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SpaceX teases progress towards Starship’s orbital launch debut
A recorded address from SpaceX President and COO Gwynne Shotwell to a graduating class of college seniors unexpectedly teased progress building the 35 Raptor engines that will power Starship’s imminent orbital launch attempt.
In a seemingly calculated move, the famous SpaceX executive’s prerecorded address included a glimpse of a screen on the factory floor tasked with tracking progress towards Starship’s first “orbital launch.” Featuring a basic graphic clearly depicting the aft ends of a Starship upper stage and Super Heavy booster, the display ultimate indicated that SpaceX has already “shipped” at least 11 of the almost three-dozen Raptor engines needed for the combined rocket’s first launch attempt.
Just three months ago, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk confirmed well-sourced reports from NASASpaceflight.com that the company was aiming to attempt Starship’s first orbital launch no later than July 2021. Two months later, regulatory documents revealed more concrete details for said launch attempt, indicating that Starship and Super Heavy’s first combined launch would see the ship spend some 80 minutes in space before reentering and splashing down off the coast of Hawai’i.
Not long after, Musk revealed that SpaceX boosted Super Heavy’s engine count from 28 to 29 and implied that even the first few orbital launch attempts would use a full complement of 29 engines. Combined with Starship’s three sea level and three vacuum-optimized Raptors and indications that the first one or more orbital-class ships and boosters will be expended without any recovery attempt, it became clear that SpaceX would need to radically expand Raptor production to meet such unprecedented demand for engines.
All told, SpaceX will need to manufacture, qualify, and deliver at least 35 Raptor engines to fully outfit every Starship and Super Heavy pair. If initial test flights are meant to expend both stages, that already exceptional challenge expands to require 35 engines for every launch attempt. Eventually, SpaceX’s goal is to manufacture hundreds of Raptor engines per year to outfit dozens of Starships and Super Heavy boosters, but Raptor only began full-scale integrated ground testing a little over two years ago.
Despite the challenges, SpaceX appears to be more than up to them and the display Shotwell walked past within the last month or two suggests that the company’s main Hawthorne, California factory has already “shipped” almost a third of the engines required for Starship’s inaugural orbital test flight. In this case, “shipped” likely means that those 11 engines have left the factory and headed to McGregor, Texas to be cleared for flight.
Several may already have made it through qualification testing and been delivered to Boca Chica – in fact, two new engines arrived at SpaceX’s Starship factory just last weekend. However, the rapid-fire arrival of dozens of Raptors will be unlike anything yet seen in Boca Chica. Altogether, SpaceX has sent a total of 30-35 Raptors to Boca Chica in the last two years. In the runup to Starship’s first orbital launch attempt, possibly as early Q3 2021, SpaceX will need to deliver ~35 Raptors in two months – an unprecedented influx of engines that will be easily tracked by the public.
Perhaps the most intriguing part of SpaceX’s calculated Starship launch teaser is the presence of a 25-day countdown, indicating that something is supposed to happen within the next two to four weeks. Given the display’s focus on “engines shipped,” the timer is likely counting down to an internal shipment target for the mission’s 35th and final engine. If SpaceX hits that target and Shotwell’s class address was recorded within the last week or so, all 35 orbital test flight Raptors could feasibly leave the factory floor by the end of the first full week of July, leaving a few weeks to finish qualification testing and ship each engine to Boca Chica before the end of the month.
If SpaceX can clear all 35 Raptors for flight by the end of July, it’s plausible that clean qualification testing could leave the first orbital-class Starship and Super Heavy booster ready for their launch debut in August or September – and almost certainly before the end of the year.
Tesla has launched a new solution to a rare but relevant Supercharger problem with a new Virtual Waitlist, a remedy that will solve sequencing confusion when there is a line to charge at one of the company’s locations.
Teslarati reported on what we called the Virtual Queue last month. In rare occurrences, there were physical altercations at Superchargers when someone might have cut in line to charge. Tesla started to develop some sort of system that would resolve this issue, and now it is finally rolling it out.
Tesla launches solution to end Supercharger fights once and for all
It will start with a Pilot Program, and Tesla is calling it the ‘Waitlist.’
Announced on May 11 on the official TeslaCharging X account, the pilot program is currently active at sites in Los Gatos, Mountain View, and San Francisco in California, as well as San Jose, CA, and the Bronx, NY (East Gun Hill Road). Drivers are encouraged to share feedback directly through the Tesla app to refine the system before a potential broader rollout.
We’re now testing a new waitlist feature at 5 Supercharger sites. Share feedback through the Tesla app to help us make it better.
– Los Gatos, CA – Los Gatos Boulevard
– Mountain View, CA – El Monte Avenue
– San Francisco, CA – Lombard Street
– San Jose, CA – Saratoga Avenue
-… pic.twitter.com/epTVzpJxgW— Tesla Charging (@TeslaCharging) May 11, 2026
Tesla released the video above to showcase the feature, which automatically joins the waitlist when your vehicle has the Supercharger with the wait as the destination in the navigation. There is also a notification that lets you know your place in line.
In this specific example, the video shows that the wait is less than five minutes, and that there are two cars ahead of the one in the video:
Credit: Tesla
Having a wait at a Supercharger is relatively rare, but it does happen. It is even more frequent now that there are more EVs allowed to use the Supercharger Network. Those non-Tesla EVs can also join the queue, as Tesla added in its social media release of the pilot program that they can join the waitlist using the Tesla app.
The release of this program should help alleviate the rare risk of incidents at Superchargers. Tesla will expand this program as it sees fit, and it gathers valuable data and reviews from users.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors from a fiscal standpoint, at least that is what Alexander Potter at Piper Sandler, a top Wall Street firm covering the company, says.
Piper Sandler has updated its detailed valuation model for Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), concluding that at recent share prices around $400–$420, investors are essentially acquiring the company’s ambitious Optimus humanoid robot project at no extra cost.
Analyst Alexander Potter, in the firm’s latest “Definitive Guide to Investing in Tesla,” built a comprehensive framework covering 17 separate product lines.
This granular approach values Tesla’s core businesses—including electric vehicles, energy storage, Full Self-Driving (FSD) software, in-house insurance, Supercharging network, and a standalone robotaxi operation—at approximately $400 per share, without assigning any value to Optimus or related inference-as-a-service opportunities.
“At $400/share, we think investors can buy Optimus for ‘free,’” Potter stated in the note. Piper Sandler maintained its Overweight rating on Tesla shares and a $500 price target, which implicitly attributes roughly $100 per share to the robot-related businesses— a figure the analyst views as potentially conservative.
The updated model incorporates elements often overlooked by other sell-side analysts, such as detailed forecasts for Tesla’s insurance operations, Supercharger revenue, and a distinct valuation for the robotaxi business separate from FSD software licensing. It also accounts for Tesla’s 2025 CEO compensation plan for the first time.
Potter acknowledged that his estimates for 2026 and 2027 fall below Wall Street consensus, citing factors like declining deliveries from certain discontinued models and reduced regulatory credit income.
However, he expressed limited concern, noting that traditional vehicle delivery metrics are expected to matter less over time as FSD subscriber growth and robotaxi deployment metrics gain prominence. On Optimus specifically, Potter suggested the humanoid robot program, combined with inference services, “arguably will be worth more than Tesla’s other businesses combined,” though the firm has not yet produced formal long-term forecasts for these segments.
Tesla shares have traded near the $400 range in recent sessions, reflecting ongoing investor focus on the company’s autonomous driving progress and expansion into robotics and AI. The Optimus project remains in early development stages, with Tesla aiming to deploy the robots initially for internal factory tasks before broader commercial applications.
This Piper Sandler analysis highlights the growing emphasis among some investors and analysts on Tesla’s long-term technology platform potential beyond its current automotive and energy businesses.
As with any forward-looking valuation, outcomes will depend on execution timelines, technological breakthroughs, regulatory approvals for autonomous systems, and market adoption of humanoid robotics—areas that carry significant uncertainty and execution risk.
The note underscores a common theme in Tesla coverage: differing views on how to quantify emerging high-growth opportunities like robotics within the company’s overall enterprise value. Investors are advised to consider their own risk tolerance and conduct thorough due diligence regarding these speculative elements.
News
Tesla Giga Texas buzzing as new Cybertruck appears to enter production
Additionally, the Cybercab manufacturing ramp-up is continuing amidst Tesla’s busy May, which includes a handful of things from an automotive perspective.
Tesla Giga Texas is buzzing with a lot of action, as it appears the new Cybertruck trim that was offered a few months back has entered production. Additionally, the Cybercab manufacturing ramp-up is continuing amidst Tesla’s busy May, which includes a handful of things from an automotive perspective.
Drone operator Joe Tegtmeyer captured striking footage over Giga Texas on the morning of May 11, 2026, revealing fresh batches of Cybertrucks that may mark the start of series production for the long-awaited $59,990 Dual Motor AWD variant.
Tesla launches new Cybertruck trim with more features than ever for a low price
The vehicles lined up in staging areas, and we got a great look at three of the units parked on the property:
Hard to say for sure, but production of the $59K AWD @Cybertruck may be just getting started here on this early and soggy morning at Giga Texas … this version is much harder to visually distinguish from the premium AWD versions, so I’ll come back on Wednesday and we’ll see if… pic.twitter.com/UX7yCQpgeC
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) May 11, 2026
Tegtmeyer notes the difficulty in visually distinguishing this base AWD model from higher-trim versions, unlike the earlier Long-Range RWD that lacked a motorized tonneau cover.
Tesla launched the $59,990 Dual Motor AWD Cybertruck in late February 2026 with a brief introductory pricing window that closed by month’s end.
Initial U.S. delivery estimates of June 2026 quickly slipped to September–October and, for newer orders, as far as April 2027.
The move underscores robust consumer interest in a more accessible all-wheel-drive Cybertruck priced under $60,000 before incentives—positioning it as a volume play for Tesla’s electric pickup lineup while premium AWD and Cyberbeast variants continue to be sold as usual.
Meanwhile, Cybercab production at the same Austin facility shows steady, if deliberate, progress. Tegtmeyer’s latest flyover documented dozens of glossy production-spec Cybercabs parked in the outbound lot—consistent with Tesla’s early statements that initial output would remain modest before scaling later in 2026.
The purpose-built robotaxi, unveiled in 2024 and lacking a steering wheel or pedals, rolled its first unit off the line in February. Volume manufacturing began in April, with early examples already undergoing autonomous testing around the factory grounds.
Elon Musk has repeatedly emphasized that Cybercab and Semi production will start slowly before ramping “exponentially” toward year-end. The presence of multiple finished units signals Tesla’s Unboxed manufacturing process is maturing, even as the company balances Cybertruck output with autonomy milestones.
Recent drone imagery also shows ongoing construction for Optimus and test-track expansions, highlighting Giga Texas’s evolving role as Tesla’s hub for next-generation vehicles.
For Cybertruck buyers, the potential ramp of the $59K AWD offers hope of shorter waits and broader market access. For autonomy enthusiasts, the growing fleet of Cybercabs hints at robotaxi service trials on the horizon.
While official confirmation from Tesla remains pending, Tegtmeyer’s footage provides the clearest public signal yet that both programs are advancing in parallel at Giga Texas.
Tesla launches its solution to rare but relevant Supercharger problem
Tesla Optimus is already benefiting investors, top Wall Street firm says
