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SpaceX’s most important Falcon 9 booster yet returns to port with a lean
On November 19th, what is likely SpaceX’s most important Falcon 9 booster yet returned to Port Canaveral with a surprise – perhaps the most dramatic lean ever observed on one of the recovered rockets.
Tilted a solid 10+ degrees from vertical, the lean was immediately visible as soon as the top of the rocket crest the horizon, and it later became clear that one of Falcon 9 booster B1061’s four landing legs had no contact at all with drone ship Just Read The Instruction’s (JRTI) deck. Four days prior, Falcon 9 (and B1061) became the first commercially-developed rocket in history to be certified to launch NASA astronauts, a feat it pulled off flawlessly. Crew Dragon safely delivered four astronauts to the International Space Station on November 16th, marking the culmination of more than half a decade of (mostly) uninterrupted work.
Even before Crew Dragon and Falcon 9’s momentous Crew-1 launch, though, NASA had already revealed some details that would make parts of Crew-1 even more important and the follow-up Crew-2 launch – scheduled as early as March 2021 – perhaps the most significant mission in SpaceX’s history.
In short, less than a month after SpaceX’s equally flawless Crew Dragon Demo-2 astronaut launch debut, NASA contract modifications revealed that the agency had permitted SpaceX to reuse both Dragon capsules and Falcon 9 boosters on upcoming astronaut launches.
“In a wholly unexpected turn of events, a modification to SpaceX’s ~$3.1 billion NASA Commercial Crew Program (CCP) contract was spotted on June 3rd. Without leaving much room for interpretation, the contract tweak states that SpaceX is now “[allowed to reuse] the Falcon 9 launch vehicle and Crew Dragon spacecraft beginning with” its second operational astronaut launch, known as Post Certification Mission-2 (PCM-2) or Crew-2.”
Teslarati.com — June 9th, 2020
A few short months after that discovery, NASA itself specifically announced that it had given SpaceX the go-ahead to reuse Demo-2 Crew Dragon capsule C206 and Crew-1 Falcon 9 booster B1061 on Crew-2, the company’s second operational astronaut launch. Scheduled no earlier than March 31st, 2021, Crew-2 will most likely launch before the Crew-1 Crew Dragon departs the space station and returns its four crew members to Earth, a milestone expected sometime in April.
For almost anyone who has followed NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP) and its attitude towards SpaceX’s reusability efforts from the beginning, the space agency’s rapid willingness to trust its most important cargo – humans – to flight-proven Dragons and Falcon 9 boosters came as a huge surprise. If SpaceX is able to reuse both capsule C206 and booster B1061 as planned, Crew-2 will without a doubt be the most significant milestone in commercial spaceflight history, simultaneously proving that astronauts can be safely launched on commercial flight-proven rockets and spacecraft.
Of course, while Demo-2 Crew Dragon capsule C206 may have already been successfully recovered, SpaceX still had to land Falcon 9 booster B1061 and safely return it to port after Crew-1 before it could consider reusing it on Crew-2. Based on the rocket’s appearance upon its arrival at Port Canaveral, B1061 had an extremely close call. With what can be intuited from observation alone, it appears that sometime after B1061 landed and before the drone ship’s tank-like ‘Octagrabber’ robot could secure the booster, a stray swell or sudden burst of high seas must have bucked Just Read The Instructions about, causing B1061 to slide around on the slippery deck.
That would explain why the Falcon 9 first stage arrived in port on one of the far corners of drone ship JRTI – also sign that B1061 likely hit the yellow barrier included specifically to prevent boosters from sliding off drone ship decks. At the same time, B1061 must have had a moderately rough landing, causing at least one of its four legs to expend a large portion of a single-use shock absorber called a “crush core,” leaving the booster sitting at an angle. Based on photos of the arrival, that tilt likely left JRTI’s Octagrabber unable to latch onto all four of Falcon 9’s hold-down clamps, forcing recovery technicians to improvise and manually chain the rocket to the deck where the robotic solution fell short.
Thankfully, the SpaceX recovery team’s apparent heroics and luck proved to be enough and the sturdy Falcon 9 booster was returned to dry land without issue, lifted off of JRTI’s deck around 24 hours after arriving in port. Based on photos of the crush cores at the bottom tip of each leg, B1061’s rough landing and eventful journey was fairly mild as far as they come and, as CEO Elon Musk notes, crush core replacement is likely all that’s needed to make the rocket good as new.
Had B1061 been lost at sea, Crew-2 would have almost certainly been delayed to give SpaceX enough time to come up with an entirely new Falcon 9 first stage. Luckily for SpaceX, that didn’t happen and the company’s plans to launch astronauts on the flight-proven booster are still in play.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
