News
SpaceX urges White House to foster public-private partnerships in space
Earlier this year, the White House announced plans to reestablish the National Space Council (NSC), an advising body that dates back to the creation of NASA in 1958. The council convened for the first time on October 5 and invited several central figures in US spaceflight, including SpaceX’s President and COO Gwynne Shotwell.
In a brief but powerful speech to the Council, Shotwell urged the US Federal government to apply the lessons learned from NASA’s successful private-public partnerships to efforts to expand human presence in Low Earth Orbit and beyond. Those successful partnerships include NASA COTS (Commercial Orbital Transportation Services), which funded SpaceX to develop its Cargo Dragon spacecraft to resupply the ISS, and the Commercial Crew Program (CCP) that funded SpaceX for the development of their crewed Dragon 2 spacecraft. In terms of efficiency and speed, both programs have indeed been extraordinarily successful, despite often maligned delays.
As a brief example of the insignificance of SpaceX’s Commercial Crew delays, one needs to look no further than NASA’s Space Launch System. Described in early 2011 to be pursuing operational readiness no later than December 2016, SLS is now extremely unlikely to conduct its first launch until well into 2020. A reasonable cost estimate spreads the development costs ($30 billion) over 30 years of operations, assumes an optimistic one launch per year for the vehicle, and arrives at an astounding final figure of $5 billion per SLS launch.
The development funds NASA awarded SpaceX for both Cargo Dragon, Falcon 9, and Crew Dragon were estimated to be no more than $7.3 billion from 2006 to the last Cargo Dragon mission currently scheduled for 2024. Even if this figure swells to $10 billion once operational crewed flights to the ISS begin in 2018 or 2019, the entire cost of NASA’s support of SpaceX would equate to two launches of SLS total.
NASA slipped a sly glimpse of Dragon 2 construction into their live coverage SpaceX’s CRS-12 launch. On the left is a Dragon 2 pressure vessel, while on the right is the vehicle’s “trunk”. (NASA)
Shotwell made sure to avoid the topic of SLS entirely, instead choosing to highlight the benefits of cost and speed public-private partnerships could provide for deep space communications and interplanetary cargo transport. This marks the second time that a ranking member of SpaceX has mentioned a possible public-private program for deep space communications, something that will inevitably need to improve as the commercial spaceflight apparatus extends its reach beyond Earth. SpaceX is currently developing satellite technology to enable a massive orbital Internet constellation around Earth, and the company is obviously interested in leveraging that R&D to strengthen Earth-Mars and Earth-Moon networks into a more robust communications backbone. Secretary of Transport Elaine Chao and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson also slipped in words of excitement and interest in SpaceX’s recently revealed concept of point to point Earth transportation with their BFR system.
This meeting of the NSC also focused heavily on the domestic and regulatory apparatus for commercial space operations. Shotwell and Blue Origin’s CEO Bob Smith both suggested that the FAA’s current rules and regulations regarding commercial spaceflight ought to be reviewed and potentially updated to better account for a future of reusable commercial launch vehicles. Shotwell subtly maligned the often-tedious process of applying for FAA launch permits, pointing to the fact that even slight changes to permits would force companies to file entirely new applications, often taking six months or longer. SpaceX, with its rapid development and deployment of reusable rockets and an ever-increasing launch cadence, is more than ever before at odds with the FAA’s slow and unforgiving permitting processes.
SpaceX’s BFR Earth transport concept would undoubtedly clash head-on with the FAA’s current system of rocket regulations. (SpaceX)
Intriguingly, Council members Mike Pence, Mick Mulvaney, and Elaine Chao all expressed a desire to ease the burden of anachronistic regulations on the commercial space industry. More interesting still, the commercial space panel ended with what effectively sounded like a handshake deal between the Vice President, the Secretary of Transportation, and the Director of the Office of Management and Budget to review current commercial spaceflight regulations and report the results of those reviews to the NSC in no more than 45 days.
It remains to be seen if this verbal commitment translates into an official review, but it is at a minimum encouraging to hear ranking members of the current White House administration so openly express support for SpaceX, Blue Origin, Sierra Nevada Corp., and American commercial spaceflight in general.
The First Meeting of the National Space Council can be seen in the embed below.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nh2jVG76S7g
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
