On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.
Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.
However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.
That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.
In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.
Starlink
In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.
That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.
Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).
Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.
Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.
Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.
Tesla is adjusting one key detail of Robotaxi operations in Austin: service hours.
Tesla’s Robotaxi platform in Austin has been active since late June and has been running smoothly since then. It has its limits, as Tesla has set hours that Robotaxis can operate, as well as a distinct Service Area, also known as a geofence, which has expanded three times already.
While the geofence is currently approximately 170 square miles in size, Tesla has recently enabled freeway drives, which also necessitated an adjustment to the company’s strategy with its “Safety Monitors.”
Tesla explains why Robotaxis now have safety monitors in the driver’s seat
Traditionally, they sit in the passenger’s seat. During highway driving, they move to the driver’s seat.
These are just a few adjustments that have been made over the past two and a half months. Now, Tesla is adjusting the service hours of Robotaxi operation in Austin, but only slightly.
Tesla will now operate its Robotaxi ride-hailing service from 6 a.m. to 2 a.m., extending the hours by two hours. It previously shut down at midnight.
🚨 Tesla Robotaxi operation in Austin now will end at 2 a.m., a two-hour extension from its previous end time of midnight.
Its new service hours are now 6 a.m. to 2 a.m. local time pic.twitter.com/wXdYO6ARPB
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 13, 2025
Tesla has implemented a variety of safeguards to ensure riders and drivers are safe during Robotaxi rides, and they have made it a point to adjust things when they feel confident that it will not cause any issues.
Many people have been critical of Robotaxi, especially because a person sits in the front of the car.
However, an accident or some type of mistake could do more damage to the autonomous travel sector than anything else. This would not just impact Tesla, but any company operating an autonomous ride-hailing service in the country.
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Tesla Model Y ownership two weeks in: what I love and what I don’t
With any new car, I don’t really find things I dislike within the first few months; the novelty of a shiny new vehicle usually wears off eventually.
I am officially two weeks into Tesla ownership, having picked up my Model Y Long Range All-Wheel-Drive on Saturday, August 30. I have many things I really love, and I’ll do my best to come up with a few things I don’t, although I find that to be very difficult currently.
With any new car, I don’t really find things I dislike within the first few months; the novelty of a shiny new vehicle usually wears off eventually. In the past, I’ve had a car I only kept for nine months, but I loved it for the first two months. I am sure down the road, some things about the Tesla will bother me, but right now, I don’t have too much to complain about.
As for the things I love, I’ll try to keep it to just five, and as I continue to write about my ownership experience in the coming months, I’ll see if these things change.
A Quick Rundown
In the two weeks I have had my new Model Y, I have driven 783 miles. I have driven it manually, used Full Self-Driving, navigated tight city streets in Baltimore, and driven spiritedly on the winding back roads of Pennsylvania.
I traded my ICE vehicle for a Tesla Model Y: here’s how it went
I have had the opportunity to put it to the test in a variety of ways, and I feel like I have a great idea of this car and how it handles and drives just two weeks in.
Here’s my vehicle ownership lineage:
’98 VW Jetta K2 > 2002 Ford Taurus > 2008 Ford Escape Hybrid > 2019 Honda Civic > 2021 Ford Bronco Sport > 2026 Tesla Model Y https://t.co/BXTC9XThwe
— Joey Klender (@KlenderJoey) September 2, 2025
What I Love About My Tesla Model Y
I am only going to pick a handful of things, but do not take this list as a complete one. I truly have so many things I love about this car, but I want to mention the ones that are not necessarily “novelties.” I love the A/C seats, but it’s not something I feel deserves a mention here, because it would not likely sway someone to consider the car.
Instead, I want to highlight what I feel are things that truly set the Model Y apart from cars I’ve had in the past.
Tesla Full Self-Driving
Available on all Teslas, Full Self-Driving is something I use every day. It is not only a convenience thing, but it is also truly a fun feature to track improvements, and it’s been fun to show a lot of my friends who are not familiar with its capabilities just how safe and impressive it is.
My Fiancè and I have watched Full Self-Driving make slight changes in performance in the two weeks we’ve been using it. I tracked one instance on a Pennsylvania back road when the car stopped at an “Except Right Turn” Stop Sign. Initially, the car stopped, holding up traffic behind it. Just days later, FSD proceeded through that same Stop Sign cautiously, but without coming to a complete stop, which is the proper way to navigate through it.
I took the same route home last night as I did when I took this drive last week. FSD has *already* improved.
✅ Model Y did not stop at the “Except Right Turn” Stop Sign, and instead proceeded through at a confident, yet careful rate of speed in a safe manner
I believe the… https://t.co/E38lsipT46
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) September 11, 2025
This quick adjustment was very impressive, and it even caught the attention of my better half. I will say it has been very fun to watch her fall in love with this car after being very reluctant to watch me get rid of our Bronco Sport.
The Handling
Tesla refined the suspension with the new Model Y, and you can surely feel it. Coming from a larger SUV, I did miss being able to really push the limits of my car on a beautiful, sunny, and warm day, and the winding roads of Pennsylvania are calling me for a drive.
The way this car hugs turns and genuinely puts a smile on my face when I’m pushing it. Dare I say I like driving it more than I like it driving me?
Interior Storage
One of my biggest complaints about my Bronco Sport was that, despite being an SUV, it felt smaller than it was supposed to be. I had trouble fitting golf bags and luggage in the back without having other storage options. It led me to install a roof rack and get a cargo container. I would have to put longer clubs in the back seat so the bags could lie without clubs getting bent.
I don’t seem to have a significant problem with this in the Model Y. Plus, the frunk and the additional cargo under the floor of the trunk are great for bags and other things. It offers 10 cubic feet more of space with the seats down than the Bronco Sport does.
The Entertainment
Not only is the sound system in this car absolutely unbelievable, but I also really enjoy the Tesla Theater, which is really something that has revolutionized how we spend our time in the car.
Charging at the Superchargers has become a new way for us to spend time together. Even if it’s just 30 minutes, my Fiancé’s busy work schedule at the hospital means we don’t get to spend as much time together as we would like. The charging lets us go grab a snack, watch a movie or show in the car, and just be with each other.
It’s honestly my favorite thing about the car so far, that we’ve both truly enjoyed what it has done for us. It put a smile on my face to hear her say, “It’s just so much fun to be in this car” last night when we met friends for dinner.
What I Don’t Love
I’m just going to get nitpicky here, because I don’t have much to complain about.
The Paint
I love the Diamond Black, and it gets so many compliments. However, it sure does get dirty fast. I feel like I’m going to have to invest in a car wash membership or set aside time each week to clean it. This is not a Tesla-specific problem, of course.
Climate Control
Another “first-world problem,” but sometimes I do have trouble getting the A/C to go right where I need it. I feel like, to feel the air, I have to put the fan speed to 7 or higher.
Swing Mode has been a real savior in this sense, but my Fiancè sometimes complains that my cold air will hit her when she’s already freezing. I think this is just something I need to get used to, as the vents are significantly different than any other car. It’s really not that bad, but it is worth mentioning that we’ve both said we are still adjusting to it early on.
Tesla has ended the production and sale of a Cybertruck trim level that had many people scratching their heads. The move comes after slow sales on the trim, as many Cybertruck buyers opted for other configurations that seemed to be a better value for the money.
On Friday, Tesla officially brought closure to the Long Range Rear-Wheel-Drive configuration of the Cybertruck, a build that was introduced earlier this year at a lower price point than its All-Wheel-Drive counterparts, but missed many of the key features that made the Cybertruck, the Cybertruck.
Rolling the variant out at a price of $69,990, only $10,000 less than that of the All-Wheel-Drive configuration. However, it was also void of many other things:
- Single Motor
- Textile Seats instead of Leather
- 7-Speaker Audio System instead of 15-Speakers
- No Rear Touchscreen
- No Powered Tonneau Cover for Truck Bed
- No 120v/240v outlets
For $79,990, just $10,000 more, owners could receive all of these premium features, plus a more capable All-Wheel-Drive powertrain, which truly made this Rear-Wheel-Drive build of the Cybertruck a sitting duck for criticism.
It was simply not enough meat for the price, and demand was evidently low. From those I spoke to, orders were few and far between; people simply found more value in the All-Wheel-Drive configuration based solely on the additional motor. Adding all the premium interior and functionality features made it a no-brainer.
In a way, it seems Tesla was overly optimistic about the Rear-Wheel-Drive configuration of the Cybertruck, but even after it was launched, plenty of loyal fans were confused by it:
AWD worth $10k more imo
— Zack (@BLKMDL3) April 11, 2025
Sorry. It just isn’t worth that much. I would buy the dual motor at that price, before incentives. I guess I’ll just have to wait longer. The old F150 still runs good. There is nothing compelling at that price point.
— Cat Herder (@Christo87184657) April 11, 2025
The Cybertruck is a great vehicle, and it is among the best vehicles in the company’s lineup. However, it really missed a price point for the Rear-Wheel-Drive configuration that was effective enough to drive people toward it. Many said they would have considered it if Tesla could have brought the price down into the high $40,000 or low $50,000 range.
I took a Tesla Cybertruck weekend Demo Drive – Here’s what I learned
It seems it just did not have the appeal to keep up. Now, Tesla has the All-Wheel-Drive and Cyberbeast for $72,490 and $114,990, respectively.
Tesla adjusts one key detail of Robotaxi operations in Austin
Tesla Model Y ownership two weeks in: what I love and what I don’t
Tesla brings closure to head-scratching Cybertruck trim
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