new booster for SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch has arrived at the company’s McGregor, Texas test facilities.
The canonical sign that SpaceX is rapidly progressing towards its next Falcon Heavy launch, the mission – set to carry the US military’s US Space Force 44 (USSF-44) satellite(s) directly to geostationary orbit (GEO) – requires all new boosters. For SpaceX, barring a major surprise in the next five months, USSF-44 will be the first operational direct-to-GEO launch in the company’s history – a milestone years and multiple test flights in the making.
US military officials have begun to at least vaguely support the idea of flying payloads on flight-proven SpaceX rockets but it looks to be a long uphill battle ahead of the company. It took almost half a decade and four-dozen successful booster landings for the US Air Force to even allow SpaceX to attempt to land a Falcon 9 booster after an operational military launch. As a result, the company will likely be building new rockets for its military launches for the indefinite future – Falcon Heavy and its three boosters included.
The photo at the top of this article shows a largely identical Falcon Heavy Block 5 side booster – either B1052 or B1053 – during a late-2018 static fire acceptance test campaign in McGregor, Texas.
Based on NASASpaceflight.com’s aerial photos of the latest rocket to arrive in McGregor, Texas, one would assume that SpaceX was simply testing a new Falcon 9 first stage. Notably, the booster appears to have a Falcon 9 interstage installed, whereas Falcon Heavy side boosters have historically been tested with nosecones installed. However, by analyzing the layout of decals visible on its exterior, author Thomas Burghardt discovered that the booster – believed to be B1064 – is likely the first of two new Falcon Heavy side boosters needed for USSF-44.
For unknown reasons, SpaceX has outfitted, transported, and prepared B1064 for acceptance testing with a years-old interstage installed, effectively making it a Falcon Heavy side booster in Falcon 9 clothing (sans nosecone).
In its current configuration, the process of manufacturing three new Falcon Heavy boosters at SpaceX’s Hawthorne, CA factory takes at least half a year from the start of tank welding to shipment. After each booster is completed, it must ship to McGregor, Texas for at least 4-6 weeks to undergo acceptance tests, including at least one wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire. In other words, if the first of three new Falcon Heavy Block 5 boosters has just arrived in McGregor, SpaceX likely has two or three months of work to go before the entire USSF-44 rocket is on site at Florida’s Kennedy Space Center.
Just two weeks ago, a US military official revealed that SpaceX’s USSF-44 Falcon Heavy launch date had slipped from late-2020 (likely November or December) to no earlier than (NET) February 28th, 2021. The cause of the delay is unknown but either way, it should give SpaceX two full months to process Falcon Heavy Flight 4 hardware in Florida (or several weeks of margin wherever needed). After USSF-44, SpaceX’s next Falcon Heavy launch – USSF-52; also expected to fly on all-new boosters – was scheduled to launch NET “early 2021” before the preceding mission’s delay was announced. To achieve that schedule, SpaceX will likely be building and testing new Falcon Heavy boosters – and Falcon Heavy boosters only – from mid-2020 to at least Q1 2021.
On the plus side, as NASASpaceflight.com noted, if SpaceX manages to recover all USSF-44 and USSF-52 boosters, it will quickly find itself with a fleet of six side boosters and two center cores.
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Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) closed at an all-time high on Tuesday, jumping over 3 percent during the day and finishing at $489.88.
The price beats the previous record close, which was $479.86.
Shares have had a crazy year, dipping more than 40 percent from the start of the year. The stock then started to recover once again around late April, when its price started to climb back up from the low $200 level.
This week, Tesla started to climb toward its highest levels ever, as it was revealed on Sunday that the company was testing driverless Robotaxis in Austin. The spike in value pushed the company’s valuation to $1.63 trillion.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
It is the seventh-most valuable company on the market currently, trailing Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet (Google), Microsoft, Amazon, and Meta.
Shares closed up $14.57 today, up over 3 percent.
The stock has gone through a lot this year, as previously mentioned. Shares tumbled in Q1 due to CEO Elon Musk’s involvement with the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), which pulled his attention away from his companies and left a major overhang on their valuations.
However, things started to rebound halfway through the year, and as the government started to phase out the $7,500 tax credit, demand spiked as consumers tried to take advantage of it.
Q3 deliveries were the highest in company history, and Tesla responded to the loss of the tax credit with the launch of the Model 3 and Model Y Standard.
Additionally, analysts have announced high expectations this week for the company on Wall Street as Robotaxi continues to be the focus. With autonomy within Tesla’s sights, things are moving in the direction of Robotaxi being a major catalyst for growth on the Street in the coming year.
Elon Musk
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs says.
Tesla is in the process of rolling out its Robotaxi platform to areas outside of Austin and the California Bay Area. It has plans to launch in five additional cities, including Houston, Dallas, Miami, Las Vegas, and Phoenix.
However, the company’s expansion is not what the focus needs to be, according to Delaney. It’s the speed of deployment.
The analyst said:
“We think the key focus from here will be how fast Tesla can scale driverless operations (including if Tesla’s approach to software/hardware allows it to scale significantly faster than competitors, as the company has argued), and on profitability.”
Profitability will come as the Robotaxi fleet expands. Making that money will be dependent on when Tesla can initiate rides in more areas, giving more customers access to the program.
There are some additional things that the company needs to make happen ahead of the major Robotaxi expansion, one of those things is launching driverless rides in Austin, the first city in which it launched the program.
This week, Tesla started testing driverless Robotaxi rides in Austin, as two different Model Y units were spotted with no occupants, a huge step in the company’s plans for the ride-sharing platform.
Tesla Robotaxi goes driverless as Musk confirms Safety Monitor removal testing
CEO Elon Musk has been hoping to remove Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin for several months, first mentioning the plan to have them out by the end of 2025 in September. He confirmed on Sunday that Tesla had officially removed vehicle occupants and started testing truly unsupervised rides.
Although Safety Monitors in Austin have been sitting in the passenger’s seat, they have still had the ability to override things in case of an emergency. After all, the ultimate goal was safety and avoiding any accidents or injuries.
Goldman Sachs reiterated its ‘Neutral’ rating and its $400 price target. Delaney said, “Tesla is making progress with its autonomous technology,” and recent developments make it evident that this is true.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets bold Robotaxi prediction from Wall Street firm
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a bold Robotaxi prediction from Morgan Stanley, which anticipates a dramatic increase in the size of the company’s autonomous ride-hailing suite in the coming years.
Last week, Andrew Percoco took over Tesla analysis for Morgan Stanley from Adam Jonas, who covered the stock for years. Percoco seems to be less optimistic and bullish on Tesla shares, while still being fair and balanced in his analysis.
Percoco dug into the Robotaxi fleet and its expansion in the coming years in his latest note, released on Tuesday. The firm expects Tesla to increase the Robotaxi fleet size to 1,000 vehicles in 2026. However, that’s small-scale compared to what they expect from Tesla in a decade.
Tesla expands Robotaxi app access once again, this time on a global scale
By 2035, Morgan Stanley believes there will be one million Robotaxis on the road across multiple cities, a major jump and a considerable fleet size. We assume this means the fleet of vehicles Tesla will operate internally, and not including passenger-owned vehicles that could be added through software updates.
He also listed three specific catalysts that investors should pay attention to, as these will represent the company being on track to achieve its Robotaxi dreams:
- Opening Robotaxi to the public without a Safety Monitor. Timing is unclear, but it appears that Tesla is getting closer by the day.
- Improvement in safety metrics without the Safety Monitor. Tesla’s ability to improve its safety metrics as it scales miles driven without the Safety Monitor is imperative as it looks to scale in new states and cities in 2026.
- Cybercab start of production, targeted for April 2026. Tesla’s Cybercab is a purpose-built vehicle (no steering wheel or pedals, only two seats) that is expected to be produced through its state-of-the-art unboxed manufacturing process, offering further cost reductions and thus accelerating adoption over time.
Robotaxi stands to be one of Tesla’s most significant revenue contributors, especially as the company plans to continue expanding its ride-hailing service across the world in the coming years.
Its current deployment strategy is controlled and conservative to avoid any drastic and potentially program-ruining incidents.
So far, the program, which is active in Austin and the California Bay Area, has been widely successful.
Tesla stock closes at all-time high on heels of Robotaxi progress
Tesla needs to come through on this one Robotaxi metric, analyst says
