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SpaceX’s first orbital Starship prototype prepares for proof tests
Several days after SpaceX’s first orbital-class Starship prototype took a second trip to a nearby launch site, the rocket is on its way to one of two suborbital launch mounts.
Once installed on the steel structure, Starship prototype 20 (S20) will finally be ready for – at minimum – two crucial tests: a cryogenic proof and static fire. According to highway closures filed by SpaceX late last week, the first of those tests could apparently begin as early as Thursday, August 19th, potentially setting Starship S20 up to attempt at least one major milestone next week.
On August 13th, SpaceX rolled Starship S20 back to the launch site a week after the rocket was sent to the pad to be briefly stacked on top of a Super Heavy booster – an event that appears to have been something like 50% photo opportunity, 50% test objective. Neither the booster or ship were fully complete at the time and both ultimately required at least another week or two of outfitting and plumbing to be ready for ground testing – let alone flight. Aspirationally, the same pair – Ship 20 and Booster 4 – could be the first to attempt a true orbital Starship launch sometime later this year.
Since its second rollout, Ship 20 has more or less stayed in one place as workers continuously swarmed about the rocket on boom and scissor lifts. Over the last four days, not much has visually changed save for the installation of a handful of heat shield tiles, but the focus clearly centered around the Starship’s ‘raceway’ – a clutch of plumbing and wiring that runs most of the length of the vehicle’s back. Virtually all rockets have them and Starship is no different with a raceway packed with avionics wire runs, plumbing for propellant loading, and smaller lines for pressurization and hydraulics.
While it’s not entirely clear what specific work has been done over the last few days or why it wasn’t done back at the build site, where CEO Elon Musk himself has said such tasks are more easily done, it’s clear that Starship S20 does have a more refined raceway than any ship before it. In recent days, SpaceX has also begun to install structural elements that strongly imply that S20 will be the first Starship to receive a raceway aerocover – not unlike those on Falcon boosters – to protect its external wiring and plumbing in flight.
Regardless, once Starship S20 is installed on one of SpaceX’s two suborbital launch mounts, the vehicle will most likely be prepared for a routine cryogenic proof test. To pass, Starship will need to survive significant thermal and mechanical stress as its tanks are filled with supercool liquid nitrogen and pressurized to at least 6 bar (~90 psi). At this point, a Starship prototype hasn’t failed a cryo proof in more than a year, so the test should be fairly routine.
Curiously, after spending weeks modifying Mount B with a series of hydraulic rams meant to simulate the thrust of Ship 20’s six Raptor engines during its cryo proof(s), SpaceX removed all of that extra hardware just prior to the Starship’s second rollout and now-imminent installation on said mount. Regardless of why, that decision likely means that Starship S20 will move directly to static fire testing once it passes cryo proofing. Given that Ship 20 appears to be on track to be the first Starship prototype of any kind to fire more than three Raptors at a time, that static fire campaign will likely be somewhat cautious, possibly beginning with just 1-3 engines and then moving to four, five, or straight to six.
SpaceX could also throw caution to the wind (not implausible as evidenced by the removal of Pad B’s unused thrust rams) and install and attempt to fire all six Raptors immediately after Ship 20 completes a cryo proof. Based on road closures filed by SpaceX, that testing could begin as early as 5pm to 11pm CDT on Thursday, August 19th. A backup window is also scheduled from 6am to 12pm CDT on August 20th.
Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) showed a record attach rate at delivery for new vehicles in the third quarter of 2026.
75 percent of new vehicle deliveries in North America included a subscription to FSD software, up from 55 percent in the prior quarter, a 20-percentage-point sequential gain in the company’s most mature market.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla shed light on the Q3 Shareholder Deck that 75 percent of new deliveries came with an FSD subscription:
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets. “
The higher attach rate accompanied strong growth in the overall FSD consumer base, as active subscriptions rose to 1.75 million, a 67 percent year-over-year increase. For the first time, more than half of paid customers are on the monthly subscription, which is priced at $99 per month in the U.S.
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2026
The transition to subscriptions has accelerated since Tesla discontinued the one-time purchase option in most markets earlier this year. The recurring model improves revenue visibility and margins compared with large upfront payments. With three-quarters of North American deliveries now including FSD, the software is now an evidently large contributor to Tesla’s economics and ancillary revenue.
Geographic expansion remains important for further gains. FSD is now available in nine countries in the EU, and more than 100,000 customers have driven over 160 million kilometers. Tesla is pursuing broader EU-wide approval, with a related vote expected in December. Similar progress in additional markets could support higher attach rates beyond North America.
These results came as Tesla had a strong quarterly delivery performance of 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, which came with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years. Battery supply continued to limit volume, but the company has pointed to FSD as a clear difference-maker that is helping sustain demand. As supervised capabilities improve, the attach rate will likely continue to improve.
At face value, it is a key measure of how Tesla is converting sales into autonomy progress.
Update: 10/22 10:51a – Para 1 consumers changed to “customers” for accuracy.
Tesla Cybercab units finally got a definitive date for when they will be able to be purchased by customers, ending speculation regarding whether the fully autonomous vehicle would be available in the near term.
During Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 21, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy said the company is aiming to begin delivering its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxi to customers before year-end.
🚨 In short, Cybercabs are slated to go to customers by end of the year. All units are going into Robotaxi fleet currently, per @larsmoravy
Cybercab will be “transport-as-a-service,” but vast majority of Cybercab will be “Tesla-owned,” @elonmusk says https://t.co/R8Qu8QWdmp
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
“We’re trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026,” Moravy said. He added that production is underway on the line at Gigafactory Texas, but “all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”
Moravy explained that as operations scale, Tesla will “mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers,” with the Cybercab as the first such vehicle. Initial customer deliveries will start small while the company gains experience with delivery logistics, ownership models, fleet management, and operating autonomous vehicles outside its direct control.
CEO Elon Musk reinforced the limited nature of private sales, describing the Cybercab primarily as a “transport-as-a-service” offering rather than a personal ownership vehicle like the Model 3, Model Y, or upcoming Roadster. “The vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be Tesla-owned and transport-as-a-service,” Musk said.
The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle developed by Tesla without a steering wheel or pedals. It relies completely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite and has been in production since February. Early units have been put in Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of early September, when the company launched rides to the public. Tesla previously indicated it would aim to sell Cybercabs for about $30,000.
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is expected to ship to consumer cars during Q2 2027, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, indicated during the call. Early buyers or fleet operators may receive vehicles whose autonomous operation remains geographically restricted due to lagging regulatory agencies. There are some hurdles that remain ahead of Cybercab deliveries.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla buyers are buying for Full Self-Driving and not for the car, data shows
Tesla Cybercab gets a for sale date at last
