News
SpaceX’s flight-proven Falcon 9 and drone ship fleet ready for duo of launches
SpaceX is gearing up for a duo of flight-proven Falcon 9 launches and drone ship landings on both coasts of the United States, set for liftoff from Cape Canaveral’s Kennedy Space Center and Vandenberg Air Force Base no earlier than (NET) November 15th and 19th, respectively.
#SpaceXArmada: Moments ago, outbound tugboat Hawk with droneship OCISLY in tow in @PortCanaveral. Destination: Booster core landing/recovery LZ of Thursday's #Eshail2 launch, approx 408 mi E of @NASAKennedy. pic.twitter.com/n5FvBdIvpt
— Cowboy Dan (@CowboyDanPaasch) November 12, 2018
East Coast activities
On the East Coast, drone ship Of Course I Still Love You departed from Port Canaveral late last night (Nov 11) as Falcon 9 B1047 rolled onto Pad 39A for a preflight static fire test, where the rocket will be filled with a full complement of fluids (TEA/TEB, helium, nitrogen, oxygen, kerosene) and all nine Merlin 1D engines are ignited in order to replicate the seconds just prior to a real launch. That static fire test was originally expected to occur on November 10 or 11 but has obviously been pushed back a day to Nov. 12, likely meaning that the rocket’s launch – carrying Qatari communications satellite Es’hail-2 – will slip 24 hours to 3:46pm EST (08:46 UTC) on the 16th,
Following the unfortunate loss of Amos-6 during a preflight static fire in September 2016, SpaceX has since made a reasonable move away from performing static fires with payloads integrated atop the rocket, unless the customer specifically requests that it be done that way to save time. As such, Falcon 9 must be brought horizontal, rolled back to the hangar, inspected, and finally have the payload and fairing attached to the rocket, a sensitive process that demands nuance and time. Combined with an analysis of data gathered during the static fire, this process – when all goes as planned – can take at least 48 hours from start to finish, and longer still if any minor off-nominal behavior is observed or the launch customer has additional requirements (typically reserved for NASA and national security-related missions).
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- B1047 horizontal at Pad 39A, November 11. (Tom Cross)
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- B1047 made an extraordinary ring vortex rainbow as it smashed through Max Q, the point of highest aerodynamic stress on the rocket. (Tom Cross)
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- B1046 seen mid-static fire at Pad 39A ahead of Falcon 9 Block 5’s launch debut, May 2018. (Tom Cross)
Because rockets like Falcon 9 are extraordinarily intricate and finely-tuned machines, perfectly nominal launch-related events are few and far between. In reality, the time between static fire rollout and launch readiness is rarely less than three days (72 hours), not including the process of rolling the fully-integrated rocket back out to the pad, aligning and securing the vehicle and transporter-erector (TE) over the flame trench, and finally attaching all umbilical connections and verifying vehicle health. Speaking generally, four to five days is a good rule of thumb for the time it takes to complete Falcon 9’s static fire and return the rocket to the pad after attaching the payload.
Still, it’s always a good sign when a drone ship leaves port, much like OCISLY did on the evening of the 11th. The journey to its destination will take 2-3 days, meaning that the drone ship will be ready to catch Falcon 9 whenever the rocket is ready to launch.
Drone ships and sooty rockets, oh my!
On the West Coast, SpaceX is also getting ready for drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) to depart Port of San Pedro in anticipation of a presumed sea recovery of Falcon 9 following the NET Nov 19 launch of a multi-satellite rideshare mission known as SSO-A. While SpaceX currently holds two recovery licenses for the booster, one by sea and one at the land-based LZ-4 pad, it’s possible that the company will be forced to use JRTI despite the fact that Falcon 9 will have plenty of propellant left to return itself to the launch site (RTLS). United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) next Delta IV Heavy rocket is currently on-pad with a presumably very expensive National Reconnaissance (NRO) satellite attached roughly 1.5 miles northeast of SpaceX’s LZ-4 – the rest of the gaps are easy enough to fill in.
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- Falcon 9 Block 5 booster B1046 seen during both of its post-launch landings. (SpaceX/SpaceX)
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- B1047 completed its first successful launch in July 2018. (Tom Cross)
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- B1047 seen rolling into 39A’s integration hangar for refurbishment on July 31st. (Reddit – Kent767)
JRTI was spotted by Teslarati photographer Pauline Acalin performing some rare sea trials on November 10 after spending several weeks berthed at port for routine maintenance and deck repairs. Fairing recovery vessel Mr. Steven has also been undergoing some unusual modifications, now proudly sporting what can only be described as a steel horn recently installed on the tip of his bow deck. After sitting out a catch attempt during the launch of SAOCOM 1A to prepare for controlled helicopter drop tests performed over a period of several weeks in October, Mr. Steven will most likely be ready for another stab at operational fairing recovery during SSO-A.
Both rockets – B1047 to the East and (presumed) B1046 to the West – are flight-proven, meaning that they have flown operational orbital missions prior to their upcoming launch attempts, B1047 launched communications satellite Telstar 19V in July 2018, while B1046 has actually performed two successful launches already, Bangabandhu-1 in May and Telkom 4 (Merah Putih) in August.
For prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket recovery fleet check out our brand new LaunchPad and LandingZone newsletters!
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
