News
SpaceX’s ninth Starlink launch gets a boost from first all-women weather crew
SpaceX’s second Starlink launch of the month is currently tracking towards a June 13th liftoff from Cape Canaveral, Florida.
In order for a rocket launch to get off the ground, however, a perfect mix of ingredients must come together. One of the most crucial ingredients is the weather. Behind the scenes, the U.S. Space Force’s 45th Weather Squadron of the 45th Space Wing Operations Group – based out of Patrick Air Force Base – works diligently to monitor and predict weather conditions leading up to and at the time of liftoff. Every rocket launch that lifts off from Kennedy Space Center or Cape Canaveral Air Force Station utilizes the weather monitoring services provided by the 45th Weather Squadron and SpaceX – the most prolific US launch company is – no different.
For SpaceX’s upcoming Starlink V1 L8 Rideshare Program mission, the entire weather team on console is female, a first in program history. The team is made up of six women all responsible for specific roles that must coordinate and work cohesively to monitor the weather and determine when it is safe to launch the Falcon 9.
The diverse team is comprised of military personnel and civilian weather officers. It is overseen by Maj Emily Graves, Launch Weather Commander, and orchestrated by Capt. Nancy Zimmerman, Launch Weather Director. A Lead Launch Weather Officer, Arlena Moses, coordinates information between the launch customer, SpaceX, and the 45th while three other members constantly monitor and decipher mountains of weather data.
Airman 1st class Hannah Mulcahey serves as Duty Forecaster and Jessica Williams serves as Radar Launch Weather Officer. Williams is responsible for monitoring information produced by a series of systems every three minutes. She monitors radar data for the amount of precipitation, clouds that are present in the area, and the thickness of the clouds among other things. This information is used to determine whether or not the rocket’s flight path is safe for the duration of the mission. Thick clouds can be an indicator of an unstable atmosphere capable of producing electricity – either naturally as cloud produced lightning or lightning produced by a rocket thrusting through the unstable atmosphere called triggered lightning.
Should radar information be too ambiguous or overexaggerated, the Reconnaissance Launch Weather Officer, Melody Lovin, coordinates the mission with a reconnaissance aircraft known as Weather One. For SpaceX’s upcoming launch, Weather One will only be activated if there is going to be bad weather present for launch, a small possibility if the launch date slips. Other launch customers such as NASA or United Launch Alliance will sometimes have Weather One in the air on standby throughout the duration of the countdown to launch dependent on mission constraints.
When Launch Weather Director, Capt Nancy Zimmerman, was asked during a media teleconference about how this historical assignment came about, she stated that it was pure coincidence. “It was happenstance. The flight commander of space lift, my supervisor, actually created a team, as he always does, and was like ‘Huh, this is actually an all-female team. Have we ever done this?’ And looking back through the database, you know, it hasn’t been done and he was like ‘Well, should we do this?’ and I said ‘Yes, let’s do it.’” Zimmerman said .
A primary factor enabling an all-female led launch weather team is simply that the workforce of the 45th Weather Squadron is now comprised of more females than ever before. According to Lovin, “We simply have more women on the team. Before we only had one and that was from the year 2000 to 2018 and 2018 came around and a lot of resident launch weather officers left and they also decided to expand the unit.” She went on to state that the massive uptick in launches from the Cape Canaveral Air Force Station and Kennedy Space Center was a driving factor of the weather unit expansion, “when they expanded the unit they hired three more women, so that means we have six women on the team.”
The personnel of the 45th Weather Squadron work day in and day out to monitor and forecast weather conditions ensuring safe air and space operation all year round. When it comes to rocket launches, watching the weather begins early and is done frequently. Weather patterns in central Florida can change rapidly causing a rocket launch attempt to be scrubbed completely, which is what occurred with SpaceX’s first attempt to launch NASA astronauts Bob Behnken and Doug Hurley to the International Space Station.
Understanding and tracking developing weather patterns of central Florida allows the 45th Weather Squadron to create launch mission execution forecasts that outline a possibility of violation (POV) of specific launch weather constraints ahead of a launch attempt and any planned backup attempts. These comprehensive forecasts cover everything from systems like frontal boundaries that influence area weather to the type of clouds expected at the time of launch. The forecasts are put together based on a series of ten Lightning Launch Commit Criteria rules and a series of user-defined constraint rules that are specific to each mission and launch vehicle such as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 or United Launch Alliance’s Atlas V for example.
The ten lightning launch commit criteria rules have been in place since the 1980s when an Atlas-Centaur rocket was ultimately lost due to triggered lightning. The rocket launched into a highly unstable and electrified atmosphere full of thick clouds creating the conditions necessary to trigger a lightning strike of the vehicle. It lost its navigation system and began to dangerously veer from its course. It was then destroyed in-flight by launch teams.
Given the high degree of uncertainty of Florida weather, a well-versed team of highly trained weather professionals is a necessary piece of the puzzle that is rocket launching. For the first time, that team is made up of incredibly inspiring females that undoubtedly will make the correct GO/NO GO call on launch day.
For SpaceX’s first Starlink SmallSat Rideshare Program mission, targeted to launch no earlier than (NET) Saturday, June 13 at 5:21 a.m. EDT (09:21 UTC), the 45th Weather Squadron team predicts a 30% chance of violation – meaning that weather is 70% GO for launch. The primary concern is a bank of cumulus clouds expected to be in the area. You can view the full launch mission execution forecast on the 45th Weather Squadron’s website.
Check out Teslarati’s newsletters for prompt updates, on-the-ground perspectives, and unique glimpses of SpaceX’s rocket launch and recovery processes.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Investor's Corner
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has reported its Q4 2025 production and deliveries, with 418,227 vehicles delivered and 434,358 produced worldwide. Energy storage deployments hit a quarterly record at 14.2 GWh.
Tesla’s Q4 and FY 2025 results were posted on Friday, January 2, 2026.
Q4 2025 production and deliveries
In Q4 2025, Tesla produced 422,652 Model 3/Y units and 11,706 other models, which are comprised of the Model S, Model X, and the Cybertruck, for a total of 434,358 vehicles. Deliveries stood at 406,585 Model 3/Y and 11,642 other models, for a total of 418,227 vehicles.
Energy deployments reached 14.2 GWh, a new record. Similar to other reports, Tesla posted a company thanked customers, employees, suppliers, shareholders, and supporters for its fourth quarter results.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus estimate that Tesla would deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems in Q4 2025.
Tesla’s Full Year 2025 results
For the full year, Tesla produced a total of 1,654,667 vehicles, comprised of 1,600,767 Model Y/3 and 53,900 other models. Tesla also delivered 1,636,129 vehicles in FY 2025, comprised of 1,585,279 Model Y/3 and 50,850 other models. Energy deployments totaled 46.7 GWh over the year.
In comparison, analysts included in Tesla’s company-compiled consensus expected the company to deliver a total of 1,640,752 vehicles for full year 2025. Analysts also expected Tesla’s energy division to deploy a total of 45.9 GWh during the year.
Tesla will post its financial results for the fourth quarter of 2025 after market close on Wednesday, January 28, 2026. The company’s Q4 and FY 2025 earnings call is expected to be held on the same day at 4:30 p.m. Central Time.
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
