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SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch “highly likely” in November, says Elon Musk
CEO Elon Musk says that it’s “highly likely” SpaceX will be ready to attempt its first orbital Starship launch in November 2022, and possibly as early as late October. But many major hurdles remain.
Adding to a welcome burst of insight into SpaceX’s fully-reusable Starship rocket program, Musk took to Twitter on September 21st to provide a bit more specific insight into the company’s next steps towards a crucial orbital launch debut. On September 19th, the CEO revealed that SpaceX would roll the Starship booster (B7) currently assigned to that debut back to the factory for mysterious “robustness upgrades” – an unexpected move right after a seemingly successful and record-breaking static fire test.
Two days later, Musk has indicated that those upgrades might involve fortifying Super Heavy Booster 7’s thrust section to ensure it can survive Raptor engine failures. With 33 Raptor V2 engines powering it and plenty of evidence that those Raptors are far from perfect reliability, the concern is understandable, even if the response is a bit different than SpaceX’s norm.
Prior to the start of preparations for Starship’s orbital launch debut, SpaceX sped through Starship development like it wanted to destroy as many rockets as possible – which, to some extent, it did. Rather than spend 6-12 months fiddling with the same few prototypes without a single launch attempt, SpaceX churned out Starships and test articles and aggressively tested them. A few times, SpaceX pushed a little too hard and made avoidable mistakes, but most of the failures produced large amounts of data that was then used to improve future vehicles.
The holy grail of that project was high-altitude Starship flight testing, which saw SpaceX finish, test, and launch a new Starship five times in six months, and culminated in the first fully successful high-altitude Starship launch and landing in May 2021.
In comparison, SpaceX’s orbital flight test preparations have been almost unrecognizable. While a good amount of progress has been made in the 16 months since SN15’s successful launch and landing, it’s clear that SpaceX has decided against taking significant risks. After spending more than six months slowly finishing and testing Super Heavy Booster 4 and Starship 20, the first orbital-class pair, SpaceX never even attempted a single Booster 4 static fire and unceremoniously retired both prototypes without attempting to fly either.
Without info from Musk or SpaceX, we may never know why SpaceX stood down B4 and S20, or why the company appears to have revised its development approach to be a bit more conservative after clearly demonstrating the efficacy of moving fast and taking big risks. It’s possible that winning a $3 billion contract that places Starship front and center in NASA’s attempt to return astronauts to the Moon has encouraged a more careful approach. SpaceX won that contract in April 2021.
Even in its more cautious third phase, Starship development is still extraordinarily hardware-rich, moving quickly, and uncovering many problems on the ground in lieu of learning from flight tests. But that doesn’t change the fact that the third phase of Starship development (H2 2021 – today) is proceeding more carefully than the first (Q4 2018 to Q4 2019) and second (Q1 2020 – Q2 2021) phases.
Nonetheless, SpaceX appears to finally be getting closer to Starship’s first orbital launch. According to Musk, the company could be ready for the first launch attempt as early as late October, but a November attempt is “highly likely.” He believes that SpaceX will have two pairs of orbital-class Starships and Super Heavy boosters (B7/S24; B8/S25) “ready for orbital flight by then,” potentially enabling a rapid return to flight after the first attempt. Musk is also excited about Super Heavy Booster 9, which has “many design changes” and a thrust section that will fully isolate all 33 Raptors from each other – crucial for preventing the failure of one engine from damaging others.
Meanwhile, as Musk forecasted, Super Heavy Booster 8 rolled to the launch pad on September 19th and will likely be proof tested in the near future while Booster 7 is upgraded back at the factory.
Encouraging as that may be, history has shown that reality – particularly when it involves Starship’s orbital launch debut – can be quite a bit different than the pictures Elon Musk paints. In September 2021, for example, Musk predicted that SpaceX would conduct the first Super Heavy static fire at Starbase’s orbital launch pad later that month. In reality, that crucial test occurred 11 months later (August 9th, 2022) and used an entirely different booster.
This is to say that significant progress has been made in the last few months, but SpaceX has a huge amount of work left, almost all of which lies in uncharted terrain. Starship 24, which completed its first six-engine static fire earlier this month, is currently undergoing strange modifications that seem to imply that the upper stage is not living up to SpaceX’s expectations. It’s unclear if additional testing will be required.
Super Heavy B7 is headed back to the factory for additional work after a successful seven-Raptor static fire. Once it returns to the pad, the sequencing isn’t clear, but SpaceX will need to complete the first full Super Heavy wet dress rehearsal (fully loading the booster with thousands of tons of flammable propellant) and the first full 33-Raptor static fire. It remains to be seen if SpaceX will continue its conservative approach (i.e. testing one, three, and seven engines over six weeks) or jump straight from seven- to 33-engine testing.
It’s also unclear where Ship 24 fits into that picture. SpaceX will eventually need to (or should) conduct a full wet dress rehearsal of the fully stacked Starship and may even want to attempt a 33-engine static fire with that fully-fueled two-stage vehicle to truly test the rocket under the same conditions it will launch under. Will SpaceX fully stack B7 and S24 as soon as the booster returns to the pad, risking a potentially flightworthy Starship during the riskiest Super Heavy tests yet?
SpaceX’s last year of activity suggests that the company will choose caution and conduct wet dress rehearsals and 33-engine static fires before and after stacking, potentially doubling the amount of testing required. One or several more tests will also be required if SpaceX decides to gradually build up to 33 engines, which is the approach that all Booster 7 activity to date suggests SpaceX will take.
Either way, it will be a major challenge for SpaceX to have a fully-stacked Starship ready to launch by the end of November. If any significant problems arise during any of the several unprecedented tests described above, Musk’s predicted schedule will likely become impossible. As a wildcard, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has yet to issue SpaceX a license or experimental permit for orbital Starship launches, either of which is contingent upon dozens of “mitigations.”
This isn’t to say that it’s impossible for an orbital Starship launch attempt to occur in November. But factoring in the many issues Booster 7 and Ship 24 have experienced during much simpler tests, it’s becoming increasingly implausible that SpaceX will be ready to launch the pair before the end of 2022. Stay tuned.
Elon Musk
Tesla reveals major info about the Semi as it heads toward ‘mass production’
Some information, like trim levels and their specs were not revealed by Tesla, but now that the Semi is headed toward mass production this year, the company finally revealed those specifics.
Tesla has revealed some major information about the all-electric Semi as it heads toward “mass production,” according to CEO Elon Musk.
The Semi has been working toward a wider production phase after several years of development, pilot programs, and the construction of a dedicated production facility that is specifically catered to the manufacturing of the vehicle.
However, some information, like trim levels and their specs were not revealed by Tesla, but now that the Semi is headed toward mass production this year, the company finally revealed those specifics.
Tesla Semi undergoes major redesign as dedicated factory preps for deliveries
Tesla plans to build a Standard Range and Long Range Trim level of the Semi, and while the range is noted in the company’s newly-released spec list, there is no indication of what battery size will be equipped by them. However, there is a notable weight difference between the two of roughly 3,000 lbs, and the Long Range configuration has a lightning-fast peak charging speed of 1.2 MW.
This information is not available for the Standard Range quite yet.
The spec list is as follows:
- Standard Range:
- 325 miles of range (at 82,000 lbs gross combination weight
- Curb Weight: <20,000
- Energy Consumption: 1.7 kWh per mile
- Powertrain: 3 independent motors on rear axles
- Charging: Up to 60% of range in 30 minutes
- Charge Type: MCS 3.2
- Drive Power: Up to 800 kW
- ePTO (Electric Power Take Off): Up to 25 kW
- Long Range:
- Range: 500 miles (at 82,000 lbs gross combination weight)
- Curb Weight: 23,000 lbs
- Energy Consumption: 1.7 kWh per mile
- Powertrain: 3 independent motors on rear axles
- Charging: Up to 60% of range in 30 minutes
- Charge Type: MCS 3.2
- Peak charging speed: 1.2MW (1,200kW)
- Drive Power: Up to 800 kW
- ePTO (Electric Power Take Off): Up to 25 kW
It is important to keep in mind that the Semi is currently spec’d for local runs, and Tesla has not yet released or developed a sleeper cabin that would be more suitable for longer trips, cross-country hauls, and overnight travel.
Tesla Semi sleeper section and large side storage teased in new video
Instead, the vehicle will be initially used for regional deliveries, as it has in the pilot programs for Pepsi Co. and Frito-Lay for the past several years.
It will enter mass production this year, Musk confirmed on X over the weekend.
Now that the company’s dedicated Semi production facility in Sparks, Nevada, is standing, the timeline seems much more realistic as the vehicle has had its mass manufacturing date adjusted on several occasions.
Ferrari, the Italian supercar maker, has revealed the name, interior, and interface design of its first-ever electric vehicle project, the Luce, initiating a new chapter in the rich history of the company’s automotive books.
This is the first time Ferrari has revealed such intimate details regarding its introductory EV offering, which has been in the realm of possibility for several years.
As more companies continue to take on EV projects, and some recede from them, supercar companies like Ferrari and Lamborghini are preparing to offer electric powertrains, offering super-fast performance and a new era of speed and acceleration.
Luce – a New Chapter in Ferrari
The company said that the name Luce is “more than a name. It is a vision.” Instead of looking at its first EV offering as a means to enter a new era of design, engineering, and imagination. The company did not want to compromise any of its reputation, high standards, or performance with this new project. It sees it as simply a page turn, and not the closing of a book:
“This new naming strategy reflects how the Ferrari Luce marks a significant addition to the Prancing Horse’s line-up, embodying the seamless expression of tradition and innovation. With its cutting-edge technology, unique design, and best-in-class driving thrills, it unites Ferrari’s racing heritage, the timeless spirit of its sports cars, and the evolving reality of contemporary lifestyles. It testifies to Ferrari’s determination to go beyond expectations: to imagine the future, and to dare. Because leading means illuminating the path ahead – and Luce embodies that mindset.”
Ferrari Luce Design
Ferrari collaborated with LoveFrom, a creative collective founded by Sir Jony Ive and Marc Newson. The pair has been working with Ferrari for five years on the Luce design; everything from materials, ergonomics, interface, and user experience has been designed by the two entities.
The big focus with the interior was to offer “a first, tangible insight into the design philosophy…where innovation meets craftsmanship and cutting-edge design. The team focused on perfecting and refining every solution to its purest form — not to reinvent what already works, but to create a new, carefully considered expression of Ferrari.”
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The company also said:
“Ultimately, the design of the Ferrari Luce’s interior is a synthesis of meticulous craftsmanship, respect for tradition, and thoughtful innovation. It offers a new choice for Ferrari enthusiasts – one that honours the past while embracing the future, and exemplifies the brand’s enduring commitment to quality, performance, and cultural significance.”
The appearance of the elements that make up the interior are both an ode to past designs, like the steering wheel, which is a reinterpretation of the iconic 1950s and 1960s wooden three-spoke Nardi wheel, and fresh, new designs, which aim to show the innovation Ferrari is adopting with this new project.
Interior Highlights
Steering Wheel
The Ferrari Luce is a shout-out to the Nardi wheel from the 1950s and 60s. It is constructed of 100% recycled aluminum, and the alloy was developed specifically for the vehicle to “ensure mechanical resistance and a superb surface quality for the anodisation process.”
It weighs 400 grams less than a standard Ferrari steering wheel:
Credit: Ferrari
It features two analogue control modules, ensuring both functionality and clarity, Ferrari said. The carmaker drew inspiration from Formula One single-seaters, and every button has been developed to provide “the most harmonious combination of mechanical and acoustic feedback based on more than 20 evaluation tests with Ferrari test drivers.”
Instrument Cluster and Displays
There are three displays in the Luce — a driver binnacle, control panel, and rear control panel, which have all been “meticulously designed for clarity and purpose.”
The binnacle moves with the steering wheel and is optimized for the driver’s view of the instrumentation and supporting driver performance.
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- Credit: Ferrari
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- Credit: Ferrari
Displays are crafted by Samsung and were specifically designed for the car, using a “world first – three large cutouts strategically reveal the information generated by a second display behind the top panel, creating a fascinating visual depth that captures the eye.”
Samsung Display engineers created an ultra-light, ultra-thin OLED panel for the vehicle.
Credit: Ferrari
Pricing is still what remains a mystery within the Luce project. Past reports have speculated that the price could be at least €500,000, or $535,000.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk pivots SpaceX plans to Moon base before Mars
The shift, Musk explained, is driven by launch cadence and the urgency of securing humanity’s long-term survival beyond Earth, among others.
Elon Musk has clarified that SpaceX is prioritizing the Moon over Mars as the fastest path to establishing a self-growing off-world civilization.
The shift, Musk explained, is driven by launch cadence and the urgency of securing humanity’s long-term survival beyond Earth, among others.
Why the Moon is now SpaceX’s priority
In a series of posts on X, Elon Musk stated that SpaceX is focusing on building a self-growing city on the Moon because it can be achieved significantly faster than a comparable settlement on Mars. As per Musk, a Moon city could possibly be completed in under 10 years, while a similar settlement on Mars would likely require more than 20.
“For those unaware, SpaceX has already shifted focus to building a self-growing city on the Moon, as we can potentially achieve that in less than 10 years, whereas Mars would take 20+ years. The mission of SpaceX remains the same: extend consciousness and life as we know it to the stars,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
Musk highlighted that launch windows to Mars only open roughly every 26 months, with a six-month transit time, whereas missions to the Moon can launch approximately every 10 days and arrive in about two days. That difference, Musk stated, allows SpaceX to iterate far more rapidly on infrastructure, logistics, and survival systems.
“The critical path to a self-growing Moon city is faster,” Musk noted in a follow-up post.
Mars still matters, but runs in parallel
Despite the pivot to the Moon, Musk stressed that SpaceX has not abandoned Mars. Instead, Mars development is expected to begin in about five to seven years and proceed alongside the company’s lunar efforts.
Musk explained that SpaceX would continue launching directly from Earth to Mars when possible, rather than routing missions through the Moon, citing limited fuel availability on the lunar surface. The Moon’s role, he stated, is not as a staging point for Mars, but as the fastest achievable location for a self-sustaining off-world civilization.
“The Moon would establish a foothold beyond Earth quickly, to protect life against risk of a natural or manmade disaster on Earth,” Musk wrote.
Tesla reveals major info about the Semi as it heads toward ‘mass production’
Ferrari Luce EV: Italian supercar maker reveals interior and interface design
