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SpaceX’s orbital Starship launch debut could still happen this year

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship's first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (SpaceX)

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Despite the spectacular demise of a full-scale prototype just days ago, a senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship could still be ready for its first orbital launch attempt before the end of the year.

Even if the first launch attempt fails, that milestone – if realized – would be one of the single biggest upsets in the history of spaceflight, proving that Saturn V-scale orbital-class rockets can likely be built in spartan facilities with common materials for pennies on the dollar. Much like Falcon 1 suffered three launch failures before successfully reaching orbit, there’s a strong chance that Starship’s first shot at orbit will fall short, although each full-up launch failure would likely cost substantially more than the current prototypes being routinely tested to destruction in South Texas.

Most recently, what CEO Elon Musk later described as a “a minor test of a quick disconnect” went wrong in a spectacular fashion, causing a major liquid methane leak that subsequently ignited and created a massive explosion. Although Starship SN4 did technically complete its fifth Raptor engine static fire test just a minute or so prior, the ship and its immediate surroundings were obliterated by the violent explosion, leaving little more than steel shrapnel and the broken husk of a launch mount behind. It’s in this context that one of SpaceX’s most levelheaded, expert executives believes that an orbital launch could still happen this year.

A senior SpaceX engineer and executive believes that Starship’s first orbital launch could still happen by the end of 2020. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)

While Starship SN4’s demise and the continued possibility of the ship’s orbital launch debut occurring less than seven months from now may seem at odds with each other, that’s actually just a side effect of the approach SpaceX has always taken when developing brand new rockets and spacecraft. Following the lead of the scrappy teams that used the exact same methods to design, test, and fly the massive Saturn rockets that took humans to the Moon, SpaceX has always preferred to learn by doing.

Inevitably, testing minimum viable products to their limits will lead to failures, but those failures are actually extremely valuable so long as they are extensively analyzed and learned from. That’s exactly what SpaceX has been doing for the last six or so months with full-scale Starship prototypes: building, testing, failing, and improving in an unending cycle. Built slowly with inferior methods, Starship Mk1 almost immediately during its first pressure test in November 2019. SpaceX took that failure, extracted all the insight it could, and dramatically improved its production methods before completing Starship SN1 barely three months later.

On November 20th, 2019 Starship Mk1 burst during its first major cryogenic pressure test. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
In January, SpaceX built and tested two ‘test tanks’ to failure. (NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN01 failed on February 28th because of a faulty ‘thrust puck’, later rectified with a third test tank that became the first to survive pressure testing just 10 days later.(NASASpaceflight – bocachicagal)
Starship SN3 was destroyed by an improper test procedure on April 3rd. (LabPadre)
Starship SN4 marked the most recent failure during SpaceX’s hardware-rich development program.

Prior to SN1, SpaceX built and tested two stout test tanks to failure, ultimately achieving pressures of ~8.5 bar – sufficient for reliable human spaceflight – with the second tank on January 30th, 2020. On February 28th, Starship SN1 was unfortunately destroyed by a faulty ‘thrust puck’ (Raptor engine mount). Just 10 days later, SpaceX successfully tested a third ad-hoc test tank, proving that it had already rectified the engine section design flaw. Hardware isn’t always the only problem, however, and Starship SN3 was destroyed by human operator error during a cryogenic proof test on April 3rd.

Starship SN4 was completed and moved to the launch pad less than a month later and began testing just a few days after that, quickly racking up milestones as it became the first full-scale prototype to pass cryogenic proof testing, perform a wet dress rehearsal (WDR) with real propellant, fire up a Raptor engine, and complete a more ambitious cryogenic pressure test. Prior to the ground systems fuel leak that killed it, SN4 was possibly just days away from attempting the inaugural flight of a full-scale Starship prototype.

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With Starship SN4 now steel confetti, Starship SN5 – effectively complete – will likely take over where its predecessor left off, heading to the launch pad within the next week or so before attempting a cryogenic pressure test and Raptor static fire to clear it for flight. Per Koenigsmann, that flight debut could come just a few weeks from now – likely before the end of June if replacement ground equipment can be quickly completed. If Starship SN5 survives that hop debut, it may ultimately be upgraded with a nosecone, flaps, and two additional Raptor engines to perform a dramatic 20 km (~12 mi) flight, capped with a supersonic skydiver-style reentry and landing test.

Once that capability has been successfully demonstrated, Super Heavy development and orbital Starship operation and reentry are the next critical hurdles. If Koenigsmann is correct, it’s safe to say that the first fully heat-shielded Starships and the beginnings of the first one or several Super Heavy booster prototypes will begin to appear in South Texas within the next few months.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Starship lunar update shows SpaceX will not give up the Moon without a fight

SpaceX stated that the revised concept aims to “result in a faster return to the moon while simultaneously improving crew safety.”

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX is reassessing its Starship mission plan for NASA’s Artemis 3 program, exploring what it calls a “simplified” architecture that could accelerate the first crewed lunar landing of the 21st century. 

The private space company stated that the revised concept aims to “result in a faster return to the moon while simultaneously improving crew safety,” following NASA’s decision to reopen the lunar mission contract to new competition.

SpaceX outlines HLS progress

In a blog post titled To the Moon and Beyond, SpaceX detailed recent Starship milestones and reaffirmed its role as a “core enabler” of NASA’s lunar ambitions. As per SpaceX, its efforts are not just aimed at returning to the Moon. It is aimed at establishing a permanent, sustainable presence on the lunar surface. 

“Since the contract was awarded, we have been consistently responsive to NASA as requirements for Artemis III have changed and have shared ideas on how to simplify the mission to align with national priorities. In response to the latest calls, we’ve shared and are formally assessing a simplified mission architecture and concept of operations that we believe will result in a faster return to the Moon while simultaneously improving crew safety,” SpaceX wrote in its post.

The post described Starship’s vast potential for lunar operations, noting that a single vehicle provides over 600 cubic meters of pressurized habitable volume, roughly two-thirds that of pressurized volume of the entire International Space Station, and is “complete with a cabin that can be scaled for large numbers of explorers and dual airlocks for surface exploration.” 

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SpaceX also mentioned its fixed-price NASA contract, which ensures taxpayer protection while incentivizing milestone-based progress. As part of its preparations for a Moon mission, SpaceX plans to conduct a key in-space refueling demonstration in 2026, as noted in a Space.com report. Regerdless, SpaceX is still continuing the parallel development of its “core” Starship for Mars and deep-space exploration.

SpaceX’s update followed NASA concerns

NASA Acting Administrator Sean Duffy recently voiced frustration over Starship’s pace, noting on CNBC that SpaceX “pushed their timelines out” while the U.S. remains in a race against rivals. In a comment, Duffy stated that NASA will not wait for one company as it pushes forward with its Artemis program.

“I love SpaceX. It’s an amazing company. The problem is, they’re behind. They’ve pushed their timelines out, and we’re in a race against China. The president and I want to get to the Moon in this president’s term, so I’m going to open up the contracts. I’m going to let other space companies compete with SpaceX, like Blue Origin,” Duffy said.

Elon Musk publicly criticized Duffy over his remarks, but SpaceX’s latest update has shifted the focus back to technical progress and mission readiness. While SpaceX did not elaborate on the details of its simplified architecture, Musk hinted that Starship could eventually accomplish “the whole moon mission” on its own. “Starship will build Moonbase Alpha,” Musk wrote in a recent post on X. 

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Neuralink Head of Surgery teases exciting Tesla Optimus update

If successful, the test could result in Neuralink patients accomplishing impressive feats using Optimus.

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Credit: Tesla

Neuralink’s Head of Surgery has teased what could very well be the an incredibly ambitious and insane collaboration with Tesla Optimus, Elon Musk’s humanoid robot that is expected to start initial trial production sometime next year. 

If successful, the test could result in Neuralink patients accomplishing impressive feats using Optimus.

Neuralink’s current trials

Neuralink recently shared a video of Alex, the second human recipient of its Telepathy device. Alex is part of Neuralink’s PRIME study, and he was selected to be the first patient to control a robotic arm using only his mind. As could be seen in the video, Alex is now capable of operating household appliances using a robotic arm that he controls with his mind. 

In response to the video, which was posted by Neuralink co-founder and President DJ Seo, the startup’s Head of Surgery Mechanical Engineering, Danish Hussain, joked that the company is really just helping out people. This was despite critics arguing that Neuralink is some giant evil corporation. “We’re literally just out here helping the homies eat pretzels lol,” the Head of Surgery ME wrote. 

Next steps with Optimus

The Neuralink Head of Surgery ME’s comments caught quite a bit of attention on X, with some, such as Elon Musk, highlighting that Neuralink is actually a pretty small company. Other commenters also asked whether Neuralink would eventually train its patients with Tesla Optimus V2, a humanoid robot. Hussain shared an exciting response: “We’re starting simple, but this will happen very soon!” he wrote in a post on X.

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Having the capability to control an Optimus robot using only the mind would most definitely be a life-changing ability for Neuralink’s patients. Of course, Tesla might wait until Optimus V3 gets rolled out before such a trial might happen, as that is the variant of the humanoid robot that seems to be heading for mass production. Either way, it seems like an age where Optimus robots can be controlled by thoughts using a Neuralink implant may be coming sooner than expected.

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Tesla Supercharger Network is so reliable, it’s pushing Model Y sales

Tesla’s Supercharger network is proving to be a key factor in the company’s dominance in several key markets.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Supercharger network is proving to be a key factor in the company’s dominance in several key markets. These include Norway, which has become a place of strength for the new Model Y. 

This was hinted at by Tesla’s Director of Charging, Max de Zegher, on social media platform X.

Supercharger network sets the industry standard

As noted by the Tesla executive, the Model Y accounted for 29% of all vehicle sales in Norway in September. Part of the vehicle’s success was likely due to the reliability of the Supercharger Network, which is class leading even in Norway, where 98% of new cars sold are electric.

De Zegher emphasized on X that Tesla Superchargers are still in a class of their own. An EPSI survey of nearly 1,500 Norwegian EV drivers supported his claim, as Tesla Superchargers retained first place in customer satisfaction for the fifth consecutive year. 

The EPSI Survey‘s results

Respondents to the EPSI survey praised the Supercharger network’s strong uptime, abundant capacity, and user-friendly digital solutions, placing it ahead of other operators such as Uno-X. Survey researchers highlighted that Tesla has set the standard when it comes to simplicity in the charging process.

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Drivers also cited competitive pricing and seamless plug-and-charge functionality as major reasons they prefer Tesla’s network, especially in Norway’s extreme winter conditions where reliability is critical.

“Tesla has set the standard for simplicity in the charging process. Combined with competitive prices, this means that many electric car drivers say they are likely to choose Tesla again the next time they need to charge,” EPSI noted in a post.

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