On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.
Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.
However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.
That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.
In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.
Starlink
In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.
That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.
Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).
Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.
Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.
Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.
Elon Musk
The Starship V3 static fire everyone was waiting for just happened
SpaceX fired all 33 Raptor 3 engines on Starship V3 today clearing the path for Flight 12.
SpaceX is that much closer to launching their next-gen Starship after completing today’s full duration static fire of all 33 Raptor 3 engines out of Starbase, Texas. This marks the most powerful rocket engine test ever conducted and a direct signal that Flight 12, the maiden voyage of Starship V3, is imminent. SpaceX confirmed the test on X, posting that the full duration firing was completed ahead of the vehicle’s next flight test.
The road to today started on March 16, when Booster 19 completed a shorter 10-engine static fire, also at the newly constructed Pad 2. That test ended early due to a ground systems issue but confirmed all installed Raptor 3 engines started cleanly. Booster 19 returned to the Mega Bay, received its remaining 23 engines for a full complement of 33, and rolled back out this week for the complete test campaign. Musk confirmed earlier this month that Flight 12 is now 4 to 6 weeks away.
Countdown: America is going back to the Moon and SpaceX holds the key to what comes after
The numbers behind today’s test are genuinely hard to put in context. Each Raptor 3 engine produces roughly 280 tons of thrust, and with all 33 firing simultaneously, this generates approximately 9,240 tons of combined thrust, more than any rocket in history. For context, that’s enough thrust to lift the entire Empire State Building, and then some. V3 stands 408 feet tall and can carry over 100 tons to low Earth orbit in a fully reusable configuration. The V2 generation topped out at around 35 tons.
Historically, a successful full-duration static fire is the last major ground milestone before launch. SpaceX has followed this pattern with every Starship iteration since the program began in 2023. Musk has been direct about the ambition behind all of it. “I am highly confident that the V3 design will achieve full reusability,” he wrote on X earlier this year. Full reusability of both stages is the foundation of SpaceX’s plan to make regular flights to the Moon and Mars economically viable. Today’s test brings that goal one significant step closer.
Starship V3 delivers on two most critical promises of full reusability and in-orbit refueling. The reusability case is straightforward, and one we have seen with Falcon 9 wherein the rocket can fly again within a day rather than building a new one for every mission. It’s the only economic model that makes frequent lunar cargo runs viable. The in-orbit refueling piece is less obvious but equally essential. To reach the Moon with enough payload, Starship requires roughly ten dedicated tanker flights to fuel up a propellant depot in low Earth orbit before it can even begin its journey to the lunar surface. That capability has never been demonstrated at scale, and Flight 12 is the first step toward proving it works. As Teslarati reported, NASA’s Artemis II crew completed a historic lunar flyby earlier this month, the first humans to travel beyond low Earth orbit since 1972, but getting astronauts to actually land and eventually supply a permanent Moon base requires a cargo pipeline that only a fully reusable, refuelable Starship V3 can deliver at the volume and cost NASA’s plans demand.
SpaceX Starship full duration static fire on April 14, 2026 from Starbase, Texas (Credit: SpaceX)
News
Tesla Full Self-Driving shows stunning maneuver in Europe to silence skeptics
In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.
Tesla Full Self-Driving, fresh on the heels of its approval for operation on European roads for the first time, showed off a stunning maneuver that will certainly silence any skeptics on the continent.
Fresh off its approval in the Netherlands, Full Self-Driving is working toward a significant expansion into more parts of Europe.
In a striking demonstration of autonomous driving prowess, Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) system recently showcased its capabilities on the narrow rural roads of the Netherlands. Captured in two in-car videos, the system encountered scenarios that would challenge even the most experienced human drivers.
In the first clip, a wide tractor occupied more than half the lane on a tight two-way road. Rather than braking abruptly or forcing a collision risk, FSD smoothly edged the vehicle onto the adjacent bike path—using the extra space with precision—before seamlessly returning to the lane once clear.
The second clip was equally demanding: while overtaking a group of cyclists, an oncoming car approached at speed.
FSD maintained a safe, minimal buffer to the cyclists while timing the pass perfectly, avoiding any swerve or hesitation that could unsettle passengers or other road users.
People wonder if FSD is safe on narrow European roads. Well have a look what it did when a tractor took up more than half of the road or when overtaking bicycles with fast oncoming traffic. pic.twitter.com/z37Csa09sP
— Chanan Bos (@ChananBos) April 14, 2026
This maneuver highlights FSD’s advanced spatial reasoning and predictive planning. On roads often under three meters wide, with no room for error, the system calculated available clearance in real time, incorporated shoulder and path geometry, and executed a controlled deviation without compromising safety.
It treated the bike path as a legitimate extension of navigable space, something many drivers might hesitate to do, while respecting Dutch road norms and cyclist priority.
Such feats align closely with a growing library of impressive FSD maneuvers documented on camera worldwide.
In urban Amsterdam, for instance, FSD has navigated the world’s densest cyclist environments, weaving through hundreds of unpredictable bike movements on canal-side streets with tram tracks and pedestrians.
One uncut drive showed it yielding smoothly at crossings, overtaking where needed, and even handling a near-perfect auto-park in a tight residential spot, demonstrating the same low-speed precision seen in the rural clips.
Teslas using FSD have tackled turbo roundabouts in the Netherlands, complex multi-lane circles notorious for geometry challenges, merging confidently while yielding to traffic. Similar clips depict smooth handling of construction zones, emergency vehicle pull-overs, and gated parking barriers, where the car stops precisely, waits for clearance, and proceeds without driver input.
Collectively, these examples illustrate FSD’s evolution toward handling the unpredictable.
The rural Netherlands maneuvers aren’t isolated. Instead, they reflect a pattern of spatial awareness, cyclist deference, and traffic anticipation seen from city streets to highways.
As FSD continues refining through real-world data, videos like this one are certainly building a compelling case for its readiness on Europe’s varied roads.
News
Tesla utilizes its ‘Rave Cave’ for new awesome safety feature
Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.
Tesla is utilizing its ‘Rave Cave’ for an awesome new safety feature that will arrive with the upcoming Spring Update for 2026.
Part of the massive interior overhaul of both the Model 3 “Highland” and Model Y “Juniper” was the addition of interior accent lighting to help bring out the mood of the vehicle, increase the customization of the interior, and to create a unique listening experience.
Tesla added a Sync Lights feature that will strobe the accent strips with the beat of the music.
It is one of the most unique and one of the coolest non-functional features of a Tesla, as it does not improve the driving of the vehicle, but makes it a cool and personal addition to the interior.
However, Tesla is going to take it one step further, as the Rave Cave lights will now be used for blind spot recognition. This feature will be added as the Spring 2026 Update starts to roll out.
A lot of CRAZY new features coming with Tesla’s 2026 Spring Update, including a new FSD app!
– Self-Driving App (AI4 hardware): New app in App Launcher > Self-Driving for one-tap FSD subscriptions, activation guides, and ongoing stats.
– “Hey Grok”: Voice-activated Grok with… https://t.co/ljeYPlq9Qt— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) April 13, 2026
Tesla writes:
“Accent lights now turn red when an object is in your blind spot and your turn signal is engaged, or when an approaching object is detected while parked.”
This neat new safety feature will now increase the likelihood of a driver, who is operating their Tesla manually, of seeing the blind spot warnings that are currently available on the A pillar and on the center touchscreen.
These new alerts will now warn drivers of cross traffic as they back out of a parking space with little to no visibility of what is coming. It is a great new addition that will only increase the safety of the vehicles, while also utilizing something that is already installed in these specific Model 3 and Model Y units.
The Model 3 and Model Y were the central focus of the Spring 2026 Update, especially considering the fact that the Model S and Model X are basically gone, with only a few hundred units left. Additionally, Tesla included new Immersive Sound and Car Visualization for the Model 3 and Model Y specifically in this new update.
The Starship V3 static fire everyone was waiting for just happened
Tesla Full Self-Driving shows stunning maneuver in Europe to silence skeptics
