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SpaceX may perfect reusable rockets in 2018: Evolution in the Falcons’ Nest

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2017 has in almost every respect been an unrivaled halcyon year for SpaceX: over the course of its twelves months, SpaceX has returned to flight, begun reusing Falcon 9 boosters, and overall completed 18/18 successful launches and 15/15 first stage recoveries – five of which were commercial reuses of ‘flight-proven’ boosters. It is difficult to fathom how the year could have been more successful, aside from a slight hiccup with fairing manufacturing that may have prevented the launch company from racking up 20 or more missions in 2017.

And yet, despite the flooring and incontrovertible triumphs, I can state with confidence that, barring any serious anomalies, SpaceX’s 2018 docket will utterly eclipse 2017’s varied achievements. This series of articles will act as a sort of preview of SpaceX’s imminent future in 2018, each looking at what the new year may hold for the company’s three most fundamental pursuits: the Falcon rocket family, the Starlink satellite internet initiative, and its ambitions of interplanetary colonization.

Sooty Falcon 9 1035 before its second flight with an also-reused Dragon payload, CRS-13. (Tom Cross/Teslarati)

Falcon finds its wings

While 2015 and 2016 both saw their own hints of potential successes to come, 2017 is the first year that SpaceX managed a truly impressive launch cadence for Falcon 9 without a serious vehicle failure. Every 2017 launch flew on either a Block 3 or Block 4 iteration of Falcon 9 1.2. Esoteric model numbers aside, this simply means that Falcon 9’s design, manufacture, and operation are all maturing rapidly; SpaceX has clearly learned from the CRS-7 and Amos-6 failures and responded accordingly with a more cautious and tempered perspective.

From a historical perspective, it is extraordinarily impressive that Falcon 9 and Cargo Dragon have experienced such a tiny number of failures over their short but active existences. Both Falcon 9 and Dragon have experienced several miscellaneous teething issues and technical difficulties over their ~7 years of launches, but only three anomalies resulted in failures that catastrophically impacted customer payloads: CRS-1, CRS-7, and Amos-6. Thus, out of a total of 46 Falcon 9 launches, approximately 94% have been complete successes. For perspective SpaceX’s first orbital rocket, Falcon 1, experienced total failures during its first three launch attempts, for a success rate of 40%.

SpaceX’s Falcon family of rockets. (Wikipedia)

Barring further flight hardware anomalies in the Falcon family, however, 2018 is likely to be even more of a boon for Falcon 9 (and Falcon Heavy). While Falcon Heavy is set to ring in the new year sometime in January 2018, just a few weeks away, far more significant for SpaceX’s launch business is the debut of the “final” iteration of Falcon 9, dubbed Block 5 or ‘V5,’ likely within the next several months. Block 5 has been heavily modified almost entirely for the sake of more efficient reuse, and will feature titanium grid fins (most recently spotted on Falcon Heavy) and several other changes. Altogether, SpaceX’s public goal is to be able to reuse Falcon 9 Block 5 as many as a dozen times with relative ease, and each booster’s lifespan could potentially be lengthened by a factor of 5-10 with more extensive periodic maintenance.

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This ‘final’ version of Falcon 9 will almost undoubtedly go through its own period of tweaks, changes, and iterative improvements once it debuts and begins to gather flight experience. Nevertheless, it’s plausible that once its minor problems are ironed out, SpaceX will choose to “freeze” the design and begin to aggressively transfer large sections of its engineering and manufacturing base over to the company’s Mars rocket, BFR. Ultimately, the highly reusable Block 5 evolution of Falcon 9 will allow SpaceX to transfer over its customers to reused rockets and thus recoup the cost of reusability R&D far faster than ever before, both by lowering the material cost of launch and enabling a considerably higher frequency of launches.

This crop of Falcon Heavy shows off its side cores, both sporting titanium grid fins that are considerably larger than the original aluminum fins. (SpaceX)

Taken as a whole, the culmination of the Falcon family’s evolution will pave SpaceX’s path to realizing its even wilder ambitions of providing ubiquitous and superior satellite internet and transforming itself into the backbone of crew and cargo transport to the Moon, Mars, and beyond. But that’s a story for another day…

While we wish we could jump forward to the end of 2018 and reflect upon even more incredible SpaceX achievements, you can follow SpaceX’s day by day progress live with our launch photographer Tom Cross on Twitter and Instagram @Teslarati. Significant upcoming events include the ever-secretive launch of Zuma (7:57pm EST, January 4) and the inaugural static fire and launch of the titanic Falcon Heavy (no earlier than Jan. 6 and Jan. 15).

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk reaffirms Tesla Semi mass production in 2026

The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year.

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Credit: Tesla Semi/X

Elon Musk has reaffirmed the Tesla Semi’s mass production date. He mentioned the update in a post on social media platform X during the weekend.

Tesla Semi Factory

The Tesla Semi was initially unveiled in late 2017, and its first deliveries were held in December 2022. Since then, Tesla has only been delivering the Semi to a handful of customers while it builds a dedicated factory for the Class 8 all-electric truck near its Giga Nevada facility.

Drone flyovers of the Tesla Semi factory over the past months have suggested that progress in the construction of the facility has been steady. More recent flyovers have even suggested that Tesla is now busy outfitting the facility with the necessary equipment for the mass production of the Semi.

Elon Musk’s Recent Comments

In a recent comment on X, Elon Musk reiterated the idea that the Semi was indeed expected to be mass produced in 2026. Musk shared his update as a response to a Tesla bull who recalled that Bill Gates did not believe that the Semi was feasible due to the limitations of battery technology. In his response, Musk posted a laughing emoji together with “Tesla Semi will be in volume production next year.” 

The Tesla Semi factory near Giga Nevada is expected to be capable of producing 50,000 units of the Class 8 all-electric truck per year. While this number may not be attained by the facility right out of the gate, it would only be a matter of time before the factory manages to hit an optimal production rate.

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In a video posted on social media earlier this year, Dan Priestley, who leads the Semi program at Tesla stated that the company is preparing for volume production over the coming quarters. With such a pace, the factory should be able to mass produce the Semi in 2026. 

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Elon Musk confirms Tesla AI6 chip is Project Dojo’s successor

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products.

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tesla-supercomputer-pre-dojo
Credit: Tim Zaman/Twitter

Earlier this week, reports emerged stating that Tesla has stepped back from its Project Dojo initiative. While the reports were initially framed as a negative development for the electric vehicle maker’s autonomous driving efforts, CEO Elon Musk later noted on X that Tesla was indeed halting its Dojo initiative.

Elon Musk’s Confirmation

As per Musk, Tesla was shuttering Project Dojo because it does not make sense for the company to divide its resources and scale two different AI chip designs. Dojo, after all, is designed to train the company’s autonomous driving program, and thus, it would not be rolled out to Tesla’s consumer products.

In a series of posts on X, Musk stated that it would make sense to just use Tesla’s AI5/AI6 to train its FSD and Autopilot systems. “In a supercomputer cluster, it would make sense to put many AI5/AI6 chips on a board, whether for inference or training, simply to reduce network cabling complexity & cost by a few orders of magnitude,” Musk said.

Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips are expected to be rolled out to the company’s consumer products, from Optimus to the Cybercab to the next-generation Roadster.

AI6 is Dojo’s Successor

What was particularly interesting about Musk’s comment was his mention of using AI5/AI6 chips for training. As per Musk, this strategy could be seen as “Dojo 3” in a way, since the performance of Tesla’s AI5 and AI6 chips is already notable. Musk’s comment about using AI6 chips for training caught the eye of many, including Apple and Rivian alumnus Phil Beisel, who noted that “AI6 is now Dojo.”

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“Dojo is Tesla’s AI training supercomputer, built around a custom chip known as the D1. The D1 and AI5/AI6 share many core design elements, particularly the math operations used in neural networks (e.g., matrix multiplication) and highly parallel processing.

“Dojo had a unique feature: chips arranged in a 5×5 grid using a system-on-wafer design, with etched interconnects enabling high-speed data transfer. In a sense, Dojo will live on as the generalized AI6. Going forward, all efforts will focus on AI6,” the tech veteran wrote in a post on X.

Elon Musk confirmed the Apple alumnus’ musings, with the CEO responding with a “bullseye” emoji. Musk is evidently excited for Tesla’s AI6 chip, which is expected to produced by Samsung’s upcoming Texas fabrication facility. In a post on X, Musk stated that he would personally be walking Samsung’s line to accelerate the output of Tesla’s AI6 computers.

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Tesla’s new upgrade makes the Cybertruck extra-terrestrial

The upgrade was announced by the electric vehicle maker on social media platform X.

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Credit: Tesla

It took a while, but the Tesla Cybertruck’s rock sliders and battery armor upgrades have finally arrived. The upgrade was announced by the electric vehicle maker on social media platform X, to much appreciation from Cybertruck owners.

Tesla Releases Cybertruck Armor Package

As could be seen in Tesla’s official Shop, the Cybertruck Terrestrial Armor Package is available only for Foundation Series units for now, though non-Foundation Series vehicles should have access to the upgrade around September 2025. Price-wise, the armor package is quite reasonable at $3,500.

For that price, Cybertruck owners would be able to acquire enhanced rock sliders and an underbody battery shield that should allow the all-electric pickup truck to go through harsh terrain without any issues. Each purchase of the Terrestrial Armor Package includes 1 Underbody shield, 1 Left side structural rocker, and 1 Right side structural rocker.

Most importantly, the Armor Package’s price includes shipment to the customer’s preferred Tesla Service Center and installation.

Extra-Terrestrial

Tesla describes its Cybertruck Armor Package as follows: “Get extra-terrestrial. The Cybertruck Terrestrial Armor Package includes enhanced rock sliders and an underbody battery shield to provide greater protection from rocks and debris when off-roading on tough terrain. The rock sliders are constructed from coated steel and the underbody battery shield is constructed from aluminum for greater protection against scraping.”

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Initial impressions from a Cybertruck owner who was fortunate enough to test the Armor Package in real-world off-road conditions have been positive. The item’s pricing also seems to be quite appreciated by Cybertruck owners in forums such as the Cybertruck Owners Club, with some members stating that they would be acquiring the package for their own all-electric pickup trucks.

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