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SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 launch delayed until November as lull drags on

An integrated Falcon 9 rocket rolls out to the pad ahead of launch. (SpaceX)

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For unknown reasons, SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 rocket launch has slipped from October to November, extending an already record-breaking lull in commercial US launch activity.

Depending on when SpaceX finally returns to flight, the company could have easily spent more than a quarter of 2019 between launches.

Although each satellite is just a few square meters, they may be able to serve internet to thousands of people simultaneously. (SpaceX)
A render of several Starlink satellites in orbit. SpaceX hopes to launch nearly 1500 of the spacecraft in 2020. (SpaceX)

On August 7th, SpaceX successfully completed its most recent launch – orbiting Spacecom’s AMOS-17 communications satellite – and the company’s tenth orbital launch of 2019. Aside from two spectacular back-to-back Falcon Heavy launches in April and June and SpaceX’s first dedicated Starlink launch in May, 2019 has be a relatively normal year for SpaceX’s commercial launch business.

Shifting satellite sands

A comment made in September by SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell was nevertheless spot-on – 2019 has been a bit quieter than 2017 and 2018 and a large chunk of that slowdown can be reportedly explained by the lack of customer readiness. The satellites SpaceX’s paying customers have contracted launches for simply aren’t ready for flight.

In short, after finding its stride over the last two and a half years, SpaceX’s orbital launch capacity has grown to the point that it’s nearly outpacing the world’s commercial satellite manufacturing capabilities: SpaceX can launch them faster than the established industry can build them.

Giant communications satellites like AMOS-17 are going to be around for years to come but they are undeniably a dying breed. (Boeing)

Although SpaceX’s unexpected 2019 launch lull is likely more of a perfect storm and coincidence than anything, it may still be a sign of things to come in the next decade and beyond. Annual orders for large geostationary communications satellites – representing a substantial share of the global launch market – reached their lowest levels ever in 2017 and 2018, a trend that appears likely to continue almost indefinitely.

Those often massive satellites tend to cost nine figures ($100M+), weigh at least several metric tons, and are designed with a failure-is-not-an-option attitude that has inflated their complexity and price tags to dysfunctional levels.

The Small-ening

SpaceX is undeniably aware of this trend, caused in large part by the growing commercial aversion (at least for new entrants) of putting all one’s eggs in an incredibly large and expensive satellite basket. Smaller satellites – be it in low Earth orbit, geostationary orbits, or even interplanetary space – are now largely viewed as the way forward for companies interested in commercializing spaceflight. Large spacecraft certainly still have their place and many industry stalwarts are extremely reluctant to part ways with the established standard of big communications satellites, but small is almost unequivocally the future.

An imposing stack of SpaceX’s first 60 Starlink satellites is shown here prior to their inaugural launch. (SpaceX)

SpaceX is clearly onboard and has become the only launch services company in history to pursue plans to build, launch, and operate its own satellite constellation, known as Starlink. In a beta test at an unprecedented scale, SpaceX launched its first 60 Starlink satellite prototypes in May and has since been working to finalize designs and aggressively ramp up production.

SpaceX’s current plans for Starlink involve a constellation of nearly 12,000 satellites, potentially growing to 40,000+ well down the road. SpaceX much launch approximately half of those satellites by November 2023 and all of them by November 2027, a feat that will require the company to build and launch spacecraft at a rate unprecedented in the history of commercial space.

SpaceX completed its first Starlink launch on May 23rd, flying B1049 for the third time. SpaceX's next Starlink launch will very likely mark the first time a booster has flown four orbital-class missions. (SpaceX)
SpaceX’s first Starlink v0.9 mission suffered two false-starts, followed by a successful dedicated launch debut in May 2019. (SpaceX)

Shotwell indicated at the same September 2019 conference that SpaceX’s goal was to launch as many Starlink missions as possible while attempting to avoid disrupting the schedules of its commercial launch customers. In fact, the launch expected to end SpaceX’s 2019 launch lull was and still is a Starlink mission, the first flight of 60 finalized ‘v1.0’ satellites.

For unknown reasons probably related SpaceX’s relatively recent entrance into satellite manufacturing, that ‘Starlink-1’ launch (and 1-3 more expected to occur in quick succession) has slipped from a relatively firm October 17th planning date to late-October, and now has a tentative launch target sometime in November. Pending mission success, a second launch (‘Starlink-2’) could follow as early as November or December, while SpaceX also plans to launch Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) as early as late-November, Cargo Dragon’s CRS-19 mission NET December 4th, and the Kacific-1 communications satellite in mid-December.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi safety monitor removal in Austin: here’s when

Musk has made the claim about removing Safety Monitors from Tesla Robotaxi vehicles in Austin three times this year, once in September, once in October, and once in November.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirmed on Tuesday at the xAI Hackathon that the company would be removing Safety Monitors from Robotaxis in Austin in just three weeks.

This would meet Musk’s timeline from earlier this year, as he has said on several occasions that Tesla Robotaxis would have no supervision in Austin by the end of 2025.

On Tuesday, Musk said:

“Unsupervised is pretty much solved at this point. So there will be Tesla Robotaxis operating in Austin with no one in them. Not even anyone in the passenger seat in about three weeks.”

Musk has made the claim about removing Safety Monitors from Tesla Robotaxi vehicles in Austin three times this year, once in September, once in October, and once in November.

In September, he said:

“Should be no safety driver by end of year.”

On the Q3 Earnings Call in October, he said:

“We are expecting ot have no safety drivers in at least large parts of Austin by the end of this year.”

Finally, in November, he reiterated the timeline in a public statement at the Shareholder Meeting:

“I expect Robotaxis to operate without safety drivers in large parts of Austin this year.”

Currently, Tesla uses Safety Monitors in Austin in the passenger’s seat on local roads. They will sit in the driver’s seat for highway routes. In the Bay Area ride-hailing operation, there is always a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat.

Three weeks would deliver on the end-of-year promise, cutting it close, beating it by just two days. However, it would be a tremendous leap forward in the Robotaxi program, and would shut the mouths of many skeptics who state the current iteration is no different than having an Uber.

Tesla has also expanded its Robotaxi fleet this year, but the company has not given exact figures. Once it expands its fleet, even more progress will be made in Tesla’s self-driving efforts.

Tesla expands Robotaxi geofence, but not the garage

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SpaceX reportedly mulling IPO, eyeing largest of all time: report

“I do want to try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX. I’ve been giving a lot of thought to how to give people access to SpaceX stock,” Musk said.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX is reportedly mulling an initial public offering, eyeing what would be the largest valuation at the time of availability of all time, a new report from Bloomberg said on Tuesday.

It is one of many reports involving one of Elon Musk’s companies and a massive market move, as this is not the first time we have seen reports of an IPO by SpaceX. Musk himself has also dispelled other reports in the past of a similar nature, including an xAI funding round.

SpaceX and Musk have yet to comment on the report. In the past, untrue reports were promptly replied to by the CEO; this has not yet gained any response, which is a good sign in terms of credibility.

However, he said just a few days ago that stories of this nature are inaccurate:

“There has been a lot of press claiming SpaceX is raising money at $800B, which is not accurate. SpaceX has been cash flow positive for many years and does periodic stock buybacks twice a year to provide liquidity for employees and investors. Valuation increments are a function of progress with Starship and Starlink and securing global direct-to-cell spectrum that greatly increases our addressable market. And one other thing that is arguably most significant by far.”

Musk has discussed a potential IPO for SpaceX in recent months, as the November 6 shareholder meeting, as he commented on the “downsides” of having a public company, like litigation exposure, quarterly reporting pressures, and other inconveniences.

Nevertheless, Musk has also said he wants there to be a way for Tesla shareholders to get in on the action. At the meeting in early November, he said:

“I do want to try to figure out some way for Tesla shareholders to participate in SpaceX. I’ve been giving a lot of thought to how to give people access to SpaceX stock.”

Additionally, he added:

“Maybe at some point., SpaceX should become a public company despite all the downsides of being public.”

Musk has been historically reluctant to take SpaceX public, at times stating it could become a barrier to colonizing Mars. That does not mean it will not happen.

Bloomberg’s report cites multiple unidentified sources who are familiar with the matter. They indicate to the publication that SpaceX wants to go public in mid-to-late 2026, and it wants to raise $30 billion at a valuation of around $1.5 trillion.

This is not the first time SpaceX has discussed an IPO; we reported on it nine years ago. We hope it is true, as the community has spoken for a long time about having access to SpaceX stock. Legendary investor Ron Baron is one of the lucky few to be a SpaceX investor, and said it, along with Tesla, is a “lifetime investment.”

Tesla bull Ron Baron reveals $100M SpaceX investment, sees 3-5x return on TSLA

The primary driver of SpaceX’s value is Starlink, the company’s satellite internet service. Starlink contributes 60-70 percent of SpaceX’s revenue, meaning it is the primary value engine. Launch services, like Falcon 9 contracts, and the development of Starship, also play supporting roles.

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SpaceX reaches incredible milestone with Starlink program

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX reached an incredible milestone with its Starlink program with a launch last night, as the 3,000th satellite of the year was launched into low Earth orbit.

On Monday, SpaceX also achieved its 32nd flight with a single Falcon 9 rocket from NASA’s Kennedy Space Center.

The mission was Starlink 6-92, and it utilized the Falcon 9 B1067 for the 32nd time this year, the most-used Falcon booster. The flight delivered SpaceX’s 3000th Starlink satellite of the year, a massive achievement.

There were 29 Starlink satellites launched and deployed into LEO during this particular mission:

SpaceX has a current goal of certifying its Falcon boosters for 40 missions apiece, according to Spaceflight Now.

The flight was the 350th orbital launch from the nearby SLC-40, and the 3,000 satellites that have been successfully launched this year continue to contribute to the company’s goal of having 12,000 satellites contributing to global internet coverage.

There are over five million users of Starlink, the latest data shows.

Following the launch and stage separation, the Falcon 9 booster completed its mission with a perfect landing on the ‘Just Read the Instructions’ droneship.

The mission was the 575th overall Falcon 9 launch, highlighting SpaceX’s operational tempo, which continues to be accelerated. The company averages two missions per week, and underscores CEO Elon Musk’s vision of a multi-planetary future, where reliable connectivity is crucial for remote work, education, and emergency response.

As Starlink expands and works toward that elusive and crucial 12,000 satellite goal, missions like 6-92 pave the way for innovations in telecommunications and enable more internet access to people across the globe.

With regulatory approvals in over 100 countries and millions of current subscribers, SpaceX continues to democratize space, proving that reusability is not just feasible, but it’s also revolutionary.

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