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SpaceX’s first orbital-class Starship stretches ‘wings’ ahead of Raptor installation
SpaceX’s first orbital-class Starship prototype was spotted stretching its ‘wings’ on Sunday after completing a successful cryogenic proof test late last week.
While minor relative to almost any other testing milestone, the small step still serves as a reminder that the end goal of Ship 20’s test campaign is a launch on Super Heavy to orbital altitudes and velocities. If that launch goes more or less according to plan, Starship will then attempt to survive an orbital-class reentry for the first time, subjecting it to extreme heat and putting its many thousands of heat shield tiles through their most daunting challenge yet. Dozens of things could (and probably will) go wrong, while almost every system aboard must work perfectly to ensure that Starship makes it through reentry in one piece.
And even if all of that occurs as planned with no major issues, those same systems will still need to hold on for several more minutes to perform a freefall, engine reignition, flip, and landing maneuver that only two other Starship prototypes have completed. As it so happens, one of those crucial systems is Starship’s flaps.
Outfitted with actuators powered by Tesla Model 3/Y motors and a pair of Model S batteries, Starship’s four large ‘flaps’ are only capable of simple flapping motions. While they may look the part, Starship flaps aren’t wings and are specifically designed not to produce lift. Instead, in support of Starship’s unusual descent profile, they act more like the hands and legs of a skydiver (particularly one in a wingsuit), allowing ships to control their pitch, attitude, and roll while freefalling belly-down to the ground. In theory, that allows Starship to gain practically all of the benefit of a structural wing like that on the Space Shuttle but for a far lower mass penalty.
Instead of elegantly slowing down with wings, Starship uses its flaps to create as much drag as possible during descent, slowing down to a terminal velocity around 100 m/s (~225 mph) or less. Using a freefall trajectory and flaps incapable of generating lift does likely come at the cost of “crossrange performance,” referring to how far Starship can travel horizontally in Earth’s atmosphere after reentry. However, significant crossrange performance is almost entirely irrelevant outside of Cold War paranoia like the kind that NASA let influence the Shuttle’s design to an ultimately catastrophic degree. Landing vertically also precludes the need for exceptionally long, expensive runways like those the Shuttle needed.
Aside from allowing it to navigate to a small vertical landing pad (or massive ‘Mechazilla’ catch tower), Starship’s flaps are also important for controlling vehicle orientation and heading during reentry itself. To fill that role, those flaps will have to be able to actuate across their full range of motion during reentry, as Starship’s hypersonic assault against the thin upper atmosphere creates a flood of superheated plasma that wants nothing more to find the gaps in its heat shield. Shuttle engineers had to deal with the same issue, ultimately designing complex seals that would allow the vehicle’s wing and body flaps to actuate during reentry without allowing superheated plasma to leak inside and damage their fragile mechanisms or structure.
Although Starship does have the benefit of relying on steel – not aluminum – for almost all of its structures, it still has to grapple with the same challenges of shielding sensitive electronics, actuators, motors, and more from the reentry onslaught that its heat shield and steel structure are designed to survive.
Half-covered in heat shield tiles, it’s not clear how SpaceX plans to seal off the more sensitive, exposed components of each flap’s actuation mechanism – including motors, cabling, and the hinge itself. Based on what’s visible, Starship’s flaps and the cradle-like ‘aerosurfaces’ they slot into do have very tight tolerances and may rely on some felt-like ceramic wool or TPS blanket to seal the tiny remaining gaps. With small enough gaps, a hypersonic airstream can behave as if there are no gaps at all, suggesting that that might be SpaceX’s preferred approach to sealing Starship flaps.
Up next on Starship S20’s path to launch is the reinstallation of 3-6 Raptor engines (for the third time) ahead of a crucial static fire test campaign that could begin as early as Thursday, October 7th. Likely beginning with 1-3 Raptors, SpaceX will perform an unknown number of static fire tests, ultimately culminating in the first ignition of 4, 5, and 6 engines on any Starship prototype. If all goes well, that testing will also mark the first time Raptor Vacuum has been ignited on a Starship prototype and the first time SpaceX has ignited multiple Raptor variants (sea level and vacuum, in this case) on the same vehicle. Stay tuned for updates on engine installation.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reports its earnings for Q3 today. Here’s what to expect, as the company will reveal its balance sheet after the market closes on Wednesday.
Tesla already reported deliveries just after Q3 ended, and it demolished Wall Street consensus estimates of roughly 462,000 vehicles. Tesla delivered 486,532 cars in the third quarter, which was a big beat, but was down 2.1 percent from the same quarter last year. Energy storage deployments were 13.7 GWh, up year-over-year.
Tesla showrooms picked clean ahead of Q3 end as demand looks strong
For the quarter, analysts have already compiled their predictions for what Tesla will report this afternoon:
- Total Revenues: $28.34B
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.43
- Operating Margin: 2.5%
- Operating Income: $721M
- Free Cash Flow: ~-$4.51B
Here are a few things we are looking forward to hearing about on the call:
Automotive Gross Margin and Overall Profitability
This was 16.3 percent in Q2, down from 19.2 percent in Q1, and was impacted by warranty charges and some fading regulatory credits. Consensus implies overall gross margin near 18 percent, but a miss here would potentially reinforce concerns about pricing pressure on its vehicles.
Pay attention to energy storage margins as well, especially since Tesla missed GWh expectations, although it was still a strong quarter.
Robotaxi/Cybercab, Unsupervised FSD, and Optimus Progress
The Say questions from retail investors usually focus on these types of projects, and this quarter is no different. Scaling the Cybercab fleet beyond Austin amid the open NHTSA safety review, timeline for Unsupervised FSD in customer cars, Robotaxi unit economics, and Optimus cost per unit plus when it could start generating revenue, are all things to be looking for.
Any concrete timelines or regulatory path details will likely move the stock more than the near-term numbers. SpaceX merger speculation, which was detailed during SpaceX’s earnings call last night, may also surface, although the key details were shared last night.
Elon Musk just confirmed the Tesla and SpaceX merger step everyone was waiting for
Say Investor Questions
- How does the Cybercab fleet scale past Austin, and what’s the regulatory path outside Texas given NHTSA’s open safety review?
- When can we anticipate FSD unsupervised in customer cars?
- When will the CyberCab be available for customer purchase/ownership?
- What’s the unit economics per paid robotaxi mile, and how does it compare to the thirty-cent target?
- Tesla has acknowledged that HW3 vehicles cannot support unsupervised FSD. When will owners know whether they can upgrade their hardware for free, and when will Tesla provide a clear plan?
The full Earnings Call will be streamed this evening after market close around 5 p.m. this evening.
SpaceX confirmed the date of Starship’s 15th launch window with some massive ambitions for the mission, as it will attempt to catch Ship for the first time.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed during SpaceX’s Earnings Call last night on October 20 that it would launch Starship for its 15th test flight in November, and there are some incredible things the company wants to try, making it perhaps the most groundbreaking launch in the program’s history.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
The most major development of the call was SpaceX’s intention to catch Ship alongside catching the Super Heavy Booster, something that has happened in the past. SpaceX showed an animation of the Ship catch, which will be done on the launch tower’s chopsticks:
SpaceX has released a new Starship tower catch animation for the upcoming Flight 15! https://t.co/kStn01Da8u
— Truthful🛰️ (@Truthful_ast) October 20, 2026
This monumental goal is to catch both the Ship and Booster in a dual-catch scenario, an incredible feat since SpaceX has never been able to reuse a Ship after launch. Musk said it would be “the first time that an orbital launch vehicle has been fully recovered,” and said it would be a “profound technology milestone.”
Musk said the odds of success on this first Ship catch attempt are “more likely than not,” but SpaceX is ultimately prepared for more tries moving forward. The SpaceX frontman said that, starting next year, Starship would have a “steady stream” of flights through the end of the year.
The cadence will accelerate in 2027, with Musk stating the company plans to target weekly flights in the first half of 2027 and twice-weekly by year-end.
The Flight 15 attempt follows that of Flight 14, which took off in late September and was Starship’s first orbital mission. It deployed 26 Starlink V3 satellites, accomplished a controlled ocean splashdown of both stages, and shed more light on potential challenges for the program moving forward.
As of now, the Starship program is firing on all cylinders.
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Wall Street analysts rapidly raised price targets on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) after the company reported a bullish third quarter for 2026 following the market close on October 20. Shares were sent sharply higher in after-hours and premarket trading.
SpaceX posted revenue of $14.6 billion, a 161 percent year-over-year increase that comfortably topped consensus estimates, which fell near $12.7 billion. The company also posted a net profit of $4.4 billion from a prior-year loss, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $8.8 billion.
More price target movement:
🚀 Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
🚀 Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
🚀 Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
🚀 UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy)
🚀TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
🚀Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
🚀Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Its Super Intelligence (AI) division generated roughly $7.6 billion and became the largest revenue contributor, growing nearly 830 percent year-over-year, while the Connectivity segment delivered $5.2 billion on strong subscriber additions that lifted the consumer base to 13.6 million for Starlink.
The Earnings Call proved especially catalytic, as CEO Elon Musk and CFO Bret Johnsen outlined Q1 2027 revenue guidance of $33 billion to $37 billion, which was far above the roughly $22 billion analysts had modeled, alongside fourth-quarter capital-expenditure plans of $35 billion to $40 billion focused on AI compute infrastructure at sites including Memphis and Southaven.
SpaceX delivers blockbuster Q3 results as Super Intelligence segment booms
Management targets 2.5 to 3 gigawatts of nameplate compute capacity by year-end and discussed pathways to 13 gigawatts or more by the end of 2027. Musk described relentless demand from hyperscalers and other customers, with compute pricing supporting payback periods of less than a year and potentially as short as six months.
Additional highlights included Starship’s recent orbital success and V3 satellite deployment, Starlink pricing and enterprise momentum, rapid Grok Bot adoption, spectrum expansion plans, and the formation of special committees to explore a possible combination with Tesla.
These elements prompted a wave of price-target increases:
- JPMorgan more than doubled its target to $500 from $240 while maintaining an Overweight rating.
- Cantor Fitzgerald lifted its target to $345 from $246 (Overweight).
- Barclays raised its target to $300 from $254 (Overweight).
- Citi increased its target to $240 from $200 (Buy),
- UBS moved to $230 from $210 (Buy), and
- TD Cowen raised its target to $224 from $200 (Buy).
- Morgan Stanley held an Overweight rating with a $300 target.
- Other firms also adjusted higher, including Wells Fargo (to $274 from $214) and Clear Street (to $248 from $217). Analysts broadly cited the strong quarterly print, accelerating AI compute expansion, Starlink progress, and Starship milestones as drivers of higher long-term growth and earnings power.
Shares, which closed at $147.79 on October 20, jumped roughly 8 percent in early premarket trading on October 21 as investors digested the results and the newly elevated Street targets.
The average analyst price target has moved higher, which reflects greater conviction in SpaceX’s trajectory across launch, connectivity, and the Super Intelligence business, even as elevated spending remains a point of focus.
Tesla reports Q3 Earnings today: here’s what to expect
SpaceX confirms Starship 15 launch window with massive ambitions
