On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.
Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.
However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.
That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.
In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.
Starlink
In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.
That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.
Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).
Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.
Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.
Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.
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Tesla Model Y reclaims elusive sales title in competitive market
As more EVs have entered the market and some at better prices, Tesla’s Model Y has been put up against some very attractive options.
The Tesla Model Y reclaimed an elusive sales title in one of the most competitive markets it is in, outpacing key rivals and formidable competitors to regain the crown it once was a shoe-in for.
As more EVs have entered the market and some at better prices, Tesla’s Model Y has been put up against some very attractive options.
This is especially prudent in Europe and China, where domestic car companies have been offering attractive and cheap EVs as Tesla alternatives.
However, in September, the Model Y was able to battle back and take over the top sales spot for EVs in Europe.
In September, it had 25,938 sales, and although it was an 8.6 percent decrease compared to the same month in 2024, it was enough to be labeled the best-selling car in the European market, Automotive News reported.
500-mile test proves why Tesla Model Y still humiliates rivals in Europe
There are four vehicles that have been atop the European EV sales rankings for any given month this year: the Renault Clio, which has three titles, the Dacia Sandero, which has won four monthly sales titles, and the Volkswagen T-Roc, which was the best-selling car in the market in August.
The Clio captured the number-two spot in September with 20,146 sales.
Despite a strong September showing for the Model Y, which was its first monthly sales crown of the year, the vehicle has not been a top-three EV in Europe this year. That is still led by the Sandero, Clio, and T-Roc.
Despite that, Tesla’s Model Y is still likely to be one of the best-selling vehicles in the world, if not the best, for the year.
In the United States, it has dominated EV sales charts and has been one of the most popular cars in the region. The same goes for China, where the Model Y has more competition than in Europe, but is so attractive because of its premium look and feel, as well as its tech offerings.
The Model Y has been the best-selling car globally for the past two years, outpacing widely popular gas and EV models from around the world.
Tesla also just finished up its best three-month sales period in its history, delivering just shy of half a million vehicles from July to September.
A Tesla captured video of a crashing plane on an Oklahoma highway, as a shocking video shows a small aircraft coming across a local roadway, with various cars ducking to avoid it.
On October 23, an Oklahoma National Guard OA-1K Skyraider II turboprop plane crashed during a training mission after an engine failure. Both crew members escaped unharmed, but they were not the only ones at risk of injury.
A Tesla Dashcam video shared by a friend of the car’s owner shows the vehicle narrowly avoiding an impact with the plane, swerving left, then back onto its side of the road. It appears to be a serious miracle:
WOW! Tesla full self driving dodges a freaking plane falling out of the sky! @Tesla fsd for the win! @elonmusk pic.twitter.com/vTVxuLPsHg
— David Bellow (@davidbellow) October 24, 2025
David Bellow, the person who posted the video of the Tesla avoiding the plane, claims it was Full Self-Driving that performed the maneuver, but it is not confirmed. This is what he said:
This wasn’t me my friend sent me the video from Matthew Topchian it was his Tesla. I’ll see if my friend can reach out and get more details of what fsd version! I personally had a video of my Tesla maneuvering between two bunnies at night on the road so I fully believe this to be…
— David Bellow (@davidbellow) October 25, 2025
There are a few hints that suggest it could be Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite, but it is important to note that neither the company, the driver, nor the friend has confirmed this.
The first hint is the vehicle’s maneuver and subsequent reaction. The car suddenly swerves to the left, which any human would do, but how the vehicle continues to travel as if nothing had happened seems to solidify the idea that FSD could have been involved in avoiding the plane.
Nevertheless, this does not confirm that FSD was in control.
My Tesla did this on FSD (Supervised) v14.1 and the internet went crazy
Most people would likely have stopped in their tracks after avoiding an aircraft while driving.
However, this is not enough proof to definitively say FSD was responsible for the avoidance.
Additionally, the “Jump to Event” button is activated in the video, suggesting that FSD was in control. The vehicle gives this option when something major has occurred, including human intervention.
Regardless of whether the car was on FSD or was controlled manually, it is pretty crazy to have this piece of dashcam footage.
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Tesla Full Self-Driving got a minor feature that’s a massive improvement
“Brake Confirm for the Start Self-Driving button is now defaulted off. When disabled, Start Self-Driving will not require you to press and release the brake to confirm engagement.”
Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite seems to get better with every single release. However, it is also making it more seamless and easier than ever to use for passenger travel, thanks to a recent feature that has flown under the radar.
Tesla started rolling out its v14 iteration of the Full Self-Driving suite a few weeks ago to Early Access Program (EAP) members, and it finally started making its way to the public for the first time earlier this week.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.1 first impressions: Robotaxi-like features arrive
The wide rollout of Tesla v14.1.3 was long-awaited, as its capabilities were flexed by the handful of people lucky to have it. However, those sitting with v13.2.9 were still eager to get to their hands on the new FSD version, especially considering it came with a lot of cool upgrades.
One of which is flying under the radar and not getting as much attention as it should. Although it is a minor feature change from v13, Tesla has made FSD more seamless than ever with a simple fix that it started utilizing with v14.
With v14.1.1, Tesla started rolling out the removal of the “Brake Confirm” feature, which required drivers to touch the brake to activate Full Self-Driving. This is now an optional feature, as it now is defaulted to the off position by the car.
The release notes for the feature state:
“Brake Confirm for the Start Self-Driving button is now defaulted off. When disabled, Start Self-Driving will not require you to press and release the brake to confirm engagement.
You can enable Brake Confirm in Autopilot > Brake Confirm.”
https://t.co/Hpz2VP7aLS pic.twitter.com/SBsjGRmsyd
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 24, 2025
Simply put, you no longer need to touch the brake to confirm your intention to use Full Self-Driving, which is a small but very effective fix.
It makes your car much more active in terms of overall activation, and it is definitely a quicker and more streamlined departure from your current location than ever before.
Here’s a good look at how quick it is:
@teslarati With Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, there is no delay when you start FSD. Press “Start Self-Driving” and you’re on your way #fyp #viral #tesla #teslafsd #fsdv14 ♬ original sound – TESLARATI
The feature is small, but it is very noticeable with your first uses of FSD v14. Eventually, it will become even more streamlined as Tesla solves self-driving and autonomy, as it will require zero human intervention to get started, which means the “Start Self-Driving” button will also be removed.
Tesla Model Y reclaims elusive sales title in competitive market
Tesla dashcam video shows crazy plane crash avoidance maneuver
Tesla Full Self-Driving got a minor feature that’s a massive improvement
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