SpaceX
SpaceX’s crewed Dragon launch debut likely to slip into 2020 as NASA pursues “realistic” dates
In a recent blog post, NASA made it clear that changes happening to leadership within the agency – specifically within the Human Exploration and Operations Directorate – are impacting the timelines to return astronauts to the International Space Station(ISS) from US soil. Agency conflicts are just the latest of several setbacks that have impacted the schedule of SpaceX’s crewed Crew Dragon launch debut.
Initially, the SpaceX Demo-2 mission set to carry NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the ISS was slated to occur in the summer of 2019. That demonstration flight has since dropped off of the NASA launches and landings schedule, at least through October. SpaceX is now targeting a Demo-2 launch no earlier than December 2019 but an array of critical milestones must be completed to achieve that goal and both SpaceX and NASA have been keen to express that a crewed Crew Dragon launch in 2019 is a huge stretch.
According to the recent blog post, “NASA Administrator (Jim Bridenstine) has directed all programs in the Human Exploration and Operations Directorate to reexamine flight dates once new leadership is in place to deliver realistic schedule plans.” It is very likely that these new schedule plans will push the Demo-2 launch target into 2020.
Another roadblock that affects the timeline is the fact that SpaceX has yet to conduct an in-flight abort (IFA) test of the Crew Dragon capsule, meant to demonstrate the ability of the capsule’s SuperDraco thruster abort system to safely return crewmembers back to Earth in the event of an in-flight failure. SpaceX’s IFA has been delayed by multiple months after a catastrophic anomaly during an attempted April 2019 static fire test of the abort system resulted in the complete loss of the Crew Dragon capsule (C201), originally assigned to support the IFA. Although the capsule was destroyed, valuable lessons were learned about the pressurization and propulsion systems of Crew Dragon, particular “the flammability of the check valve’s titanium internal components” according to a July 15th statement released by SpaceX.
As a result of the loss of C201, the in-flight abort test must now use the Crew Dragon capsule (C205) originally intended for the Demo-2 to transport Behnken and Hurley to the ISS. The findings from the anomaly investigation identified changes to the SuperDraco thruster abort system that would need to be made to all capsules currently in production prior to any future flights. SpaceX states that “thorough testing and analysis of these mitigations has already begun in close coordination with NASA, and will be completed well in advance of future flights.”
Pending SpaceX’s modification of Dragon 2 hardware and NASA’s approval, a new launch date for the in-flight abort test could be announced as early as August. According to SpaceX CEO, Elon Musk, Falcon 9 Block 5 booster B1048.3 – the second booster to successfully complete three launches and landings – will likely support Crew Dragon’s in-flight abort test, although there have been indications from NASASpaceflight.com that B1046.3 is also a candidate.
Step by step
Following a successful in-flight abort test and recovery of the Crew Dragon capsule, a joint flight readiness review will be conducted by SpaceX, NASA’s Human Exploration and Operations Directorate (HEOD), the Commercial Crew Program (CCP), and the International Space Station Program to settle on a launch date for Demo-2. This meeting will ensure that all parties are well-versed in the procedures required to support crewed spaceflight missions from US soil after an almost decade-long hiatus.
Another anticipated safety procedure that is assumed to be tested prior to the designation of a crewed flight date is a full rehearsal of emergency escape procedures at Launch Complex 39A (LC-39A), located at Kennedy Space Center, Florida. A joint version of this test was recently completed by NASA, Boeing, and United Launch Alliance in anticipation of crewed flights launching from Space Launch Complex 41 on Cape Canaveral Air Force Station in Florida. As an escape system has not been necessary at LC-39A since the retirement of the Shuttle program, SpaceX and NASA may participate in a similar demonstration utilizing a recently installed zip-line egress system on the Fixed Service Structure of LC-39A.
Although there is some time remaining in the year for SpaceX and NASA to meet all pre-flight objectives, it seems more likely that a crewed SpaceX demonstration mission to the ISS will occur sometime in 2020. As NASA said “we are testing, learning and incorporating changes to improve the design and operation of these next-generation human space transportation systems. As a result, our providers have improved the safety of these systems, and the effect of these changes have impacted schedules.”
Finally, according to recent reports from a handful of Russian media outlets, Crew Dragon’s inaugural crewed launch is believed to be scheduled for absolutely no earlier than (NET) mid-December 2019, although all signs point to that date being purely for planning purposes. In short, Crew Dragon’s Demo-2 mission is all but guaranteed to slip into 2020, but those delays will (hopefully) result in a significantly safer and more reliable spacecraft.
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Tesla China’s first Megapack exports are headed for a big battery in Australia
The Tesla Megapack batteries are bound for Queensland’s Western Downs battery project.
A few days ago, Tesla announced that the first Megapack battery units from its Shanghai “Megafactory” were being shipped to Australia.
As per recent reports, the massive grid-scale Tesla batteries are bound for Queensland’s Western Downs battery project.
The Shanghai Megafactory
The Shanghai Megafactory is Tesla’s first battery storage factory outside the United States. Built close to Gigafactory Shanghai, the Shanghai Megafactory is expected to supply Megapack batteries to both China and foreign markets.
The Megapack represents a huge portion of Tesla Energy’s deployments. With 3.9 MWh of energy, Tesla notes that each Megapack is enough to power 3,600 homes for an hour. The Shanghai Megafactory has a capacity to produce 10,000 Megapacks per year to start.
Mike Snyder, vice president of Tesla, shared his optimism about the Shanghai Megafactory. “Megafactory gives us the ability to scale production and efficiency. We can lower logistics costs as well as product costs, and grow the business to new markets,” he stated.
Australia Battery Projects
As noted in a report from Renew Economy, the first Megapack shipments from the Shanghai Megafactory will be installed in the second stage of the Western Downs battery project, which is being built by Neoen. The Western Downs battery project involves a 460 MWp solar farm coupled with a 540 MW/1,080 MWh big battery system.
Tesla has also been listed as the battery supplier for the upcoming Calala battery in Tamworth, New South Wales, which will involve 138 Megapack units. The Megapacks for the Calala battery will likely be imported from the Shanghai Megafactory as well.
Data from Rosetta Analytics suggests that Tesla is currently the dominant player in Australia’s energy storage segment, with the company holding over 30% of the market. Tesla has become a notable presence in Australia’s energy sector for years, especially following the company’s buildout of the Hornsdale “big battery,” which was initially comprised of Tesla Powerpacks, in 2017.
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Starlink gets green light to launch internet services in Vietnam
Vietnam has given Starlink the green light. With mobile & aviation plans in the mix, SpaceX continues its push into Asia.
Starlink received the green light to launch its internet services in Vietnam.
The Vietnamese government noted SpaceX’s permission to launch Starlink services in the country is on a trial basis. Starlink’s trial period will last until the end of 2030. SpaceX has a subscriber limit of 600,000 within the trial period.
SpaceX can provide Starlink’s fixed and mobile internet service plans throughout Vietnam. It may also offer Starlink Aviation service plans.
According to Reuters, the Vietnamese government noted that there is no limit to foreign ownership of a service. It is uncertain if SpaceX has applied for a license to launch Starlink services in Vietnam.
Vietnam’s decision to permit Starlink services in the country differs from Italy’s decision to pause discussions regarding SpaceX’s internet service. According to Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto, discussions of a Starlink deal with SpaceX have “come to a standstill. Crosetto cites the controversy surrounding Elon Musk as the reason for the pause on a Starlink deal. Italy was discussing a potential $1.6 billion, 5-year Starlink contract with SpaceX.
SpaceX is also trying to launch Starlink in India. The aerospace company has already signed deals with two of India’s top telecom companies for Starlink services. However, Starlink is still waiting for regulatory approval.
While waiting for regulatory approvals and license processing, SpaceX continues to improve its Starlink services. Recently, news broke that the Elon Musk-led company has plans to launch a new Starlink dish with gigabit speeds.
Elon Musk
SpaceX’s Starlink dish with Gigabit Speeds leaves EU scrambling to catch up
SpaceX is preparing to launch a gigabit Starlink dish. Meanwhile, Europe is still searching for a Starlink alternative.
SpaceX is preparing to release a Starlink dish with gigabit speeds, likely leaving the European Union scrambling to catch up.
During a webinar for Starlink resellers, SpaceX mentioned the development of a new Starlink dish that would offer customers gigabit internet speeds. The new Starlink dish is expected to boost current download speeds of around 200 Mbps.
“Next generation, we’ll have smaller beams, more capacity per beam, lower latency,” noted SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell in 2024. She teased that Starlink speeds would reach as high as 2 gigabits with the next-generation dish.
EU plays catch up with SpaceX’s Starlink
While SpaceX prepares to provide customers with gigabit speeds, the European Union is still trying to catch up to Starlink’s current internet services.
The Foreign Minister of Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, accused Elon Musk of threatening to cut off Ukraine’s access to Starlink. The Polish Minister’s accusation came after Musk pointed out that Ukraine’s front line would collapse without Starlink.
Sikorski interpreted Musk’s words as a threat. Musk later issued a statement saying he would “never” cut Starlink services to Ukraine.
Despite Musk’s statement, the EU is considering alternatives to SpaceX’s Starlink. It will be difficult, given that the EU currently has no companies that can match SpaceX’s Starlink constellation.
The closest company in Europe to SpaceX’s Starlink is Eutelsat’s OneWeb constellation, which has around 650 satellites in lower earth orbit. In comparison, SpaceX reported having approximately 6,750 satellites in the Starlink constellation as of February 2025.
Even if Europe managed to match SpaceX’s current Starlink constellation, having Ukraine switch from one service to another would be complicated. Multiple countries are paying for Ukraine’s Starlink services, including the United States and Poland. On top of that, each country isn’t paying the same amount–some seem to be paying more than others.
In general, it doesn’t seem like Elon Musk can cut Ukraine’s access to Starlink on a whim.
Starlink Gigabit Dish Pending
SpaceX has a few boxes to check before releasing the Starlink gigabit dish. It will need to upgrade its Starlink constellation to harness a broader range of radio spectrum. But first, SpaceX must get clearance from the FCC to implement the upgrades.
PC Mag speculates that SpaceX could launch the Starlink gigabit dish later this year. The new dish’s release will depend on if SpaceX’s Starship can successfully deploy third-generation V3 Starlink satellites.
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