News
SpaceX could begin testing its Mars rocket in Texas by late 2018, early 2019
On the heels of a successful wet dress rehearsal for Falcon Heavy, SpaceX’s President and COO Gwynne Shotwell spoke briefly about SpaceX for an aerospace conference located at Texas’ Academy of Medicine, Engineering & Science. Ars Technica’s senior spaceflight editor Eric Berger was in attendance and provided a rough outline of live tweets during the first group of presentations.
While the phrasing cannot provide absolute confirmation, Berger summarized a statement by Shotwell suggesting that SpaceX’s Boca Chica, Texas launch site, currently in the early stages of construction, could be ready to host “vehicle tests” as soon as late 2018, early 2019. At this point in time, based on comments from Shotwell and CEO Elon Musk, it can be reasonably assumed that SpaceX’s Texas launch facilities will be dedicated mainly to the company’s interplanetary colonization efforts, and will probably be tailored to support the testing and eventual launches of BFR/BFS.
Some news from Shotwell: Brownsville launch site ready for vehicle tests in late 2018, early 2019. Move to launch site after that.
— Eric Berger (@SciGuySpace) January 11, 2018
After nine months of earnest construction and rehabilitation, SpaceX’s LC-40 pad was recently reactivated and has since supported two launches without any major hitches. At the same time, LC-39A in flux in order to support launches of SpaceX’s new Falcon Heavy rocket, the size of which required some concomitant upgrades to multiple ground systems. With both of those major tasks now effectively complete, SpaceX’s pad construction team is free to either refocus their efforts towards Boca Chica. Over the past several months, Boca Chica has seen a gradual but consistent level of development, mainly by way of unaffiliated SpaceX contractors. These changes have been dutifully tracked over the last several years on NASASpaceflight.com forums by a handful of friendly local residents interested in the changes coming to Boca Chica and Brownsville, Texas, a nearby town.
SpaceX’s Boca Chica facilities and STARGATE dishes (center-left) seen at sunset from the top of the giant crane garage. (anonymous Instagram user)
Most significantly, the last several months have seen three major developments. First and most prominently, a permanent facility called STARGATE externally appears complete and its two large radio communication dishes have been installed nearby. The STARGATE facility is a public-private partnership between the University of Texas at Brownsville (now part of University of Texas Rio Grande Valley) and SpaceX, with the academic components focusing on research that SpaceX undoubtedly has interest in: improved orbital spacecraft tracking and communications. Operationally, SpaceX will use the facilities to communicate with and operate its Crew Dragon spacecraft during launches, set to begin with an uncrewed demonstration mission as early as August 2018.
Second, an absolutely massive trolley crane appeared on SpaceX’s land and was eventually housed in an apparently purpose-built shed. The crane dwarfs anything currently used at SpaceX’s launch facilities and is almost certainly a custom-ordered piece of equipment, and thus would be both expensive and explicitly purposeful. What that purpose might be is currently unknown, but it is entirely plausible that the crane is intended to support initial testing (or even limited manufacturing) of SpaceX’s first BFS prototype rockets. This speculation has now been strengthened by Shotwell’s January 11 2018 comment on potential “vehicle tests” occurring at the site within a year or so, and also meshes with a presentation she gave in October 2017 at MIT. It also fits with Elon Musk’s 2017 IAC comments that BFR construction tooling and facilities were respectively already ordered and under construction.
The boom of the giant crane seen in late 2017, parked at SpaceX’s Boca Chica facilities. (Reddit /u/ ticklestuff)
Third and last, the aforementioned SpaceX-following locals observed the early stages of a solar power install beginning on some of SpaceX’s Boca Chica land in late 2017, and also noted that at least some of its contractors were part of Tesla Solar. Plans and permits for solar power were acknowledged as far back as 2014, although at that point the contractor was Solar City (now a part of Tesla). A handful of months later, NASASpaceflight user and all-around awesome guy Nomadd has installed a webcam on a tall pole with a wonderful view of both the solar installation (now nearly completed) and STARGATE. The acre of solar panels can be expected to produce as much as half a megawatt (MW) at peak sun, likely more than enough to offset a considerable amount of the facilities’ electricity usage even after it begins to be see serious use.
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- A Tesla Energy/Solar City contractor’s vehicle spotted at the Boca Chica solar installation. (NSF /u/ bocachicagal)
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- As of last week, the solar installation appears to be nearly complete. (NSF /u/ Nomadd)
Originally announced as an additional Falcon launch facility in 2014, Boca Chica has remained relatively dormant over the last three years, and it is truly exciting to see activity ramping up. There are admittedly significant barriers that will prevent SpaceX from effortlessly repurposing its Boca Chica pad for BFR, a much larger rocket. If SpaceX intends to do that, they will almost certainly need to pass a significantly updated FAA environmental impact review and account for any remediations that might be required. Still, that is a small ask for for Brownsville’s local government and Texas as a whole, both of which have clearly enjoyed and begun to benefit from SpaceX’s presence in the otherwise unknown area. SpaceX is unlikely to give up on Boca Chica in the near term, so long as Ms. Shotwell maintains her belief that it is effectively the perfect location for BFR launches.
Overall, Shotwell’s comments over the last several months and today in particular are increasingly encouraging, and things are likely to only speed up as 2018 progresses, allowing SpaceX to focus more and more of its expertise on BFR, BFS, and its South Texas testing and launch facilities.
Full disclosure: As Shotwell did not specify which vehicle or vehicles could be expected to begin testing in 2018/2019, it is possible that Falcon 9, not BFR, was the statement’s target. This article should be taken with a grain of salt, as it is educated speculation based upon public information from SpaceX executives and Texas contractors. Teslarati reached out to SpaceX for additional information, but the company was unable to comment further on Shotwell’s presentation at the moment.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
