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SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 launch delayed until November as lull drags on

An integrated Falcon 9 rocket rolls out to the pad ahead of launch. (SpaceX)

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For unknown reasons, SpaceX’s next Falcon 9 rocket launch has slipped from October to November, extending an already record-breaking lull in commercial US launch activity.

Depending on when SpaceX finally returns to flight, the company could have easily spent more than a quarter of 2019 between launches.

Although each satellite is just a few square meters, they may be able to serve internet to thousands of people simultaneously. (SpaceX)
A render of several Starlink satellites in orbit. SpaceX hopes to launch nearly 1500 of the spacecraft in 2020. (SpaceX)

On August 7th, SpaceX successfully completed its most recent launch – orbiting Spacecom’s AMOS-17 communications satellite – and the company’s tenth orbital launch of 2019. Aside from two spectacular back-to-back Falcon Heavy launches in April and June and SpaceX’s first dedicated Starlink launch in May, 2019 has be a relatively normal year for SpaceX’s commercial launch business.

Shifting satellite sands

A comment made in September by SpaceX COO and President Gwynne Shotwell was nevertheless spot-on – 2019 has been a bit quieter than 2017 and 2018 and a large chunk of that slowdown can be reportedly explained by the lack of customer readiness. The satellites SpaceX’s paying customers have contracted launches for simply aren’t ready for flight.

In short, after finding its stride over the last two and a half years, SpaceX’s orbital launch capacity has grown to the point that it’s nearly outpacing the world’s commercial satellite manufacturing capabilities: SpaceX can launch them faster than the established industry can build them.

Giant communications satellites like AMOS-17 are going to be around for years to come but they are undeniably a dying breed. (Boeing)

Although SpaceX’s unexpected 2019 launch lull is likely more of a perfect storm and coincidence than anything, it may still be a sign of things to come in the next decade and beyond. Annual orders for large geostationary communications satellites – representing a substantial share of the global launch market – reached their lowest levels ever in 2017 and 2018, a trend that appears likely to continue almost indefinitely.

Those often massive satellites tend to cost nine figures ($100M+), weigh at least several metric tons, and are designed with a failure-is-not-an-option attitude that has inflated their complexity and price tags to dysfunctional levels.

The Small-ening

SpaceX is undeniably aware of this trend, caused in large part by the growing commercial aversion (at least for new entrants) of putting all one’s eggs in an incredibly large and expensive satellite basket. Smaller satellites – be it in low Earth orbit, geostationary orbits, or even interplanetary space – are now largely viewed as the way forward for companies interested in commercializing spaceflight. Large spacecraft certainly still have their place and many industry stalwarts are extremely reluctant to part ways with the established standard of big communications satellites, but small is almost unequivocally the future.

An imposing stack of SpaceX’s first 60 Starlink satellites is shown here prior to their inaugural launch. (SpaceX)

SpaceX is clearly onboard and has become the only launch services company in history to pursue plans to build, launch, and operate its own satellite constellation, known as Starlink. In a beta test at an unprecedented scale, SpaceX launched its first 60 Starlink satellite prototypes in May and has since been working to finalize designs and aggressively ramp up production.

SpaceX’s current plans for Starlink involve a constellation of nearly 12,000 satellites, potentially growing to 40,000+ well down the road. SpaceX much launch approximately half of those satellites by November 2023 and all of them by November 2027, a feat that will require the company to build and launch spacecraft at a rate unprecedented in the history of commercial space.

SpaceX completed its first Starlink launch on May 23rd, flying B1049 for the third time. SpaceX's next Starlink launch will very likely mark the first time a booster has flown four orbital-class missions. (SpaceX)
SpaceX’s first Starlink v0.9 mission suffered two false-starts, followed by a successful dedicated launch debut in May 2019. (SpaceX)

Shotwell indicated at the same September 2019 conference that SpaceX’s goal was to launch as many Starlink missions as possible while attempting to avoid disrupting the schedules of its commercial launch customers. In fact, the launch expected to end SpaceX’s 2019 launch lull was and still is a Starlink mission, the first flight of 60 finalized ‘v1.0’ satellites.

For unknown reasons probably related SpaceX’s relatively recent entrance into satellite manufacturing, that ‘Starlink-1’ launch (and 1-3 more expected to occur in quick succession) has slipped from a relatively firm October 17th planning date to late-October, and now has a tentative launch target sometime in November. Pending mission success, a second launch (‘Starlink-2’) could follow as early as November or December, while SpaceX also plans to launch Crew Dragon’s In-Flight Abort (IFA) as early as late-November, Cargo Dragon’s CRS-19 mission NET December 4th, and the Kacific-1 communications satellite in mid-December.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla analyst compares Robotaxi to Waymo: ‘The contrast was clear’

“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Jed Dorsheimer of Wall Street firm William Blair compared the company’s Robotaxi platform to Waymo’s driverless ride-sharing program, and had a clear-cut consensus over which option was better in terms of rider experience.

Dorsheimer visited Austin recently to ride in both Tesla’s Robotaxi ride-sharing program and Waymo, which has operated slightly longer than Tesla has in the city. Tesla started rides on June 22, while Waymo opened its vehicles to the public in March.

A Tesla Model Y L Robotaxi is a legitimate $47k Waymo killer

The analyst gave both platforms the opportunity to present themselves, and by the end of it, one was better than the other in terms of rider experience. However, he noted that both platforms gave safe and smooth rides.

Overall, there was a tremendous difference in the feel and environment of each option.

Tesla Robotaxi vs. Waymo

Dorsheimer said that Tesla’s first big advantage was vehicle appearance. Robotaxi uses no external equipment or hardware to operate; just its exterior cameras. Meanwhile, Zoox and Waymo vehicles utilize LiDAR rigs on their vehicles, which made them “stick out like a sore thumb.”

“In contrast, the robotaxis blended in with other Teslas on the road; we felt inconspicuous flowing with the traffic,” he added.

The next big victory went in the way of Robotaxi once again, and it concerned perhaps the most important metric in the ridesharing experience: price.

He continued in the note:

“Confirming our thesis, robotaxi was half the price of Uber, showing its ability to win market share by weaponizing price.”

In terms of overall performance, Dorsheimer noted that both platforms provided safe and “top-notch” experiences. However, there was one distinction between the two and it provided a clear consensus on which was better.

He said:

“In Austin, we took multiple robotaxi and Waymo rides; the contrast was clear. Aside from the visual difference between each pulling up to the curb, the robotaxi was comfortable and familiar, and it felt as though a friendly ghost chauffeur was driving our personal car. Driving was smooth and human-like, recognizing and patiently waiting for pedestrians, switching into less crowded lanes, patiently waiting to execute a safe unprotected turn, and yet, discerning and confident enough to drive through a light that just turned yellow, so as not to slam on the brakes.

Waymo also provided a top-notch service, and we did not encounter any safety concerns, but if we were to be overly critical, it felt more … robotic. In the cabin, you have to listen to an airline-esque preamble on Waymo and safety protocols, and during the ride, you can hear all the various spinning lidar sensors spooling up and down with electronic whizzing sounds.”

Tesla Robotaxi provides an experience that seems to be more catered toward a realistic ride experience. You can control the music, the cabin temperature, and transitioning your travel from one vehicle to the next during a trip will continue your entertainment experience.

If your first trip ends in the middle of a song, your next trip will pick up the music where it left off.

Meanwhile, Waymo’s experience sounds as if it is more focused on rider expectations, and not necessarily providing a ride that felt catered to the occupants. Still, what’s important is that both platforms provided safe rides.

Dorsheimer ended the note with one last tidbit:

“In short, robotaxi felt like a more luxurious service for half the cost and the driving felt more human-like.”

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Tesla offers new deal on used inventory that you won’t want to pass up

Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is offering a new deal on its used vehicle inventory that consumers looking for a great deal won’t want to pass up.

Traditionally, Tesla has not allowed potential car buyers to lease its used inventory. The only two options were to buy with cash or finance it through Tesla or a bank.

However, with the elimination of the $7,500 new and $4,000 used EV tax credits, Tesla is breaking its own rules and is now offering lease deals on its used vehicle inventory, but only in a couple of states, as of right now.

Tesla is ready with a perfect counter to the end of US EV tax credits

Tesla opened up lease deals on used Model 3 and Model Y inventory in California and Texas on Tuesday, marking the first time it has launched the option on pre-owned cars.

The deals are tremendous and can cost as little as $0 down and under $225 per month for some vehicles.

Tesla also allows customers to buy the vehicle at the end of their lease deal, which enables some really great ways to end up an owner of the car you plan to drive for the next two or three years.

The lease deal also helps Tesla rid itself of older vehicles that might not be of future use to the company. It formerly planned to use leased vehicles in its eventual Robotaxi fleet, but many of the cars in its used inventory have Hardware 3, which is less capable than Hardware 4, which is installed in the new Model 3 and Model Y.

More importantly, Tesla is giving people yet another way to be in the market for a Tesla before the tax credit ends on September 30.

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Tesla Model Y L might not come to the U.S., and it’s a missed opportunity

The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

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Credit: Tesla China

Tesla’s new Model Y L might not come to the U.S., CEO Elon Musk said this morning.

It’s a missed opportunity, and I’m not the only one who feels this way.

In the past, I have personally written a handful of articles about what Tesla owners have been wanting in the United States: a full-sized SUV, or at least a vehicle that is larger than the Model Y but less of a crossover than the Model X.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

The only thing that Tesla has announced that even slightly matches this sort of idea is the Robovan, which is, optimistically, several years off because it lacks a steering wheel and pedals and will require Full Self-Driving to be fully autonomous.

Even if Tesla launches FSD next year, it will take a year or two to figure out manufacturing, go through regulatory hurdles with the EPA, and eventually enter mass production for customers.

The Model Y L has a variety of big changes that would be advantageous for the U.S. market, including a longer wheelbase, more comfortable seats, a third row that appears to be more spacious than Tesla’s six-seat Model Y that it previously offered, B-Pillar vents for rear passengers, and more.

However, Musk said it won’t come to the U.S. until next year, and that it “might not ever, given the advent of self-driving in America.”

To be blunt, I’m not sure if I truly believe that Musk thinks the Model Y L won’t come to the U.S. Some believe he said this to not Osborne Effect Model Y sales here, which seems more likely than anything.

Tesla Model Y L gets disappointingly far production date in the United States

People have been buying the Model Y for two years more than any other car in the world. To act as if many families would not appreciate the extra space seems very strange; a big complaint with the Model Y is that it simply does not fit larger families.

If you have four kids, you’re forced into the Model X, which might be too expensive for some families, as it starts at $79,990.

While Tesla’s focus is undoubtedly on autonomy, it is important to remember that some people still really enjoy the act of driving their cars. Tesla has worked very hard to create a fun and sporty driving experience, especially in the new Model Y. Many consumers, including myself, like to take advantage of that.

Autonomy might eventually take over human driving completely, but in the near term, it does not seem as if that is the case. Even if someone were interested in never driving again, this longer and more spacious Model Y L would be an ideal option for American families that need the room for at least six passengers.

Quite a few big names in the Tesla community share this sentiment:

More than likely, Musk does not want to announce a more attractive option than the current Model Y, as many consumers would likely wait a year or two for the L in an effort to have more space.

In all honesty, I see the Model Y L coming to the United States, as it truly fits the bill as an ideal car for the modern American family.

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