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SpaceX’s first Starship flight (re)scheduled for next week

SpaceX's fifth full-scale Starship prototype could become the first to take flight just a few days from now. (NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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SpaceX’s fifth full-scale Starship prototype could become the first to take flight just a week or so from now if a Raptor engine test goes as planned early next week.

Known as Starship serial number 5 (SN5), SpaceX teams are currently in the process of completing the installation of Raptor SN27 and preparing the massive steel rocket for its first cryogenic wet dress rehearsal and static fire tests. Delayed from July 8th and 10th, Starship SN5’s first Raptor static fire is now scheduled no earlier than ~10 am CDT (~15:00 UTC) on Monday, July 13th.

If things go well during those nominally back-to-back tests, public road closure filings show that SpaceX wanted to attempt the first full-scale Starship hop just three days later, although the recent two-day delay adds a bit of uncertainty.

SpaceX’s fifth full-scale Starship prototype could become the first to take flight just a few days from now. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

The odds are good that one or both of those test periods will slip or change in the next few days and, in fact, Starship SN5’s static fire test period was delayed two days while this article was in work. SpaceX could run into road bumps that prevent the July 10th 13th wet dress rehearsal (WDR) from smoothly transitioning into a Raptor static fire attempt and any number of additional delays could beset the actual flight test throughout the flow. Along the same lines as Starhopper, currently the only vehicle to have flown under the power of a Raptor engine, Starship’s flight computer could abort the launch at almost any point prior to liftoff, up to and including Raptor ignition.

Like Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy, Starship (and Starhopper) will ingest and interpret hundreds or thousands of channels of telemetry to determine the health of its engines for a second or two after ignition while thrust is ramping. If the Raptor or Merlin engine(s) look healthy, the rocket commands hold-down clamp release and lifts off (or, in the case of Starhopper, uses its own immense weight to prevent liftoff until Raptor is throttled up).

A Raptor engine is static fired in McGregor, Texas. (SpaceX)

Thanks to an upgraded launch mount, SpaceX’s full-scale Starship prototypes have access to built-in hold-down clamps, enabling operations that are at least a bit more similar to those used for Falcon 9 and Heavy launches. Starship’s six hold-down clamps are affixed to the same structure that the ship’s six landing legs are installed on.

Starship’s unique landing legs are pictured here on SN3 in March 2020. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Perhaps the single biggest point of uncertainty with Starship’s first full-scale test flight is its somewhat mysterious landing legs – almost entirely different from Falcon 9’s well-proven four-leg design. The stubby Starship legs stow inside the ship’s engine section, swinging down and out (and potentially telescoping, albeit much less than Falcon 9) come touchdown. Based on photos of the legs, they may also feature rudimentary shock absorption mechanisms, meaning that Starship should be able to tolerate slightly rougher landings. SpaceX has likely tested Starship leg deployment extensively on the ground but beyond that assumption, they remain an unproven mystery.

Regardless, SpaceX is going to be extremely busy over the next 7-10 days with Starlink-9 scheduled to launch NET July 11th, Starship SN5’s static fire NET July 13th, Falcon 9’s ANASIS II launch scheduled NET July 14th, and a potential SN5 hop test attempt as early as July 16th (speculation).

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla rolled out Full Self-Driving version 14.2 yesterday to members of the Early Access Program (EAP). Expectations were high, and Tesla surely delivered.

With the rollout of Tesla FSD v14.2, there were major benchmarks for improvement from the v14.1 suite, which spanned across seven improvements. Our final experience with v14.1 was with v14.1.7, and to be honest, things were good, but it felt like there were a handful of regressions from previous iterations.

While there were improvements in brake stabbing and hesitation, we did experience a few small interventions related to navigation and just overall performance. It was nothing major; there were no critical takeovers that required any major publicity, as they were more or less subjective things that I was not particularly comfortable with. Other drivers might have been more relaxed.

With v14.2 hitting our cars yesterday, there were a handful of things we truly noticed in terms of improvement, most notably the lack of brake stabbing and hesitation, a major complaint with v14.1.x.

However, in a 62-minute drive that was fully recorded, there were a lot of positives, and only one true complaint, which was something we haven’t had issues with in the past.

The Good

Lack of Brake Stabbing and Hesitation

Perhaps the most notable and publicized issue with v14.1.x was the presence of brake stabbing and hesitation. Arriving at intersections was particularly nerve-racking on the previous version simply because of this. At four-way stops, the car would not be assertive enough to take its turn, especially when other vehicles at the same intersection would inch forward or start to move.

This was a major problem.

However, there were no instances of this yesterday on our lengthy drive. It was much more assertive when arriving at these types of scenarios, but was also more patient when FSD knew it was not the car’s turn to proceed.

This improvement was the most noticeable throughout the drive, along with fixes in overall smoothness.

Speed Profiles Seem to Be More Reasonable

There were a handful of FSD v14 users who felt as if the loss of a Max Speed setting was a negative. However, these complaints will, in our opinion, begin to subside, especially as things have seemed to be refined quite nicely with v14.2.

Freeway driving is where this is especially noticeable. If it’s traveling too slow, just switch to a faster profile. If it’s too fast, switch to a slower profile. However, the speeds seem to be much more defined with each Speed Profile, which is something that I really find to be a huge advantage. Previously, you could tell the difference in speeds, but not in driving styles. At times, Standard felt a lot like Hurry. Now, you can clearly tell the difference between the two.

It seems as if Tesla made a goal that drivers should be able to tell which Speed Profile is active if it was not shown on the screen. With v14.1.x, this was not necessarily something that could be done. With v14.2, if someone tested me on which Speed Profile was being used, I’m fairly certain I could pick each one.

Better Overall Operation

I felt, at times, especially with v14.1.7, there were some jerky movements. Nothing that was super alarming, but there were times when things just felt a little more finicky than others.

v14.2 feels much smoother overall, with really great decision-making, lane changes that feel second nature, and a great speed of travel. It was a very comfortable ride.

The Bad

Parking

It feels as if there was a slight regression in parking quality, as both times v14.2 pulled into parking spots, I would have felt compelled to adjust manually if I were staying at my destinations. For the sake of testing, at my first destination, I arrived, allowed the car to park, and then left. At the tail-end of testing, I walked inside the store that FSD v14.2 drove me to, so I had to adjust the parking manually.

This was pretty disappointing. Apart from parking at Superchargers, which is always flawless, parking performance is something that needs some attention. The release notes for v14.2. state that parking spot selection and parking quality will improve with future versions.

However, this was truly my only complaint about v14.2.

You can check out our full 62-minute ride-along below:

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Elon Musk

SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly

The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. 

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. 

SpaceX’s initial comment

As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.

“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X. 

Incident and aftermath

Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.

Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now

The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers. 

The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.

Analysts highlight autonomy progress

During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.

The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. 

Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”

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Street targets diverge on TSLA

While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.

Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements. 

Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs. 

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