On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.
Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.
However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.
That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.
In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.
Starlink
In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.
That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.
Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).
Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.
Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.
Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.
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Tesla receives approval for FSD Supervised tests in Sweden
Tesla confirmed that it has been granted permission to test FSD Supervised vehicles across Sweden in a press release.
Tesla has received regulatory approval to begin tests of its Full Self-Driving Supervised system on public roads in Sweden, a notable step in the company’s efforts to secure FSD approval for the wider European market.
FSD Supervised testing in Sweden
Tesla confirmed that it has been granted permission to test FSD Supervised vehicles across Sweden following cooperation with national authorities and local municipalities. The approval covers the Swedish Transport Administration’s entire road network, as well as urban and highways in the Municipality of Nacka.
Tesla shared some insights into its recent FSD approvals in a press release. “The approval shows that cooperation between authorities, municipalities and businesses enables technological leaps and Nacka Municipality is the first to become part of the transport system of the future. The fact that the driving of the future is also being tested on Swedish roads is an important step in the development towards autonomy in real everyday traffic,” the company noted.
With approval secured for FSD tests, Tesla can now evaluate the system’s performance in diverse environments, including dense urban areas and high-speed roadways across Sweden, as noted in a report from Allt Om Elbil. Tesla highlighted that the continued development of advanced driver assistance systems is expected to pave the way for improved traffic safety, increased accessibility, and lower emissions, particularly in populated city centers.
Tesla FSD Supervised Europe rollout
FSD Supervised is already available to drivers in several global markets, including Australia, Canada, China, Mexico, New Zealand, and the United States. The system is capable of handling city and highway driving tasks such as steering, acceleration, braking, and lane changes, though it still requires drivers to supervise the vehicle’s operations.
Tesla has stated that FSD Supervised has accumulated extensive driving data from its existing markets. In Europe, however, deployment remains subject to regulatory approval, with Tesla currently awaiting clearance from relevant authorities.
The company reiterated that it expects to start rolling out FSD Supervised to European customers in early 2026, pending approvals. It would then be unsurprising if the company secures approvals for FSD tests in other European territories in the coming months.
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Tesla owners in Sweden get direct attention from pro-union groups
As part of their efforts, the group has started distributing informational leaflets to Tesla vehicles across Stockholm, urging them to pressure the electric vehicle maker to sign a collective agreement.
Amid Tesla Sweden’s ongoing conflict with trade union IF Metall, a group of pro-union supporters has begun directing their attention to actual Tesla owners.
As part of their efforts, the group has started distributing informational leaflets to Tesla vehicles across Stockholm, urging them to pressure the electric vehicle maker to sign a collective agreement.
Leaflets on parked Tesla vehicles
As noted in a Dagens Arbete (DA) report, participants of the protest place yellow information slips on parked Tesla vehicles across parts of Stockholm. The slips resemble parking notices that contain information related to the unions’ ongoing strike against Tesla Sweden.
Participants involved in the activity said the leaflets were intended to inform consumers rather than target individual owners. The action was carried out in public areas, with leaflets placed on windshields of parked vehicles. When vehicle owners are present, organizers said they provide verbal explanations of the labor dispute.
Tesla has not commented publicly about the matter as of writing.
Recurring demonstrations against Tesla
The leaflet distribution effort follows weekly demonstrations that have taken place outside Tesla’s workshop and office in Upplands Väsby, where protesters typically gather to express support for a collective agreement. Those demonstrations have included informational outreach to customers and workers and, at times, police presence, according to prior reporting.
In a comment, one of the protesters stated that even Tesla owners must be concerned about the unions’ conflict with the electric vehicle maker. “You may think it doesn’t concern you, as you only drive a car. But it does, as we all have a responsibility for the rules in Sweden.
“We are not looking to hunt down individual Tesla owners. Rather, this is a way to spread opinion and increase pressure on Tesla. It should have some impact if several Tesla owners come in and say that you should sign a collective agreement,” one of the protesters stated.
Tesla has landed a massive deal to expand its charging infrastructure for heavy-duty electric trucks — and not just theirs, but all manufacturers.
Tesla entered an agreement with Pilot Travel Centers, the largest operator of travel centers in the United States. Tesla’s Semi Chargers, which are used to charge Class 8 electric trucks, will be responsible for providing energy to various vehicles from a variety of manufacturers.
The first sites are expected to open later this Summer, and will be built at select locations along I-5 and I-10, major routes for commercial vehicles and significant logistics companies. The chargers will be available in California, Georgia, Nevada, New Mexico, and Texas.
Each station will have between four and eight chargers, delivering up to 1.2 megawatts of power at each stall.
The project is the latest in Tesla’s plans to expand Semi Charging availability. The effort is being put forth to create more opportunities for the development of sustainable logistics.
Senior Vice President of Alternative Fuels at Pilot, Shannon Sturgil, said:
“Helping to shape the future of energy is a strategic pillar in meeting the needs of our guests and the North American transportation industry. Heavy-duty charging is yet another extension of our exploration into alternative fuel offerings, and we’re happy to partner with a leader in the space that provides turnkey solutions and deploys them quickly.”
Tesla currently has 46 public Semi Charger sites in progress or planned across the United States, mostly positioned along major trucking routes and industrial areas. Perhaps the biggest bottleneck with owning an EV early on was charging availability, and that is no different with electric Class 8 trucks. They simply need an area to charge.
Tesla is spearheading the effort to expand Semicharging availability, and the latest partnership with Pilot shows the company has allies in the program.
The company plans to build 50,000 units of the Tesla Semi in the coming years, and with early adopters like PepsiCo, DHL, and others already contributing millions of miles of data, fleets are going to need reliable public charging.
🚨 Pilot working with Tesla to install and expand Semi Chargers is a perfect example of two industry leaders working together for the greater good.
As more commerce companies expand into EVs, Semi Charger will be more commonly available for electrified fleets, making efforts… pic.twitter.com/VPLIYyq15b
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 27, 2026
Tesla is partnering with other companies for the development of the Semi program, most notably, a conglomeration with Uber was announced last year.
Tesla lands new partnership with Uber as Semi takes center stage
The ride-sharing platform plans to launch the Dedicated EV Fleet Accelerator Program, which it calls a “first-of-its-kind buyer’s program designed to make electric freight more affordable and accessible by addressing key adoption barriers.”
The Semi is one of several projects that will take Tesla into a completely different realm. Along with Optimus and its growing Energy division, the Semi will expand Tesla to new heights, and its prioritization of charging infrastructure.
Tesla receives approval for FSD Supervised tests in Sweden
Tesla owners in Sweden get direct attention from pro-union groups
