On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.
Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.
However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.
That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.
In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.
Starlink
In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.
That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.
Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).
Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.
Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.
Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.
Elon Musk
Tesla reveals major info about the Semi as it heads toward ‘mass production’
Some information, like trim levels and their specs were not revealed by Tesla, but now that the Semi is headed toward mass production this year, the company finally revealed those specifics.
Tesla has revealed some major information about the all-electric Semi as it heads toward “mass production,” according to CEO Elon Musk.
The Semi has been working toward a wider production phase after several years of development, pilot programs, and the construction of a dedicated production facility that is specifically catered to the manufacturing of the vehicle.
However, some information, like trim levels and their specs were not revealed by Tesla, but now that the Semi is headed toward mass production this year, the company finally revealed those specifics.
Tesla Semi undergoes major redesign as dedicated factory preps for deliveries
Tesla plans to build a Standard Range and Long Range Trim level of the Semi, and while the range is noted in the company’s newly-released spec list, there is no indication of what battery size will be equipped by them. However, there is a notable weight difference between the two of roughly 3,000 lbs, and the Long Range configuration has a lightning-fast peak charging speed of 1.2 MW.
This information is not available for the Standard Range quite yet.
The spec list is as follows:
- Standard Range:
- 325 miles of range (at 82,000 lbs gross combination weight
- Curb Weight: <20,000
- Energy Consumption: 1.7 kWh per mile
- Powertrain: 3 independent motors on rear axles
- Charging: Up to 60% of range in 30 minutes
- Charge Type: MCS 3.2
- Drive Power: Up to 800 kW
- ePTO (Electric Power Take Off): Up to 25 kW
- Long Range:
- Range: 500 miles (at 82,000 lbs gross combination weight)
- Curb Weight: 23,000 lbs
- Energy Consumption: 1.7 kWh per mile
- Powertrain: 3 independent motors on rear axles
- Charging: Up to 60% of range in 30 minutes
- Charge Type: MCS 3.2
- Peak charging speed: 1.2MW (1,200kW)
- Drive Power: Up to 800 kW
- ePTO (Electric Power Take Off): Up to 25 kW
It is important to keep in mind that the Semi is currently spec’d for local runs, and Tesla has not yet released or developed a sleeper cabin that would be more suitable for longer trips, cross-country hauls, and overnight travel.
Tesla Semi sleeper section and large side storage teased in new video
Instead, the vehicle will be initially used for regional deliveries, as it has in the pilot programs for Pepsi Co. and Frito-Lay for the past several years.
It will enter mass production this year, Musk confirmed on X over the weekend.
Now that the company’s dedicated Semi production facility in Sparks, Nevada, is standing, the timeline seems much more realistic as the vehicle has had its mass manufacturing date adjusted on several occasions.
Ferrari, the Italian supercar maker, has revealed the name, interior, and interface design of its first-ever electric vehicle project, the Luce, initiating a new chapter in the rich history of the company’s automotive books.
This is the first time Ferrari has revealed such intimate details regarding its introductory EV offering, which has been in the realm of possibility for several years.
As more companies continue to take on EV projects, and some recede from them, supercar companies like Ferrari and Lamborghini are preparing to offer electric powertrains, offering super-fast performance and a new era of speed and acceleration.
Luce – a New Chapter in Ferrari
The company said that the name Luce is “more than a name. It is a vision.” Instead of looking at its first EV offering as a means to enter a new era of design, engineering, and imagination. The company did not want to compromise any of its reputation, high standards, or performance with this new project. It sees it as simply a page turn, and not the closing of a book:
“This new naming strategy reflects how the Ferrari Luce marks a significant addition to the Prancing Horse’s line-up, embodying the seamless expression of tradition and innovation. With its cutting-edge technology, unique design, and best-in-class driving thrills, it unites Ferrari’s racing heritage, the timeless spirit of its sports cars, and the evolving reality of contemporary lifestyles. It testifies to Ferrari’s determination to go beyond expectations: to imagine the future, and to dare. Because leading means illuminating the path ahead – and Luce embodies that mindset.”
Ferrari Luce Design
Ferrari collaborated with LoveFrom, a creative collective founded by Sir Jony Ive and Marc Newson. The pair has been working with Ferrari for five years on the Luce design; everything from materials, ergonomics, interface, and user experience has been designed by the two entities.
The big focus with the interior was to offer “a first, tangible insight into the design philosophy…where innovation meets craftsmanship and cutting-edge design. The team focused on perfecting and refining every solution to its purest form — not to reinvent what already works, but to create a new, carefully considered expression of Ferrari.”
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The company also said:
“Ultimately, the design of the Ferrari Luce’s interior is a synthesis of meticulous craftsmanship, respect for tradition, and thoughtful innovation. It offers a new choice for Ferrari enthusiasts – one that honours the past while embracing the future, and exemplifies the brand’s enduring commitment to quality, performance, and cultural significance.”
The appearance of the elements that make up the interior are both an ode to past designs, like the steering wheel, which is a reinterpretation of the iconic 1950s and 1960s wooden three-spoke Nardi wheel, and fresh, new designs, which aim to show the innovation Ferrari is adopting with this new project.
Interior Highlights
Steering Wheel
The Ferrari Luce is a shout-out to the Nardi wheel from the 1950s and 60s. It is constructed of 100% recycled aluminum, and the alloy was developed specifically for the vehicle to “ensure mechanical resistance and a superb surface quality for the anodisation process.”
It weighs 400 grams less than a standard Ferrari steering wheel:
Credit: Ferrari
It features two analogue control modules, ensuring both functionality and clarity, Ferrari said. The carmaker drew inspiration from Formula One single-seaters, and every button has been developed to provide “the most harmonious combination of mechanical and acoustic feedback based on more than 20 evaluation tests with Ferrari test drivers.”
Instrument Cluster and Displays
There are three displays in the Luce — a driver binnacle, control panel, and rear control panel, which have all been “meticulously designed for clarity and purpose.”
The binnacle moves with the steering wheel and is optimized for the driver’s view of the instrumentation and supporting driver performance.
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- Credit: Ferrari
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- Credit: Ferrari
Displays are crafted by Samsung and were specifically designed for the car, using a “world first – three large cutouts strategically reveal the information generated by a second display behind the top panel, creating a fascinating visual depth that captures the eye.”
Samsung Display engineers created an ultra-light, ultra-thin OLED panel for the vehicle.
Credit: Ferrari
Pricing is still what remains a mystery within the Luce project. Past reports have speculated that the price could be at least €500,000, or $535,000.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk pivots SpaceX plans to Moon base before Mars
The shift, Musk explained, is driven by launch cadence and the urgency of securing humanity’s long-term survival beyond Earth, among others.
Elon Musk has clarified that SpaceX is prioritizing the Moon over Mars as the fastest path to establishing a self-growing off-world civilization.
The shift, Musk explained, is driven by launch cadence and the urgency of securing humanity’s long-term survival beyond Earth, among others.
Why the Moon is now SpaceX’s priority
In a series of posts on X, Elon Musk stated that SpaceX is focusing on building a self-growing city on the Moon because it can be achieved significantly faster than a comparable settlement on Mars. As per Musk, a Moon city could possibly be completed in under 10 years, while a similar settlement on Mars would likely require more than 20.
“For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years. The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Musk highlighted that launch windows to Mars only open roughly every 26 months, with a six-month transit time, whereas missions to the Moon can launch approximately every 10 days and arrive in about two days. That difference, Musk stated, allows SpaceX to iterate far more rapidly on infrastructure, logistics, and survival systems.
“The critical path to a self-growing Moon city is faster,” Musk noted in a follow-up post.
Mars still matters, but runs in parallel
Despite the pivot to the Moon, Musk stressed that SpaceX has not abandoned Mars. Instead, Mars development is expected to begin in about five to seven years and proceed alongside the company’s lunar efforts.
Musk explained that SpaceX would continue launching directly from Earth to Mars when possible, rather than routing missions through the Moon, citing limited fuel availability on the lunar surface. The Moon’s role, he stated, is not as a staging point for Mars, but as the fastest achievable location for a self-sustaining off-world civilization.
“The Moon would establish a foothold beyond Earth quickly, to protect life against risk of a natural or manmade disaster on Earth,” Musk wrote.
Tesla reveals major info about the Semi as it heads toward ‘mass production’
Ferrari Luce EV: Italian supercar maker reveals interior and interface design
