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SpaceX ready to begin training astronauts for first private spacewalk

SpaceX could conduct the first private spacewalk in history as few as six months from now.

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Two members of the “Polaris Program” say that SpaceX could begin training private astronauts for the first private spacewalk in spaceflight history as early as May or June 2022.

Revealed earlier this year, the Polaris Program is a sort of hybridization of orbital spaceflight tourism and technology development and has one primary goal: to “rapidly advance human spaceflight capabilities.” Created in partnership with SpaceX by billionaire and Shift4 Payments founder Jared Isaacman, who also funded and flew on SpaceX’s first private Crew Dragon launch, Polaris aims to pick up where Inspiration4 left off last year.

While it will still be affiliated with and seek to help St. Jude Children’s Research Hospital, the Polaris Program will focus on the development of several crucial technologies that SpaceX will need to accomplish its ultimate goal of spreading humanity throughout our solar system.

One of those crucial technologies is a cheap, reliable, and easy-to-use spacesuit that will allow future SpaceX astronauts to work outside of the safety of their spacecraft in the vacuum of space, and, one day, walk on the surfaces of other planets and moons. For Crew Dragon, SpaceX has already developed an ‘intra-vehicular activity’ or IVA pressure suit that all Dragon astronauts must wear during mission-critical maneuvers. In the event of capsule depressurization, the suits would be able to keep Dragon astronauts alive inside the capsule for at least a few days, supplying them with clean air and maintaining enough pressure to avoid altitude sickness (or worse).

However, because IVA suits generally prioritize unpressurized mobility, the astronauts inside them can do very little when the suits are fully pressurized. At sea level, every person on Earth is subjected to standard atmospheric pressure, which amounts to about 101 kilopascals or 14.5 pounds per square inch. In a spacesuit, the suit itself must maintain a pocket of air at similar pressures, ultimately meaning that the outer skin of a suit must resist the same force. To put that into context, even operating at the absolute minimum pressures that humans can realistically tolerate and use (4-6 psi), simply moving one’s arm in an IVA suit could require hundreds of pounds or kilograms of force.

Four private Axiom Space astronauts await liftoff in their SpaceX IVA suits. (SpaceX)

Even in NASA’s aging extra-vehicular activity (EVA) spacesuits, which feature mechanical joints and other upgrades meant to make movement and life easier inside them, spacewalks are one of the most brutal and exhausting physical activities conceivable, requiring extraordinary levels of near-constant exertion for hours on end. According to comments made to Spaceflight Now by Jared Isaacman and by pilot Scott Poteet in an interview covered by AmericaSpace, SpaceX’s first EVA suit will be quite basic. To some extent, they will be heavily modified versions of SpaceX’s existing IVA suit design, but with much more advanced thermal management, an improved helmet/visor, and – most importantly – the addition of a number of mechanized joints.

An early Gemini-era EVA suit. SpaceX’s first prototypes will likely be quite similar. (NASA)
NASA’s modern EVA suit.

As was the case with early NASA EVA suits developed in the 1960s, SpaceX’s first EVA suits will receive consumables, power, and communications through cables (tethers) that connect to Dragon’s life support. It will take SpaceX some time to develop a miniaturized, portable life support system as safe and capable as the packs used on NASA’s EVA suits. A tethered EVA suit will still allow SpaceX or private astronauts to perform EVAs and work on or inspect the exterior of their Crew Dragon or Starship spacecraft – capabilities that could save lives in certain emergency scenarios. SpaceX’s first priority, then, will be to make sure that the basics work well in space and that the suits actually allow astronauts to perform tasks that require good finger and limb dexterity without immediately exhausting themselves.

“You’re adding lots of redundancies in the suit that don’t exist today, since it’s more last line of defense,” Isaacman said, referring to the differences between SpaceX’s current suit and the new extravehicular spacesuit. “You have a new visor, new seals, then mobility, joints everywhere for increased mobility and dexterity in the fingers and such. I think, visually, it will be more along the lines of what it currently looks like, but very much like a new suit.”

Spaceflight Now – May 10th, 2022

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The first of up to three Polaris missions – Polaris Dawn – is currently scheduled to launch as early as November 2022. All four private astronauts – made up of two Polaris employees and two SpaceX employees – will wear the new EVA suits in place of their usual IVA suits, while only two members of the crew will ultimately attempt to exit the capsule and perform a single EVA that could last roughly 30-90 minutes. To do so, the entire Dragon will be depressurized and one of two hatches opened will be opened, while the the other two EVA-suited astronauts will simply remain in their seats. Regardless of the outcome, it will be the first private spacewalk in the history of spaceflight.

The astronauts training to prepare for Polaris Dawn will focus heavily on the EVA, offering either the two chosen crew members or all four candidates an opportunity to experience deep-sea diving and test EVA suits both underwater and inside a Dragon capsule simulator.

Beyond supporting SpaceX’s EVA spacesuit development, Polaris Dawn’s crew will also conduct a range of science experiments, attempt to connect to high-speed internet in orbit through Starlink laser links, and even try to break the record for the highest Earth orbit reached by a crewed spacecraft (1400 km / 870 mi).

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk calls Earth’s data centers “peanuts” next to what SpaceX is planning in orbit

Elon Musk says SpaceX capex efficiency is underestimated as orbital data centers loom by 2028.

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Elon Musk is pushing back on one of the biggest worries hanging over SpaceX stock. In a reply on X on Sunday, Musk said the company’s capital expenditure efficiency is severely underestimated. He was responding to a Milk Road Stocks post citing analyst Kyle Reidhead, who estimates SpaceX will need to spend roughly $470 billion over the next five quarters.

Reidhead built that figure around the target SpaceX set on its third quarter earnings call: 13 gigawatts or more of compute by the end of 2027. In his breakdown, Nvidia captures 83 to 89 percent of the spending. SpaceX ended the quarter with 1.7 GW of nameplate compute and guided to $35 billion to $40 billion in fourth quarter capex, as Teslarati reported.

Musk did not attach a number to his claim, but the earnings call shows the argument. CFO Bret Johnsen said new compute currently pays for itself in under a year at today’s pricing, and Musk said that window could shrink to six months next year. Using that pace, Reidhead argues about $230 billion of the $470 billion could come from operating cash flow and about $60 billion from SpaceX’s roughly $90 billion cash pile, leaving around $180 billion to borrow. Musk confirmed last week that SpaceX had already closed a new $40 billion debt raise to buy GPUs.

The ground buildout is not the end goal. It is what is meant to pay for the move to orbit. Replying on Friday to charts built from Sequoia partner Shaun Maguire’s SpaceX model, Musk wrote that “Terrestrial compute will be peanuts compared to orbital compute,” adding that orbital compute deployed per month “probably exceeds terrestrial around the end of 2028 and then far exceeds it in 2029.”

Maguire’s model shows how steep that path is. It has capex climbing from $88 billion this year to $290 billion in 2027 and $369 billion in 2028, with SpaceX burning $77.8 billion in cash this year and $122.6 billion next year before turning $114.9 billion cash positive in 2028. Musk’s response to the model was, “I think we can do better.”

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The orbital half runs through Starmind. SpaceX plans to operate up to 1 million AI satellites flying in clusters of about 10, linked by roughly 10 terabits of bandwidth, with deployment of thousands of units starting as soon as late 2027 out of its Gigasat factory in Bastrop, Texas, according to SpaceX’s space safety page. Musk has said each Starmind spacecraft will carry more than 250 kW of solar power.

Getting there depends on launch volume. Maguire’s model assumes 250 Starship flights in 2028, up from two this year and 38 next year. The nearer test is financial: SpaceX guided to $33 billion to $37 billion in first quarter 2027 revenue, more than double the $14.58 billion it booked in Q3, and Musk reposted that guidance again on Sunday morning.

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SpaceX President to gift Trump Accounts her SpaceX stock

Gwynne Shotwell’s 2 million SpaceX shares are headed to children’s Trump Accounts starting this December.

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Concept rendering of SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell overlooks the company’s Hawthorne, California headquarters as an American flag flies over the campus at sunset.

SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell said Friday that more than 2 million SpaceX shares belonging to her and her husband, Robert, will be distributed to children’s Trump Accounts in December, turning a pledge she made over the summer into an actual transfer. “Robert and I are thrilled that our gift of over 2 million shares of SpaceX stock will be distributed to children’s Trump accounts in December!” Shotwell wrote on X, adding that the shares are “transferring to escrow as we speak.”

The first round goes to children aged 11 to 17 who live in ZIP codes where the median family income is $57,000 or less, along with kids in ZIP codes with too few residents for the Census to report that figure. Shotwell said those families should receive a notice by Monday, Reuters reported.

A second gift is expected to be finalized in the next few weeks. That round will cover eligible children in military families serving overseas, children in foster care, and more kids in Texas counties near the Shotwells’ home where median family income is $90,000 or less. Elon Musk replied to the announcement with “Cool” and a heart emoji.

Shotwell first announced the donation on July 6, less than a month after SpaceX priced its record IPO at $135 per share on the Nasdaq. IPO filings showed Shotwell owned about 12.6 million SpaceX shares, Quartz reported at the time, which makes the gift roughly one sixth of her stake. At the roughly $146 per share used to value Musk’s own pledge earlier this month, 2 million shares are worth about $290 million.

How the stock would actually reach the accounts had been an open question since July. Treasury guidance acknowledged that stock donations could flow into Trump Accounts, but it did not explain the mechanics for a program whose contributions default into an S&P 500 index fund. Shotwell thanked the Treasury, the IRS, the Dell Foundation, Greater Horizons, Invest America and the law firms Morgan Lewis and Gibson Dunn for “working over the past few months to make this happen.”

The transfer also works as a dry run for a far larger gift. On October 19, Musk said he would give one of his SpaceX shares to every kid in America next year and called it “the first of many.” With roughly 72 million children in the country, that pledge is worth about $10.5 billion. President Donald Trump thanked Musk the same day and said the shares would go through Trump Accounts, though neither SpaceX nor the Treasury has published how or when that distribution will happen.

Shotwell’s recipients also fill a gap in the program itself. Trump Accounts launched on July 4, and the $1,000 Treasury deposit only goes to babies born between 2025 and 2028. Teenagers aged 11 to 17 receive no government seed money, so for many of the families getting a notice on Monday, SpaceX stock will be the first asset in the account. The accounts convert into retirement accounts when the child turns 18.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving becomes main pillar of new Referral Program

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving is now the centerpiece of the company’s newly revised Referral Program, which launched on October 29.

Instead of referring people to purchase vehicles and the referrer receiving $250 in Tesla Credit, the new program now incentivizes Full Self-Driving subscriptions.

If a Tesla owner is on an FSD trial and uses a referral code to subscribe to Full Self-Driving, the person whose Referral Link was used will receive one month of FSD (Supervised). Their code can be utilized 12 times per year, with January 1 marking the reset date.

Realistically, this means that if your Referral Code is used by 12 Tesla owners on an FSD trial, you will receive a full year of FSD for free.

The previous program made it pretty difficult to get referrals; buying a vehicle is obviously a much larger financial strain than subscribing to Full Self-Driving for a month.

Of course, the previous Referral Program also offered a tangible benefit: $250 in credits you could use on Service, Supercharging, or anything in the Tesla Shop. It truly could pay for someone’s travel for a year. It recently bought me a new backpack and a T-shirt.

However, this new program is much more attainable for those who do not have a massive online presence of a slew of friends in the Tesla community who will use the code and max out subscriptions for vehicle purchases.

The Full Self-Driving suite will now be the keystone of the Referral Program, which makes it more inclusive and more fun for everyone with an awesome benefit.

It also gives the impression that Tesla is truly focused on FSD subscriptions, something that saw a tremendous increase in volume in Q3, as 75 percent of deliveries for the quarter came with an FSD subscription attached.

Full Self-Driving data is so instrumental to the suite’s improvement that this kind of program benefits Tesla as much as it does the consumer.

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