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SpaceX’s NASA astronaut launch debut jumps its place in line, now up next

Barring surprises, SpaceX's next launch will be the company's first NASA astronaut launch ever. (Richard Angle)

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According to NASASpaceflight.com reporter Michael Baylor, SpaceX’s Starlink-7 satellite launch has been indefinitely delayed due to drone ship constraints, meaning that the company’s Crew Dragon astronaut launch is now up next.

As a result, SpaceX’s next orbital launch has been delayed by at least eight days. In return, however, that launch will arguably be the most important in the company’s 18-year history, (hopefully) marking the biggest step by far SpaceX has taken towards its main goals of democratizing spaceflight and enabling the sustainable, permanent settlement of Mars. Known as Demonstration Mission 2 (Demo-2), it will simultaneously be the first crewed launch under NASA’s Commercial Crew Program (CCP) and SpaceX’s first astronaut launch ever and is scheduled to lift off no earlier than (NET) 4:33 pm EDT (20:33 UTC), May 27th.

Formerly scheduled to launch no earlier than (NET) May 7th, 17th, 18th, and 19th after a number of technical and weather-related delays, SpaceX’s 8th 60-satellite Starlink launch has now been delayed until sometime after Crew Dragon’s late-May inaugural astronaut launch. According to NASASpaceflight and speculated about in-depth on unofficial forums in the days prior, the schedule swap decision was made due to constraints in SpaceX’s drone ship. While simple on the face of things, the change does reveal a bit of the hidden strategy behind SpaceX’s management of both its rocket fleet and the ships that recover them.

SpaceX’s next launch may well be the company’s NASA astronaut launch debut. (SpaceX)

Compounded by multiple largely unrelated delays, including weather in the planned booster and fairing landing zones, the Starlink-7/Demo-2 launch swap was caused by the simple fact that SpaceX only has one operational drone ship on the East Coast. The company coincidentally began sea trials with a second drone ship the very same day that Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) headed out to sea to catch Starlink-7’s Falcon 9 booster. However, that second ship has been extensively upgraded and will likely take several weeks of sea trials before it can be declared ready for its first East Coast rocket recovery attempt.

B1048 landed for the first time on drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) on July 27th. (Pauline Acalin)
Pictured here in June 2019, drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI) looks almost completely different ~12 months later. (Pauline Acalin)

For each drone ship booster landing, it takes at least a week for the ship to be towed several hundred miles downrange to the recovery zone and at least as long to return to port. Add in the time required to safe and secure a landed Falcon 9 or Heavy booster, navigate sea states to prevent damage to – or the outright loss of – that booster, and the work needed to safely lift it off the drone ship’s deck onto dry land and it can easily be 9-10 days before a drone ship is ready for another landing.

At the same time, SpaceX’s turnaround record is about eight days between booster landings. Had SpaceX persevered and attempted to launch Starlink-7 on May 19th and Crew Dragon’s inaugural astronaut launch on May 27th, it’s possible that things would have worked out, with both booster landings occurring on schedule on the same drone ship. However, given just how much of a priority Crew Dragon Demo-2 is compared to an internal Starlink launch and a tropical storm threatening to delay Starlink-7’s launch and landing even further, SpaceX clearly decided that it just wasn’t worth the risk.

60 Starlink satellites depart Falcon 9’s second stage. (SpaceX)
Crew Dragon capsule C206 is nearly ready for SpaceX’s inaugural astronaut launch. (SpaceX)

Given the extraordinary importance of Demo-2, set to be the first time the United States has launched its own astronauts into orbit in almost nine years, it’s not exactly surprising that SpaceX has chosen conservatism this time around and prioritized its inaugural NASA astronaut launch. According to Spaceflight Now, the Crew Dragon capsule assigned to SpaceX’s inaugural NASA astronaut launch – pictured above – actually joined the new Falcon 9 rocket that will launch it at Pad 39A on May 15th. Now fully fueled with liquid hydrazine and nitrogen tetroxide, the spacecraft could be mated with Falcon 9’s upper stage at any moment (if it hasn’t been already).

Once fully assembled, Falcon 9 booster B1058, a new Falcon 9 upper stage, Crew Dragon capsule C206, and an expendable trunk section will be rolled horizontally out to Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Pad 39A to perform a crucial pre-launch static fire test. Rollout and static fire operations could begin at any point within the next few days. It remains to be seen whether drone ship OCISLY will remain in the Atlantic Ocean or head back to Port Canaveral before departing again to catch booster B1058.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Cybertruck

Tesla Cybertruck is getting a big security upgrade

“Cybertruck was not 100% carryover in execution like S3XY, so it required work.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla confirmed today that a massive Cybertruck security feature is on the way soon, and it is one that owners have been asking about for a long time.

Like all Teslas, Cybertruck has the excellent security feature known as “Sentry Mode.” The feature essentially turns your Tesla into a moving security camera, recording any event that happens nearby.

It has been used to solve crimes such as vandalism and burglary, and even used by police departments to solve other, high-profile crimes.

Tesla quietly added this extra Sentry Mode feature to deter vandals

However, Cybertruck has been missing one key feature of Sentry Mode: the use of the B-Pillar camera has not been enabled, leaving one of the most vandalized and targeted vehicles in the United States with a weakness.

One person who has been vocal about it is Tesla Cybertruck enthusiast Greggertruck, who has been pushing for answers for months. He finally got his answer from Cybertruck Vehicle Program Manager Siddhant Awasthi:

“It will come soon! Cybertruck was not 100% carryover in execution like SX3Y so it required work. Team has finished work on this and just need to make sure it’s validated and runs reliably (which it should for its feature).”

It sounds as if Tesla’s issue was something they similarly experienced when deploying Full Self-Driving to Cybertruck. The other four Tesla vehicles were able to use FSD because they’re all relatively similar in ride height and overall functionality. They share tons of similarities.

Cybertruck did not get FSD right away because Tesla still had to work on the differences between it and the other cars in the lineup. As Awasthi said, “Cybertruck was not 100% carryover in execution like S3XY, so it required work.”

Tesla Cybertruck FSD release expected for Sept, Park Assist to come first

It sounds as if Tesla is close to resolving some of the more intricate details of adding the functionality, and it was just a matter of time before it figured out the issue.

The release of the B-Pillar camera being active during Sentry Mode events on Cybertruck will likely come in a software update in the coming weeks.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla investors may be in for a big surprise

All signs point toward a strong quarter for Tesla in terms of deliveries. Investors could be in for a surprise.

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(Credit: Tesla)

Tesla investors have plenty of things to be ecstatic about, considering the company’s confidence in autonomy, AI, robotics, cars, and energy. However, many of them may be in for a big surprise as the end of the $7,500 EV tax credit nears. On September 30, it will be gone for good.

This has put some skepticism in the minds of some investors: the lack of a $7,500 discount for buying a clean energy vehicle may deter many people from affording Tesla’s industry-leading EVs.

Tesla warns consumers of huge, time-sensitive change coming soon

The focus on quarterly deliveries, while potentially waning in terms of importance to the future, is still a big indicator of demand, at least as of now. Of course, there are other factors, most of them economic.

The big push to make the most of the final quarter of the EV tax credit is evident, as Tesla is reminding consumers on social media platforms and through email communications that the $7,500 discount will not be here forever. It will be gone sooner rather than later.

It appears the push to maximize sales this quarter before having to assess how much they will be impacted by the tax credit’s removal is working.

Delivery Wait Time Increases

Wait times for Tesla vehicles are increasing due to what appears to be increased demand for the company’s vehicles. Recently, Model Y delivery wait times were increased from 1-3 weeks to 4-6 weeks.

This puts extra pressure on consumers to pull the trigger on an order, as delivery must be completed by the cutoff date of September 30.

Delivery wait times may have gone up due to an increase in demand as consumers push to make a purchase before losing that $7,500 discount.

More People are Ordering

A post on X by notable Tesla influencer Sawyer Merritt anecdotally shows he has been receiving more DMs than normal from people stating that they’re ordering vehicles before the end of the tax credit:

It’s not necessarily a confirmation of more orders, but it could be an indication that things are certainly looking that way.

Why Investors Could Be Surprised

Tesla investors could see some positive movement in stock price following the release of the Q3 delivery report, especially if all signs point to increased demand this quarter.

We reported previously that this could end up being a very strong rebounding quarter for Tesla, with so many people taking advantage of the tax credit.

Whether the delivery figures will be higher than normal remains to be seen. But all indications seem to point to Q3 being a very strong quarter for Tesla.

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Elon Musk

Tesla bear Guggenheim sees nearly 50% drop off in stock price in new note

Tesla bear Guggenheim does not see any upside in Robotaxi.

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tesla showroom
Credit: Tesla

Tesla bear Guggenheim is still among the biggest non-believers in the company’s overall mission and its devotion to solving self-driving.

In a new note to investors on Thursday, analyst Ronald Jewsikow reiterated his price target of $175, a nearly 50 percent drop off, with a ‘Sell’ rating, all based on skepticism regarding Tesla’s execution of the Robotaxi platform.

A few days ago, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said the company’s Robotaxi platform would open to the public in September, offering driverless rides to anyone in the Austin area within its geofence, which is roughly 90 square miles large.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

However, Jewsikow’s skepticism regarding this timeline has to do with what’s going on inside of the vehicles. The analyst was willing to give props to Robotaxi, saying that Musk’s estimation of a September public launch would be a “key step” in offering the service to a broader population.

Where Jewsikow’s real issue lies is with Tesla’s lack of transparency on the Safety Monitors, and how bulls are willing to overlook their importance.

Much of this bullish mentality comes from the fact that the Monitors are not sitting in the driver’s seat, and they don’t have anything to do with the overall operation of the vehicle.

Musk also said last month that reducing Safety Monitors could come “in a month or two.”

Instead, they’re just there to make sure everything runs smoothly.

Jewsikow said:

“While safety drivers will remain, and no timeline has been provided for their removal, bulls have been willing to overlook the optics of safety drivers in TSLA vehicles, and we see no reason why that would change now.”

He also commented on Musk’s recent indication that Tesla was working on a 10x parameter count that could help make Full Self-Driving even more accurate. It could be one of the pieces to Tesla solving autonomy.

Jewsikow added:

“Perhaps most importantly for investors bullish on TSLA for the fleet of potential FSD-enabled vehicles today, the 10x higher parameter count will be able to run on the current generation of FSD hardware and inference compute.”

Elon Musk teases crazy new Tesla FSD model: here’s when it’s coming

Tesla shares are down just about 2 percent today, trading at $332.47.

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