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SpaceX’s orbital Starship launch debut could still happen this year

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship's first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (SpaceX)

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5 years ago

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Despite the spectacular demise of a full-scale prototype just days ago, a senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship could still be ready for its first orbital launch attempt before the end of the year.

Even if the first launch attempt fails, that milestone – if realized – would be one of the single biggest upsets in the history of spaceflight, proving that Saturn V-scale orbital-class rockets can likely be built in spartan facilities with common materials for pennies on the dollar. Much like Falcon 1 suffered three launch failures before successfully reaching orbit, there’s a strong chance that Starship’s first shot at orbit will fall short, although each full-up launch failure would likely cost substantially more than the current prototypes being routinely tested to destruction in South Texas.

Most recently, what CEO Elon Musk later described as a “a minor test of a quick disconnect” went wrong in a spectacular fashion, causing a major liquid methane leak that subsequently ignited and created a massive explosion. Although Starship SN4 did technically complete its fifth Raptor engine static fire test just a minute or so prior, the ship and its immediate surroundings were obliterated by the violent explosion, leaving little more than steel shrapnel and the broken husk of a launch mount behind. It’s in this context that one of SpaceX’s most levelheaded, expert executives believes that an orbital launch could still happen this year.

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship’s first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

While Starship SN4’s demise and the continued possibility of the ship’s orbital launch debut occurring less than seven months from now may seem at odds with each other, that’s actually just a side effect of the approach SpaceX has always taken when developing brand new rockets and spacecraft. Following the lead of the scrappy teams that used the exact same methods to design, test, and fly the massive Saturn rockets that took humans to the Moon, SpaceX has always preferred to learn by doing.

Inevitably, testing minimum viable products to their limits will lead to failures, but those failures are actually extremely valuable so long as they are extensively analyzed and learned from. That’s exactly what SpaceX has been doing for the last six or so months with full-scale Starship prototypes: building, testing, failing, and improving in an unending cycle. Built slowly with inferior methods, Starship Mk1 almost immediately during its first pressure test in November 2019. SpaceX took that failure, extracted all the insight it could, and dramatically improved its production methods before completing Starship SN1 barely three months later.

On November 20th, 2019 Starship Mk1 burst during its first major cryogenic pressure test. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
In January, SpaceX built and tested two ‘test tanks’ to failure. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN01 failed on February 28th because of a faulty ‘thrust puck’, later rectified with a third test tank that became the first to survive pressure testing just 10 days later.(NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN3 was destroyed by an improper test procedure on April 3rd. (LabPadre)
Starship SN4 marked the most recent failure during SpaceX’s hardware-rich development program.

Prior to SN1, SpaceX built and tested two stout test tanks to failure, ultimately achieving pressures of ~8.5 bar – sufficient for reliable human spaceflight – with the second tank on January 30th, 2020. On February 28th, Starship SN1 was unfortunately destroyed by a faulty ‘thrust puck’ (Raptor engine mount). Just 10 days later, SpaceX successfully tested a third ad-hoc test tank, proving that it had already rectified the engine section design flaw. Hardware isn’t always the only problem, however, and Starship SN3 was destroyed by human operator error during a cryogenic proof test on April 3rd.

Starship SN4 was completed and moved to the launch pad less than a month later and began testing just a few days after that, quickly racking up milestones as it became the first full-scale prototype to pass cryogenic proof testing, perform a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with real propellant, fire up a Raptor engine, and complete a more ambitious cryogenic pressure test. Prior to the ground systems fuel leak that killed it, SN4 was possibly just days away from attempting the inaugural flight of a full-scale Starship prototype.

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With Starship SN4 now steel confetti, Starship SN5 – effectively complete – will likely take over where its predecessor left off, heading to the launch pad within the next week or so before attempting a cryogenic pressure test and Raptor static fire to clear it for flight. Per Koenigsmann, that flight debut could come just a few weeks from now – likely before the end of June if replacement ground equipment can be quickly completed. If Starship SN5 survives that hop debut, it may ultimately be upgraded with a nosecone, flaps, and two additional Raptor engines to perform a dramatic 20 km (~12 mi) flight, capped with a supersonic skydiver-style reentry and landing test.

Once that capability has been successfully demonstrated, Super Heavy development and orbital Starship operation and reentry are the next critical hurdles. If Koenigsmann is correct, it’s safe to say that the first fully heat-shielded Starships and the beginnings of the first one or several Super Heavy booster prototypes will begin to appear in South Texas within the next few months.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Cybertruck

Tesla clears the air on Cybertruck ‘deactivation’ video that is obviously fake

Tesla has cleared the air on the viral video, stating it is fake.

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6 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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Credit: Cybertruck | X

Tesla has cleared the air regarding a video that has been circulating, where the owner claims his Cybertruck was “deactivated” by the company while he was driving.

The video was shared on X and showed a driver pulled over on the side of the road, claiming his Cybertruck had been deactivated by Tesla in the middle of traffic. It is very obviously fake to those who know the company, but these kinds of things have a tendency to pick up steam.

The video shows a screen that says:

“Tesla Cybertruck De-Activated. Critical Issue Detected | Contact Customer Service, Comply with Cease & Desist to Re-Activate. Update Failed, Return to Dealer.”

The same person who posted the video also shared an image of what appears to be a Cease and Desist letter from Tesla, but it is also likely fake:

The company finally responded to the video on Monday afternoon, stating that the video is, in fact, fake, reiterating that it will not disable vehicles remotely for any reason.

It is a shame that these types of things happen, especially as people are prone to believe anything they see on the internet. As there is so much misinformation circulating surrounding Tesla and its CEO Elon Musk, it is no surprise that someone would leverage the situation for their own benefit.

If that Cease and Desist letter is not real, perhaps the next one might be. These types of things can truly cause damage to a company’s reputation, and someone getting an idea that Tesla would remotely deactivate a car could prevent them from buying one.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk is stepping up for Tesla Service in a big way

Elon Musk has stepped up to resolve a handful of customer issues regarding vehicle service.

Published

8 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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tesla service
Credit: Tesla

Elon Musk is stepping up to help customers in a big way, especially when they are having issues with Tesla’s Service.

Perhaps one of the biggest advantages Tesla owners have is access to Musk through X, his social media platform. Over the years, we’ve seen Tesla add features, refine its cars’ performance, and more, all through asking Musk directly through a post.

Now, Musk is stepping up in another way by resolving a few Service complaints that customers had.

The first occurred last week when a recall on a Tesla battery was not honored by Service. The company sought $30,000 for a replacement and labor, which was not right. Musk responded that he would personally investigate the matter. The vehicle was fixed at no cost as it was a recall, and was ready for pickup the next day.

It also revealed a new strategy Tesla is using to combat service communication issues:

Tesla creates clever solution to simplify and improve its Service

The next occurred with a Cybertruck owner who was in Japan. Their car was parked at an airport in the U.S. and had lost a vast majority of its state of charge, leaving them just fifty miles of range at the time.

Musk reached out to the owner and said Service will take care of the car and will investigate the cause of the battery drain:

There are not too many companies out there where the CEO will get involved with individual issues like these. It’s pretty exclusive to Tesla, as Musk has commonly stepped up to resolve complaints with vehicles or to confront features that some owners might find useful.

Service has been a weak point of the company for some time, but it has worked to refine and resolve customer complaints by building more Service Centers across the world that can handle these issues.

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Elon Musk

Tesla CEO Elon Musk confirms Robotaxi is opening to the public: here’s when

Anyone will be able to request a Tesla Robotaxi in September, Elon Musk said this morning.

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10 hours ago

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August 11, 2025

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer | X

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has confirmed that the company’s Robotaxi platform is opening to the public, and he even gave a timeline for when anyone will be able to access one for a ride.

Tesla’s Robotaxi platform launched to a small group on June 22 in Austin, Texas. The company has continued to expand the number of riders and its geofence over the past month and a half.

Tesla officially launches Robotaxi service with no driver

Additionally, it launched rides in the Bay Area of California, but it differs slightly, as the Texas Robotaxi platform does not utilize a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat. In California, the monitor sits in the driver’s seat.

As the geofence, service areas, and testing populations expand, Tesla fans are awaiting their elusive emails that enable their ability to use the Robotaxi platform. It now seems that the email will come soon, as Musk said Tesla will open up public access to Robotaxi next month:

Tesla has been prioritizing safety over anything else with the launch of the Robotaxi platform, which is why it has been slow to push invitations to new riders. It is confident in the abilities of the platform and its Full Self-Driving suite, which has been proven with data.

However, even a single accident could set Tesla back years in terms of its development of self-driving cars. It is not a risk it is willing to take.

Musk said during the recent Q2 Earnings Call:

“We need to make sure it works when the vehicles are fully under our control. It’s kind of one step at a time here. We don’t want to jump the gun. As I said, we’re being paranoid about safety. But I guess next year is I’d say confidently next year. I’m not sure when next year, but confidently next year, people would be able to add or subtract their car to the Tesla, Inc. fleet.”

As the platform will expand in Austin and the Bay Area for anyone, Tesla still continues to reiterate that Robotaxi will be available for everyone sometime next year, as Musk said in the quote above.

Things will continue to improve over time, and Tesla will likely expand its geofence in both regions in the coming weeks. It has already done that in Austin twice, with about a doubling in size occurring both times.

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