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SpaceX's in-flight rocket engine failure threatens NASA astronaut launch debut

Falcon 9 punches through Max Q - peak aerodynamic stress - during its Starlink L6 launch. The booster did not survive the mission. (Richard Angle)

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An in-flight rocket engine failure during SpaceX’s March 18th Starlink launch could pose a threat to the company’s imminent NASA astronaut launch debut according to a statement provided by the space agency yesterday.

SpaceX and NASA are currently working around the clock to prepare a Falcon 9 rocket and Crew Dragon spacecraft for the company’s inaugural astronaut launch, a flight known as Demonstration Mission 2 (Demo-2/DM-2). All launch vehicle and spacecraft hardware – including booster B1058, an expendable upper stage, a spacecraft trunk, and the Crew Dragon capsule itself – are already believed to be at SpaceX’s Florida launch and processing facilities.

Prior to March 18th, the biggest gating items were believed to be a few final parachute tests and a whole lot of paperwork and reviews, as well as some important but less showstopping astronaut training. Unfortunately, SpaceX has suffered two unforeseen issues of varying severity in the last few days, both of which are now all but guaranteed to impact Crew Dragon’s astronaut launch debut schedule.

“According to the CCtCap contracts, SpaceX is required to make available to NASA all data and resulting reports. SpaceX, with NASA’s concurrence, would need to implement any corrective actions found during the investigation related to its commercial crew work prior to its flight test with astronauts to the International Space Station. NASA and SpaceX are holding the current mid-to-late May launch timeframe, and would adjust the date based on review of the data, if appropriate.”

NASA — March 25th, 2020

B1048 lifted off for the fifth and final time on March 18th, 2020. (Richard Angle)

On March 18th, less than three minutes after liftoff and shortly before stage separation was scheduled, Falcon 9 booster B1048 – on its historic fifth launch attempt – suffered an engine failure visible on SpaceX’s official webcast. By all appearances, Falcon 9’s autonomous flight computer accounted for the engine’s failure, shutdown, and the resultant loss of thrust by burning B1048’s eight remaining engines for several seconds longer than planned.

Falcon 9 B1048 is pictured during launch, one frame (~0.05s) before it suffered an engine failure. (SpaceX)
The first frame of the off-nominal event. The extremely unusual flare is very likely one of Falcon 9’s nine Merlin 1D engines exploding during flight. (SpaceX)

While that extra few seconds of burn time likely ensured that the rocket’s upper stage was able to make it to the correct orbit after stage separation, roughly five minutes after B1048’s extremely rapid engine failure, contact was lost. For the first time ever, there were no landing burn-related call-outs from SpaceX launch operators, the first sign that something was seriously wrong. A few minutes later, SpaceX’s webcast hosts acknowledged that the booster had been lost, perhaps lacking the propellant it needed to attempt a landing.

For reference, Merlin 1D engines likely consume some ~270 kg (600 lb) of fuel each second. Falcon 9’s landing propellant reserves are believed to be on the order of 50+ metric tons (110,000 lb). Excluding the failed engine, eight Merlin 1Ds burning at full thrust for an additional 5 seconds would consume 20% of the propellant needed for landing; 10 seconds and it would use 40%.

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The anomaly was Merlin 1D engine’s first in-flight failure ever. The 2012 failure of one of an original Falcon 9 V1.0’s rocket’s nine Merlin 1C engines is SpaceX’s only other in-flight failure.

It’s likely that B1048’s engine failure was primarily related to the fact that the booster was SpaceX’s pathfinder for a fifth-flight reusability milestone, making it the most reused rocket booster ever launched. NASA currently requires all of its Crew Dragon missions to launch on new Falcon 9 rockets, hopefully mitigating direct corollaries between the Starlink L6 anomaly and astronaut launches. Regardless, the space agency says that the company will now have to complete its internal failure review and implement necessary hardware, software, or rule changes before it’s allowed to launch NASA astronauts.

In a major twist, NASA has effectively confirmed that SpaceX will become the first private company in history to launch astronauts into orbit. (SpaceX)
Technicians prepare SpaceX’s Crew Dragon Demo-2 spacecraft for its historic launch debut in February 2020. (SpaceX)

That investigation could take a matter of weeks, possibly even less, but it’s entirely possible that it could take months – let alone fixing the problems that allowed the in-flight Merlin 1D engine failure to happen in the first place. Ultimately, it will almost certainly make even the first flights of Falcon 9 and Heavy rocket boosters safer, but it could substantially delay SpaceX’s Demo-2 astronaut launch debut. Still targeted no earlier than (NET) mid-to-late May 2020, it’s safe to say that it’s reasonable to expect that schedule to slip over the next 4-6 weeks. Stay tuned for updates.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Model Y may gain an extra 90 miles of range with Panasonic’s next-gen battery

The Japanese company is pursuing an anode-free design.

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Credit: Tesla Manufacturing

Panasonic is developing a new high-capacity EV battery that could potentially extend the range of a Tesla Model Y by 90 miles. 

The Japanese company, one of Tesla’s key battery suppliers, is pursuing an anode-free design that it says could deliver a “world-leading” level of capacity by the end of 2027.

Panasonic’s anode-free design

The technology Panasonic is pursuing would eliminate the anode during the manufacturing process, as noted in a Reuters report. By freeing up space for more active cathode materials such as nickel, cobalt, and aluminum, the Japanese company expects a 25% increase in capacity without expanding battery size. 

That could allow Tesla’s Model Y to gain an estimated 145 kilometers (90 miles) of additional range if equipped with a battery that matches its current pack’s size. At the same time, Panasonic could use smaller, lighter batteries to achieve the Model Y’s current range. 

Panasonic also aims to reduce reliance on nickel, which remains one of the more costly raw materials. A senior executive previewed the initiative to reporters ahead of a scheduled presentation by Panasonic Energy’s technology chief, Shoichiro Watanabe.

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Tesla implications

The breakthrough, if achieved, could strengthen Panasonic’s position as Tesla’s longest-standing battery partner at a time when the automaker is preparing to enter an era of extreme scale driven by high-volume products like the Cybercab and Optimus.

Elon Musk has stated that products like Optimus would be manufactured at very high scale, so it would likely be an all-hands-on-deck situation for the company’s suppliers.

Panasonic did not share details on production costs or how quickly the new batteries might scale for commercial applications. That being said, the Japanese supplier has long been a partner of Tesla, so it makes sense for the company to also push for the next generation of battery innovation while the EV maker pursues even more lofty ambitions.

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Tesla called ‘biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen’ by Yale associate dean

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) is being called “the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen” by Yale School of Management Senior Associate Dean Jeff Sonnenfeld, who made the comments in a recent interview with CNBC.

Sonnenfeld’s comments echo those of many of the company’s skeptics, who argue that its price-to-earnings ratio is far too high when compared to other companies also in the tech industry. Tesla is often compared to companies like Apple, Nvidia, and Microsoft when these types of discussions come up.

Fundamentally, yes, Tesla does trade at a P/E level that is significantly above that of any comparable company.

However, it is worth mentioning that Tesla is not traded like a typical company, either.

Here’s what Sonnenfeld said regarding Tesla:

“This is the biggest meme stock we’ve ever seen. Even at its peak, Amazon was nowhere near this level. The PE on this, well above 200, is just crazy. When you’ve got stocks like Nvidia, the price-earnings ratio is around 25 or 30, and Apple is maybe 35 or 36, Microsoft around the same. I mean, this is way out of line to be at a 220 PE. It’s crazy, and they’ve, I think, put a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Many analysts have admitted in the past that they believe Tesla is an untraditional stock in the sense that many analysts trade it based on narrative and not fundamentals. Ryan Brinkman of J.P. Morgan once said:

“Tesla shares continue to strike us as having become completely divorced from the fundamentals.”

Dan Nathan, another notorious skeptic of Tesla shares, recently turned bullish on the stock because of “technicals and sentiment.” He said just last week:

“I think from a trading perspective, it looks very interesting.”

Nathan said Tesla shares show signs of strength moving forward, including holding its 200-day moving average and holding against current resistance levels.

Sonnenfeld’s synopsis of Tesla shares points out that there might be “a little too much emphasis on the magic wand of Musk.”

Elon Musk just bought $1 billion in Tesla stock, his biggest purchase ever

This could refer to different things: perhaps his recent $1 billion stock buy, which sent the stock skyrocketing, or the fact that many Tesla investors are fans and owners who do not buy and sell on numbers, but rather on news that Musk might report himself.

Tesla is trading around $423.76 at the time of publication, as of 3:25 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla makes big change to Full Self-Driving doghouse that drivers will like

Now, it is changing the timeframe of which strikes will be removed, cutting it in half. The strikes will be removed every 3.5 days, as long as no strikes are received during the time period.

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Tesla's Cabin-facing camera is used to monitor driver attentiveness. (Credit: Andy Slye/YouTube)

Tesla is making a big change to its Full Self-Driving doghouse that drivers will like.

The doghouse is a hypothetical term used to describe the penalty period that Tesla applies to drivers who receive too many infractions related to distracted driving.

Previously, Tesla implemented a seven-day ban on the use of Full Self-Driving for those who received five strikes in a vehicle equipped with a cabin camera and three strikes for those without a cabin camera.

It also forgave one strike per week of Full Self-Driving use, provided the driver did not receive any additional strikes during the seven-day period.

Now, it is changing the timeframe of which strikes will be removed, cutting it in half. The strikes will be removed every 3.5 days, as long as no strikes are received during the time period.

The change was found by Not a Tesla App, which noticed the adjustment in the Owner’s Manual for the 2025.32 Software Update.

The system undoubtedly helps improve safety as it helps keep drivers honest. However, there are definitely workarounds, which people are using and promoting for monetary gain, and you can find them on basically any online marketplace, including TikTok shop and Amazon:

People are marketing the product as an FSD cheat device, which the cabin-facing camera will not be able to detect, allowing you to watch something on a phone or look through the windshield at the road.

The safeguards implemented by Tesla are designed to protect drivers from distractions and also protect the company itself from liability. People are still using Full Self-Driving as if it were a fully autonomous product, and it is not.

Tesla even says that the driver must pay attention and be ready to take over in any scenario:

“Yes. Autopilot is a driver assistance system that is intended to be used only with a fully attentive driver. It does not turn a Tesla into a fully autonomous vehicle.

Before enabling Autopilot, you must agree to “keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times” and to always “maintain control and responsibility for your vehicle.” Once engaged, Autopilot will also deliver an escalating series of visual and audio warnings, reminding you to place your hands on the wheel if insufficient torque is applied or your vehicle otherwise detects you may not be attentive enough to the road ahead. If you repeatedly ignore these warnings, you will be locked out from using Autopilot during that trip.

You can override any of Autopilot’s features at any time by steering or applying the accelerator at any time.”

It is good that Tesla is rewarding those who learn from their mistakes with this shorter timeframe to lose the strikes. It won’t be needed forever, though, as eventually, the company will solve autonomy. The question is: when?

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