SpaceX
SpaceX’s Starship hopper spotted with trio of dual-bell Raptor engines
Following a brief ‘hop’ (via crane) off of a concrete build stand, the aft section of SpaceX’s first full-scale Starship hopper (Starhopper?) revealed that SpaceX technicians have already installed what appear to be three real Raptor engines, presumably the first time the propulsion system has ever been mounted to something that might eventually fly.
For a number of reasons, there is a strong chance that these Raptors are actually just boilerplate placeholders standing in as structural guides for the real deal some months down the line. On the other hand, there are also a number of reasons to assume that these apparent engines are indeed real Raptors.
Star ship hopper might be a bit bigger than we thought and with the crane placements over the nose end of the vehicle. This could suggest, @SpaceX are planning to move the segment elsewhere perhaps to the welding stand? We will have to wait and see. (Austin Barnard📸) #2019🚀 pic.twitter.com/kn8hhUPWCU
— Austin Barnard🚀 (@austinbarnard45) January 1, 2019
Despite an already shocking series of rapid-fire developments in the South Texas Starhopper saga, the abrupt appearance of what appears to be three Raptor engines – mirroring CEO Elon Musk’s recent statement that the test vehicle would sport three Raptors – is by far the most unexpected moment yet for the prototype Starship. Purportedly a full-scale prototype of BFR’s upper stage/spaceship (now known as Starship), Musk indicated over the last two weeks that the hopper has been designed to perform a number of hop tests in which the craft’s three Raptors would power it to a range of (relatively low) altitudes above Boca Chica, Texas.
According to a recent FCC filing related to this test program, SpaceX is currently seeking a license for Starship hop tests that will not exceed 5 km (3.1 mi) in altitude and/or 6 minutes in duration. There is admittedly nothing mentioned about the maximum allowed velocity during those tests, but – much like Blue Origin performs supersonic tests of New Shepard in Cape Horn, Texas – SpaceX will likely seek and be granted permission to break the sound barrier during those hypothetical tests. Nevertheless, a 5km ceiling is a fairly significant cap on the range of performance Starhopper will be able to test – accelerating vertically at 2Gs, Starhopper could travel from sea level to 5km in less than 30 seconds while reaching speeds no higher than Mach 1-1.5.
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- SpaceX technicians and engineers are continuing to work at a breakneck pace on Starhopper. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
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- At this rate, the hopper will likely wind up around 40m (130 feet) tall. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
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- A close examination of these three engine-like protrusions suggests a level of fit and finish far exceeding a boilerplate stand-in. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Combined with the apparent fact that this Starhopper’s fins seem unlikely to ever actuate (i.e. no aerodynamic control surfaces), it’s probable that this ad hoc prototype is only meant to perform a very limited range of hop tests, perhaps as basic as ironing out the kinks of operating a trio of gimballed Raptors and ensuring that they can safely and reliably launch, hover, and land a very large Starship-shaped mass simulator. Falcon 9’s Grasshopper and F9R reusability testbeds performed a very similar task some five years ago, offering SpaceX engineers the opportunity to optimize software and hardware needed to reliably recover real orbital-class rockets after launch. Although Falcon 9 has nine gimballed Merlin 1D engines, SpaceX has long sided with the sole center Merlin as the dedicated landing engine and has only briefly experimented with triple-Merlin landing burns.
Dual-expansion whaaaaat?
According to Musk, Raptor – an advanced liquid methane and oxygen engine with a uniquely efficient propulsion cycle – was expected to produce an impressive ~2000 kN (200 ton, 450K lbf) of thrust in its finished form as of September 2018. However, Musk also mentioned in a late-2017 Reddit AMA that SpaceX engineers were modifying the ship’s design to ensure engine-out reliability during all regimes of flight, landing in particular. To accomplish this feat with an engine as powerful as Raptor, two or three Raptors – capable of producing as much as 600 tons of thrust total – would need to reliably throttle as low as 25%, assuming a landing mass of around 150t. To allow a nearly empty ship (~100t) to still reliably land with three Raptors ignited, the engines would need to be able to throttle to 20% or less.
Known as deep throttling in rocketry, ensuring stable combustion and thrust at 20% (let alone 40%) throttle is an extraordinarily challenging feat, often subjecting engines to forces that can literally tear non-optimized hardware apart. To achieve such a deep throttle capability without excessively disrupting the engine’s design, SpaceX appears to have potentially sided with less efficient but extremely simple alternative, known as a dual-bell (or dual-expansion) rocket nozzle. A 1999 Rocketdyne paper concisely explained the primary draws of such a nozzle:
“The [altitude-compensating] dual-bell nozzle offers a unique combination of performance, simplicity, low weight, and ease of cooling” – Horn & Fisher, 1999
Exactly
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) December 27, 2018
Given that SpaceX has decided to delay the introduction and certification of a vacuum-optimized Raptor engine, choosing to instead use the same Raptor on both BFR stages, something like a dual-bell nozzle would be one of the best possible ways for the company to retain some of the efficiency benefits of a vacuum engine while also drastically improving design simplicity, ease of manufacturing, and cutting development time. Aside from offering efficiency gains by way of altitude compensation, a dual-bell nozzle also happens to enable a given engine to operate a much wider throttle range by mitigating problems with flow separation and instability.
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- A gif of Raptor throttling over the course of a 90+ second static-fire test in McGregor, Texas. (SpaceX)
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- Note that Merlin 1D and prior Raptor prototypes both feature traditional single nozzles. (Pauline Acalin)
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- An overview of dual-bell and deflection nozzles. Raptor appears to have now graduated to the former style. (Johan Steelant, 2011)
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- Starhopper’s Raptors feature a very distinct seam and second curve, indicative of a dual-bell nozzle. (NASASpaceflight /u/bocachicagal)
For Starhopper and Starship, both aspects are an undeniable net-gain and it’s entirely possible that these dual-bell nozzles – if successfully demonstrated – could find their way onto Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy to further boost their booster performance and efficiency.
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Elon Musk
Elon Musk just set a condition that could end Falcon 9 as we know it
Elon Musk says SpaceX will finally retire Falcon 9 once Starship flies reliably every week.
Elon Musk gave the clearest timeline yet for retiring Falcon 9, SpaceX’s workhorse rocket.
The comment came in a reply on X, where Musk wrote that “once Starship is flying reliably several times per week, it makes sense to shift super scarce SpaceX engineering and production resources to Starship to get launch rate to several times per day, which means winding down Falcon.” He was responding to physicist Casey Handmer, who noted that NASA is reportedly uneasy about SpaceX phasing out Falcon after building what Handmer called the most successful launcher ever, with the fleet nearing 1,000 total launches.
Now @SciGuySpace reports NASA is in a tizzy because after running the most successful launcher ever for more than a decade and nearing 1000 launches, @SpaceX is planning to retire Falcon in favor of Starship in a few years.
Sorry, NASA, you’ve had 15 years to burn down the… https://t.co/uCNoMwK0v9
— Casey Handmer (@CJHandmer) August 22, 2026
Falcon 9 is still SpaceX’s busiest vehicle by far. The company is on pace for roughly 140 to 145 Falcon flights this year, following 165 in 2025, president Gwynne Shotwell told Time earlier in 2026. She has already said Falcon flights would “tail off” as Starship comes online, while reports indicate that SpaceX has stopped booking new Falcon 9 launches past 2028 and halted production of some expendable Falcon hardware, according to Bloomberg.
It’s worth noting that Musk’s post is a condition, and not a countdown on when Falcon will retire. Starship has not yet flown weekly, let alone daily. Its most recent flight in July ended with a soft splashdown in the Indian Ocean, a milestone Musk pointed to earlier this month when he said the vehicle’s heat shield problem was effectively solved. SpaceX towed that ship to Christmas Island for inspection, and the next flight, Flight 14, is aimed at putting Starship into orbit for the first time. A tower catch attempt for the upper stage has been pushed back to what Musk has called “a few months” away.
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The gap between Falcon’s role today and Starship’s promised role tomorrow matters most to NASA. Falcon and its Dragon capsule remain the only way the agency rotates astronauts to and from the International Space Station, and Starship is not certified to carry NASA crews. Musk’s post did not address how that handoff would work if Falcon winds down before a crew-rated Starship variant exists. The timing lines up with Musk’s other recent Starship comments. Two days before the Falcon post, he told a different X user that SpaceX is aiming for more than 30 Starship launches a day by 2030, or roughly 10,000 a year, a figure tied to the Trump administration’s new push for higher national launch cadence. Falcon, which took over a decade to reach its first 100 launches, was never built to approach that kind of volume.
For now, Falcon 9 keeps flying at a near-record pace while Starship works to prove it can do the job Musk has already picked out for it.
Elon Musk put a number on where he thinks SpaceX’s Starship program is headed by 2030, replying on X a day after President Trump signed a memo pushing the country toward 1,000 space launches and reentries a year.
The exchange started when Aaron Burnett, co-founder of propulsion startup Mach 33, posted that “1,000 launches/reentries is the goal,” quoting White House science adviser Michael Kratsios on the newly signed National Space Transportation Policy. Burnett noted that the FAA’s own bull-case forecast reached only 385 annual launches by 2030, while his firm’s conservative model already put SpaceX alone near 940. Musk responded, “We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized. Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!”
We’re aiming to reach 30+ Starship launches/day in 2030, which is ~10k annualized.
Still tiny numbers compared to airplane flights!
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 21, 2026
That figure is specific to Starship, the rocket SpaceX is still developing for orbital and lunar missions, not the Falcon 9 fleet that carries most of the company’s current launch volume. Starship has flown twice this year, a slower pace than the four and five flights SpaceX managed in 2024 and 2025. Getting from two flights a year to 30 a day is the scale of jump the new federal policy is meant to clear regulatory room for.
Trump’s memo, signed Thursday, directs agencies to identify new launch and reentry sites on federal land, including a new reentry site within 90 days, and to speed up the permitting and environmental reviews that have long slowed cadence growth. It also sets a goal of returning American astronauts to the moon by 2028 and placing initial lunar base elements by 2030, tying the launch buildout directly to NASA’s Artemis program.
SpaceX has already been pushing the FAA toward higher numbers on its own. The agency approved up to 44 annual Starship launches from Kennedy Space Center in February, on top of a 2024 review that raised the cap at Starbase in Texas to 25 a year. Those approvals cover a fraction of the 10,000 annual flights Musk is now describing, which shows how far current permitting still sits from the administration’s stated target.
The near-term test of all this is more modest. SpaceX cleared a full-duration, six-engine static fire on its next Starship vehicle this week, the last major hardware checkpoint before Flight 14, which is targeting no earlier than August 28 and is expected to attempt the vehicle’s first full orbital mission. Musk said last week that a tower catch of the upper stage is still probably months away, a reminder that the immediate roadmap remains far more incremental than the daily launch numbers he just posted.
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk announced today that the company will likely attempt to catch the Starship upper stage with its launch tower arms “in a few months.”
In a post on X, Musk wrote, “Looks like we will probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months. If there had been a tower out to sea where we practiced landing the ship, it would have been caught.” He added that the first reflight of a Starship vehicle is expected by the end of 2026 or early 2027, describing it as “a fork in the road of history for consciousness reaching the stars.”
Looks like we will probably catch the ship with the tower in a few months. If there had been a tower out to sea where we practiced landing the ship, it would have been caught.
First reflight of the ship will be either end of this year or early next. That will be a fork in the… https://t.co/O5g9pqrzyo
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 20, 2026
Musk’s prediction comes amid ongoing progress toward full reusability of the Starship system, a two-stage rocket designed for rapid turnaround and dramatically lower launch costs. Catching the upper stage, known simply as “ship,” with the Mechazilla tower’s mechanical arms would mark a major milestone. It would allow both stages to return directly to the launch site for quick refurbishment and reuse, eliminating the need for ocean recovery.
Musk has previously signaled plans for a ship catch. In July, shortly after SpaceX’s wildly successful Starship 13 mission, he stated that the company would attempt to catch the ship with the tower on the next flight unless problems emerged in the mission data review. Earlier comments also outline conditions such as successful soft ocean landings before attempting a land recovery to minimize risk.
SpaceX has solved Starship’s biggest challenge, Elon Musk says
The latest update from Musk adjusts this timeline to a few months, reflecting the iterative nature of the test campaign.
SpaceX has already demonstrated the tower catch technique successfully with the Super Heavy booster on a couple of occasions. The first successful booster catch occurred during Flight 5 in October 2024, when the massive first stage returned to the Starbase pad in Texas and was plucked from the air by the tower arms.
Additional catches followed on later flights, including Flight 7, proving the concept for the booster and building confidence in the system as a whole.
Achieving a similar catch for the upper stage would represent a significant step forward. The ship returns from much higher speeds and greater heat loads after orbital or near-orbital flight. Success would advance SpaceX’s goal of full and rapid reusability, potentially reducing the cost of access to orbit by a factor of 100 or more and supporting ambitions for frequent satellite deployments, lunar missions, and eventual Mars flights.
Musk has long emphasized that true reusability, refueling rather than discarding hardware, is essential for making humanity a multi-planetary species.
As SpaceX continues refining Starship through successive test flights, the coming months will test whether the ambitious catch timeline can be met. The combination of prior booster successes and improving ship landing precision suggests the company is steadily closing in on this historic capability.
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Elon Musk just set a condition that could end Falcon 9 as we know it
