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SpaceX’s packed 2022 launch manifest ready to blow 2021 out of the water

(Richard Angle)

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On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.

Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.

However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.

That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.

In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.

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The 16th of 17 dedicated Starlink launches completed in 2021. (SpaceX)

Starlink

In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.

That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.

DART, November 24th. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
Starlink 4-3, December 2nd. (Richard Angle)
IXPE, December 9th. (NASA & Richard Angle)

Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).

Starlink 4-4, December 18th. (SpaceX)
Turksat 5B, December 19th. (Richard Angle)
CRS-24, December 21st. (Richard Angle)

Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.

Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.

Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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The Boring Company accelerates Vegas Loop expansion plans

The Boring Company clears fire safety delays, paving the way to accelerating its Vegas Loop expansion plans.

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Credit: The Boring Company/X

After overcoming fire safety hurdles, the Boring Company is accelerating its Vegas Loop expansion. The project’s progress signals a transformative boost for Sin City’s transportation and tourism.

Elon Musk’s tunneling company, along with The Las Vegas Convention and Visitors Authority (LVCVA) and Clark County, resolved fire safety concerns that delayed new stations.

“It’s new. It’s taken a little time to figure out what the standard should be,” said Steve Hill, LVCVA President and CEO, during last week’s board meeting. “We’ve gotten there. We’re excited about that. We’re ready to expand further, faster, than we have.”

Last month, the company submitted permits for tunnel extensions connecting Encore to a parcel of land owned by Wynn and Caesars Palace. The three tunnels are valued at $600,000 based on country records.

Plans for a Tropicana Loop are also advancing, linking UNLV to MGM Grand, T-Mobile Arena, Allegiant Stadium, Mandalay Bay, and the upcoming Athletics’ ballpark. Downtown extensions from the convention center to the Strat, Fremont Street Experience, and Circa’s Garage Mahal are also in the permitting process.

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“Those are all in process,” Hill noted. “We’ve got machines that are available to be put in the ground. I think we’ve reached a framework for how these projects are going to work and how they’ll be permitted from a safety standpoint, as well as a building standpoint.”

The Boring Company has six boring machines, with three currently active in Las Vegas. Last week, TBC announced that it successfully mined continuously in a Zero-People-in-Tunnel (ZPIT) configuration, enabling it to build more tunnels faster, safer, and at a more affordable rate.

Tunneling under Paradise Road is underway as The Boring Company works on the University Center Loop. The University Center Loop is expected to connect to the Las Vegas Convention Center within two months, linking to the Westgate tunnel. The full Vegas Loop will span 104 stations and 68 miles. Even though The Boring Company’s tunnel network in Las Vegas isn’t nearly finished, it has already become a key attraction in the city.

“It’s such a great attraction for shows that are looking at this building (convention center) and we’re going to be connected to everybody in town,” Hill said. “It’s a real difference-maker.”

A few Vegas Loop stations are already operational, including those connected to Resorts World, Westgate, Encore, and all the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop stations. The Downtown Loop, which connects to the downtown area, and the Riviera Station, the hub that leads to Resorts World with Westgate destinations, are also operational.

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As The Boring Company accelerates the Vegas Loop, its tunnels are poised to redefine mobility and tourism in Las Vegas, blending cutting-edge technology with practical urban solutions.

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Neuralink Blindsight human trials expected to start in the UAE

Neuralink aims to restore vision with its Blindsight BCI implant. First human implant for Blindsight may happen in UAE.

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Neuralink-clinical-trial-recruit-patient-prime-study
(Credit: Neuralink)

During Elon Musk’s interview at the Qatar Economic Forum, he announced that Neuralink aims to implant its Blindsight brain-to-computer interface (BCI) device in a human patient by late 2025 or early 2026.

Blindsight focuses on restoring vision. A few years ago, Musk mentioned that Neuralink’s BCI devices would restore vision for people, even those born blind.

“The first two applications we’re going to aim for in humans are restoring vision, and I think this is notable in that even if someone has never had vision ever, like they were born blind, we believe we can still restore vision. The visual part of the cortex is still there. Even if they’ve never seen before, we’re confident they could see,” Musk said during Neuralink’s Show & Tell in 2022. 

Musk said Blindsight could be implanted into a human patient in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). Neuralink plans to partner with the Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi to implant the first human patient with Blindsight.

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Elon Musk’s neurotechnology company is partnering with the Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi to conduct the first clinical trial of the UAE-PRIME study. Like Neuralink’s PRIME study in the United States, UAE-PRIME will focus on human patients with motor and speech impairments.

Neuralink received Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval to conduct the PRIME and CONVOY studies in the United States. PRIME tests the capabilities of the company’s Link implant to restore or enable motor and speech in participants. Meanwhile, the CONVOY study explores Link’s ability to control assistive robotic devices. Neuralink already has an assistive robotic arm called ARA that could expand patients’ autonomy beyond smart devices.

Blindsight would probably require a separate study from PRIME and CONVOY. As such, Neuralink might need FDA approval in the United States to start human trials for Blindsight. However, Blindsight already received a “breakthrough device” designation from the US FDA.

In April 2025, Neuralink opened its patient registry to participants worldwide. The neurotechnology company has already implanted its Link BCI device into five patients. Earlier this year, Neuralink welcomed one of its first PRIME study participants as the first patient in its CONVOY study.

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Elon Musk just revealed more about Tesla’s June Robotaxi launch

Tesla CEO Elon Musk gave more information about the Robotaxi launch in Austin set for June.

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Steve Jurvetson, CC BY 2.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Tesla CEO Elon Musk just revealed more details about the company’s June Robotaxi launch, which will kick off in Austin.

As of right now, Tesla is still set to push out the first Robotaxi rides in Austin, Texas, in early June. These vehicles will be in short supply at first, as Musk says the company is purposely rolling out the fleet in a slow and controlled fashion to prioritize safety. There will be ten vehicles in the Robotaxi fleet to start.

Tesla Robotaxi deemed a total failure by media — even though it hasn’t been released

However, in an interview with CNBC on Tuesday afternoon, Musk also revealed some other new details, including where in Austin the vehicles will be able to go, how many Robotaxis we could see on public roads within a few months, and other information regarding Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite.

A Controlled Rollout

Tesla has maintained for a few months now that the Robotaxi fleet will be comprised of between 10 and 20 Model Y vehicles in Austin.

The Cybercab, which was unveiled by the company last October, will not be available initially, as those cars will likely be produced in 2026.

Musk said during the CNBC interview that Tesla is doing a low-yield trial at first to initiate a safety-first mentality. It is important for Tesla to launch the Robotaxi fleet in a small manner to keep things in check, at least at first.

As confidence builds and the accuracy of the fleet is ensured, more vehicles will be added to the fleet.

Musk believes there will be 1,000 Robotaxis on the road “in a few months.”

Geofenced to Certain Austin Areas

Tesla will be launching the Robotaxi program in a geofenced fashion that gives the company the ability to control where it goes. Musk says that the areas the Robotaxis will be able to travel to are among the safest neighborhoods and areas in Austin.

This is yet another safety protocol that will ensure the initial riders are not put in dangerous neighborhoods.

Some might be disappointed to hear this because of Tesla’s spoken confidence regarding Robotaxi, but the initial rollout does need to be controlled for safety reasons. An accident or incident of any kind that would put riders’ lives in danger would be catastrophic.

No Driver, No Problem

As the company has rolled out an employee-only version of the Robotaxi program in Austin and the San Francisco Bay Area, some wondered whether the rides would be driverless, as these initial trials for Tesla workers were not. Employee rides featured a human in the driver’s seat to ensure safety.

Tesla says it has launched ride-hailing Robotaxi teaser to employees only

The company did not report whether there were any interventions or not, but it did state that the vehicles traveled over 15,000 miles through 1,500 trips.

Musk confirmed during the interview that there will be no driver in the vehicle when the Robotaxi program launches in June. This will be groundbreaking as it will be the first time that Tesla vehicles will operate on public roads without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Full Self-Driving Licensing

For more than a year, Tesla has indicated that it is in talks with another major automaker regarding the licensing of Full Self-Driving. Many speculated that the company was Ford, but neither it nor Tesla confirmed this.

Musk said today that Tesla has been in touch with “a number of automakers” that have inquired about licensing FSD. Tesla has yet to sign any deal to do so.

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