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SpaceX is about to have a fleet of Starship rockets

SpaceX has finished stacking the tank section of its fifth full-scale Starship prototype at the same time as Starship SN4 prepares for its first flight a mile down the road. (NASASpaceflight - bocachicagal)

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SpaceX has finished the last major stacking event for the business half of its fifth full-scale Starship prototype, meaning that the company may be a week or less from having a fleet of Starships for the first time ever.

As of now, Starship serial number 5 (SN5) is on track to be completed in under a month, continuing a trend that SpaceX has managed over the entirety of 2020. Beginning in mid-January, SpaceX has completed several nosecone pathfinders, three test tanks, and three full-scale Starship prototypes – soon to be four once SN5 is finished. Once it is, however, SpaceX will be entering a new era of operations – fleet operations.

Up to this point, every full-scale Starship prototype and test tank SpaceX has built – excluding the tank SN2 was turned into in March – has been quickly destroyed over the course of one or two tests. For better or for worse, this has meant that SpaceX’s test and launch pad has always been more or less self-clearing, making way for the next prototype to roll out and begin testing after the scraps of its predecessor were removed. This time around, barring Starship SN4’s imminent demise, SpaceX will now have to deal with multiple completed Starship prototypes at the same time – a tiny taste of things to come.

SpaceX has fully stacked the business half of Starship SN5, making it the fourth full-scale prototype built in as many months. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

For unknown reasons, SpaceX decided to swap out Starship SN4’s lone Raptor engine (likely SN18) after multiple wet dress rehearsals, partial engine tests, and two static fire tests – at least one of which was confirmed a success by CEO Elon Musk. Most recently, SpaceX removed Raptor SN18 to perform a more ambitious cryogenic pressure test, pushing Starship SN4’s propellant tanks all the way to 7.5 bar (~110 psi) at the same time as hydraulic rams simulated the thrust of three Raptor engines at the rocket’s base.

Instead of reinstalling Raptor SN18, SpaceX transported Raptor SN20 to the launch pad and installed it on Starship SN4 on May 10th, less than 24 hours after the prototype passed an orbital-class pressure test.

(NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN4 is pictured here on May 11th and 12th. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

Aside from installing Raptor SN20, SpaceX teams have spent the last few days adding new COPVs (composite overwrapped pressure vessels) and plumbing to Starship SN4’s exterior – purpose largely unknown. While the new hardware is mostly a mystery, it is known that SpaceX is in the process of preparing SN4 and its new Raptor engine for a third wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire test, necessary to ensure that Raptor SN20 is properly installed and functioning as expected.

Assuming that third static fire is successful, SpaceX’s will prepare Starship SN4 for its first flight, a ~150m (500 ft) hop test that will also be the first intentional flight of any full-scale Starship prototype since the program’s birth. For that hop test, SN4 will need some kind of attitude control system (ACS) thrusters to control its rotation and provide fine trajectory tuning to assist the ship’s lone Raptor engine. This is the likeliest explanation for the new hardware being installed on Starship SN4, as the ship does not currently appear to have ACS thrusters installed.

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Starship Troopers

Of course, the first flight of a full-scale Starship prototype will probably be the riskiest test yet for the program and there’s a good chance that SN4 will meet its demise at some point during that flight. Enter Starship SN5.

One possible nosecone for Starship SN5. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
As of May 12th, Starship SN5’s tank section has been fully stacked and requires just one major weld before it can be considered fully assembled. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

As of May 12th, Starship SN5’s final two tank sections were stacked, effectively completing the most important half of the rocket (minus one final circumferential ring weld). SN5’s final outfitting of avionics and plumbing is still pending and will take at least a few days to a week or more, but that work can and has been completed after prototypes are transferred by road to the launch pad. Currently, Starship SN4 is occupying SpaceX’s one and only pad test stand, however, meaning that it wouldn’t make much sense to immediately move SN5 to the launch pad – at least until SN4 is done testing.

SN5 will also need a nose section and, perhaps, flaps installed, meaning that the full ship is likely still at least a week or two away from being finished, but that likely wont stop SpaceX from proof testing the rocket’s tanks if or when SN4 makes space at the launch pad.

More or a pathfinder and mockup, Starship Mk1 will soon make way for SN5, likely to become the first Starship prototype to really reach its full height. (SpaceX)

According to comments made by Elon Musk, SN5 will likely become the first Starship prototype to have three Raptor engines installed and the first to attempt a truly high-altitude flight test if Starship SN4 is met with success in the coming weeks. As absurd as it feels to say, if SN5 completes triple-Raptor testing and a 20 km (~12 mi) flight test without issue, Musk has stated that the next step would be orbital flight tests. Starship SN6’s steel rings, meanwhile, are already being formed and stacked as SN5 nears completion.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad

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Credit: Teslarati

Tesla rolled out Full Self-Driving version 14.2 yesterday to members of the Early Access Program (EAP). Expectations were high, and Tesla surely delivered.

With the rollout of Tesla FSD v14.2, there were major benchmarks for improvement from the v14.1 suite, which spanned across seven improvements. Our final experience with v14.1 was with v14.1.7, and to be honest, things were good, but it felt like there were a handful of regressions from previous iterations.

While there were improvements in brake stabbing and hesitation, we did experience a few small interventions related to navigation and just overall performance. It was nothing major; there were no critical takeovers that required any major publicity, as they were more or less subjective things that I was not particularly comfortable with. Other drivers might have been more relaxed.

With v14.2 hitting our cars yesterday, there were a handful of things we truly noticed in terms of improvement, most notably the lack of brake stabbing and hesitation, a major complaint with v14.1.x.

However, in a 62-minute drive that was fully recorded, there were a lot of positives, and only one true complaint, which was something we haven’t had issues with in the past.

The Good

Lack of Brake Stabbing and Hesitation

Perhaps the most notable and publicized issue with v14.1.x was the presence of brake stabbing and hesitation. Arriving at intersections was particularly nerve-racking on the previous version simply because of this. At four-way stops, the car would not be assertive enough to take its turn, especially when other vehicles at the same intersection would inch forward or start to move.

This was a major problem.

However, there were no instances of this yesterday on our lengthy drive. It was much more assertive when arriving at these types of scenarios, but was also more patient when FSD knew it was not the car’s turn to proceed.

This improvement was the most noticeable throughout the drive, along with fixes in overall smoothness.

Speed Profiles Seem to Be More Reasonable

There were a handful of FSD v14 users who felt as if the loss of a Max Speed setting was a negative. However, these complaints will, in our opinion, begin to subside, especially as things have seemed to be refined quite nicely with v14.2.

Freeway driving is where this is especially noticeable. If it’s traveling too slow, just switch to a faster profile. If it’s too fast, switch to a slower profile. However, the speeds seem to be much more defined with each Speed Profile, which is something that I really find to be a huge advantage. Previously, you could tell the difference in speeds, but not in driving styles. At times, Standard felt a lot like Hurry. Now, you can clearly tell the difference between the two.

It seems as if Tesla made a goal that drivers should be able to tell which Speed Profile is active if it was not shown on the screen. With v14.1.x, this was not necessarily something that could be done. With v14.2, if someone tested me on which Speed Profile was being used, I’m fairly certain I could pick each one.

Better Overall Operation

I felt, at times, especially with v14.1.7, there were some jerky movements. Nothing that was super alarming, but there were times when things just felt a little more finicky than others.

v14.2 feels much smoother overall, with really great decision-making, lane changes that feel second nature, and a great speed of travel. It was a very comfortable ride.

The Bad

Parking

It feels as if there was a slight regression in parking quality, as both times v14.2 pulled into parking spots, I would have felt compelled to adjust manually if I were staying at my destinations. For the sake of testing, at my first destination, I arrived, allowed the car to park, and then left. At the tail-end of testing, I walked inside the store that FSD v14.2 drove me to, so I had to adjust the parking manually.

This was pretty disappointing. Apart from parking at Superchargers, which is always flawless, parking performance is something that needs some attention. The release notes for v14.2. state that parking spot selection and parking quality will improve with future versions.

However, this was truly my only complaint about v14.2.

You can check out our full 62-minute ride-along below:

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Elon Musk

SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly

The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. 

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Credit: SpaceX/X

SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas. 

SpaceX’s initial comment

As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.

“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X. 

Incident and aftermath

Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.

Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now

The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers. 

The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.

Analysts highlight autonomy progress

During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.

The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report. 

Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”

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Street targets diverge on TSLA

While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.

Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements. 

Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs. 

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