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SpaceX snags launch contract from Arianespace after Vega rocket fails twice

(Richard Angle)

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In a rare victory for international launch competition, SpaceX has snagged a contract to launch an Italian Earth observation satellite from European launch monopoly and political heavyweight Arianespace.

After spending the better part of a decade treading water as SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket came to dominate the global launch market, Arianespace has become increasingly reliant on European Space Agency (ESA) and European Union (EU) agreements that require signatories to launch domestic satellites and spacecraft on the Ariane 5, Ariane 6, and Italian Vega rockets. Save for a few slow-moving technology development programs that have yet to bear any actionable fruit, the company – heavily subsidized by the European Union – has almost completely failed to face the threat posed by SpaceX head-on by prioritizing the development of rockets that can actually compete with Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy on cost, performance, and availability.

Instead, over the last five or so years, Arianespace and the European Space Agency have increasingly pursued political agreements and legislation that commit member states to only fly payloads on Ariane 5, Ariane 6, and Vega rockets if at all possible.

A recent development offers the best look yet at what many European space agencies likely suffer through as a consequence of their governments signing away access to an increasingly competitive launch industry – often seemingly in return for Arianespace selecting contractors or (re)locating development hubs or factories in certain countries. Notably, sometime in September 2021, the Italian Space Agency (ASI) confirmed signs that it was moving the launch of its COSMO SkyMed CSG-2 Earth observation satellite from a new Arianespace rocket to SpaceX’s Falcon 9.

The second COSMO SkyMed Second Generation satellite (CSG-2) was planned to be launched with VEGA-C within 2021, but the launcher development has been impacted by the VV15 and VV17 failures and, above all, by the COVID pandemic. The delays, postponing the VEGA-C Maiden Flight to Q1 2022, with a consequent tight schedule of launches in 2022, made the launch period of CSG-2 no longer compatible with the needs of the COSMO Mission. Since Arianespace backlog was already full on Soyuz and Ariane systems in 2021, it was not possible to have a European backup solution compliant with the CSG-2 schedule, thus an alternative solution with the US provider SPACE X has been adopted allowing to keep the CSG-2 launch within the current year. In line with its long-lasting support ensured to the European launch industry, ASI confirmed its trust in Arianespace and VEGA-C capabilities by contracting the launch of the CSG-3 satellite, planned for 2024. Moreover, other future launch opportunities for ASI missions with VEGA-C are under discussion, confirming Arianespace as a key partner for the Agency.

Italian Space Agency (ASI) – September 2021

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Weighing around 2.2 tons (~4900 lb), SkyMed CSG-2 is the second of four synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites designed to “[observe] Earth from space, meter by meter, day and night, in any weather conditions, to help predict landslides and floods, coordinate relief efforts in case of earthquakes or fires, [and] check crisis areas.” Primarily focused on the Mediterranean, the nature of sun-synchronous orbits (SSOs) nevertheless give SkyMed satellites views of most of the Earth’s surface every day.

SkyMed CSG-1 debuted on an Arianespace Soyuz rocket in December 2019, while CSG-2 was originally scheduled to launch sometime in 2021 on one of the first Arianespace Vega-C rockets. However, in July 2019 and November 2020, the Vega rocket Vega-C is based on suffered two launch failures separated by just a single success. Aside from raising major questions about operator Arianespace and Vega manufacturer Avio’s quality assurance, those near-back-to-back failures also delayed Vega’s launch manifest by years. Combined with limited launch cadence and a jam-packed manifest for Arianespace’s other rockets, that meant that Italy would have likely had to wait 1-2 years to launch SkyMed CSG-2 on a European or Italian-made rocket.

Apparently valuing a timely, affordable launch more than the path of least political resistance, the Italian Space Agency chose to remanifest the second SkyMed satellite on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket scheduled to launch no earlier than November 2021. However, based on ASI’s explanation of the move in the quote above, the space agency clearly felt a need to very carefully explain its decision while also repeatedly (and almost fearfully so) signaling its unwavering “trust” in and dedication to “key partner” Arianespace.

That part of the Italian Space Agency’s statement appeared to be a rather distinct reassertion of fealty to Arianespace is made even more unusual by the fact that the Vega rocket SkyMed CSG-2 was meant to fly on is mainly built in Italy by aerospace company Avio – independently owned but a major Arianespace supplier. Further, ASI directing the apologetic portion of its explanation to Arianespace is no less odd given that Arianespace is a private company theoretically independent of space agencies, while moving from Vega to Falcon 9 primarily impacts Avio more than Arianespace and risks raising the ire of Vega development partner ESA. Even further still, ASI itself – not ESA, Avio, or Arianespace – is the source of a majority of Vega development funding over the last decade and a half.

Regardless, at the simplest level, there are clear motivating factors for a space agency primarily funding the development of a certain launch vehicle to want to fly its own payloads on said self-funded rocket. However, after likely taking things a step further and encouraging ESA and the EU to commit to launching as many payloads as possible on its ESA-approved Vega rocket, the Italian Space Agency itself is now discovering the downsides of pushing for political arrangements beneficial to domestic industries while being forced to figure out just how politically viable it is to pursue non-European launch alternatives. There might be a small chance that Italy’s brief taste of freedom to use rockets other than Vega and Ariane 5/6 could encourage other EU members to push back and fight for access to cheaper, more reliable launches. However, it looks far more likely that SkyMed CSG-2 will be a rare outlier for years to come.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla ‘Model Q’ gets bold prediction from Deutsche Bank that investors will love

Tesla’s Model Q could be on the way soon, and a new note from Deutsche Bank thinks it will contribute to Q4 deliveries.

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Credit: @JoeTegtmeyer/X

The Tesla “Model Q” has been in the rumor mill for the company for several years, but a recent note from Wall Street firm Deutsche Bank seems to indicate that it could be on its way in the near future.

This comes as Tesla has been indicating for several quarters that its development of affordable models was “on track” for the first half of 2025. The company did not say it would unveil the vehicles in the first half, but many are anticipating that more cost-friendly models could be revealed to the public soon.

Potential affordable Tesla “Model 2/Model Q” test car spotted anew in Giga Texas

The Deutsche Bank note refers to one of the rumored affordable models as the “Model Q,” but we’ve also seen it referred to as the “Model 2,” amongst other names. Tesla has not officially coined any of its upcoming vehicles as such, but these are more of a universally accepted phrase to identify them, at least for now.

The rumors stem from sentiments regarding Tesla’s 2025 delivery projections, which are tempered as the company seeks to maintain a steady pace compared to 2023 and 2024, when it reported 1.8 million deliveries.

Deutsche Bank’s analysts believe the deliveries could be around 1.58 million, but they state this is a cautious stance that could be impacted by several things, including the potential launch of the Model Q, which they believe will make its way to market in Q4:

“Looking at the rest of the year, we maintain a cautious stance on volume calling for 1.58m vehicle deliveries (-12% YoY) vs. consensus +1.62m, with the timing of Model Q rollout as the key swing factor (we now assume only 25k in Q4). In China, Tesla will introduce the Model Y L this fall (6 inch longer wheel base allowing for larger 3-row seating with six seats).”

Interestingly, the same firm also predicted that the Model Q would launch in the first half of the year based on a note that was released in early December 2024.

Those estimations came from a reported meeting that Deutsche Bank had with Tesla late last year, where it said it aimed to launch the Model Q for less than $30,000 and aimed for it to compete with cars like the Volkswagen ID.3 and BYD Dolphin.

Tesla’s Q2 Earnings Call is slated for this Wednesday and could reveal some additional details about the affordable models.

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Tesla preps to expand Robotaxi geofence once again, answering Waymo

Just days after Waymo responded to them, Tesla is preparing for a potentially massive expansion of the Robotaxi geofence.

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Credit: @AdanGuajardo/X

Tesla is preparing to expand its Robotaxi geofence yet again, just days after Waymo responded to its initial broadening of the area.

Tesla launched its first expansion last week, less than a month after introducing Robotaxi rides in Austin.

The company opted for a very interesting shape for its geofence expansion, which was more of an indication that it could launch more rides in virtually any area of the city due to the new geofence it chose.

Waymo then responded to Tesla shortly after with an expansion of its own. After Tesla’s first expansion of its geofence, it had 42 square miles of Robotaxi-accessible travel region. This was larger than Waymo’s 37 square miles.

However, the Waymo expansion last week brought the company to a substantial 90 square miles of Austin:

Waymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement

Tesla appears to be ready to respond. Drone operator and Gigafactory Texas observer Joe Tegtmeyer spotted Tesla Robotaxi validation vehicles well west of downtown Austin in the area of Marble Falls, Texas.

This would significantly increase Tesla’s square mileage if it could manage to bring its geofence to that size:

The two companies are not directly responding to one another with these expansions, but it appears that there is a significant amount of competition underway, which ultimately benefits the consumers.

Waymo has been operating in Texas since March from a fully public perspective, while Tesla is still slowly expanding its test size for the Robotaxi fleet on a nearly daily basis. Tesla launched Robotaxi rides to a handful of Early Access Program members on June 22.

Tesla is also expanding to other regions of the United States, particularly in Arizona and California. However, the Texas expansion is a priority currently, as it is the only region where Tesla has received approval to operate passenger rides in a driverless setting in the country.

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Elon Musk confirms awesome new features at Tesla Diner Supercharger

More details continue to be revealed about the Tesla Supercharger Diner as its opening seems to be imminent.

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Credit: Brad Goldberg (via Sawyer Merritt on X)

Elon Musk has confirmed a few new features that will be present at the Tesla Diner Supercharger in Los Angeles.

Musk confirmed these two new details as he revealed he recently ate at the Supercharger Diner. We also recently confirmed a few menu items as a soft launch has already occurred, and a public launch date appears to be within reach.

The new features were revealed by Tesla Joy on X. We shared the details, and Musk confirmed that these are, in fact, features of the Diner that Tesla owners will be able to enjoy.

Tesla reveals key detail of Supercharger Diner, but it’s bigger than you think

The Diner is not exclusive to Tesla owners, but these two features do require a Tesla for compatibility purposes.

Order Food from Your Car

As you pull into the Supercharger Diner, you can order any food item you want, including burgers, wings, fries, shakes, cookies, and more, directly from your vehicle.

A prompt will likely appear that will open a menu to the Supercharger Diner, allowing you to order food. An employee will bring the food out, that is, if Tesla decides to continue with a true and traditional 50s diner theme.

We get it, it’s not a groundbreaking feature. It’s still cool, convenient, and another advantage to visit the diner as a Tesla owner.

Movie Screen Audio Will Sync to Your Tesla

There are two massive movie screens that will play various entertainment options during your visit to the Supercharger Diner. There have been movie clips and even SpaceX launch highlights playing during recent drone flyovers at the location on Santa Monica Boulevard.

Instead of having to open your windows to hear the content on the screen, it will instead sync the audio and play directly in your vehicle through your car stereo speakers.

The Supercharger Diner has also appeared on the Tesla app for the first time, and is currently showing 80 stalls at the location:

Although the stalls are not yet active, the culmination of all the details we’ve learned over the past week about the Diner only points to one thing: an imminent grand opening.

Tesla has not yet confirmed a date for the Supercharger Diner’s opening, and Los Angeles building and construction permits also do not state a specific target date for opening.

It seems as if Tesla will reveal the date itself, potentially in the coming week, as it will report earnings on Wednesday, July 23.

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