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SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch “highly likely” in November, says Elon Musk

Ship 24 and Booster 7 have a ways to go but SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is confident they'll be ready for orbit later this year. (SpaceX)

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CEO Elon Musk says that it’s “highly likely” SpaceX will be ready to attempt its first orbital Starship launch in November 2022, and possibly as early as late October. But many major hurdles remain.

Adding to a welcome burst of insight into SpaceX’s fully-reusable Starship rocket program, Musk took to Twitter on September 21st to provide a bit more specific insight into the company’s next steps towards a crucial orbital launch debut. On September 19th, the CEO revealed that SpaceX would roll the Starship booster (B7) currently assigned to that debut back to the factory for mysterious “robustness upgrades” – an unexpected move right after a seemingly successful and record-breaking static fire test.

Two days later, Musk has indicated that those upgrades might involve fortifying Super Heavy Booster 7’s thrust section to ensure it can survive Raptor engine failures. With 33 Raptor V2 engines powering it and plenty of evidence that those Raptors are far from perfect reliability, the concern is understandable, even if the response is a bit different than SpaceX’s norm.

Prior to the start of preparations for Starship’s orbital launch debut, SpaceX sped through Starship development like it wanted to destroy as many rockets as possible – which, to some extent, it did. Rather than spend 6-12 months fiddling with the same few prototypes without a single launch attempt, SpaceX churned out Starships and test articles and aggressively tested them. A few times, SpaceX pushed a little too hard and made avoidable mistakes, but most of the failures produced large amounts of data that was then used to improve future vehicles.

The holy grail of that project was high-altitude Starship flight testing, which saw SpaceX finish, test, and launch a new Starship five times in six months, and culminated in the first fully successful high-altitude Starship launch and landing in May 2021.

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In comparison, SpaceX’s orbital flight test preparations have been almost unrecognizable. While a good amount of progress has been made in the 16 months since SN15’s successful launch and landing, it’s clear that SpaceX has decided against taking significant risks. After spending more than six months slowly finishing and testing Super Heavy Booster 4 and Starship 20, the first orbital-class pair, SpaceX never even attempted a single Booster 4 static fire and unceremoniously retired both prototypes without attempting to fly either.

Without info from Musk or SpaceX, we may never know why SpaceX stood down B4 and S20, or why the company appears to have revised its development approach to be a bit more conservative after clearly demonstrating the efficacy of moving fast and taking big risks. It’s possible that winning a $3 billion contract that places Starship front and center in NASA’s attempt to return astronauts to the Moon has encouraged a more careful approach. SpaceX won that contract in April 2021.

Even in its more cautious third phase, Starship development is still extraordinarily hardware-rich, moving quickly, and uncovering many problems on the ground in lieu of learning from flight tests. But that doesn’t change the fact that the third phase of Starship development (H2 2021 – today) is proceeding more carefully than the first (Q4 2018 to Q4 2019) and second (Q1 2020 – Q2 2021) phases.

Nonetheless, SpaceX appears to finally be getting closer to Starship’s first orbital launch. According to Musk, the company could be ready for the first launch attempt as early as late October, but a November attempt is “highly likely.” He believes that SpaceX will have two pairs of orbital-class Starships and Super Heavy boosters (B7/S24; B8/S25) “ready for orbital flight by then,” potentially enabling a rapid return to flight after the first attempt. Musk is also excited about Super Heavy Booster 9, which has “many design changes” and a thrust section that will fully isolate all 33 Raptors from each other – crucial for preventing the failure of one engine from damaging others.

Meanwhile, as Musk forecasted, Super Heavy Booster 8 rolled to the launch pad on September 19th and will likely be proof tested in the near future while Booster 7 is upgraded back at the factory.

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Encouraging as that may be, history has shown that reality – particularly when it involves Starship’s orbital launch debut – can be quite a bit different than the pictures Elon Musk paints. In September 2021, for example, Musk predicted that SpaceX would conduct the first Super Heavy static fire at Starbase’s orbital launch pad later that month. In reality, that crucial test occurred 11 months later (August 9th, 2022) and used an entirely different booster.

This is to say that significant progress has been made in the last few months, but SpaceX has a huge amount of work left, almost all of which lies in uncharted terrain. Starship 24, which completed its first six-engine static fire earlier this month, is currently undergoing strange modifications that seem to imply that the upper stage is not living up to SpaceX’s expectations. It’s unclear if additional testing will be required.

Super Heavy B7 is headed back to the factory for additional work after a successful seven-Raptor static fire. Once it returns to the pad, the sequencing isn’t clear, but SpaceX will need to complete the first full Super Heavy wet dress rehearsal (fully loading the booster with thousands of tons of flammable propellant) and the first full 33-Raptor static fire. It remains to be seen if SpaceX will continue its conservative approach (i.e. testing one, three, and seven engines over six weeks) or jump straight from seven- to 33-engine testing.

It’s also unclear where Ship 24 fits into that picture. SpaceX will eventually need to (or should) conduct a full wet dress rehearsal of the fully stacked Starship and may even want to attempt a 33-engine static fire with that fully-fueled two-stage vehicle to truly test the rocket under the same conditions it will launch under. Will SpaceX fully stack B7 and S24 as soon as the booster returns to the pad, risking a potentially flightworthy Starship during the riskiest Super Heavy tests yet?

Booster 7 set a new Starbase record when it ignited 7 Raptors at once on September 19th. (SpaceX)

SpaceX’s last year of activity suggests that the company will choose caution and conduct wet dress rehearsals and 33-engine static fires before and after stacking, potentially doubling the amount of testing required. One or several more tests will also be required if SpaceX decides to gradually build up to 33 engines, which is the approach that all Booster 7 activity to date suggests SpaceX will take.

Either way, it will be a major challenge for SpaceX to have a fully-stacked Starship ready to launch by the end of November. If any significant problems arise during any of the several unprecedented tests described above, Musk’s predicted schedule will likely become impossible. As a wildcard, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has yet to issue SpaceX a license or experimental permit for orbital Starship launches, either of which is contingent upon dozens of “mitigations.”

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This isn’t to say that it’s impossible for an orbital Starship launch attempt to occur in November. But factoring in the many issues Booster 7 and Ship 24 have experienced during much simpler tests, it’s becoming increasingly implausible that SpaceX will be ready to launch the pair before the end of 2022. Stay tuned.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla watchers spot mysterious castings at Fremont Factory

The castings seem to be quite new, as they do not seem to match any of the castings that are currently being used for the Model Y.

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Credit: @metgodinwilderness7130/YouTube

A recent flyover of the Fremont Factory has triggered speculations about Tesla’s ongoing initiatives that are yet to be unveiled publicly. This was hinted at by the sighting of some apparent vehicle castings around the factory that have never really been observed before.

A Fremont Factory flyover

In a recent update, drone operator Met God in Wilderness, who has been chronicling the progress and developments of the Fremont Factory for years, shared some footage from his August 14, 2025 flyover. Based on the video, the Fremont Factory seemed very much alive. Vehicles were being pumped out of the factory, and a rather interestingly covered car could be seen going around the test track.

What is quite fascinating about the footage from the Fremont Factory is the fact that the vehicles that were moving from the production line to the outbound logistics lot are not driven manually anymore. As per Tesla in previous updates, vehicles produced at the Fremont Factory navigate to the outbound logistics lot on their own using Unsupervised FSD

Mysterious castings

Perhaps most interestingly, the drone operator also managed to capture some footage of some castings that were being gathered just outside one of the facility’s sprung structures. These castings seem to be quite new, as they do not seem to match any of the castings that are currently being used for the Model Y. This has brought speculations suggesting that the new components, which seem smaller than standard Model Y megacasts, may be for a different, perhaps more compact, vehicle. 

As per Tesla in its second quarter earnings call, the company actually started the initial production of more affordable models sometime in June. These vehicles, as per Elon Musk, will be made available for consumers in the fourth quarter. “Given that we started in North America and that our goal is to maximize production with higher rates by the end of Q3, we’re going to keep pushing hard on our current models to avoid complexity… We’ll be running with the more affordable models available for everyone in Q4,” Musk said.

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Watch the recent drone footage of the Fremont Factory in the video below.

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Investor's Corner

Shareholder group urges Nasdaq probe into Elon Musk’s Tesla 2025 CEO Interim Award

The SOC Investment Group represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members, many of whom hold shares in TSLA.

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Credit: xAI/X

An investment group is urging Nasdaq to investigate Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) over its recent $29 billion equity award for CEO Elon Musk. 

The SOC Investment Group, which represents pension funds tied to more than two million union members—many of whom hold shares in TSLA—sent a letter to the exchange citing “serious concerns” that the package sidestepped shareholder approval and violated compensation rules.

Concerns over Tesla’s 2025 CEO Interim Award

In its August 19 letter to Nasdaq enforcement chief Erik Wittman, SOC alleged that Tesla’s board improperly granted Musk a “2025 CEO Interim Award” under the company’s 2019 Equity Incentive Plan. That plan, the group noted, explicitly excluded Musk when it was approved by shareholders. SOC argued that the new equity grant effectively expanded the plan to cover Musk, a material change that should have required a shareholder vote under Nasdaq rules.

The $29 billion package was designed to replace Musk’s overturned $56 billion award from 2018, which the Delaware Chancery Court struck down, prompting Tesla to file an appeal to the Delaware Supreme Court. The interim award contains restrictions: Musk must remain in a leadership role until August 2027, and vested shares cannot be sold until 2030, as per a Yahoo Finance report.

Even so, critics such as SOC have argued that the plan does not have of performance targets, calling it a “fog-the-mirror” award. This means that “If you’re around and have enough breath left in you to fog the mirror, you get them,” stated Brian Dunn, the director of the Institute for Comprehension Studies at Cornell University.

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SOC’s Tesla concerns beyond Elon Musk

SOC’s concerns extend beyond the mechanics of Musk’s pay. The group has long questioned the independence of Tesla’s board, opposing the reelection of directors such as Kimbal Musk and James Murdoch. It has also urged regulators to review Tesla’s governance practices, including past proposals to shrink the board. 

SOC has also joined initiatives calling for Tesla to adopt comprehensive labor rights policies, including noninterference with worker organizing and compliance with global labor standards. The investment group has also been involved in webinars and resolutions highlighting the risks related to Tesla’s approach to unions, as well as labor issues across several countries.

Tesla has not yet publicly responded to SOC’s latest letter, nor to requests for comment.

The SOC’s letter can be viewed below.

Nasdaq+Letter Tsla Socig Final by Simon Alvarez

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Tesla Model Y L has two distinct features for luxurious comfort

This is not to say the other interior additions are not factors in the Model Y becoming a more luxurious and premium vehicle, but the two mentioned in this article are particularly pertinent in that conversation.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s new Model Y L has two distinct features that are geared toward giving occupants a taste of luxury with guaranteed comfort.

These two features should definitely be part of the company’s future lineup, and they could prove to be massive upgrades to the Model Y’s interior, which is certainly premium but is missing some things that truly tailor to a “luxury” feel of an automobile.

This is not to say the other interior additions are not factors in the Model Y becoming a more luxurious and premium vehicle, but the two mentioned in this article are particularly pertinent in that conversation.

Tesla Model Y L might not come to the U.S., and it’s a missed opportunity

Power-Adjustable Thigh Supports

In the front seats of the Model Y L, there are power-adjustable thigh supports that will enable some additional comfort on the legs:

Most might think that these thigh supports are simply a feature that makes the ride more comfortable, which is true. However, they have benefits for the ride and after you exit the car.

Providing proper lift on the legs and thighs can be beneficial for people with back problems or posture issues. The lower back takes an increased amount of stress during long car rides, especially as the legs are fixed in the chosen seating position.

Tesla Model Y L officially launched: price, features, and more

Adding some support to the thighs can help reduce pressure on the lower back and hips, and distribute weight more evenly, taking stress off pressure points.

It can also contribute to better spinal alignment. They also have safety benefits, as some riders could have an improved seatbelt position thanks to the thighs being in this position.

Second-Row Mechanical Armrest

Tesla also added mechanical, one-touch armrests to the Model Y L’s second row, a nice and premium touch for the riders in the middle of the vehicle:

Add the additional space the Model Y L provides to riders, and it already gets more comfortable. However, the addition of the mechanical armrests gives a good option of comfort for those who are seated in the second row.

They can also be retracted with the touch of a button, allowing for those in the third row to exit the vehicle easily.

One con to the mechanical portion of these armrests is that it is another moving part, and, of course, that puts it at risk of having issues.

However, it is certainly more premium than a manual armrest, and the flashy carbuyers will appreciate this small but mighty addition.

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