News
SpaceX bids goodbye to older Falcon 9s with Florida ‘jellyfish’ launch spectacle
SpaceX’s final Block 4 Falcon 9 has completed its second and last orbital mission with a spectacular sendoff visible for hundreds of miles along the East Coast, harkening back to “alien invasion” comparisons that followed an equally stunning SpaceX launch from California last December.
Although the Falcon 9 booster was expended in the Atlantic Ocean minutes after launch, its upper stage remains in orbit in an experimental test of its lifespan, while the mission’s flight-proven Cargo Dragon spacecraft separated from the rocket and headed to the International Space Station with a promise of a possible third orbital reuse in 2019. This mission’s Dragon capsule flew for the first time in late 2016 for the CRS-9 mission and spent the two years since then having its heat shield and other major components refurbished or replaced, likely at a cost to SpaceX less than half that of constructing a brand-new Dragon spacecraft.
Falcon 9 B1045 lounges in the Florida summer humidity, hours before its second and final launch. (Tom Cross)
According to Jessica Jensen, SpaceX’s Director of Dragon Mission Management, SpaceX’s Dragon refurbishment team has also gotten considerably more efficient over several years of experience reusing the orbital spacecraft, now up to three reflights of three separate capsules. She noted in the postlaunch conference that – if all major components are healthy upon CRS-15’s early-August return to Earth – this capsule could be refurbished for its third mission in as few as months, which would make it one of the last Dragon 1 launches before the upgraded Dragon 2 begins crewed flights and takes over all cargo missions. After CRS-15, five more of those Cargo Dragon flights remain until CRS-2’s 2020 takeover, all of which will utilize flight-proven capsules.
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- CRS-15’s dramatic pre-dawn launch. (Tom Cross)
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- The extraordinary plume was lit up by the sun before it had risen above the Eastern horizon. (Tom Cross)
Falcon 9, on the other hand, reached a truly historic milestone today for SpaceX – B1045’s second and final flight marks the last rocket SpaceX will fly that does not feature a number of upgrades designed to dramatically improve booster reusability. Known as Falcon 9 Block 5, all future SpaceX missions (at least until BFR’s debut sometime in the early 2020s) will be launched aboard the upgraded rocket. If it works as intended, Block 5 should theoretically enable a rapid and affordable level of reusability never before achieved by Falcon 9 or any other rocket, for that matter.
https://twitter.com/_TomCross_/status/1012694524987092992
While still more than a little disheartening to see a Falcon 9 booster intentionally expended after launch, the spectacle created by B1045’s final flight was fitting, to say the least. Thankfully, the Block 5 takeover of all future SpaceX Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches is likely to also result in a dramatic reduction in SpaceX’s willingness to expend flight-proven rockets after launch. Whereas Block 3 and 4 Falcon 9s were never designed to affordably and safely fly more than two or three times total, minimizing any opportunity cost from expending twice-flown rockets after launch, Block 5 has been purpose-built to allow individual boosters to fly a bare minimum of 10 times with minimal refurbishment and as many as 100 times with regular maintenance. Unless Block 5’s design fails to achieve that level of reusability, SpaceX is extremely unlikely to expend Block 5 boosters unless they have flown a number of times to extract as much value as possible from them.
Up next on SpaceX’s manifest are two back-to-back Falcon 9 Block 5 launches, Iridium-7 from California on July 20 and Telstar 19V from Florida less than 18 hours later. Both Block 5 boosters will be recovered aboard SpaceX’s fleet of drone ships, Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) to the West and Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) to the East.
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Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
