News
SpaceX wins NASA approval to launch astronauts on reused rockets and spacecraft
SpaceX appears to have won NASA’s approval to launch astronauts on reused Falcon 9 rockets and Crew Dragon spacecraft a matter of days after the company’s astronaut launch debut went off without a hitch.
Ever since SpaceX began landing and reusing orbital-class Falcon 9 boosters some 15 months after it won a NASA contract to develop Crew Dragon, the obvious possibility that the two groundbreaking technologies might one day meet has always floated just under the surface. Almost without fail, most joint NASA/SpaceX press conferences will receive a question or two about whether either party is thinking about or working towards astronaut launches on flight-proven spacecraft. Encouraged by the fact that partner Boeing’s separate Starliner spacecraft was sold to NASA with reusability in mind from the start, those questions continued up until (and after) the day SpaceX became the first private company in history to launch astronauts into orbit.
In a wholly unexpected turn of events, a modification to SpaceX’s ~$3.1 billion NASA Commercial Crew Program (CCP) contract was spotted on June 3rd. Without leaving much room for interpretation, the contract tweak states that SpaceX is now “[allowed to reuse] the Falcon 9 launch vehicle and Crew Dragon spacecraft beginning with” its second operational astronaut launch, known as Post Certification Mission-2 (PCM-2) or Crew-2. Given the spectacular, hiccup-free success of SpaceX’s inaugural astronaut launch and International Space Station (ISS) arrival just 3-4 days prior, it’s safe to say that NASA is extremely happy with the results of the mission.
Without a shred of doubt, SpaceX has worked tirelessly for years to earn enough of NASA’s technical trust to permit crewed launches on flight-proven hardware, a possibility that even the optimists in the crowd assumed was distant at best. It has almost always been an uphill battle for SpaceX – a fact made especially clear when framed beside partner Boeing. An inherently conservative organization, NASA has repeatedly given Boeing and its more traditional Starliner spacecraft and development approach the benefit of the doubt while frequently tearing into the nooks and crannies of SpaceX and Crew Dragon over half a decade of cooperation.
While functioning more like an anchor when SpaceX finds itself working with conservative, stubborn organizations like NASA and US military branches, the company’s wholly non-traditional style of development has secured technical success after technical success. Over the course of the second half of SpaceX’s 20-mission NASA Commercial Resupply Services 1 (CRS1) contract, the company has still managed to successfully launch dozens of tons of cargo to the space station with flight-proven spacecraft and boosters. From CRS-11 to CRS-20, five missions featured reused Falcon 9 boosters and all but one of those 10 flights featured once or even twice-flown Cargo Dragon spacecraft.
In short, SpaceX has demonstrated more than a dozen times to NASA that it’s fully capable of building, launching, and reusing orbital-class rockets and spacecraft. Additionally, before an unrelated design flaw destroyed the spacecraft during post-recovery testing, SpaceX successfully launched, recovered, and refurbished Crew Dragon capsule C201 in March 2019, demonstrating its dramatically improved reusability. While suborbital, Crew Dragon C205’s January 2020 In-Flight Abort (IFA) test also likely helped demonstrate the new spacecraft’s reusability and gave NASA more experience with the reuse of Falcon 9 Block 5 rockets as B1046’s fourth launch.
Every step along the way, SpaceX has put its money where its mouth is and proven that it’s more than capable of doing what much larger, more traditional companies have only claimed to be capable of – and often months or even years before its competitors and for hundreds of millions to billions of dollars less. While it’s much more likely that NASA has yet to actually certify SpaceX’s Crew Dragon spacecraft and Falcon 9 boosters for flight-proven astronaut launches, the June 3rd contract modification – at a minimum – signifies the space agency’s expeditious intent to do so. What is unambiguous is the schedule it lays out: SpaceX could potentially launch astronauts on a flight-proven rocket and spacecraft as early as its second operational taxi mission to the ISS.
Known as PCM-2 or Crew-2, the mission is scheduled to follow Crew Dragon’s first operational astronaut launch – Crew-1 – by roughly six months. Contingent upon Crew Dragon Demo-2’s safe return of NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley later this year, Crew-1 is tentatively scheduled to launch on August 30th, although it could potentially launch even sooner. If successful, Crew-2 should follow as soon as mid-2021 and could potentially reuse Crew-1’s Falcon 9 booster and the Demo-2 or Crew-1 Dragon capsule.
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Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
