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SpaceX’s first orbital Starship launch “highly likely” in November, says Elon Musk
CEO Elon Musk says that it’s “highly likely” SpaceX will be ready to attempt its first orbital Starship launch in November 2022, and possibly as early as late October. But many major hurdles remain.
Adding to a welcome burst of insight into SpaceX’s fully-reusable Starship rocket program, Musk took to Twitter on September 21st to provide a bit more specific insight into the company’s next steps towards a crucial orbital launch debut. On September 19th, the CEO revealed that SpaceX would roll the Starship booster (B7) currently assigned to that debut back to the factory for mysterious “robustness upgrades” – an unexpected move right after a seemingly successful and record-breaking static fire test.
Two days later, Musk has indicated that those upgrades might involve fortifying Super Heavy Booster 7’s thrust section to ensure it can survive Raptor engine failures. With 33 Raptor V2 engines powering it and plenty of evidence that those Raptors are far from perfect reliability, the concern is understandable, even if the response is a bit different than SpaceX’s norm.
Prior to the start of preparations for Starship’s orbital launch debut, SpaceX sped through Starship development like it wanted to destroy as many rockets as possible – which, to some extent, it did. Rather than spend 6-12 months fiddling with the same few prototypes without a single launch attempt, SpaceX churned out Starships and test articles and aggressively tested them. A few times, SpaceX pushed a little too hard and made avoidable mistakes, but most of the failures produced large amounts of data that was then used to improve future vehicles.
The holy grail of that project was high-altitude Starship flight testing, which saw SpaceX finish, test, and launch a new Starship five times in six months, and culminated in the first fully successful high-altitude Starship launch and landing in May 2021.
In comparison, SpaceX’s orbital flight test preparations have been almost unrecognizable. While a good amount of progress has been made in the 16 months since SN15’s successful launch and landing, it’s clear that SpaceX has decided against taking significant risks. After spending more than six months slowly finishing and testing Super Heavy Booster 4 and Starship 20, the first orbital-class pair, SpaceX never even attempted a single Booster 4 static fire and unceremoniously retired both prototypes without attempting to fly either.
Without info from Musk or SpaceX, we may never know why SpaceX stood down B4 and S20, or why the company appears to have revised its development approach to be a bit more conservative after clearly demonstrating the efficacy of moving fast and taking big risks. It’s possible that winning a $3 billion contract that places Starship front and center in NASA’s attempt to return astronauts to the Moon has encouraged a more careful approach. SpaceX won that contract in April 2021.
Even in its more cautious third phase, Starship development is still extraordinarily hardware-rich, moving quickly, and uncovering many problems on the ground in lieu of learning from flight tests. But that doesn’t change the fact that the third phase of Starship development (H2 2021 – today) is proceeding more carefully than the first (Q4 2018 to Q4 2019) and second (Q1 2020 – Q2 2021) phases.
Nonetheless, SpaceX appears to finally be getting closer to Starship’s first orbital launch. According to Musk, the company could be ready for the first launch attempt as early as late October, but a November attempt is “highly likely.” He believes that SpaceX will have two pairs of orbital-class Starships and Super Heavy boosters (B7/S24; B8/S25) “ready for orbital flight by then,” potentially enabling a rapid return to flight after the first attempt. Musk is also excited about Super Heavy Booster 9, which has “many design changes” and a thrust section that will fully isolate all 33 Raptors from each other – crucial for preventing the failure of one engine from damaging others.
Meanwhile, as Musk forecasted, Super Heavy Booster 8 rolled to the launch pad on September 19th and will likely be proof tested in the near future while Booster 7 is upgraded back at the factory.
Encouraging as that may be, history has shown that reality – particularly when it involves Starship’s orbital launch debut – can be quite a bit different than the pictures Elon Musk paints. In September 2021, for example, Musk predicted that SpaceX would conduct the first Super Heavy static fire at Starbase’s orbital launch pad later that month. In reality, that crucial test occurred 11 months later (August 9th, 2022) and used an entirely different booster.
This is to say that significant progress has been made in the last few months, but SpaceX has a huge amount of work left, almost all of which lies in uncharted terrain. Starship 24, which completed its first six-engine static fire earlier this month, is currently undergoing strange modifications that seem to imply that the upper stage is not living up to SpaceX’s expectations. It’s unclear if additional testing will be required.
Super Heavy B7 is headed back to the factory for additional work after a successful seven-Raptor static fire. Once it returns to the pad, the sequencing isn’t clear, but SpaceX will need to complete the first full Super Heavy wet dress rehearsal (fully loading the booster with thousands of tons of flammable propellant) and the first full 33-Raptor static fire. It remains to be seen if SpaceX will continue its conservative approach (i.e. testing one, three, and seven engines over six weeks) or jump straight from seven- to 33-engine testing.
It’s also unclear where Ship 24 fits into that picture. SpaceX will eventually need to (or should) conduct a full wet dress rehearsal of the fully stacked Starship and may even want to attempt a 33-engine static fire with that fully-fueled two-stage vehicle to truly test the rocket under the same conditions it will launch under. Will SpaceX fully stack B7 and S24 as soon as the booster returns to the pad, risking a potentially flightworthy Starship during the riskiest Super Heavy tests yet?
SpaceX’s last year of activity suggests that the company will choose caution and conduct wet dress rehearsals and 33-engine static fires before and after stacking, potentially doubling the amount of testing required. One or several more tests will also be required if SpaceX decides to gradually build up to 33 engines, which is the approach that all Booster 7 activity to date suggests SpaceX will take.
Either way, it will be a major challenge for SpaceX to have a fully-stacked Starship ready to launch by the end of November. If any significant problems arise during any of the several unprecedented tests described above, Musk’s predicted schedule will likely become impossible. As a wildcard, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) has yet to issue SpaceX a license or experimental permit for orbital Starship launches, either of which is contingent upon dozens of “mitigations.”
This isn’t to say that it’s impossible for an orbital Starship launch attempt to occur in November. But factoring in the many issues Booster 7 and Ship 24 have experienced during much simpler tests, it’s becoming increasingly implausible that SpaceX will be ready to launch the pair before the end of 2022. Stay tuned.
Elon Musk
Tesla releases cryptic teaser for something massive and it’s coming this week
On Sunday morning, Tesla released a nine-second teaser video of what appears to be either a vehicle wheel, fan, or some sort of propeller, but there are no real clues as to what it could be exactly.

Tesla has released a cryptic teaser for something massive, and it will release details on it this week. With many different projects in the works, there is a lot of speculation going on about what it could potentially be, but we have a few ideas.
On Sunday morning, Tesla released a nine-second teaser video of what appears to be either a vehicle wheel, fan, or some sort of propeller, but there are no real clues as to what it could be exactly.
It then ends with “10/7,” meaning it will announce something on October 7, which is this Tuesday:
β Tesla (@Tesla) October 5, 2025
Given that Tesla has been working on a handful of pretty notable projects that are set for unveiling at the end of this year, and there are some clues that seem to point in their direction with this short teaser video.
There are two projects that come to mind almost immediately: the Tesla Roadster is one, and the “E41” or affordable model is the other. Here’s what we know about both:
Tesla Roadster Demo Event
Tesla said earlier this year that it would have a demo event for the Roadster to unveil some new technologies and show off what it has been working on over the past few years.
There have been a lot of crazy things in the works for the Roadster, including a SpaceX package that would use cold-gas thrusters for an insane 1.1-second 0-60 MPH acceleration rate. This package was also supposed to help it hover, something CEO Elon Musk has teased for the past few years.
The Roadster was ready for release earlier this year, but after Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen and VP of Powertrain Lars Moravy showed Musk what they had come up with, he wanted more.
Moravy said on theΒ Ride the Lightning podcast earlier this year:
“What we had come up with exceeded what we originally planned. So, Elon was like, ‘Wow, great. Let’s do more!'”
The Roadster event was coined as “the most epic demo,” and since it was planned for the end of 2025, it is totally feasible to believe this could be it.
Tesla ‘E41’ Affordable Model
Some believe the teaser could be the official launch of Tesla’s affordable model, which Musk said earlier this year is simply a stripped down Model Y.
There have been some sightings of this vehicle in the past few weeks, including one on Friday that showed the vehicle completely uncovered for the first time:
π¨ It looks like the new affordable Tesla Model Y was spotted near Giga Texas
Model Y body with the Model 3 fascia, no glass roof, and looks as if there is a front bumper camera!
Should be coming soon! https://t.co/UAXQMHjM23 pic.twitter.com/9lC5te9GnW
β TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 3, 2025
The launch of the affordable model makes sense, especially from a timing perspective. With the $7,500 EV tax credit officially coming to a close on September 30, many are wondering how Tesla will spark growth in its deliveries. A more affordable EV would be the perfect response, and it is something that Tesla has been working on for some time.
Other Potential Ideas
There are some pretty interesting ideas as to what the teaser could be apart from the Roadster or affordable model. Some believe it could be a cooling fan for a GPU cluster, which would make sense considering Tesla’s prowess in data.
Grok also made an interesting guess, stating it could be a propeller for a secret air taxi Tesla is developing. This seems sort of our of left field.
We do know Tesla hosted a handful of influencers at Gigafactory Texas this past week, so whatever the company showed them is likely what will be unveiled on Tuesday.
News
Tesla Optimus is learning martial arts in new video teasing capabilities
For the past few months, Tesla has been refining its capabilities and making some serious progress on what Optimus is capable of. This morning, Musk released a new video showing Optimus learning Kung Fu, perhaps its most impressive feat yet.

Tesla Optimus is learning martial arts, a new video released by CEO Elon Musk shows, a crazy development and advancement in the robotics project the company has been working on for a few years.
Optimus has been a major focus of Tesla for the past several years, especially as Musk has said he believes it will be the biggest product of all time and could be the biggest contributor to the company’s valuation.
For the past few months, Tesla has been refining its capabilities and making some serious progress on what Optimus is capable of. This morning, Musk released a new video showing Optimus learning Kung Fu, perhaps its most impressive feat yet:
Tesla Optimus learning Kung Fu pic.twitter.com/ziEuiiKWn7
β Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 4, 2025
The video shows Optimus working with a Kung Fu teacher, known as a Shifu, going through what appears to be some sort of routine of combinations. It’s quite impressive to see the fluidity of the movements and Optimus’s ability to keep up with Shifu.
Tesla has been “working hard” to scale Optimus production, Musk said last week, a project that has obviously confronted both AI and manufacturing teams with a variety of challenges.
The plan is to have an annual production run-rate of one million units by 2030, and there were plans to build 5,000 units this year.
Musk still believes Optimus will make up roughly 80 percent of Tesla’s value. In January, he said it would be “overwhelmingly the value of the company.”
Tesla plans to launch the Gen 3 version of Optimus soon, and although a video of a new-look prototype was released by Marc Benioff, the CEO of Salesforce, the company’s frontman stated that this was not what the next-generation prototype would look like.
Elon Musk confirms Tesla has never shown Optimus V3 design yet
This video seems to show there is still significant progress being made on the Optimus project, and it will be perhaps one of the most impressive humanoid robots available to consumers in the coming years.
Elon Musk
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 gets new release date, Elon Musk details
“Last minute bug cropped up with V14. Released is pushed to Monday, but that gives us time to add a few more features.”

Tesla’s Full Self-Driving version 14 has gotten a new release date after new details from CEO Elon Musk opened up some new perspectives on the suite.
Originally slated for an “early wide release” of v14 this past week, then a launch of v14.1 and v14.2 this week and next week, respectively, delays arose after Tesla’s Autopilot team found some issues within the software.
Tesla FSD V14 set for early wide release next week: Elon Musk
Musk detailed on X this morning that a “last minute bug” appeared before release, which has now pushed FSD v14’s release back to this Monday:
Last minute bug cropped up with V14. Released is pushed to Monday, but that gives us time to add a few more features.
β Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 4, 2025
Musk also said the delay would give Tesla the ability to “add a few more features,” which seems like an added advantage, although he did not provide any additional details on what these features could be.
In classic Musk fashion, he has teased the capabilities of this version of the FSD suite since it became public knowledge that Tesla was working on it. He said that it is the second most important update for the AI/Autopilot team since FSD v12.
V14 will have a parameter count that is ten times what previous iterations were, which should provide more accuracy and a more human-like operation.
π¨ Tesla is making “significant improvements” in FSD software and plans to increase parameter count by roughly 10x from what people are currently experiencing pic.twitter.com/r974W6ToGi
β TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 23, 2025
Musk has said v14 “feels alive” and has used the word “sentient” to describe its performance. The goal with the new FSD rollouts is to eliminate as many interventions as possible, making it as close to human driving as possible.
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