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SpaceX nears big US govt. missions as ULA handwaves about risks of competition

Falcon 9 B1045 rolls out to Pad 40 ahead of its first launch in April 2018. (NASA/SpaceX)

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Speaking at the 2018 Von Braun Symposium in Huntsville, Alabama, ULA COO John Elbon expressed worries that the US National Security Space (NSS) apparatus could be put at significant risk if it comes to rely too heavily on the commercial launch industry to assure access to space.

Given that the US military’s launch capabilities rest solely on SpaceX and ULA and will remain that way for at least three more years, Elbon’s comment was effectively an odd barb tossed in the direction of SpaceX and – to a lesser extent – Blue Origin, two disruptive and commercially-oriented launch providers.

Reading between the lines

For the most part, Elbon’s brief presentation centered around a reasonable discussion of ULA’s track record and future vehicle development, emphasizing the respectable reliability of its current Atlas V and Delta IV rockets and the ‘heritage’ they share with ULA’s next-generation Vulcan vehicle. However, the COO twice brought up an intriguing concern that the US military launch apparatus could suffer if it ends up relying too heavily on ‘commercially-sustained’ launch vehicles like Falcon 9/Heavy or New Glenn.

To provide historical context and evidence favorable to his position, Elbon brought up a now-obscure event in the history of the launch industry, where – 20 years ago – companies Lockheed Martin and Boeing reportedly “set out to develop … Atlas V and Delta IV” primarily to support the launch of several large satellite constellations. The reality and causes of the US launch industry’s instability in the late ’90s and early ’00s is almost indistinguishable from this narrative, however.

Despite the many veils of aerospace and military secrecy surrounding the events that occurred afterward, the facts show that – in 1999 – Boeing (per acquisition of McDonnell Douglas) and Lockheed Martin (LM) both received awards of $500M to develop the Delta IV and Atlas V rockets, and the military further committed to buying a full 28 launches for $2B between 2002 and 2006. Combined, the US military effectively placed $3B ($4.5B in 2018 dollars) on the table for its Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program with the goal of ensuring uninterrupted access to space for national security purposes.

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Rocketing into corporate espionage

“The robust commercial market forecast led the Air Force to reconsider its acquisition strategy.  The EELV acquisition strategy changed from a planned down-select to a single contractor and a standard Air Force development program [where the USAF funds vehicle development in its entirety] to a dual commercialized approach that leveraged commercial market share and contractor investment.” – USAF EELV Fact Sheet, March 2017

The above quote demonstrates that there is at least an inkling of truth in Elbon’s spin. However, perhaps the single biggest reason that the EELV program and its two awardees stumbled was gross, inexcusable conduct on the part of Boeing. In essence, the company’s space executives conspired to use corporate espionage to gain an upper-hand over Lockheed Martin, knowledge which ultimately allowed Boeing to severely low-ball the prices of its Delta IV rocket, securing 19 of 28 available USAF launch contracts.

Ultimately, Lockheed Martin caught wind of Boeing’s suspect behavior and filed a lawsuit that began several years of USAF investigations and highly unpleasant revelations, while Boeing also had at least 10 future launch contracts withdrawn to the tune of ~$1B (1999). USAF investigations discovered that Boeing had lied extensively to the Air Force for more than four years – the actual volume of information stolen would balloon wildly from Boeing’s initial reports of “seven pages of harmless data” to 10+ boxes containing more than 42,000 pages of extremely detailed technical and proprietary information about Lockheed Martin’s Atlas V rocket proposal.

“If you rewind the clock 20 years, there were folks on a panel like this having dialogue about commercial launch, and there were envisioned several constellations that were going to require significant commercial launch. Lockheed Martin and Boeing set out to develop launch vehicles that were focused on that very robust commercial market – in the case of McDonald Douglas at the time, which later became Boeing, the factory in Decatur was…sized to crank out 40 [rocket boosters] a year, a couple of ships were bought to transport those…significant infrastructure put in place to address that envisioned launch market.” – John Elbon, COO, United Launch Alliance (ULA)

 

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In reality, Boeing was so desperate to secure USAF launches – despite the fact that it knew full well that Delta IV was too expensive to be sustainably competitive – that dozens of employees were eventually roped into a systematic, years-long, highly-illegal program of corporate espionage specifically designed to beat out government launch competitor Lockheed Martin. Humorously, Delta IV was not even Boeing’s design – rather, Boeing acquired designer McDonnell Douglas in late 1996, five days before the USAF announced the decision to reject Boeing and another company’s EELV proposals, narrowing down to two finalists (McDonnell Douglas and Lockheed Martin).

Seven years after the original lawsuit snowballed, Boeing settled with Lockheed Martin for a payment of more than $600M in 2006, accepting responsibility for its employees’ actions but admitting no corporate wrongdoing. Five years after that settlement, John Elbon became Vice President of Boeing’s Space Exploration division. This is by no means to suggest that Elbon is in any way complicit, having spent much of his 30+ years at Boeing managing the company’s involvement in the International Space Station, but more serves as an example of how recent these events are and why their consequences almost certainly continue to reverberate loudly within the US space industry.

SpaceX forces change

Worsened significantly by the consequences of Boeing’s lies about the actual operational costs of its Delta IV rocket (it had planned to secretly write off a loss on each rocket in order to steal USAF market share from LockMart), the commercial market for the extremely expensive rocket was and still is functionally nonexistent. 35 out of the family’s 36 launches have been contracted by the US military (30), NOAA (3), or NASA (2); the rocket’s first launch, likely sold at a major discount to Eutelsat, remains its one and only commercial mission.

ULA’s Delta Heavy seen during the August 2018 launch of NASA’s Parker Solar Probe. (Tom Cross)

Atlas V, typically priced around 30% less than comparable Delta IV variants, has had a far more productive career, albeit with very few commercial launches since the Dec. 2006 formation of the United Launch Alliance. Since 2007, just 5 of Atlas V’s 70 launches have been for commercial customers. Frankly, although Atlas V was appreciably more affordable than Delta IV, neither rocket was ever able to sustainably compete with Europe’s Ariane 5 workhorse – Ariane 5 cost more per launch, but superior payload performance often let Arianespace manifest two large satellites on a single launch, approximately halving the cost for each customer. Russia’s affordable (but only moderately reliable) Proton rockets also played an important role in the commercial launch industry prior to SpaceX’s arrival.

After fighting tooth and nail for years to break ULA’s US governmental launch monopoly, SpaceX’s first dedicated National Security Space launch finally occurred less than a year and a half ago, in May 2017. SpaceX has since placed a USAF spaceplane and a classified NSS-related satellite into orbit and been awarded launch contracts for critical USAF payloads, most notably winning five of five competed GPS III satellite launches, to begin as early as mid-December. Falcon 9 will cost the USAF roughly 30% less than a comparable Atlas 5 contract, $97M to ULA’s ~$135M.

 

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A bit more than two decades after Boeing bought McDonnell Douglas and began a calculated effort to steal trade secrets from Lockheed Martin, Elbon – now COO of the Boeing/Lockheed Martin-cooperative ULA – seems to fervently believe that the most critical mistake made in the late 1990s and early 2000s was the USAF’s decision to partially support the development of two separate rockets. Elbon concluded his remarks on the topic with one impressively unambiguous summary of ULA’s position:

“We have to make sure that we don’t get too much supply and not enough demand so that the [launch] providers can’t survive in a robust business environment, and then we lose the capability as a country to do the launches we need to do … [That’s] the perspective we have at ULA and it’s based on the experience that we’ve been through in the past.”

In his sole Delta IV vs. Atlas V case-study, what ULA now seems to think might have been “too much supply” under the USAF’s EELV program appears to literally be the fundamental minimum conditions needed for competition to exist at all – two companies offering two competing products. Short of directly stating as much, it’s difficult to imagine a more concise method of revealing the apparent belief that competition – at all – is intrinsically undesirable or risky.

A recording of the Von Braun Symposium’s Commercial Space panel can be viewed here at timestamp 01:11:40.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla is building a new UFO-inspired Supercharger in the heart of Alien country

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Credit: MarcoRP | X

Tesla is planning to build a new UFO-inspired Supercharger in the heart of Alien country — Roswell, New Mexico.

Back in 1947, a crash of debris led to rumors of an alleged crash of a UFO just 75 miles north of Roswell near Corona, New Mexico. The crash was officially noted as the recovery of a military balloon, but over the years, speculation persists that the “flying disc” many saw might have been extraterrestrials trying to make contact with Earth.

As a result of the 1947 crash, Roswell has adopted it and used it as the inspiration for much of its tourism. As Tesla is planning to build a Supercharger in the area, it is using the same sort of inspiration for the location, which will feature just eight charging stalls located under a CyberCanopy.

It was first spotted by MarcoRP, a noted Supercharger permit insider:

Here are some better pictures of the design:

Tesla’s Head of Charging for North America, Max de Zegher, confirmed that the site will be inspired by the events near Roswell in 1947. He noted that Tesla “wants to build a few Superchargers cool enough to be worth of the trip itself.”

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This will undoubtedly be one of those locations, and along with the Tesla Drive-in Diner Supercharger in Santa Monica, it seems the company could be moving toward some more unique designs for the future, making the charging experience more fun and interesting for owners:

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This Tesla vandal caused thousands in damage, but she was let off the hook: Here’s why

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Credit: Tesla

A Tesla vandal in Bloomington, Minnesota, caused $3,200 in damages to a car after keying it. However, the local police department, as well as the owner of the Tesla, let her off the hook.

As a Tesla sat in the parking lot of a Cub Foods grocery store, it was damaged in an act of vandalism that we are unfortunately seeing all too frequently. Police managed to locate the woman responsible for the damage, aiming to hold her responsible for the scrapes she applied to the vehicle.

However, in an act that many might not be able to perform, the owner of the Tesla did not want to pursue any criminal charges. Instead, they just wanted their car fixed.

Police Chief Booker Hodges said (via Minnesota Star Tribune):

“The victim in this case just wanted their car fixed, and they just wanted the suspect to pay for that. Based on the totality of the circumstances here, and along with our core value of being compassionate, this is the best outcome for everybody involved in this case.”

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It was an incredible act of forgiveness, as many of those who have had their Teslas damaged in response to CEO Elon Musk likely would not have been able to do the same thing. One person who had their vehicle keyed filed a civil lawsuit against the vandal, who damaged their car while it was parked at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, seeking $1 million in damages.

Chief Hodges finished his remarks about this specific situation by calling out the leaders who have spread a hateful narrative about Musk and Tesla, and the company’s vehicle owners as well:

“We need our leaders to start leading and stop feeding this rhetoric. People should be able to drive whatever car they want without fear of going into a store and someone scratching their car or people yelling at them because of the car that … they choose to drive. It’s time for all of us, you know, just to start getting along and knock this stuff off, man. People should be able to be left alone.”

While Chief Hodges did not mention anyone specifically, Minnesota politician and former VP candidate Tim Walz said earlier this month that he “gets a boost” when Tesla stock falls. He later retracted his statement by stating it was just a joke.

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Tesla Model Y tops Norway sales despite low Q1 delivery results

The new Model Y ended March as Norway’s top-selling vehicle for the month, with 1,819 units sold.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla did not meet delivery expectations in the first quarter of 2025, and a huge reason behind this was the changeover to the new Model Y in Giga Texas, the Fremont Factory, Giga Shanghai, and Giga Berlin.

Despite Tesla’s disappointing Q1 vehicle delivery results, the new Model Y still made a significant impact in key markets such as Norway.

The new Model Y’s Norway Comeback

While sales of the new Model Y in January and February were low in Norway, the vehicle saw a lot of momentum as soon as deliveries of the updated all-electric crossover started. This resulted in the new Model Y ending March 2025 as Norway’s top-selling vehicle for the month, with 1,819 units sold.

Over the course of Q1 2025, Tesla was able to sell a total of 2,792 Model Y units. That was enough to also make the all-electric crossover Norway’s best-selling vehicle in the first quarter. This is quite an impressive feat for Tesla, especially since sales were throttled during the quarter due to the company’s changeover to the new Model Y.

Source: Elbilstatistikk

Tesla in Other European Markets

Tesla’s results in Europe during the first quarter were a mixed bag. In Germany alone, Tesla saw 4,935 vehicles sold in Q1 2025. As per the German road traffic agency KBA, Tesla’s sales in March dropped 42.5% to 2,229 units year-over-year. This was despite overall EV registrations rising 35.3% during the month. 

In Italy, new vehicle registrations rebounded 51% in March from the previous year to 2,217 units, as per data from the Transport Ministry. This is still quite impressive considering that Tesla has become a very polarizing carmaker in Europe, thanks in no small part to CEO Elon Musk’s politics and close relation to U.S. President Donald Trump.

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