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SpaceX’s mystery October launch identified as a US spy satellite

SpaceX has launched two known-to-be spy satellites, one of which was claimed by the NRO (post-launch booster landing pictured here). (SpaceX)

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A week after signs of the mission first appeared, the National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) has confirmed that SpaceX’s mystery October launch will carry a new spy satellite.

Known as NROL-108, the mission is intriguing for several reasons, ranging from its implied launch trajectory, the rocket likely to launch it, and the secrecy surrounding it. While both NRO satellite launches and what the agency generally does are both highly secretive, it’s still extremely uncommon for a US government launch of any kind to remain secret just one month prior to liftoff.

For SpaceX, the mysterious Zuma mission is the only US mission in recent memory to top the level of secrecy NROL-108 is shrouded in, remaining essentially unannounced and unclaimed by any government agency before, during, and after launch. However, a separate launch completed around half a year prior to Zuma helps shed light on SpaceX’s latest surprise contract.

A Block 3 Falcon 9 booster. (Tom Cross)

The only mission NROL-108 is reminiscent of is actually SpaceX’s first launch for the NRO – NROL-76. Launched in May 2017, the payload – believed to be involved in some kind of Low Earth Orbit (LEO) test of proximity operations – remains classified and almost entirely a mystery to this day. The most notable thing about the mission was the fact that the spacecraft repeatedly made close passes to the International Space Station (ISS) – incredibly unusual insofar as NASA and Russia retain strict control over what can and cannot approach the crewed outpost.

Like NROL-76, NROL-108 will launch on a Falcon 9 rocket, while the mission’s booster will be permitted to attempt a return-to-launch-site (RTLS) landing back on land. For Falcon 9, an RTLS booster landing fundamentally implies that the payload launched is lightweight, heading to LEO, or some combination of the two. While NROL-76 was similar in that regard, the NRO revealed NROL-76 and confirmed that SpaceX would launch the mission a full 10 months prior to the launch date.

For NROL-108, the NRO only confirmed its SpaceX launch plans after FCC documents revealed some kind of mystery mission scheduled in October 2020. Even for the NRO, revealing a launch less than a month prior to liftoff is thoroughly abnormal.

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Also abnormal: barring SpaceX managing to somehow slip an entire building-sized Falcon 9 booster from Los Angeles to Cape Canaveral, NROL-108 will likely mark the espionage agency’s inaugural launch on a commercial flight-proven rocket. SpaceX technically has at least three new Falcon 9 boosters in various stages of preparation for NASA and US military launches in October TBD (GPS III SV04) and November (Crew-1, Sentinel 6A) but all three are firmly spoken for.

According to the NRO’s official confirmation with SpaceflightNow, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch NROL-108 no earlier than (NET) October 25th. The company is faced with an expansive Q4 2020 manifest, including GPS III SV04 (October TBD), Sirius XM’s newest radio satellite (NET early November), the Sentinel 6A oceanography satellite (NET November 10th), Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut launch (NET mid November), the first launch of Cargo Dragon 2 (NET November 22nd), a Turkish communications satellite (NET November 30th), and several more Starlink missions.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla needs to confront these concerns as its ‘wartime CEO’ returns: Wedbush

Tesla will report earnings for Q2 tomorrow. Here’s what Wedbush expects.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is set to report its earnings for the second quarter of 2025 tomorrow, and although Wall Street firm Wedbush is bullish as the company appears to have its “wartime CEO” back, it is looking for answers to a few concerns investors could have moving forward.

The firm’s lead analyst on Tesla, Dan Ives, has kept a bullish sentiment regarding the stock, even as Musk’s focus seemed to be more on politics and less on the company.

However, Musk has recently returned to his past attitude, which is being completely devoted and dedicated to his companies. He even said he would be sleeping in his office and working seven days a week:


Nevertheless, Ives has continued to push suggestions forward about what Tesla should do, what its potential valuation could be in the coming years with autonomy, and how it will deal with the loss of the EV tax credit.

Tesla preps to expand Robotaxi geofence once again, answering Waymo

These questions are at the forefront of what Ives suggests Tesla should confront on tomorrow’s call, he wrote in a note to investors that was released on Tuesday morning:

“Clearly, losing the EV tax credits with the recent Beltway Bill will be a headwind to Tesla and competitors in the EV landscape looking ahead, and this cash cow will become less of the story (and FCF) in 2026. We would expect some directional guidance on this topic during the conference call. Importantly, we anticipate deliveries globally to rebound in 2H led by some improvement on the key China front with the Model Y refresh a catalyst.”

Ives and Wedbush believe the autonomy could be worth $1 trillion for Tesla, especially as it continues to expand throughout Austin and eventually to other territories.

In the near term, Ives expects Tesla to continue its path of returning to growth:

“While the company has seen significant weakness in China in previous quarters given the rising competitive landscape across EVs, Tesla saw a rebound in June with sales increasing for the first time in eight months reflecting higher demand for its updated Model Y as deliveries in the region are starting to slowly turn a corner with China representing the heart and lungs of the TSLA growth story. Despite seeing more low-cost models enter the market from Chinese OEMs like BYD, Nio, Xpeng, and others, the company’s recent updates to the Model Y spurred increased demand while the accelerated production ramp-up in Shanghai for this refresh cycle reflected TSLA’s ability to meet rising demand in the marquee region. If Musk continues to lead and remain in the driver’s seat at this pace, we believe Tesla is on a path to an accelerated growth path over the coming years with deliveries expected to ramp in the back-half of 2025 following the Model Y refresh cycle.”

Tesla will report earnings tomorrow at market close. Wedbush maintained its ‘Outperform’ rating and held its $500 price target.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla (TSLA) Q2 2025 earnings call: What investors want to know

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is set to report its second-quarter 2025 financial results on Wednesday, July 23, after markets close. With this in mind, Tesla investors have aggregated their top questions for the company at its upcoming Q&A session.

The upcoming earnings report follows a mixed delivery quarter. Tesla produced over 410,000 vehicles and delivered more than 384,000 units globally. In the energy segment, Tesla deployed 9.6 GWh of storage products, continuing momentum for its Megapack business. Tesla’s vehicle sales are currently down year-over-year, though a good part of this was due to the Model Y changeover in the first quarter.

Following are Tesla investors’ top questions for management, as aggregated in Say.

  1. Can you give us some insight (into) how robotaxis have been performing so far and what rate you expect to expand in terms of vehicles, geofence, cities, and supervisors?
  2. What are the key technical and regulatory hurdles still remaining for unsupervised FSD to be available for personal use? Timeline?
  3. What specific factory tasks is Optimus currently performing, and what is the expected timeline for scaling production to enable external sales? How does Tesla envision Optimus contributing to revenue in the next 2–3 years?
  4. Can you provide an update on the development and production timeline for Tesla’s more affordable models? How will these models balance cost reduction with profitability, and what impact do you expect on demand in the current economic climate?
  5. When do you anticipate customer vehicles to receive unsupervised FSD?
  6. Are there any news for HW3 users getting retrofits or upgrades? Will they get HW4 or some future version of HW5?
  7. Have any meaningful Optimus milestones changed for this year or next, and will thousands of Optimus be performing tasks in Tesla factories by year-end?
  8. Will there be a new AI day to explain the advancements the Autopilot, Optimus, and Dojo/chip teams have made over the past several years? We still do not know much about HW4.
  9. Cybertruck ramp is now a year in, but sales have lagged other models. How are you thinking through boosting sales of such an incredible product?
  10. When will there be a new CEO compensation package presented and considered for the next stage of the company’s growth?

Tesla will release its Q2 update letter on its Investor Relations website after markets close on Wednesday. A live Q&A webcast with management will then follow at 4:30 p.m. CT (5:30 p.m. ET) to discuss the company’s performance and outlook.

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Tesla Model Y becomes dual champ in China’s vehicle sales rankings

The Model Y’s recent accomplishments suggest that Tesla really has created something special with the all-electric crossover.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

The Tesla Model Y was recently deemed a double champion in China, with the all-electric crossover topping two notable sales charts in the country’s automotive sector. 

The Model Y’s recent accomplishments suggest that Tesla really has created something special with the all-electric crossover, as it has continued to outsell even vehicles that are newer and more affordable. 

Tesla China’s announcement

In a post on Weibo, Tesla China VP Grace Tao highlighted that the Model Y topped China’s sales of SUVs, as well as vehicles that are priced in the 200,000-400,000 yuan range. This is quite remarkable, as the Model Y is one of the more costly entries in both lists. She also invited everyone to try out the vehicle for themselves. “You will know the champion strength after a try,” the Tesla VP wrote.

For the first half of the year, the Tesla Model Y sold 171,491 units domestically in China. This number was enough to make it the country’s best-selling SUV and vehicle priced in the 200,000-400,000 yuan range, but it could still easily be higher in the second half of 2025.

This was because Tesla initiated a changeover in Gigafactory Shanghai to shift the facility’s Model Y line to the vehicle’s new iteration. Had Tesla sold the Model Y in full force during the first half of 2025 in China, the vehicle’s domestic sales figures would have been even more impressive.

Model Y L coming

Tesla China’s Model Y sales could see a notable boost in the second half of the year due to the addition of the Model Y L, an extended wheelbase version of the all-electric crossover. Tesla is yet to announce the details for the Model Y L, though the vehicle was listed in the MIIT regulatory catalog as a six-seater. This is game-changing, as the Model Y’s previous seven-seat configurations have caught criticism for being far too cramped and unusable for adults.

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With the six-seat Model Y in the company’s lineup, Tesla would be able to compete with popular vehicles from rivals like BYD, which have made it a point to release spacious three-row vehicles that are designed to carry the whole family. Provided that the Model Y L is priced correctly, it could very well raise Tesla’s vehicle sales this year.

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