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SpaceX go for last launch of 2021 [webcast]

(Richard Angle)

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Update: Despite terrible weather, SpaceX and NASA are on track to attempt to launch Cargo Dragon’s CRS-24 space station resupply mission – also Falcon 9’s 31st and last launch of 2021. Tune in below around 4:45 am EDT (09:45 UTC), December 21st to watch the mission live.

(Richard Angle)

SpaceX has rolled out a rare new Falcon 9 booster for the company’s last launch of 2021, highlighting just how pervasive the company’s rocket reusability has become.

The mission – CRS-24, Cargo Dragon 2’s fourth International Space Station (ISS) resupply run – will be SpaceX’s 31st Falcon 9 launch of the year, handily beating the 26-launch record the company set in 2020. However, CRS-24 will be only the second time this year that SpaceX debuts an unflown (new) Falcon booster, meaning that all 29 other missions (~94%) successfully relied on flight-proven rockets.

In other words, in less than five years, SpaceX has gone from completing its very first Falcon 9 reuse (SES-10 – March 2017) to launching almost 30 times in one year without a single new booster. The only other time SpaceX flew a new booster this year was CRS-22, which successfully debuted Falcon 9 B1067 and the new Cargo Dragon 2 capsule C209 in June.

Six months later, Falcon 9 B1069 is scheduled to debut by launching Cargo Dragon 2 capsule C209 on its second mission to the ISS. Carrying approximately 3 tons (~6500 lb) of consumables, station parts, and science experiments, Dragon is set to lift off from Kennedy Space Center (KSC) Pad 39A no earlier than (NET) 5:06 am EDT (10:06 UTC) on Tuesday, December 21st. Weather is looking decidedly unfavorable, however, and CRS-24 currently runs a 70% chance of being scrubbed by poor conditions at Cape Canaveral and downrange in the Atlantic Ocean. Weather forecasts for a backup window on December 22nd currently predict a much better 60% chance of favorable conditions.

Regardless, when CRS-24 launches, it will mark a number of milestones and set several new records for SpaceX. Beyond firming up SpaceX’s record-breaking 31 launches this year, CRS-24 will also be the third Falcon launch in just 69 hours – less than three days. Before it, SpaceX’s three-launch record was most recently set in November 2020 when three Falcon 9 rockets launch Crew-1, Sentinel 6A, and Starlink V1 L15 a little over nine days (~217 hours) apart. If SpaceX can find a gap in the half-figurative clouds and launches on December 21st, it will beat that record by more than a factor of three.

Additionally, including Starlink 4-3 and NASA’s IXPE mission, CRS-24 will be SpaceX’s fifth orbital launch in December 2021 – the first time the company has launched more than four times in one month. Even more impressively, if CRS-24 lifts off before Thursday, December 23rd, it will actually be SpaceX’s fifth launch in less than three weeks. If it wasn’t December, SpaceX could have quite possibly squeezed a sixth launch into the last few days of the year. Instead, most SpaceXers will get some well-deserved time off before 2022 begins.

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Incredibly, even excluding Starlink missions, which made up more than half of SpaceX’s 2021 launches, the company has at least 39 commercial Falcon launches tentatively scheduled in 2022. If it wants to continue regular Starlink launches on top of its unprecedently packed manifest, it won’t be long at all before SpaceX’s next five-launch month.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla is not sparing any expense in ensuring the Cybercab is safe

Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

The Tesla Cybercab could very well be the safest taxi on the road when it is released and deployed for public use. This was, at least, hinted at by the intensive safety tests that Tesla seems to be putting the autonomous two-seater through at its Giga Texas crash test facility. 

Intensive crash tests

As per recent images from longtime Giga Texas watcher and drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer, Tesla seems to be very busy crash testing Cybercab units. Images shared by the longtime watcher showed 16 Cybercab prototypes parked near Giga Texas’ dedicated crash test facility just before the holidays. 

Tegtmeyer’s aerial photos showed the prototypes clustered outside the factory’s testing building. Some uncovered Cybercabs showed notable damage and one even had its airbags engaged. With Cybercab production expected to start in about 130 days, it appears that Tesla is very busy ensuring that its autonomous two-seater ends up becoming the safest taxi on public roads. 

Prioritizing safety

With no human driver controls, the Cybercab demands exceptional active and passive safety systems to protect occupants in any scenario. Considering Tesla’s reputation, it is then understandable that the company seems to be sparing no expense in ensuring that the Cybercab is as safe as possible.

Tesla’s focus on safety was recently highlighted when the Cybertruck achieved a Top Safety Pick+ rating from the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety (IIHS). This was a notable victory for the Cybertruck as critics have long claimed that the vehicle will be one of, if not the, most unsafe truck on the road due to its appearance. The vehicle’s Top Safety Pick+ rating, if any, simply proved that Tesla never neglects to make its cars as safe as possible, and that definitely includes the Cybercab.

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Tesla’s Elon Musk gives timeframe for FSD’s release in UAE

Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year. 

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk stated on Monday that Full Self-Driving (Supervised) could launch in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) as soon as January 2026. 

Provided that Musk’s timeframe proves accurate, FSD would be able to start saturating the Middle East, starting with the UAE, next year. 

Musk’s estimate

In a post on X, UAE-based political analyst Ahmed Sharif Al Amiri asked Musk when FSD would arrive in the country, quoting an earlier post where the CEO encouraged users to try out FSD for themselves. Musk responded directly to the analyst’s inquiry. 

“Hopefully, next month,” Musk wrote. The exchange attracted a lot of attention, with numerous X users sharing their excitement at the idea of FSD being brought to a new country. FSD (Supervised), after all, would likely allow hands-off highway driving, urban navigation, and parking under driver oversight in traffic-heavy cities such as Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Musk’s comments about FSD’s arrival in the UAE were posted following his visit to the Middle Eastern country. Over the weekend, images were shared online of Musk meeting with UAE Defense Minister, Deputy Prime Minister, and Dubai Crown Prince HH Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed. Musk also posted a supportive message about the country, posting “UAE rocks!” on X.

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FSD recognition

FSD has been getting quite a lot of support from foreign media outlets. FSD (Supervised) earned high marks from Germany’s largest car magazine, Auto Bild, during a test in Berlin’s challenging urban environment. The demonstration highlighted the system’s ability to handle dense traffic, construction sites, pedestrian crossings, and narrow streets with smooth, confident decision-making.

Journalist Robin Hornig was particularly struck by FSD’s superior perception and tireless attention, stating: “Tesla FSD Supervised sees more than I do. It doesn’t get distracted and never gets tired. I like to think I’m a good driver, but I can’t match this system’s all-around vision. It’s at its best when both work together: my experience and the Tesla’s constant attention.” Only one intervention was needed when the system misread a route, showcasing its maturity while relying on vision-only sensors and over-the-air learning.

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Tesla quietly flexes FSD’s reliability amid Waymo blackout in San Francisco

“Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post.

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Tesla highlighted its Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system’s robustness this week by sharing dashcam footage of a vehicle in FSD navigating pitch-black San Francisco streets during the city’s widespread power outage. 

While Waymo’s robotaxis stalled and caused traffic jams, Tesla’s vision-only approach kept operating seamlessly without remote intervention. Elon Musk amplified the clip, highlighting the contrast between the two systems.

Tesla FSD handles total darkness

The @Tesla_AI account posted a video from a Model Y operating on FSD during San Francisco’s blackout. As could be seen in the video, streetlights, traffic signals, and surrounding illumination were completely out, but the vehicle drove confidently and cautiously, just like a proficient human driver.

Musk reposted the clip, adding context to reports of Waymo vehicles struggling in the same conditions. “Tesla Robotaxis were unaffected by the SF power outage,” Musk wrote in his post. 

Musk and the Tesla AI team’s posts highlight the idea that FSD operates a lot like any experienced human driver. Since the system does not rely on a variety of sensors and a complicated symphony of factors, vehicles could technically navigate challenging circumstances as they emerge. This definitely seemed to be the case in San Francisco.  

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Waymo’s blackout struggles

Waymo faced scrutiny after multiple self-driving Jaguar I-PACE taxis stopped functioning during the blackout, blocking lanes, causing traffic jams, and requiring manual retrieval. Videos shared during the power outage showed fleets of Waymo vehicles just stopping in the middle of the road, seemingly confused about what to do when the lights go out. 

In a comment, Waymo stated that its vehicles treat nonfunctional signals as four-way stops, but “the sheer scale of the outage led to instances where vehicles remained stationary longer than usual to confirm the state of the affected intersections. This contributed to traffic friction during the height of the congestion.”

A company spokesperson also shared some thoughts about the incidents. “Yesterday’s power outage was a widespread event that caused gridlock across San Francisco, with non-functioning traffic signals and transit disruptions. While the failure of the utility infrastructure was significant, we are committed to ensuring our technology adjusts to traffic flow during such events,” the Waymo spokesperson stated, adding that it is “focused on rapidly integrating the lessons learned from this event, and are committed to earning and maintaining the trust of the communities we serve every day.”

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