On the heels of SpaceX’s last launch of 2021, which rounded out a record-breaking year and marked the 100th successful Falcon booster landing, the time has come to look at what the new year might hold for the world’s most prolific commercial launch provider and its workhorse rockets.
Thanks in part to a number of delays that pushed a significant portion of SpaceX’s planned 2021 launches into next year, the company’s 2022 launch manifest is bigger than any other year in its already impressive history. In 2021, having completed 31 orbital launches, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 was the single most launched rocket in the world – beating out several Russian and Chinese rockets operated by each country’s national space agency. On its own, Falcon 9 launched six more times than the entire country of Russia.
However, despite how impressive SpaceX’s performance was this year, all evidence suggests that 2022 could see almost twice as many Falcon launches as 2021.
That information comes from unofficial manifests maintained by fans and followers, who collate dozens of different reports, press releases, and rumors to create a rough picture of upcoming launch plans. Of course, the farther away any given launch is; the more likely it will be significantly delayed. Even official information from SpaceX itself would not be able to accurately predict how many launches it will conduct over a year or more, but the manifests are still useful tools for rough predictions.
In general, short of a major launch failure grounding a given rocket or some other unforeseen catastrophe (2021’s semiconductor supply issues, for example), unofficial manifests have been maybe 60-80% accurate. In the case of 2022, two such well-maintained manifests agree that SpaceX has approximately 40 launches currently scheduled next year – including up to 5 Falcon Heavy missions and at least 35 Falcon 9 launches. SpaceX has never had more launches scheduled in a single year. Simultaneously, after SpaceX’s 2021 performance, 2022 is the first time it’s been possible to seriously believe that the company might actually be able to complete 40 commercial launches in one year. And even then, that figure is still only part of the story.
Starlink
In 2021, SpaceX completed 17 successful dedicated Starlink missions, launching just shy of 1000 satellites – 989 to be exact – in a single year. In the first five months of 2021, before unknown issues caused an unintended Starlink launch hiatus, SpaceX completed 13 of those dedicated Starlink launches. In other words, if satellite production had kept up with SpaceX’s Falcon fleet, the company was technically on track to complete more than 30 Starlink launches in a single year, which – combined with all other missions – would have amounted to a total of 43 launches in 2021.
That specificity is important because – save for a single Starlink mission – the ~40 commercial launches on SpaceX’s 2022 manifest entirely exclude Starlink launches. Given that skipping or intentionally throttling a full year of Starlink launches is simply out of the question for SpaceX, that means that the company has approximately 40 commercial missions to launch on top of one or two dozen potential Starlink V1.5 missions. Assuming that Starlink V1.5 production remains somewhat constrained relative to Starlink V1.0, which peaked at an implied average of more than 1800 satellites per year in H1 2021, it might be reasonable to expect up to 20 (rather than 30) Starlink V1.5 launches in 2022 if production remains steady.
Combined, that means that SpaceX’s nominal 2022 manifest might actually include up to 60 Falcon launches. The question, then, is whether there is any chance at all for SpaceX to actually complete an average of more than one launch per week next year. Conveniently, SpaceX itself seemingly answered that question just this month. In December 2021, the company – pushing all three of its orbital pads to their limits – completed a record five Falcon 9 launches. Technically, it actually completed those five launches in a mere 19 days. Including NASA’s DART mission, which SpaceX launched on November 24th, the company ultimately launched six Falcon 9 rockets in less than four weeks (27 days).
Given the company’s recent cadence records and the turnaround records of each of the three pads used to achieve them, it’s clear that SpaceX could technically repeat that feat – a burst of five launches in 3-4 weeks – every month. Obviously, that’s easier said than done and it’s inherently unlikely for a record-breaking monthly launch cadence to become the norm immediately after, but the achievement still demonstrates that SpaceX is technically capable of launching five times in three weeks and then being ready to do so again by the start of the next month.
Averaged over 2022, 5 launches per month would equate to 60 launches per year. In other words, while unlikely, it’s by no means impossible for SpaceX to replicate 2021’s Starlink launch cadence and simultaneously complete as many as 40 commercial launches. In reality, a more plausible outcome for 2022 might be 5-10 commercial launches slipping into 2023 and SpaceX ultimately completing around 30-35 commercial launches and ~15 dedicated Starlink missions for a total of 45-50 – still an extraordinary hypothetical achievement by any measure. Going off of recent trends, which have seen SpaceX’s annual cadence grow from 21 (2018) and 26 (2020) to 31 (2021), 35-40 launches would be a still more conservative estimate for 2022.
Regardless, even excluding Starship, the year is set to be quite the spectacle for SpaceX. The 40 commercial missions tentatively on the company’s manifest include two Crew Dragon NASA astronaut launches, one or two private Crew Dragon missions to the International Space Station, up to 3 commercial Moon landers, a Korean Moon orbiter, NASA’s Psyche asteroid explorer, and as many as five or six Falcon Heavy launches.
Elon Musk
The Boring Company wins key approval for Nashville Music City Loop
The approval allows The Boring Company to use state-owned right-of-way along Tennessee’s highway system.
Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee announced that the Tennessee Department of Transportation (TDOT) and the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) have jointly approved The Boring Company’s lease application and enhanced grading permit for the Music City Loop.
The approval allows The Boring Company to use state-owned right-of-way along Tennessee’s highway system, clearing a key hurdle for the privately funded tunnel project that aims to connect downtown Nashville to Nashville International Airport in approximately eight minutes, the Office of the TN Governor wrote in a press release.
“Tennessee continues to lead the nation in finding innovative solutions to accommodate growth, and in partnership with The Boring Company, we are exploring possibilities we couldn’t achieve on our own,” Gov. Lee said in a statement.
“The Boring Company is grateful for the leadership and hard work of federal, state, and local agencies in bringing this project to a shovel-ready point,” The Boring Company President Steve Davis said. “Music City Loop will be a safe, fast, and fun public transportation system, and we are excited to build it in Nashville.”
With lease and permitting approvals secured, The Boring Company will move forward with the Loop system’s construction immediately. The first segment of the Loop system is expected to be operational by the end of the year.
The Music City Loop will run beneath state-owned roadways and is designed to connect downtown Nashville to the airport, as well as lower Broadway to West End. The project will be 100% privately funded.
“The Music City Loop shows what’s possible when we leverage private-sector innovation and American ingenuity to solve transportation challenges,” said U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. “TDOT’s lease approval will help advance this ambitious project as we work to reduce congestion and make travel more seamless for the American people.”
The Boring Company described the Loop as an all-electric, zero-emissions, high-speed underground transportation system that will meet or exceed safety standards. The Vegas Loop, for one, earned a 99.57% safety and security rating from the DHS and the TSA, the highest score ever awarded to any transportation system.
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Tesla China extends its 7-year financing promotion once more
The move marks Tesla’s second extension of the program this year.
Tesla has extended its seven-year ultra-low-interest and five-year interest-free financing programs in China once more, pushing the offers through March 31, the end of the first quarter.
The move marks Tesla’s second extension of the program this year. The financing plan was first introduced on January 6 as a strategy aimed at offsetting higher ownership costs ahead of China’s planned 5% NEV purchase tax in 2026.
The original promotion was set to expire at the end of January but was extended to the end of February. This has now been extended again through March.
The repeated extensions reflect growing competitive pressure. Tesla’s 2025 retail sales in China totaled 625,698 units, representing a 4.78% year-on-year decline, as per data compiled by CNEV Post. That being said, this decline is partly caused by the Model Y’s changeover to its new variant in Q1 2025, which resulted in lower sales during the quarter.
In early 2026, the Model Y also lost its position as China’s top-selling EV in January to Xiaomi’s YU7, though this was also a month when Tesla primarily exported vehicles to foreign territories, which pushed local delivery numbers lower.
During January 2026, Tesla China exported 50,644 vehicles, roughly 1.7 times higher than the same month a year ago and more than 15 times higher than December’s level.
Tesla’s financing push has not gone unanswered. BYD this week introduced its own seven-year low-interest plan across its Ocean lineup and Fang Cheng Bao sub-brand, also valid through March 31. Other competitors including NIO, XPeng, Li Auto, and Geely Auto have already rolled out extended-term loan programs as well.
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Tesla China focuses on local deliveries as Q1 enters final month
Tesla’s estimated delivery times for all variants of the Model 3 and Model Y in China were listed at just one to three weeks.
Tesla’s delivery wait times in China have dropped to some of their shortest levels in years, an apparent hint that Giga Shanghai has largely cleared its order backlog and currently has strong production capacity.
As of February 26, estimated delivery times for all variants of the Model 3 and Model Y in China were listed at just one to three weeks, as per observations of Tesla China’s official webpages by CNEV Post.
That marks a notable shift from the several-week or even two-month waits seen late last year.
The one-to-three-week delivery window suggests that Giga Shanghai is likely focusing on the local market, at least for now as the company enters the final month of the first quarter. Tesla China typically spends the first half of the quarter catering to markets that import vehicles from Giga Shanghai.
Historically, when Tesla’s wait times in China compress to their shortest levels, the company often follows with fresh market actions.
In past cycles, shortened delivery timelines were followed by promotional activity. After delivery windows narrowed to one to three weeks in early 2024, for example, Tesla later introduced an RMB 10,000 instant discount on Model Y final payments that year.
To spur local demand, Tesla recently extended its seven-year ultra-low-interest and five-year interest-free financing offers through March 31. This marks the second extension of the policy this year.
So far, posts from the Tesla community suggest that interest in the company’s vehicles among consumers in China is still strong. Videos of busy delivery centers across China have been shared on social media.
China’s competitive EV landscape has evolved as of late. With regulators discouraging aggressive price wars, automakers are increasingly leaning on financing incentives instead of direct price cuts. Major players including BYD, NIO, XPeng, and Li Auto have introduced similar loan extensions and promotional financing packages.
The Boring Company wins key approval for Nashville Music City Loop
Tesla China extends its 7-year financing promotion once more
