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SpaceX’s orbital Starship launch debut could still happen this year

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship's first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (SpaceX)

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Despite the spectacular demise of a full-scale prototype just days ago, a senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship could still be ready for its first orbital launch attempt before the end of the year.

Even if the first launch attempt fails, that milestone – if realized – would be one of the single biggest upsets in the history of spaceflight, proving that Saturn V-scale orbital-class rockets can likely be built in spartan facilities with common materials for pennies on the dollar. Much like Falcon 1 suffered three launch failures before successfully reaching orbit, there’s a strong chance that Starship’s first shot at orbit will fall short, although each full-up launch failure would likely cost substantially more than the current prototypes being routinely tested to destruction in South Texas.

Most recently, what CEO Elon Musk later described as a “a minor test of a quick disconnect” went wrong in a spectacular fashion, causing a major liquid methane leak that subsequently ignited and created a massive explosion. Although Starship SN4 did technically complete its fifth Raptor engine static fire test just a minute or so prior, the ship and its immediate surroundings were obliterated by the violent explosion, leaving little more than steel shrapnel and the broken husk of a launch mount behind. It’s in this context that one of SpaceX’s most levelheaded, expert executives believes that an orbital launch could still happen this year.

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship’s first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

While Starship SN4’s demise and the continued possibility of the ship’s orbital launch debut occurring less than seven months from now may seem at odds with each other, that’s actually just a side effect of the approach SpaceX has always taken when developing brand new rockets and spacecraft. Following the lead of the scrappy teams that used the exact same methods to design, test, and fly the massive Saturn rockets that took humans to the Moon, SpaceX has always preferred to learn by doing.

Inevitably, testing minimum viable products to their limits will lead to failures, but those failures are actually extremely valuable so long as they are extensively analyzed and learned from. That’s exactly what SpaceX has been doing for the last six or so months with full-scale Starship prototypes: building, testing, failing, and improving in an unending cycle. Built slowly with inferior methods, Starship Mk1 almost immediately during its first pressure test in November 2019. SpaceX took that failure, extracted all the insight it could, and dramatically improved its production methods before completing Starship SN1 barely three months later.

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On November 20th, 2019 Starship Mk1 burst during its first major cryogenic pressure test. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
In January, SpaceX built and tested two ‘test tanks’ to failure. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN01 failed on February 28th because of a faulty ‘thrust puck’, later rectified with a third test tank that became the first to survive pressure testing just 10 days later.(NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN3 was destroyed by an improper test procedure on April 3rd. (LabPadre)
Starship SN4 marked the most recent failure during SpaceX’s hardware-rich development program.

Prior to SN1, SpaceX built and tested two stout test tanks to failure, ultimately achieving pressures of ~8.5 bar – sufficient for reliable human spaceflight – with the second tank on January 30th, 2020. On February 28th, Starship SN1 was unfortunately destroyed by a faulty ‘thrust puck’ (Raptor engine mount). Just 10 days later, SpaceX successfully tested a third ad-hoc test tank, proving that it had already rectified the engine section design flaw. Hardware isn’t always the only problem, however, and Starship SN3 was destroyed by human operator error during a cryogenic proof test on April 3rd.

Starship SN4 was completed and moved to the launch pad less than a month later and began testing just a few days after that, quickly racking up milestones as it became the first full-scale prototype to pass cryogenic proof testing, perform a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with real propellant, fire up a Raptor engine, and complete a more ambitious cryogenic pressure test. Prior to the ground systems fuel leak that killed it, SN4 was possibly just days away from attempting the inaugural flight of a full-scale Starship prototype.

With Starship SN4 now steel confetti, Starship SN5 – effectively complete – will likely take over where its predecessor left off, heading to the launch pad within the next week or so before attempting a cryogenic pressure test and Raptor static fire to clear it for flight. Per Koenigsmann, that flight debut could come just a few weeks from now – likely before the end of June if replacement ground equipment can be quickly completed. If Starship SN5 survives that hop debut, it may ultimately be upgraded with a nosecone, flaps, and two additional Raptor engines to perform a dramatic 20 km (~12 mi) flight, capped with a supersonic skydiver-style reentry and landing test.

Once that capability has been successfully demonstrated, Super Heavy development and orbital Starship operation and reentry are the next critical hurdles. If Koenigsmann is correct, it’s safe to say that the first fully heat-shielded Starships and the beginnings of the first one or several Super Heavy booster prototypes will begin to appear in South Texas within the next few months.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Tesla plans ingenious improvement to one of its best features

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla is planning to improve one of the best features on its lineup of cars, a new patent shows. Tesla’s massive glass roof on its premium models is among the coolest additions to the all-electric vehicles, but the design certainly has its complaints, especially from those who live in even slightly warm climates.

Tesla has published a new patent that promises to transform cabin comfort in its electric vehicles, particularly those equipped with the expansive glass roofs.

The document, identified as US20260091643A1 and titled “Airflow Optimization for Cabin Comfort“, addresses that common complaint. Sunlight streaming through windshields and panoramic roofs creates localized hot air pockets near the dashboard and headliner. These pockets generate significant temperature gradients that conventional heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems struggle to manage evenly.

The exposure to direct sunlight can make the cabin extremely warm, and even after cooling down the interior temperature, combating the continuous stream of sunlight and heat is a challenge. It uses precious energy that is especially pertinent to range and efficiency.

The patent explains how standard dashboard vents push cool air upward, only to entrain warmer air from these stagnant zones and distribute it throughout the occupied cabin space. This process forces the blower to operate at higher speeds, increasing energy consumption and reducing overall efficiency.

In electric vehicles, where every watt impacts driving range, such inefficiencies prove costly.

Research from AAA indicates that air conditioning can diminish range by up to 17 percent under hot conditions. Tesla’s innovation shifts the approach by extracting heat at its source rather than attempting to dilute it after mixing occurs.

Engineers describe a suction HVAC unit connected to dedicated intakes positioned strategically on the upper dashboard surface and within the headliner.

These intakes link to a hot air pocket extraction duct that channels the warmest air directly into the system’s plenum for conditioning. As the blower activates, it simultaneously draws recirculated cabin air and targeted hot pocket air through filters and cooling coils before redistributing conditioned airflow.

It seems somewhat reminiscent of the Tesla heat pump, which aims to combat colder temperatures.

Tesla highlights Model Y’s heat pump innovations in new promotional video

This method reduces entrainment, lowers peak temperatures, and achieves more uniform comfort levels. Testing data reveals that facial temperature gradients drop from 21 degrees Celsius, or 69.8 degrees Fahrenheit, in conventional setups to just 12 degrees Celsius (53.6 degrees F) with the new system. Blower speeds and compressor power requirements decrease appreciably as a result.

The design incorporates smart controls that monitor sunlight intensity and internal temperature distributions in real time. Suction activates selectively only where needed, optimizing energy use without constant high demand. Furthermore, the extraction duct serves a dual purpose.

In the summer months, it pulls hot air inward for cooling; in winter, it reverses to direct warm air outward for rapid windshield defrosting. This versatility allows the reuse of existing hardware with minimal modifications, potentially enabling retrofits in current Tesla fleets.

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Tesla saves its passengers again – This time after a 300-foot cliff fall in Malibu

A Tesla Model 3 fell 300 feet off a Malibu cliff and both passengers survived.

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A Tesla Model 3 plunged roughly 300 feet off a cliff on Mulholland Highway in Malibu on Friday morning, May 29, 2026, and both occupants survived. The crash was reported at approximately 7:30 a.m. near the 2500 block of Mulholland Highway, triggering a multi-agency rescue operation involving Malibu Search and Rescue, the Los Angeles County Fire Department, the California Highway Patrol, and McCormick Ambulance.

When first responders arrived, the male driver was outside the vehicle shouting for help while the female passenger remained pinned inside the Tesla. Rescue crews rappelled down the cliffside on ropes to reach the wreckage. A flight medic was lowered by helicopter to begin treating both victims, and the driver was hoisted up to the roadway before crews used the Jaws of Life to free the trapped passenger. Both were airlifted to a local trauma center with moderate injuries despite a remarkable result for a fall that steep.

The outcome is not surprising, considering Model 3 earned an overall 5-star rating from NHTSA in every category and sub-category, and recorded the lowest probability of injury of any car ever evaluated by the U.S. New Car Assessment Program. The absence of a traditional engine in the front of the vehicle creates a longer crumple zone that absorbs impact energy before it reaches occupants, and the battery pack running along the floor gives the car an unusually low center of gravity that reinforces structural rigidity.

This is not the first time a Tesla has kept passengers alive after going off a cliff. A Tesla Model Y carrying a family of four survived a plunge off a cliff at Devil’s Slide near San Francisco in January 2023, with two adults and two children walking away from a 250-foot fall. That incident drew widespread attention to how the structural integrity of Tesla’s electric platform performs in extreme crash scenarios that most vehicles would not survive.

Tesla Model Y driver who drove off cliff with family attempts to avoid criminal conviction

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Tesla Full Self-Driving expansion in Europe continues with new addition

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) has taken yet another significant step forward in Europe. On May 29, Estonia became the third European Union country to approve the advanced driver-assistance technology, following approvals in the Netherlands and Lithuania.

Tesla Europe announced the news on X, confirming the expansion has continued across the continent that, at one time, seemed to be taking its sweet old time giving any approval to the FSD suite.

Estonia’s Transport Administration (Transpordiamet) granted the approval by recognizing the type certification issued by the Dutch vehicle authority RDW. This mutual recognition mechanism, enabled by EU regulations, allows other member states to fast-track deployment without repeating extensive local testing.

The Estonian authority noted that Tesla’s FSD had undergone rigorous evaluation on European roads for approximately 18 months before the initial Dutch approval in April 2026.

FSD Supervised remains classified as a Level 2 advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS). Drivers must maintain full attention, keep their hands on the wheel, and stay ready to intervene at any moment.

The system assists with tasks such as automatic lane changes, navigation through city streets, and responding to traffic objects, but it does not constitute full autonomy. Estonian officials emphasized this distinction, underscoring that safety responsibility lies entirely with the driver.

The rapid progression across the Baltic region highlights Tesla’s strategic approach to European expansion. The Netherlands provided the foundational type approval in April, unlocking doors for neighboring countries.

Lithuania followed swiftly in mid-May, with rollout beginning shortly thereafter. Estonia’s decision, coming just days later, demonstrates how smaller, digitally progressive nations are accelerating adoption.

Tesla owners in Estonia can expect an over-the-air software update in the coming weeks, bringing the latest FSD capabilities to compatible vehicles

This expansion builds on Tesla’s global momentum. FSD Supervised is now available in 11 countries worldwide, including the United States, Canada, Australia, and South Korea. In Europe, the approvals signal growing regulatory confidence in Tesla’s vision-based AI approach, which relies on cameras and neural networks rather than lidar or radar-heavy alternatives used by some competitors.

For Tesla, these European milestones are more than symbolic. They validate years of data collection and software iteration while opening new revenue streams through FSD subscriptions and purchases.

As the company continues refining its AI models with real-world miles from diverse driving environments, including Estonia’s variable winter conditions, the dataset grows richer, potentially benefiting global users.

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