News
SpaceX considers Florida launch pad for both Falcon and Mars vehicle launches
Following a highly informative discussion at the ISS R&D conference, Elon Musk revealed that the updated, leaner version of SpaceX’s Mars architecture would likely have a diameter of around 9 meters.
A 9m Interplanetary Transport System, while precisely 25% smaller than the 12m diameter version revealed last year, would have to either lose the outer ring of full scale Raptor engines, or pivot to a smaller version of Raptor in order to preserve the 42 engine configuration shown at the IAC. Given Musk’s adamant and harsh judgement of the complexity of 27 Merlin 1D engines simultaneously firing on Falcon Heavy, moving to a 21 engine first stage for SpaceX’s Mars vehicle is a fair bet, so long as the full scale Raptor engine is still planned. Extremely speculative calculations based on the limited information available suggest that this smaller ITS could launch a bit less than half the payload of the original, still almost double the capability of Saturn V.
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- A Space Shuttle’s external tank makes its way through downtown Los Angeles in 2011. The ET had a diameter of 8.4m. (AP/Chris Carlson)
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- The base of SpaceX’s ITS booster, circa 2016. Current plans make it likely that the outside ring of engines will be subtracted and the vehicle made leaner. (SpaceX)
Possibly the most significant information to come out of this tweet is the implication that SpaceX and Musk are now looking to utilize current manufacturing facilities for the construction of a smaller ITS. While it adds considerable expense, the transport of a Space Shuttle’s external fuel tank through the streets of Los Angeles in 2011 sets a precedent for it being possible for SpaceX to transport a 9m vehicle from its factory in Hawthorne, CA to a nearby port. If SpaceX is able to use the same facilities it currently has for developing its Mars vehicle, it would experience immense savings compared to the cost of developing entirely new factories and testing facilities. This matches up perfectly with Musk’s repeated statement that the updated ITS is focused on improving the economic case for the vehicle and making it significantly cheaper to develop.
A 9m diameter vehicle fits in our existing factories …
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 22, 2017
Possibly the most crucial keystone of this economical update relates to the launch pad or pads that will be necessary to launch a rocket as large as either ITS. An oft-overlooked feature of the current LC-39A launch pad SpaceX leases and operates in Florida is that it and its LC-39B sibling were developed with a far larger and more powerful version of Saturn V in mind, known as Nova at the time. SpaceX is well aware of this, and is also painfully aware of just how expensive the construction of launch pads can be after having to undertake deep repairs of LC-40.
Mockups of potential solutions for a dual vehicle setup at LC-39A. With this arrangement, SpaceX would be able to continue crewed and Falcon Heavy launches from the pad while conducting initial tests and launches of their ITS. (Jay Deshetler, in addition to Cameron Byers and John Archer, based on notes from KSC pad engineers)(NASASpaceflight)
Buried in a fascinating article by Chris Bergin of NASASpaceflight.com fame, Bergin has revealed that documents and rumblings behind the scenes indicate that SpaceX is seriously considering either co-launching from LC-39B or modifying LC-39A with a second launch mount. This would require considerably modifications to the venerable pad, but it would not require the costly and time-consuming construction of an entirely new launch pad. Speculative renders and mockups (above) created by the skilled forum members of NASASpaceflight demonstrate this nicely, showing the launch mount for ITS and Falcon side by side.
Combined with Musk’s past statements about this updated version of ITS, the future is looking increasingly bright for what was initially a somewhat crazy architecture. Easier transport, recycled development facilities, and co-location on an already-constructed launch pad show that SpaceX are completely serious about their ambitions for Mars and are willing to do what is necessary to get to the Moon, the Red Planet, and beyond.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
