

News
SpaceX’s mystery October launch identified as a US spy satellite
A week after signs of the mission first appeared, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) has confirmed that SpaceX’s mystery October launch will carry a new spy satellite.
Known as NROL-108, the mission is intriguing for several reasons, ranging from its implied launch trajectory, the rocket likely to launch it, and the secrecy surrounding it. While both NRO satellite launches and what the agency generally does are both highly secretive, it’s still extremely uncommon for a US government launch of any kind to remain secret just one month prior to liftoff.
For SpaceX, the mysterious Zuma mission is the only US mission in recent memory to top the level of secrecy NROL-108 is shrouded in, remaining essentially unannounced and unclaimed by any government agency before, during, and after launch. However, a separate launch completed around half a year prior to Zuma helps shed light on SpaceX’s latest surprise contract.
The only mission NROL-108 is reminiscent of is actually SpaceX’s first launch for the NRO – NROL-76. Launched in May 2017, the payload – believed to be involved in some kind of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) test of proximity operations – remains classified and almost entirely a mystery to this day. The most notable thing about the mission was the fact that the spacecraft repeatedly made close passes to the International Space Station (ISS) – incredibly unusual insofar as NASA and Russia retain strict control over what can and cannot approach the crewed outpost.
Like NROL-76, NROL-108 will launch on a Falcon 9 rocket, while the mission’s booster will be permitted to attempt a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) landing back on land. For Falcon 9, an RTLS booster landing fundamentally implies that the payload launched is lightweight, heading to LEO, or some combination of the two. While NROL-76 was similar in that regard, the NRO revealed NROL-76 and confirmed that SpaceX would launch the mission a full 10 months prior to the launch date.
For NROL-108, the NRO only confirmed its SpaceX launch plans after FCC documents revealed some kind of mystery mission scheduled in October 2020. Even for the NRO, revealing a launch less than a month prior to liftoff is thoroughly abnormal.
Also abnormal: barring SpaceX managing to somehow slip an entire building-sized Falcon 9 booster from Los Angeles to Cape Canaveral, NROL-108 will likely mark the espionage agency’s inaugural launch on a commercial flight-proven rocket. SpaceX technically has at least three new Falcon 9 boosters in various stages of preparation for NASA and US military launches in October TBD (GPS III SV04) and November (Crew-1, Sentinel 6A) but all three are firmly spoken for.
According to the NRO’s official confirmation with SpaceflightNow, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch NROL-108 no earlier than (NET) October 25th. The company is faced with an expansive Q4 2020 manifest, including GPS III SV04 (October TBD), Sirius XM’s newest radio satellite (NET early November), the Sentinel 6A oceanography satellite (NET November 10th), Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut launch (NET mid November), the first launch of Cargo Dragon 2 (NET November 22nd), a Turkish communications satellite (NET November 30th), and several more Starlink missions.
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Investor's Corner
Tesla Q3 deliveries could exceed expectations: Wolfe Research
“Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) could deliver a stronger-than-expected third quarter, as per Wolfe Research, which stated that the EV maker’s vehicle deliveries could reach between 465,000 and 470,000 units this Q3 2025.
Such results would represent a 22% increase from Q2, topping consensus estimates of 445,000. “Q3 is poised to be a strong quarter,” the firm noted.
U.S. and China demand
In the U.S., Wolfe attributed part of the volume lift to consumers accelerating purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 federal EV tax credit. The firm is also optimistic about China’s deliveries, which the firm noted is trending above prior expectations. Wolfe estimated 165,000–170,000 deliveries in China for the third quarter, or about 10,000 more than its earlier forecast, as noted n a Yahoo Finance report.
The firm noted that these figures do not yet include meaningful contributions from the newly launched Model Y L. “We estimate 165-170k deliveries in Q3, or ~10k above our prior est,” Wolfe stated, though these volumes “largely do not reflect the recent launch of the Model Y L.”
Earnings outlook
Wolfe noted that it expects Tesla’s Q3 earnings per share to fall between $0.55 and $0.60, which is above the current consensus of $0.49 per share. The firm forecasts automotive gross margins, excluding regulatory credits, of about 16.5% to 17%.
Looking ahead, Wolfe warned that Q4 could prove more challenging due to U.S. demand being pulled forward by tax incentives. Still, Wolfe suggested that factors like stronger seasonal demand in China and Europe could become tailwinds that could help the company’s volumes in the fourth quarter. The ramp and rollout of the Model Y L and upcoming affordable models could also help bolster the company’s Q4 volumes.
News
Tesla China deliveries projected to hit 72,000 in September: Deutsche Bank
Deutsche Bank’s estimate represents a 27% increase from August’s figures.

Tesla’s sales momentum in China is expected to rise this month, with Deutsche Bank estimating about 72,000 vehicle deliveries for September 2025.
Deutsche Bank’s estimate represents a 27% increase from August 2025, but is roughly flat compared to the same month last year.
Model Y L launch boosts order flow
Dealer feedback compiled by Deutsche Bank suggests that Tesla China’s new orders in September could reach around 73,000 units, which is roughly up 14% year-over-year, as noted in a CNEV Post report. The increase is attributed in no small part to the Model Y L, a six-seat long-wheelbase variant of the best-selling all-electric crossover that was launched last month.
Deliveries for the new model began earlier this September, with current orders scheduled for deliveries in November, as per Tesla China’s official website. Analysts also noted that the Model Y L could be a key driver of interest, particularly among larger households looking for vehicles that have higher seating capacity.
Tesla China’s insurance registrations
Tesla’s insurance registrations in China reached 46,950 units in the first three weeks of September 2025, pointing to a steady pace of deliveries for the month. For context, Tesla delivered 57,152 vehicles in August 2025, as per data from the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). That figure represents a decrease of about 10% year-on-year, but an increase of over 40% from July 2025’s 40,617 units.
Deutsche Bank’s September projection, if proven accurate, would mark Tesla’s strongest monthly performance since the summer slowdown. China is still critical to Tesla’s overall delivery outlook heading into Q4, and the best-selling Model Y is still expected to play a central role in the company’s sales in the country.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk: Trillionaire Tesla pay package is about influence, not wealth
The 2025 CEO Performance Award, worth up to $900 billion in TSLA stock, could make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire,

Elon Musk recently addressed his proposed Tesla 2025 CEO Performance Award on X, highlighting that his concerns are about influence, not personal wealth.
The 2025 CEO Performance Award, worth up to $900 billion in TSLA stock, could make Elon Musk the world’s first trillionaire, provided that he hits incredibly ambitious targets for the electric vehicle maker.
Tesla’s ambitious targets
Musk shared his thoughts in a response to an X post that referenced his compensation package. “It’s not about ‘compensation,’ but about me having enough influence over Tesla to ensure safety if we build millions of robots.
“If I can just get kicked out in the future by activist shareholder advisory firms who don’t even own Tesla shares themselves, I’m not comfortable with that future,” Musk wrote in his post.
Tesla’s new performance award would grant Musk shares as the company grows from today’s $1.1 trillion valuation to an incredible $8.5 trillion within a decade. At that level, Tesla would become the world’s largest company by valuation by a notable margin, eclipsing today’s top companies such as Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft.
Massive product goals
Elon Musk’s 2025 CEO Performance Award will not be easy to accomplish. To earn his award, Musk would have to lead Tesla an operating profit of $400 billion anually, a substantial increase from today’s $17 billion annually.
Musk’s influence would grow alongside Tesla’s valuation, with his stake rising from 13% to about 25%. Tesla’s board emphasized in its filing that retaining Musk is fundamental to hitting these milestones.
The package extends beyond financials, as it also ties compensation to milestones in Tesla’s core products and emerging technologies. These include the delivery of 20 million vehicles cumulatively, 10 million active Full Self-Driving subscriptions, and the deployment of 1 million robots, and the rollout of 1 million Robotaxis.
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