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SpaceX’s packed 2022 launch manifest ready to blow 2021 out of the water

(Richard Angle)

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On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.

Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.

However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.

That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.

In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.

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The 16th of 17 dedicated Starlink launches completed in 2021. (SpaceX)

Starlink

In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.

That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.

DART, November 24th. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
Starlink 4-3, December 2nd. (Richard Angle)
IXPE, December 9th. (NASA & Richard Angle)

Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).

Starlink 4-4, December 18th. (SpaceX)
Turksat 5B, December 19th. (Richard Angle)
CRS-24, December 21st. (Richard Angle)

Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.

Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.

Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla makes big change to encourage Full Self-Driving purchases

Tesla Full Self-Driving was recently proven to be about ten times safer than a human driver in terms of accident frequency.

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Credit: Whole Mars Blog | X

Tesla has made a big change to its Online Design Studio, hoping to encourage car buyers to purchase Full Self-Driving with their vehicles.

Now, when you look at ordering a car on Tesla’s website, the portion of the page that formerly showed a render of Full Self-Driving capabilities has been replaced by a compilation of the suite’s performance in a variety of challenging scenarios.

It’s a great way to show off FSD’s impressive ability to work through road conditions that can even stump human drivers.

The move is much better than what the page previously illustrated. Now, people can see the true capabilities of the FSD suite and what it could do to change their perspective on how vehicles can be. Instead of a vessel of transportation, FSD turns cars into a semi-autonomous mode of travel.

Tesla Full Self-Driving is statistically very safe, logging about ten times the number of miles between accidents as human drivers, based on recent data the company released.

Tesla Q2 2025 vehicle safety report proves FSD makes driving almost 10X safer

It is available for purchase in two different ways: an outright purchase for $8,000 or in a monthly subscription for $99. This enables the software to essentially do a vast majority of the legwork of driving. Drivers must keep their eyes on the road and be prepared to take over if an intervention is needed.

However, FSD has been proven to be a very accurate and safe way to travel. Tesla recently released a video of a drive from the Bay Area to Los Angeles, a nearly seven-hour trip, under FSD without a single intervention ever needed:

Tesla flexes its most impressive and longest Full Self-Driving demo yet

From a personal perspective, Tesla Full Self-Driving is a great way to travel because it truly takes a lot of the stress out of driving. In the past, I’ve used it during weekend Demo Drives to navigate around my town to see if it could handle some of the tougher traffic in my area. It became such an amazing and convenient alternative that when I went back to my car, I truly missed the advantage of having it.

I took a Tesla Model Y weekend-long Demo Drive – Here’s what I learned

However, I am picking up my Tesla Model Y this coming weekend and will enjoy it for the free three months before subscribing to the monthly program.

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Tesla offers new feature to save battery and reduce phantom drain

While in Low Power Mode, your vehicle continues to use energy for standby functions, screen activity, and Tesla app interactions. In cold weather, available energy may drop more quickly.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is offering a new feature to help owners save battery and reduce phantom drain, an issue that some have complained of with their cars.

While Teslas are some of the most efficient EVs on the market, they utilize energy and battery life when they’re parked to keep certain features, like Sentry Mode, Summon Standby, and others, active in preparation for potential events that occur.

Keeping these features ready to perform utilizes energy, and if your car is parked at an airport where it could be sitting stagnant for a few days, the battery percentage could start to dwindle pretty significantly.

Because of this, Tesla is rolling out a new feature called “Low Power Mode,” which will automatically disable a handful of settings to combat battery dwindling and phantom battery drain.

Tesla writes in the release notes for the feature:

“When Low Power Mode is enabled, your vehicle will conserve energy by automatically disabling the following features:

    • Sentry Mode
    • Summon Standby
    • Outlets
    • Keep Accessory Power On
    • Keep Climate On and Camp Mode
    • Scheduled Preconditioning
    • Cabin Overheat Protection

While charging with Low Power Mode enabled:

    • Sentry Mode and accessory power will remain available
    • Keep Climate On and Camp Mode are only available when Supercharging

While in Low Power Mode, your vehicle continues to use energy for standby functions, screen activity, and Tesla app interactions. In cold weather, available energy may drop more quickly.”

This feature seemed to be a reaction to a past issue that an owner had as their Cybertruck continued to utilize energy even though the pickup was parked at an airport and the owner was in Japan. The Cybertruck had utilized a lot of energy to keep standby functions active, which left the owner in an interesting spot when they returned.

CEO Elon Musk stepped in, and it seems this feature might have been a reaction to that situation. This is an ideal thing to use if you’re looking to conserve your battery’s state of charge.

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Tesla is bringing back something it took from the Model 3…for a price

“Modify your Model 3 by replacing the turn signal buttons on your steering wheel with turn signal stalks. This modification is included in the purchase price and is installed by a Tesla Service Center.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is bringing back the Model 3’s turn signal stalk in China after removing the part with the refresh of the all-electric sedan early last year.

However, it is going to cost you.

In 2024, Tesla launched the Model 3 “Highland,” a refreshed version of the vehicle that included several large-scale changes. One of the most noticeable was the lack of a turn signal stalk, something the company chose to remove and instead implement turn signal buttons on the steering wheel.

The buttons were met with mixed reviews, as some drivers complained that it was too difficult to get used to them. Others had no problem with the change, noting that it was slightly more convenient for them or that they enjoyed the minimalistic look.

Now, Tesla is offering Model 3 owners in China the opportunity to replace the stalk for a price of ¥ 2,499, or about $350:

“Modify your Model 3 by replacing the turn signal buttons on your steering wheel with turn signal stalks. This modification is included in the purchase price and is installed by a Tesla Service Center.”

Tesla notes on its website that the service is available for Model 3 vehicles without stalks manufactured after February 7, 2025. Any car without a stalk that was manufactured before that date will have the service available to them in the future.

Installation can be performed at a Service Center or by the owner. However, Tesla notes that it is not responsible for any damages resulting from self-installation and recommends that the part be put in by an employee.

The cockpit of the Tesla lineup has been under intense scrutiny by the company in recent years. After a few changes to things like the stalk, steering wheel shape, and others, Tesla has usually given drivers the chance to have things reverted back to their preferences if they want.

They did this for the Model S and Model X a few years ago after implementing the yoke steering wheel.

Tesla Steering Wheel Retrofits have started, and it’s easy to get rid of your yoke

The stalk was not supposed to be removed from the Model 3 and Model Y, but Tesla chose to do so with the refresh last year.

It seems the minimalization of the cockpit, overall, is a move that prepares drivers for autonomy, as eventually, Teslas will be void of pedals, steering wheels, and any other apparatus that are used to control the car.

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