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SpaceX preparing Dragon 2 for Feb. 2018 launch, progressing Dragon 1 reuse efforts
NASA has released tentative flight schedules for the first Commercial Crew Program missions of Boeing and SpaceX, aligning with recent suggestions that SpaceX’s schedule had slipped by several months. SpaceX’s first Commercial Crew mission, an uncrewed inaugural test of Dragon 2, has moved from late 2017 into early 2018, and is now targeting a launch no earlier than February.
Presenting at the 2017 ISS R&D Conference in D.C. earlier this week, chief Elon Musk reiterated that SpaceX was laser-focused on doing everything possible to ensure that Falcon 9 and Dragon 2 are as reliable and safe as can be. The company’s first crewed launch is subsequently planned for no earlier than June 2018, under the condition of a nominal demonstration flight of Dragon 2 four months prior. The choice to end development of propulsive landing of Dragon 2 will likely help the company more easily meet their schedule goals.
During the same talk, Musk took time to address what he considered a missed opportunity, SpaceX’s historic reuse of a Dragon spacecraft with the launch of NASA’s CRS-11 mission in June. In Musk’s opinion, SpaceX should have taken the opportunity to promote the genuinely unique and difficult accomplishment. He certainly isn’t wrong. To paraphrase, a private company conducted the first orbital reuse of a spacecraft since the Space Shuttle retired in 2011, and also became one of only three other orbital vehicles to have ever flown to orbit more than once.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk speaks after unveiling the Dragon V2 spacecraft in Hawthorne, California May 29, 2014. Photo: REUTERS/Mario Anzuoni
Furthermore, SpaceX has suggested for quite some time that the company was planning on ending the manufacture of Dragon 1 pressure vessels in order to retool the assembly line and begin fully focusing on Dragon 2 manufacturing. Recent persistent rumors would seem to suggest that this may have already occurred, or is at least very close to occurring. SpaceX is likely to benefit considerably by exploiting the opportunity they have to refurbish and reuse orbital spacecraft, and it is likely that a majority of the nine cargo missions left in its first CRS contract will be conducted with refurbished Dragon capsules.
Of course, a great deal of the capsule must be replaced with new parts as a result of ocean landings, but Musk said he expects the next Dragon reuse and all future reuses to save the SpaceX nearly 50% of the cost of manufacturing an entirely new spacecraft. Musk admitted that the first refurbishment of Dragon likely ended up costing as much or more than a new vehicle, but this is to be expected for the first attempt to reuse any sort of space hardware that must survive some form of reentry heating and saltwater immersion.
Throughout the discussion, Elon Musk frequently and wholeheartedly praised NASA for enabling SpaceX to exist and to remain the agile aerospace company it wants to be while still working as a private partner of the agency. It is indeed exceptional that NASA’s CRS team has allowed SpaceX to upgrade and iterate Falcon 9 and Dragon hardware and procedures, with NASA expressing an uncharacteristic level of flexibility by permitting the many small additional risks the constant state of flux of SpaceX’s hardware has inevitably introduced.
Musk went so far as to state flat-out that Bill Gerstenmaier, NASA’s longstanding head of manned spaceflight, was “one of [his] favorite people in the world”. SpaceX and Musk’s consistent willingness to publicly thank and praise NASA has been an exception to the norm of the aerospace industry, and SpaceX and NASA will undoubtedly continue their strong relationship well into the future.
Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, says that something that was expected with version 14.3 of the company’s Full Self-Driving platform has already partially shipped with the current build of version 14.2.
Tesla and CEO Elon Musk have teased on several occasions that reasoning will be a big piece of future Full Self-Driving builds, helping bring forth the “sentient” narrative that the company has pushed for these more advanced FSD versions.
Back in October on the Q3 Earnings Call, Musk said:
“With reasoning, it’s literally going to think about which parking spot to pick. It’ll drop you off at the entrance of the store, then go find a parking spot. It’s going to spot empty spots much better than a human. It’s going to use reasoning to solve things.”
Musk said in the same month:
“By v14.3, your car will feel like it is sentient.”
Amazingly, Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2.2.2, which is the most recent iteration released, is very close to this sentient feeling. However, there are more things that need to be improved, and logic appears to be in the future plans to help with decision-making in general, alongside other refinements and features.
On Thursday evening, Elluswamy revealed that some of the reasoning features have already been rolled out, confirming that it has been added to navigation route changes during construction, as well as with parking options.
He added that “more and more reasoning will ship in Q1.”
🚨 Tesla’s Ashok Elluswamy reveals Nav decisions when encountering construction and parking options contain “some elements of reasoning”
More uses of reasoning will be shipped later this quarter, a big tidbit of info as we wait v14.3 https://t.co/jty8llgsKM
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 9, 2026
Interestingly, parking improvements were hinted at being added in the initial rollout of v14.2 several months ago. These had not rolled out to vehicles quite yet, as they were listed under the future improvements portion of the release notes, but it appears things have already started to make their way to cars in a limited fashion.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
As reasoning is more involved in more of the Full Self-Driving suite, it is likely we will see cars make better decisions in terms of routing and navigation, which is a big complaint of many owners (including me).
Additionally, the operation as a whole should be smoother and more comfortable to owners, which is hard to believe considering how good it is already. Nevertheless, there are absolutely improvements that need to be made before Tesla can introduce completely unsupervised FSD.
Elon Musk
Tesla’s Elon Musk: 10 billion miles needed for safe Unsupervised FSD
As per the CEO, roughly 10 billion miles of training data are required due to reality’s “super long tail of complexity.”
Tesla CEO Elon Musk has provided an updated estimate for the training data needed to achieve truly safe unsupervised Full Self-Driving (FSD).
As per the CEO, roughly 10 billion miles of training data are required due to reality’s “super long tail of complexity.”
10 billion miles of training data
Musk comment came as a reply to Apple and Rivian alum Paul Beisel, who posted an analysis on X about the gap between tech demonstrations and real-world products. In his post, Beisel highlighted Tesla’s data-driven lead in autonomy, and he also argued that it would not be easy for rivals to become a legitimate competitor to FSD quickly.
“The notion that someone can ‘catch up’ to this problem primarily through simulation and limited on-road exposure strikes me as deeply naive. This is not a demo problem. It is a scale, data, and iteration problem— and Tesla is already far, far down that road while others are just getting started,” Beisel wrote.
Musk responded to Beisel’s post, stating that “Roughly 10 billion miles of training data is needed to achieve safe unsupervised self-driving. Reality has a super long tail of complexity.” This is quite interesting considering that in his Master Plan Part Deux, Elon Musk estimated that worldwide regulatory approval for autonomous driving would require around 6 billion miles.
FSD’s total training miles
As 2025 came to a close, Tesla community members observed that FSD was already nearing 7 billion miles driven, with over 2.5 billion miles being from inner city roads. The 7-billion-mile mark was passed just a few days later. This suggests that Tesla is likely the company today with the most training data for its autonomous driving program.
The difficulties of achieving autonomy were referenced by Elon Musk recently, when he commented on Nvidia’s Alpamayo program. As per Musk, “they will find that it’s easy to get to 99% and then super hard to solve the long tail of the distribution.” These sentiments were echoed by Tesla VP for AI software Ashok Elluswamy, who also noted on X that “the long tail is sooo long, that most people can’t grasp it.”
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Tesla earns top honors at MotorTrend’s SDV Innovator Awards
MotorTrend’s SDV Awards were presented during CES 2026 in Las Vegas.
Tesla emerged as one of the most recognized automakers at MotorTrend’s 2026 Software-Defined Vehicle (SDV) Innovator Awards.
As could be seen in a press release from the publication, two key Tesla employees were honored for their work on AI, autonomy, and vehicle software. MotorTrend’s SDV Awards were presented during CES 2026 in Las Vegas.
Tesla leaders and engineers recognized
The fourth annual SDV Innovator Awards celebrate pioneers and experts who are pushing the automotive industry deeper into software-driven development. Among the most notable honorees for this year was Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Vice President of AI Software, who received a Pioneer Award for his role in advancing artificial intelligence and autonomy across the company’s vehicle lineup.
Tesla also secured recognition in the Expert category, with Lawson Fulton, a staff Autopilot machine learning engineer, honored for his contributions to Tesla’s driver-assistance and autonomous systems.
Tesla’s software-first strategy
While automakers like General Motors, Ford, and Rivian also received recognition, Tesla’s multiple awards stood out given the company’s outsized role in popularizing software-defined vehicles over the past decade. From frequent OTA updates to its data-driven approach to autonomy, Tesla has consistently treated vehicles as evolving software platforms rather than static products.
This has made Tesla’s vehicles very unique in their respective sectors, as they are arguably the only cars that objectively get better over time. This is especially true for vehicles that are loaded with the company’s Full Self-Driving system, which are getting progressively more intelligent and autonomous over time. The majority of Tesla’s updates to its vehicles are free as well, which is very much appreciated by customers worldwide.
Tesla AI Head says future FSD feature has already partially shipped
Tesla’s Elon Musk: 10 billion miles needed for safe Unsupervised FSD
