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SpaceX targeting 100 launches in 2023
CEO Elon Musk says that SpaceX is aiming to complete up to 100 launches in 2023 while the company continues to set records in 2022.
In the history of orbital spaceflight, no family of rockets – let alone a single variant like Falcon 9 – has completed more than 61 successful launches in one calendar year. The cadence target Musk is suggesting is unprecedented and would be an extraordinary challenge even for SpaceX, a company that just completed its 50th successful Falcon 9 launch in a little over 12 months. However, it’s less impossible than it sounds.
After a few years of stagnation at a cadence of roughly 15-20 launches per year from 2017 through 2019, and an impressive doubling from 2019 to 2020 as Starlink entered its buildout phase, SpaceX effectively flipped a switch in 2021. 2020 appears to have been a sort of trial run, demonstrating that SpaceX was able to launch one Falcon 9 rocket every two weeks. At 26 launches for the year, it broke SpaceX’s previous record – 21 launches, set in 2018 – by almost 25%. But something changed in 2021.
In the first half of the year, SpaceX launched 20 times, demonstrating an unexpected 50% improvement over 2020’s annual cadence. In the second half of the year, SpaceX had two strange gaps of almost two months each, during which it didn’t once. In the other two months, though, SpaceX launched 11 times, effectively demonstrating another launch cadence improvement of more than 50% over the first half of the year. Finally, SpaceX completed 6 of those 11 launches in a period of 4 weeks near the end of the year – an annual cadence of 78 launches if sustained for a full year.
Thus far, 2022 has been an eight-month extension of the last few weeks of 2021. SpaceX even appears to have improved upon itself again, accelerating its launch cadence throughout the year. In the first half of the year, SpaceX managed 27 Falcon 9 launches, nearly beating the 31-launch record it set in 2021 in half the time and demonstrating an annual cadence of up to 54 launches per year if sustained.
Instead of continuing that already impressive pace in the second half of the year, SpaceX launched six times in July and another six times in August, sustaining an annualized cadence of 72 launches per year for two full months. At the moment, that could be considered a fluke. But if SpaceX manages another six launches in September, which is the plan, it can likely be deemed a new normal for Falcon 9 launch cadence.
From 60 to 100
To achieve 100 Falcon launches in 2023, SpaceX would need to find a way to launch an average of eight times per month, an improvement of 33% over the six-launch months the company appears to be increasingly comfortable with. Likely thanks to intentional planning and overengineering done years in advance of the payoff, SpaceX’s fleet of Falcon launch pads and recovery ships – drone ship landing platforms especially – appear to be capable of achieving that lofty cadence goal.
Assuming all three pads were able to consistently operate at their fastest demonstrated turnaround times with little to no downtime, they could theoretically support around 115 launches per year. SpaceX drone ship availability is another concern, but the current fleet of three ships can theoretically support 100 Falcon 9 landings in one year if each ship is able to recover one booster every 11 days. Of course, achieving such tight margins would require extremely inflexible scheduling and leave almost no margin for error – perhaps just a day or less per launch, on average.
Without significant upgrades, either feat would be extremely impressive on its own. Stacking those challenges, launching 100 times in 2023 would require an extraordinary effort and a good amount of luck. But it’s far from impossible. Gven the abrupt and impressive progress SpaceX has made and continues to make in 2021 and 2022, it’s also a reasonable goal: far from easy but well within reach with some moderate improvements.
Finally, Musk’s calculus may include a number of launches of SpaceX’s next-generation Starship rocket, which would make the task even more achievable for Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy. Time will tell, and SpaceX’s activity in the last four months of 2022 will make it clear whether 2023’s 100-launch target is truly feasible.
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Tesla FSD and Robotaxis are making people aware how bad human drivers are
These observations really show that Tesla’s focus on autonomy would result in safer roads for everyone.
Tesla FSD and the Robotaxi network are becoming so good in their self-driving performance, they are starting to highlight just how bad humans really are at driving.
This could be seen in several observations from the electric vehicle community.
Robotaxis are better than Uber, actually
Tesla’s Robotaxi service is only available in Austin and the Bay Area for now, but those who have used the service have generally been appreciative of its capabilities and performance. Some Robotaxi customers have observed that the service is simply so much more affordable than Uber, and its driving is actually really good.
One veteran Tesla owner, @BLKMDL3, recently noted that the Robotaxi service has become better than Uber simply because FSD now drives better than some human drivers. Apart from the fact that Robotaxis allow riders to easily sync their phones to the rear display, the vehicles generally provide a significantly more comfortable ride than their manually-driven counterparts from Uber.
FSD is changing the narrative, one ride at a time
It appears that FSD V14 really is something special. The update has received wide acclaim from users since it was released, and the positive reactions are still coming. This was highlighted in a recent post from Tesla owner Travis Nicolette, who shared a recent experience with FSD. As per the Tesla owner, he was quite surprised as his car was able to accomplish a U-turn in a way that exceeded human drivers.
Yet another example of FSD’s smooth and safe driving was showcased in a recent video, which showed a safety monitor of a Bay Area Robotaxi falling asleep in the driver’s seat. In any other car, a driver falling asleep at the wheel could easily result in a grave accident, but thanks to FSD, both the safety monitor and the passengers remained safe.
These observations, if any, really show that Tesla’s focus on autonomy would result in safer roads for everyone. As per the IIHS, there were 40,901 deaths from motor vehicle crashes in the United States in 2023. The NHTSA also estimated that in 2017, 91,000 police-reported crashes involved drowsy drivers. These crashes led to an estimated 50,000 people injured and 800 deaths. FSD could lower all these tragic statistics by a notable margin.
News
Tesla lands approval for Robotaxi operation in third U.S. state
On Tuesday, Tesla officially received regulatory approval from the State of Arizona, making it the third state for the company to receive approval in.
Tesla has officially landed approval to operate its Robotaxi ride-hailing service in its third U.S. state, as it has landed a regulatory green light from the State of Arizona’s Department of Transportation.
Tesla has been working to expand to new U.S. states after launching in Texas and California earlier this year. Recently, it said it was hoping to land in Nevada, Arizona, and Florida, expanding to five new cities in those three states.
On Tuesday, Tesla officially received regulatory approval from the State of Arizona, making it the third state for the company to receive approval in:
BREAKING: Tesla has officially received approval from the Arizona Department of Transportation to launch its Robotaxi service on public roads in the state!
I just confirmed directly with the Arizona DOT that @Tesla applied for a Transportation Network Company permit on Nov 13th.… pic.twitter.com/iKbwfGfiju
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) November 18, 2025
Tesla has also been working on approvals in Nevada and Florida, and it has also had Robotaxi test mules spotted in Pennsylvania.
The interesting thing about the Arizona approval is the fact that Tesla has not received an approval for any specific city; it appears that it can operate statewide. However, early on, Tesla will likely confine its operation to just one or two cities to keep things safe and controlled.
Over the past few months, Robotaxi mules have been spotted in portions of Phoenix and surrounding cities, such as Scottsdale, as the company has been attempting to cross off all the regulatory Ts that it is confronted with as it attempts to expand the ride-hailing service.
It appears the company will be operating it similarly to how it does in Texas, which differs from its California program. In Austin, there is no Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat, unless the route requires freeway travel. In California, there is always a Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat. However, this is unconfirmed.
Earlier today, Tesla enabled its Robotaxi app to be utilized for ride-hailing for anyone using the iOS platform.
News
Tesla ride-hailing Safety Monitor dozes off during Bay Area ride
We won’t try to blame the camera person for the incident, because it clearly is not their fault. But it seems somewhat interesting that they did not try to wake the driver up and potentially contact Tesla immediately to alert them of the situation.
A Tesla Robotaxi Safety Monitor appeared to doze off during a ride in the California Bay Area, almost ironically proving the need for autonomous vehicles.
The instance was captured on camera and posted to Reddit in the r/sanfrancisco subreddit by u/ohmichael. They wrote that they have used Tesla’s ride-hailing service in the Bay Area in the past and had pleasant experiences.
However, this one was slightly different. They wrote:
“I took a Tesla Robotaxi in SF just over a week ago. I have used the service a few times before and it has always been great. I actually felt safer than in a regular rideshare.
This time was different. The safety driver literally fell asleep at least three times during the ride. Each time the car’s pay attention safety alert went off and the beeping is what woke him back up.
I reported it through the app to the Robotaxi support team and told them I had videos, but I never got a response.
I held off on posting anything because I wanted to give Tesla a chance to respond privately. It has been more than a week now and this feels like a serious issue for other riders too.
Has anyone else seen this happen?”
My Tesla Robotaxi “safety” driver fell asleep
byu/ohmichael insanfrancisco
The driver eventually woke up after prompts from the vehicle, but it is pretty alarming to see someone like this while they’re ultimately responsible for what happens with the ride.
We won’t try to blame the camera person for the incident, because it clearly is not their fault. But it seems somewhat interesting that they did not try to wake the driver up and potentially contact Tesla immediately to alert them of the situation.
They should have probably left the vehicle immediately.
Tesla’s ride-hailing service in the Bay Area differs from the one that is currently active in Austin, Texas, due to local regulations. In Austin, there is no Safety Monitor in the driver’s seat unless the route requires the highway.
Tesla plans to remove the Safety Monitors in Austin by the end of the year.
Tesla FSD and Robotaxis are making people aware how bad human drivers are
Tesla lands approval for Robotaxi operation in third U.S. state
