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SpaceX’s packed 2022 launch manifest ready to blow 2021 out of the water

(Richard Angle)

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On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.

Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.

However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.

That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.

In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.

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The 16th of 17 dedicated Starlink launches completed in 2021. (SpaceX)

Starlink

In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.

That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.

DART, November 24th. (NASA/Bill Ingalls)
Starlink 4-3, December 2nd. (Richard Angle)
IXPE, December 9th. (NASA & Richard Angle)

Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).

Starlink 4-4, December 18th. (SpaceX)
Turksat 5B, December 19th. (Richard Angle)
CRS-24, December 21st. (Richard Angle)

Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.

Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.

Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving’s European launch frustrations revealed by Elon Musk

Tesla plans to launch Full Self-Driving in Europe later this year, but regulatory bodies are proving to make it a bigger challenge than it needs to be.

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Credit: Tesla Europe and Middle East | X

Tesla Full Self-Driving is set to launch in Europe in the future, but the region’s governing bodies are not giving the suite any chance to move forward, according to CEO Elon Musk, who blames the regulatory processes for robbing citizens of a safer mode of travel.

The automaker revealed late last year that it planned to bring Full Self-Driving to Europe sometime in 2025. However, Musk said that the launch of the suite is being continuously prolonged by both individual and European Union officials, dragging their feet with approvals.

In a post on X on Wednesday, Musk said the company is still dealing with and waiting for approvals from both the Dutch government and the EU’s governing officials, giving an indication that some progress has been made, but ultimately, there are still some bodies that are taking their time:

He continued by stating that the delays are “very frustrating” and they “hurt the safety of people in Europe” because of Autopilot’s statistical prowess, which shows it is much safer than human drivers.

Tesla is readying for the launch of a completely driverless Robotaxi platform in the U.S., which is set to occur in the coming days. While the initial rollout of the platform will be reserved for a select few, public rides are slated for June 22, meaning anyone will be able to come to Austin and hail a Tesla Robotaxi through the company’s smartphone app.

The first Robotaxi without a driver was spotted in Austin yesterday and shared on X:

First Tesla driverless robotaxi spotted in the wild in Austin, TX

Musk dropped several hints that the Robotaxi launch, which has been rumored for June 12, is imminent. For now, the operation will take place in Austin and will eventually expand, likely to California next, as noted in past reports. The City’s official website confirmed that Tesla gained a license as an Autonomous Vehicle operator in the City of Austin earlier this week.

Tesla applied for a similar license in California earlier this year.

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Energy

Tesla Lathrop Megafactory celebrates massive Megapack battery milestone

The Tesla Megapack is the backbone of Tesla Energy’s battery deployments.

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Credit: Tesla Megapack/X

The Tesla Lathrop Megafactory recently achieved a new milestone. As per the official Tesla Megapack account on X, the Lathrop Megafactory has produced its 15,000th Megapack 2 XL battery.

15,000 Megapack Batteries

Tesla celebrated the milestone with a photo of the Lathrop Megafactory team posing with a freshly produced Megapack battery. To commemorate the event, the team held balloons that spelled out “15,000” as they posed for the photo.

The Tesla Megapack is the backbone of Tesla Energy’s battery deployments. Designed for grid-scale applications, each Megapack offers 3.9 MWh of energy and 1.9 MW of power. The battery is extremely scalable, making it perfect for massive energy storage projects.

https://twitter.com/Tesla_Megapack/status/1932578971700638203

More Megafactories

The Lathrop Megafactory is Tesla’s first dedicated facility for its flagship battery storage system. It currently stands as the largest utility-scale battery factory in North America. The facility is capable of producing 10,000 Megapack batteries every year, equal to 40 GWh of clean energy storage.

Thanks to the success of the Megapack, Tesla has expanded its energy business by building and launching the Shanghai Megafactory, which is also expected to produce 40 GWh of energy storage per year. The ramp of the Shanghai Megafactory is quite impressive, with Tesla noting in its Q1 2025 Update Letter that the Shanghai Megafactory managed to produce over 100 Megapack batteries in the first quarter alone.

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Tesla Energy’s Potential

During the first quarter earnings call, CEO Elon Musk stated that the Megapack is extremely valuable to the energy industry. 

“The Megapack enables utility companies to output far more total energy than would otherwise be the case… This is a massive unlock on total energy output of any given grid over the course of a year. And utility companies are beginning to realize this and are buying in our Megapacks at scale,” Musk said.

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Tesla launches “TeslaVision” video contest to celebrate Model Y deliveries

The program marks a revival of Tesla’s popular Project Loveday initiative back in 2017.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla has announced the TeslaVision Contest, a global video showcase inviting fans and owners to highlight the impact of the company’s vehicles on people. 

The program marks a revival of its Project Loveday initiative in 2017, which was extremely well-received by the electric vehicle community. 

A Contest to Celebrate the New Model Y

As per the TeslaVision contest’s official website, the program is being rolled out to commemorate the launch and deliveries of the new Model Y across all continents. Thus, the contest could be seen as a global celebration and showcase of owners and fans who made Tesla the household brand that it has become today.

Participants are tasked with creating a 90-second or shorter video demonstrating how Tesla vehicles provide “more freedom, more safety, more fun, more convenience.” Submissions must be uploaded to YouTube and shared on X and Instagram with the tag @Tesla and the phrase “TeslaVision contest.” 

Videos must align with Tesla’s mission to accelerate sustainable energy, be suitable for all ages, and avoid references to non-Tesla brands. English text or voice-overs are required, and entrants must relinquish rights to their content for Tesla’s commercial use.

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https://twitter.com/Tesla/status/1932559030892802153

A Big Prize Awaits

When Tesla launched Project Loveday in 2017, the company noted that the contest’s winner would receive an all-expenses paid invitation to an upcoming Tesla product launch. For TeslaVision, the grand prize is a lot more tangible, with the winner receiving a new Model Y AWD. They will also get an all-expenses-paid trip to Gigafactory Texas. Second and third-place winners will also receive a Giga Texas tour. 

Finalists will be selected based on creativity, originality, relevance to the prompt, and entertainment value. Tesla will shortlist 100 videos, with the top 10 subject to public voting to influence the final judging. The contest is open to legal residents of the United States, Mexico, and Canada, aged 18 or older, with a valid driver’s license and Tesla account. No purchase is necessary, though entries are limited to just one per person. 

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