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SpaceX private astronaut launch debut to reuse Crew-1 Dragon spacecraft
A former NASA astronaut now employed by Axiom Space says that SpaceX’s private astronaut launch debut will reuse the same Crew Dragon spacecraft currently supporting NASA’s Crew-1 mission in orbit.
Currently just a few weeks into a planned six-month stint in orbit, potentially marking the longest uninterrupted flight of an American spacecraft ever, Crew Dragon capsule C207 and an expendable trunk section arrived at the International Space Station (ISS) on November 16th. Known as Crew-1, the mission represents SpaceX and NASA’s commercial operational astronaut launch debut, carrying four astronauts to the ISS.
Crucially, the mission has been an almost flawless success so far and Falcon 9 has now completed four Crew Dragon launches without issue. On the Dragon side of things, the Crew-1 spacecraft performed a bit less perfectly than those tasked with flying Demo-1 and Demo-2, but SpaceX handled the minor issues that arose with the professionalism and composure of a team far more familiar with human spaceflight.
Early success aside, there is still some definite uncertainty ahead of Crew Dragon. While several Russian spacecraft have decades of experience spending at least several months at a time in orbit, a crewed US spacecraft has never spent more than 84 days in orbit. SpaceX itself actually beat out NASA to secure the second-place record with Crew Dragon’s 63-day Demo-2 astronaut launch debut, completed with a successful reentry and splashdown on August 2nd.
However, Crew-1 is expected to more than double that previous US record and almost triple SpaceX’s own second-place record, spending roughly 180 days (six months, give or take) in orbit. Barring an unprecedented space station or spacecraft emergency, Crew Dragon C207 will undock from ISS, reenter Earth’s atmosphere, and splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico or the Atlantic Ocean sometime in May 2021. Of course, as the first recoverable US spacecraft to spend anywhere close to that long in orbit, the Crew-1 Crew Dragon will be closely monitored to ensure the safety and reliability of its intricate reentry and recovery systems after some six months exposed to the extremes of space.
Still, success is by far the likeliest outcome. When Crew Dragon C207 splashes down, its four astronaut passengers will be carefully extricated and the inspection and refurbishment process will begin almost immediately thereafter. Crew-1 will technically be the second Crew Dragon spacecraft to be refurbished after an orbital spaceflight, following Demo-2 capsule C206’s inaugural Dragon 2 reuse perhaps just a month or two prior.
The Demo-2 Crew Dragon capsule is currently scheduled to fly a second time as early as March 31st, 2021 on SpaceX’s Crew-2 mission, ferrying another four astronauts to the ISS. If successful, Crew-2 will represent the first commercial astronaut launch ever to reuse both an orbital-class rocket booster and an orbital spacecraft, and the NASA-overseen process of refurbishment and re-flight will thus pave the way for future flight-proven astronaut launches. That includes private company Axiom Space’s first private AX-1 astronaut launch, which is currently scheduled to launch as early as Q4 2021.
AX-1 will be captained by former NASA astronaut Mike Lopez-Algeria and carry three other private astronauts, including Israeli multimillionaire Eytan Stibbe. SpaceX will thus be tasked with launching Israel’s second astronaut ever after Ilan Ramon was killed when a heat shield design flaw caused NASA Space Shuttle Columbia to break up during reentry in 2003.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
