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SpaceX Starship prototype speeding towards launch pad for first Raptor engine tests
SpaceX continues to build full-scale Starship hardware at a jaw-dropping pace, testing the limits of rocket production to complete the fifth full-scale prototype in three months and prepare the ship for its first Raptor engine ignition tests.
This time around, SpaceX CEO Elon Musk is fairly confident that the latest Starship prototype – known as serial number 3 (SN3) – has the best chance yet of becoming the first full-scale ship to pass acceptance tests and kick off a Raptor engine static fire campaign. A step further, if said static fires go according to plan, Starship SN3 could become the first full-scale vehicle of its kind to perform controlled flight tests.
Starship SN3 will thus attempt to follow in the footsteps of Starhopper and hopefully avoid an unintentional launch debut similar to the one that destroyed Starship SN1 earlier this month. A successful Starship flight test powered by three Raptor engines would be a major bode of confidence in the upgraded rocket factory SpaceX is building in South Texas. Musk recently made it clear that setting up the machine that builds the machine is currently just as important as individual Starship tests. Thankfully, given that SpaceX is already managing to build colossal rocket prototypes in a matter of weeks for what has to be pennies on the dollar, all with a team of just a few hundred people, the next Starship test campaign is likely just a week or two away.
On March 9th, Musk revealed that the Starship SN2 prototype – an incomplete tank repurposed for specific testing – had passed a proof test with flying colors. SN2’s brief test campaign managed to prove that SpaceX had already fixed the weak point believed to have destroyed Starship SN1 less than two weeks prior. Featuring a redesigned engine section and thrust structure (or “thrust puck,” per Musk), the Starship SN2 test tank survived pressure testing and even made it through engine thrust simulations with the help of an industrial-scale hydraulic jack.
While the tank passed its tests looking no worse for wear, the last-second design changes SpaceX had to make to rapidly perform thrust structure verification testing made it impossible to repurpose for any alternative use. Starship SN2 has thus been relegated to the scrapyard, a technical necessity but also a sign of both the program’s high rate of progress and low prototype cost. SpaceX’s Boca Chica factory has already more or less completed a new engine section for Starship SN3 and is probably just a day or two away from integrating it with the rest of the steel vehicle.
Less than three days after SpaceX’s brand new vehicle assembly building (VAB) had a single, small Starship section sat inside it, two additional sections of Starship SN3’s tank section departed their fabrication tents and were stacked on March 18th. Less than a day later, the third segment of the rocket’s tank section capped off the two that were stacked the day before. Once those three stacked sections are fully welded together to form a single, cohesive piece of steel, it will need to be stacked atop the aft tank dome and thrust structure to effectively complete Starship SN3’s tank section.
After all four sections are joined, technicians will need to install a few internal parts, but most remaining work mainly involves running wiring and plumbing for power, communications, propellant management, and pressurization. More likely than not, SpaceX replicate its Starship Mk1 and SN1 testing strategy and bring Starship SN3’s tank section to the launch pad for proof testing as soon as outfitting is complete. If the rocket passes proof testing, SpaceX can – for the first time – install functional Raptor engines on a full-scale Starship prototype and begin a crucial wet dress rehearsal (WDR) and static fire test campaign.
At the current rate of progress, SpaceX could easily be ready to transport Starship SN3 to the pad within the next week, give or take. Stay tuned for updates as the company works to quickly finish SN3 integration and move onto the testing phase.
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Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted a photo of himself standing with the Optimus production team inside Tesla’s Fremont factory, arms crossed amid workers in hard hats and safety vests. The image captures a pivotal industrial shift: the same facility space once dedicated to building Tesla’s flagship Model S sedan and Model X SUV is now home to the company’s humanoid robot manufacturing line.
Walking the Optimus production line in Fremont pic.twitter.com/ABS0tuRibW
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 1, 2026
Tesla’s Fremont Factory, acquired in 2010 from the former NUMMI joint venture between Toyota and GM, has been the company’s original U.S. manufacturing hub since Model S production began in 2012.
The Model X followed soon thereafter. These premium vehicles offered lower annual volumes, recently around 30,000 combined, compared to the high-volume Model 3 and Model Y lines that continue around the site. Over their combined run, the S and X accounted for roughly 610,000 units.
In late January 2026, during Tesla’s Q4 2025 earnings call, Elon Musk announced the end of Model S and Model X production in Q2 2026. The final vehicles rolled off the line in early May. Rather than retooling for another vehicle, Tesla chose to convert the dedicated S/X assembly area into a dedicated Optimus Gen 3 production line.
Model 3 and Y manufacturing remains unaffected. Tesla’s official Fremont Factory page now lists Optimus alongside the 3 and Y as core products.
The conversion was executed with remarkable speed. After production stopped, crews dismantled the existing vehicle line and installed entirely new modular equipment—including lines sourced from Germany and dozens of sub-lines for actuators, batteries, and other components—in roughly four months.
Musk described the timeline as “insanely fast,” noting it would be unprecedented for any other manufacturer. Initial Optimus output is expected to ramp slowly due to the robot’s roughly 10,000 unique parts and the brand-new production processes involved. The Fremont line targets an eventual capacity of 1 million Optimus units per year.
Tesla isn’t joking about building Optimus at an industrial scale: Here we go
Optimus Development Timeline
- August 19, 2021: Optimus (then called Tesla Bot) formally announced at Tesla’s first AI Day. A concept video showed a person in a suit demonstrating the vision for a general-purpose humanoid capable of dangerous, repetitive, or boring tasks using the same AI architecture as Full Self-Driving.
- 2022: Early prototypes displayed. At the second AI Day in September, semi-functional units demonstrated walking across a stage and basic arm movements
- 2023: September videos showed improved capabilities, including sorting colored blocks, precise limb awareness, and holding a Yoda pose.
- 2024-early 2025: Factory integration videos showed Optimus navigating workspaces and handling objects like battery cells.
- January 2026: Gen 3 mass-production activities began at Fremont, with reports of over 1,000 Gen 3 units already operating inside the factory for real-world learning and AI training
- April 2026: Musk confirms Optimus production on converted Fremont line would begin in late July or August 2026. The Gen 3 reveal, originally eyed for Q1, was pushed closer to production start. A second, much larger Optimus factory at Giga Texas is under construction, with volume production targeted for Summer 2027 and long-term capacity of 10 million units annually
- July 1, 2026: Musk’s on-site visit and team photo confirm the Optimus line is operational and the transition is actively progressing
Tesla positions Optimus as potentially its largest project ever, leveraging vertical integration, AI expertise, and car-like manufacturing know-how to scale humanoid robots first for its own factories and later for broader industrial and consumer use.
The Fremont conversion serves as a critical proving ground for this ambitious new chapter in Tesla’s already-rich history.
Investor's Corner
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
Tesla short seller Michael Burry, the subject of the film “The Big Short,” where he was portrayed by Steve Carell, has revealed he has opened a new bet against the stock.
In a new update to his Substack newsletter in a post titled “Trading Post June 30, 2026,” Burry revealed a new set of bets against Tesla, Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials Inc., and the iShares Semiconductor ETF.
In regard to Tesla, Burry wrote:
“And finally I shorted Tesla at 416.22. Happy it jumped back to this level.”
This means Burry likely opened his new short position after the company’s recent rally on Wall Street, which saw Tesla shares sink in mid-May, only to recover to well over the $400 mark. Currently, shares trade at around $427.
The company saw a big Tuesday as shares climbed considerably, over 10 percent. The size of the Tesla short was not provided, nor did Burry give any information on the position’s structure, the number of shares, dollar value, or whether options were used in the short.
The Tesla and SpaceX merger everyone is talking about is quietly building
Over the years, Burry has been one of the more vocal critics of Tesla, calling its share price “media inflated,” and saying it was “ridiculously overvalued” as recently as December.
The company has largely transitioned away from being known as an automotive company and instead is much more widely regarded as an AI play, mostly due to its Full Self-Driving efforts, Optimus robot development, and data collection related to both.
This has not pulled those skeptics away from being vocal about their distaste for how Tesla is valued, but there’s no denying that the company is a global force in many things, including sustainable energy, automotive, and AI.
Wedbush Securities is initiating stock coverage on SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX), marking the first comments on the company since it went public several weeks ago. Wedbush and its analyst handling coverage, Dan Ives, are widely bullish on fellow Musk company Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA).
Ives wrote his first note initiating coverage of SpaceX shares on Wednesday with a $190 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating. The firm believes the company is well positioned off of its IPO because of its wide array of projects, including AI compute power and infrastructure, connectivity projects, and launches.
“We view SpaceX as one of the most differentiated assets within the tech market with a strong footprint across its three core markets, with Starlink driving success with connectivity,” Ives wrote, “Starship launches leading to a demand flywheel and increasing deal flow for its Colossus clusters.”
Elon Musk called it Epic: The full story of SpaceX’s Starship Flight 12
Wedbush leans heavily on Starlink, which they say is the “profitability driver given the strength of its recurring revenue base of ~12 million subscribers as of June 5th.” Ives believes Starlink is still in the “early innings” of penetrating the global telecommunications and broadband market, as it only holds less than a 1 percent share. However, this number is sure to increase over time.
It also highlights the importance of Starship, which it says is an “essential layer” of SpaceX’s overall success. SpaceX developing and displaying the ability to reuse rockets is a major cost and reliability advantage “as it reduces the necessary hardware launch costs while generating a feedback loop for future flights to improve their launch flight rate without accelerating capex spend.”
Finally, SpaceX’s recent AI/Compute projects are also very elementary, Ives writes. It is worth mentioning Wedbush said its $190 price target is derived from a valuation forecast that sees the company yielding roughly $2.48 trillion of implied enterprise value.
There are also some factors that Wedbush did not take into account with its initial coverage. The firm wrote in the note:
“We note that there is optional value coming from Starship’s accelerating scale towards sub-$200/kg unit economics, orbital data centers, and enterprise AI monetization as these factors could drive meaningful upside but these face major hurdles, so we do not take that into account with our valuation.”
SpaceX shares are down just over 2 percent today, trading at around $167 at the time of publication.
Tesla Optimus project fires up as Musk sees production line progress
Tesla gets its latest short from Michael Burry: ‘Happy it jumped back to this level’
