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SpaceX Starship test plans solidify after bad weather delays hop
Around the same time SpaceX was preparing for its 100th Falcon rocket launch, bad Texas weather forced the company to abort its second Starship hop test of the month.
Since that abort, SpaceX’s near-term Starship test plans have begun to solidify, offering a clearer picture of what to expect over the next week or two. Pending better weather at its Boca Chica, Texas test facilities, Starship serial number 6 (SN6) is still first in line and has been preparing for its hop debut ever since the prototype completed a Raptor engine static fire test on August 23rd.
Measuring approximately 30m (~100 ft) tall, SN6 is a full-scale Starship tank and engine section – the bottom ~60% and business end of the reusable orbital spacecraft. Of course, SpaceX has a ways to go before Starship is actually ready for its first orbital test flight, let alone reuse after such a test flight, but the company did take its biggest step yet towards that lofty ambitions with Starship SN5’s successful August 4th hop debut.
Effectively twins, Starship SN5 and SN6 have since been expected to take turns completing “several” hops to improve SpaceX’s familiarity with Starship launch operations and work towards a smooth procedure that can be completed multiple times per day. With SN6 now scheduled to hop no earlier than 8am CDT (UTC-5), September 3rd, 29 days after SN5’s debut, SpaceX still has its work cut out for it.
Nevertheless, SN5’s 150m (~500 ft) hop was the first flight of any kind for a full-scale Starship prototype, as well as the first use of an entirely new landing leg design and Raptor’s first flight in almost a year. In the history of rocket development, there is no precedent for launching and landing a prototype rocket and then repeating the same test with an entirely new prototype less than a month later.
Additionally, most of the 29 days since SN5’s first hop have been spent preparing Starship SN6 for a crucial “cryo proof” qualification test. Had that cryo proof been completed before SN5’s hop debut, SN6 could have been ready to fly as few as ~10 days later. That still leaves SpaceX a long ways away from multiple Starship hops per day but does offer encouragement that flight-proven Starship SN5 could be ready for its second hop not long after the pad is clear.
However, it appears that SpaceX instead plans to follow up SN6’s hop debut with a new ‘test tank’ meant to demonstrate an upgraded Starship “thrust puck” built out of a different steel alloy. Known as Starship SN7.1, the test will follow on the heels of a more traditional tank (SN7) that completed a record-breaking pressure test in June 2020 and proved that Starship would likely be better off with a different steel alloy.
While SN7 was a basic test tank (two domes and a few steel rings), SN7.1 adds a skirt section at its base and replaces the aft dome with a thrust dome. Likely built entirely out of a steel alloy closer to 304L than the 301 SpaceX has used for all prior Starship prototypes, that thrust dome features a new ‘thrust puck’ – the structural element Raptor engines attach to and transmit their thrust through.
Unlike past single tank tests, SN7.1 will be put through something more like a full prototype’s cryo pressure test. SN7.1 will be installed on a launch mount, allowing its skirt clamps to firmly secure the prototype to the stand, itself secured to a concrete slab on the ground. That launch mount also allows SpaceX to install a hydraulic ram designed to mechanically simulate the thrust of 1-3 Raptor engines without the risk involved in an actual static fire. SN7.1 is scheduled to begin testing no earlier than (NET) 8 am CDT (UTC-5), September 6th – just three days after SN6’s next planned hop attempt.
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Elon Musk
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
“And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface,” Musk said.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk dropped a massive bomb about the Cybercab, which is the company’s fully autonomous ride-hailing vehicle that will enter production later this year.
The Cybercab was unveiled back in October 2024 at the company’s “We, Robot” event in Los Angeles, and is among the major catalysts for the company’s growth in the coming years. It is expected to push Tesla into a major growth phase, especially as the automaker is transitioning into more of an AI and Robotics company than anything else.
The Cybercab will enable completely autonomous ride-hailing for Tesla, and although its other vehicles will also be capable of this technology, the Cybercab is slightly different. It will have no steering wheel or pedals, and will allow two occupants to travel from Point A to Point B with zero responsibilities within the car.
Tesla shares epic 2025 recap video, confirms start of Cybercab production
Details on the Cybercab are pretty face value at this point: we know Tesla is enabling 1-2 passengers to ride in it at a time, and this strategy was based on statistics that show most ride-hailing trips have no more than two occupants. It will also have in-vehicle entertainment options accessible from the center touchscreen.
It will also have wireless charging capabilities, which were displayed at “We, Robot,” and there could be more features that will be highly beneficial to riders, offering a full-fledged autonomous experience.
Musk dropped a big hint that there is much more to the Cybercab than what we know, as a post on X said that “there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface.”
And there is so much to this car that is not obvious on the surface
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 2, 2026
As the Cybercab is expected to enter production later this year, Tesla is surely going to include a handful of things they have not yet revealed to the public.
Musk seems to be indicating that some of the features will make it even more groundbreaking, and the idea is to enable a truly autonomous experience from start to finish for riders. Everything from climate control to emergency systems, and more, should be included with the car.
It seems more likely than not that Tesla will make the Cybercab its smartest vehicle so far, as if its current lineup is not already extremely intelligent, user-friendly, and intuitive.
Investor's Corner
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
The Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Longtime Tesla analyst and Deepwater Asset Management Managing Partner Gene Munster has shared his insights on Tesla’s Q4 2025 deliveries. As per the analyst, Tesla’s numbers are actually better than they first appear.
Munster shared his thoughts in a post on his website.
Normalized December Deliveries
Munster noted that Tesla delivered 418k vehicles in the fourth quarter of 2025, slightly below Street expectations of 420k but above the whisper number of 415k. Tesla’s reported 16% year-over-year decline, compared to +7% in September, is largely distorted by the timing of the tax credit expiration, which pulled forward demand.
“Taking a step back, we believe September deliveries pulled forward approximately 55k units that would have otherwise occurred in December or March. For simplicity, we assume the entire pull-forward impacted the December quarter. Under this assumption, September growth would have been down ~5% absent the 55k pull-forward, a Deepwater estimate tied to the credit’s expiration.
“For December deliveries to have declined ~5% year over year would imply total deliveries of roughly 470k. Subtracting the 55k units pulled into September results in an implied December delivery figure of approximately 415k. The reported 418k suggests that, when normalizing for the tax credit timing, quarter-over-quarter growth has been consistently down ~5%. Importantly, this ~5% decline represents an improvement from the ~13% declines seen in both the March and June 2025 quarters.“
Tesla’s United States market share
Munster also estimated that Q4 as a whole might very well show a notable improvement in Tesla’s market share in the United States.
“Over the past couple of years, based on data from Cox Automotive, Tesla has been losing U.S. EV market share, declining to just under 50%. Based on data for October and November, Cox estimates that total U.S. EV sales were down approximately 35%, compared to Tesla’s just reported down 16% for the full quarter. For the first two months of the quarter, Cox reported Tesla market share of roughly a 65% share, up from under 50% in the September quarter.
“While this data excludes December, the quarter as a whole is likely to show a material improvement in Tesla’s U.S. EV market share.“
Elon Musk
Tesla analyst breaks down delivery report: ‘A step in the right direction’
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026,” Ives wrote.
Tesla analyst Dan Ives of Wedbush released a new note on Friday morning just after the company released production and delivery figures for Q4 and the full year of 2025, stating that the numbers, while slightly underwhelming, are “better than feared” and as “a step in the right direction.”
Tesla reported production of 434,358 and deliveries of 418,227 for the fourth quarter, while 1,654,667 vehicles were produced and 1,636,129 cars were delivered for the full year.
Tesla releases Q4 and FY 2025 vehicle delivery and production report
Interestingly, the company posted its own consensus figures that were compiled from various firms on its website a few days ago, where expectations were set at 1,640,752 cars for the year. Tesla fell about 4,000 units short of that. One of the areas where Tesla excelled was energy deployments, which totaled 46.7 GWh for the year.
🚨 Wedbush’s Dan Ives has released a new note on Tesla $TSLA:
“Tesla announced its FY4Q25 delivery numbers this morning coming in at 418.2k vehicles slightly below the company’s consensus delivery estimate of 422.9k but much better than the whisper numbers of ~410k as the…
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) January 2, 2026
In terms of vehicle deliveries, Ives writes that Tesla certainly has some things to work through if it wants to return to growth in that aspect, especially with the loss of the $7,500 tax credit in the U.S. and “continuous headwinds” for the company in Europe.
However, Ives also believes that, given the delivery numbers, which were on par with expectations, Tesla is positioned well for a strong 2026, especially with its AI focus, Robotaxi and Cybercab development, and energy:
“This will be viewed as better than feared deliveries and a step in the right direction for the Tesla story heading into 2026. We look forward to hearing more at the company’s 4Q25 call on January 28th. AI Valuation – The Focus Throughout 2026. We believe Tesla could reach a $2 trillion market cap over the coming year and, in a bull case scenario, $3 trillion by the end of 2026…as full-scale volume production begins with the autonomous and robotics roadmap…The company has started to test the all-important Cybercab in Austin over the past few weeks, which is an incremental step towards launching in 2026 with important volume production of Cybercabs starting in April/May, which remains the golden goose in unlocking TSLA’s AI valuation.”
It’s no secret that for the past several years, Tesla’s vehicle delivery numbers have been the main focus of investors and analysts have looked at them as an indicator of company health to a certain extent. The problem with that narrative in 2025 and 2026 is that Tesla is now focusing more on the deployment of Full Self-Driving, its Optimus project, AI development, and Cybercab.
While vehicle deliveries still hold importance, it is more crucial to note that Tesla’s overall environment as a business relies on much more than just how many cars are purchased. That metric, to a certain extent, is fading in importance in the grand scheme of things, but it will never totally disappear.
Ives and Wedbush maintained their $600 price target and an ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk drops massive bomb about Cybercab
Tesla Q4 delivery numbers are better than they initially look: analyst
