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SpaceX targeting salvo of three Falcon 9 launches this week

(Richard Angle | SpaceX)

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SpaceX is in the final stages of preparing a trio of Falcon 9 rockets for a set of launches scheduled less than two days apart.

The potential hat trick will likely be the last opportunity for a salvo of Falcon launches before the end of 2022. As a disclaimer, while unofficial launch dates (derived from regulatory documents or well-sourced public manifests) were consistently close to actual launch dates for most of 2022, that ceased to be the case when SpaceX began experiencing an abrupt uptick in launch delays over the last two months. As a result, Falcon launch dates – even once confirmed by SpaceX – should be assumed to be a bit more uncertain than usual until it’s clear that that trend has died down.

Nonetheless, all available signs indicate that SpaceX and its customers are moving forward with plans for three back-to-back launches before the end of the week.

Set to kick off the diverse trio is the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) spacecraft, a roughly $1.2 billion joint mission between NASA and French space agency CNES. Thanks in part to the COVID pandemic, which has and continues to impact large swaths of NASA and the aerospace industry, NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory completed its portion of SWOT around 9% over budget and eight months behind schedule [PDF] since mission formulation began in 2012. Over a similar time scale, several other NASA missions have experienced cost increases of 10-100%, generally reflecting well on SWOT’s management.

SWOT, a roughly two-ton (~4400 lb) satellite, is designed to conduct the first global survey of all surface water on Earth using two large synthetic aperture radar (SAR) antennas and a conventional radar altimeter. At a cost of roughly $112 million, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch SWOT to low Earth orbit (LEO) no earlier than (NET) 3:46 am PST (11:46 UTC) on Thursday, December 15th. SpaceX successfully tested SWOT’s Falcon 9 well in advance on December 10th. The rocket was then returned to the company’s hangar at Vandenberg Space Force Base (VSFB) Space Launch Complex 4E for payload installation before rolling back to the pad on December 13th.

The light satellite and low target orbit will allow Falcon 9’s booster to return to the launch site and land at SpaceX’s LZ-4 landing zone, precluding the need for a drone ship recovery.

SWOT is encapsulated in Falcon 9’s payload fairing. (NASA)
Falcon 9 rolls out for NASA and CNES’ SWOT mission. (NASA/Keegan Barber)

Up next, another Falcon 9 rocket is scheduled to launch the first two of eleven Boeing-built O3b mPOWER communication satellites for operator SES as early as 4:21 pm EST (21:21 UTC), Friday, December 16th. After lifting off from SpaceX’s Cape Canaveral Space Force Station (CCSFS) LC-40 pad, Falcon 9 is set to launch the roughly 3.4-ton (~7500 lb) pair of satellites to a medium Earth orbit (MEO) with an altitude of 7825 kilometers (4862 mi).

It’s unclear what orbit Falcon 9 will launch the satellites to, but the rocket’s booster will land on drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas (ASOG) some 700 kilometers (~435 mi) downrange, indicating that it will need as much performance as the rocket can give. ASOG departed Port Canaveral on December 11th, confirming that launch preparations are well underway.

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Boeing shipped the first two O3b mPOWER satellites to Florida in early December. (Boeing)

Finally, a third Falcon 9 rocket could launch SpaceX’s first Starlink mission since October 28th as early as 4:54 or 5:13 pm EST (21:54 or 22:13) on December 16th, potentially just 33 or 52 minutes after O3b mPOWER 1&2. If the two missions do launch on December 16th, which a reliable source of unofficial information has indicated is not guaranteed, it will smash the US record for back-to-back launches of the same rocket family. Russia’s R-7 rocket family will retain the international crown, however, having launched twice in 25 minutes in 1969.

Starlink 4-37 will lift off from SpaceX’s NASA Kennedy Space Center LC-39A pad, and its Falcon 9 booster will attempt to launch on drone ship Just Read The Instructions (JRTI). JRTI departed Port Canaveral on December 12th.

Following Starlink 4-37, SpaceX has at least two more launches tentatively scheduled before the end of 2022. NextSpaceflight.com reports that SpaceX could launch its sixth Transporter rideshare mission from Florida on December 27th, and two Israeli EROS-C3 Earth observation satellites out of California on December 29th. However, it’s worth noting that in the almost 17-year history of SpaceX Falcon operations, the company has never launched a rocket after December 23rd or before January 6th. Transporter-6 and EROS-C3 – SpaceX’s 60th and 61st launches of the year – would have to break through that apparent firewall to launch when they are currently scheduled.

Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Autonomous vehicle red tape gets slashed by Trump Administration

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Credit: Zoox

The Trump Administration today made several key moves to help with the deployment of autonomous vehicles by cutting overreaching red tape that has stifled growth and innovation for years.

The moves, which were put forth by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), aim to grant temporary exemptions to at least one company currently, although that could expand in the coming months. Additionally, it will work with organizations to develop standards and a sound but efficient regulatory landscape.

Zoox is the only company mentioned explicitly by the Trump Administration in its press release announcing the new terms today. They will receive a temporary two-year exemption that will allow the commercial deployment of up to 2,500 vehicles annually for two years.

There is a potential exemption for Robomart, Inc., which “requests a temporary exemption from certain FMVSS No. 500 requirements for a low-speed vehicle operated by an ADS without a human driver onboard. NHTSA will publish a separate notice seeking public comment on its merits once the initial evaluation is complete,” the agency said.

Here are the five new terms that Secretary Sean Duffy has implemented through the NHTSA today:

  1. Allow Zoox to commercially deploy its robotaxis through a temporary exemption.
    This temporary exemption will allow the commercial deployment of up to 2,500 vehicles annually for two years, subject to an enhanced, adaptable oversight structure that can evolve as Zoox’s technology advances.
  2. Accelerate development of first-ever AV performance standards through a partnership with SAE Industry Technologies Consortia (ITC).
    This partnership will fund a three-year, $5 million “A2SCEND” consortium, bringing together experts to gather data and accelerate creation of the first-ever AV performance standards. This project will inform a single national standard for AV safety to eliminate the patchwork regulatory landscape that has stifled innovation for years.
  3. Publish an interim final rule that allows vehicles manufactured prior to an exemption to be eligible for a commercial deployment exemption.
    This rule will modernize the application process and improve access to exemptions for innovators, including AV developers, by granting the NHTSA Administrator the discretion to apply temporary exemptions to vehicles manufactured prior to the effective date of an exemption grant.
  4. Streamline the application process for Part 555 exemptions by updating guidance and soliciting feedback from the public.
    By updating the Part 555 exemption process—which allows automakers to temporarily sell a limited number of non-compliant vehicles, primarily to test new technologies—NHTSA is aiming to create a more flexible oversight structure for exemptions and summarize recent AV framework activities, including expanded exemption pathways, streamlined crash reporting, and ongoing efforts to modernize Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards (FMVSS).
  5. Establish a new Federal Docket for public feedback on NHTSA’s updated safe AV development and deployment guidance.
    NHTSA is updating its technical guidance for AVs for the first time since 2017—focusing on key safety areas like emergency responder interactions, safety management systems, remote assistance, and post-crash behavior to help the industry scale up driverless deployments safely.

Additionally, the NHTSA said it has modernized some safety standards by proposing updates to:

  • FMVSS 102 – Transmission shifting
  • FMVSS 103/104 – Windshield defrosting and wiping
  • FMVSS 110 – Tire placards
  • FMVSS 135 – Braking systems
  • FMVSS 101 – Controls and displays
  • FMVSS 108 – Vehicle lighting
  • FMVSS 111 – Mirrors and rearview display
  • FMVSS 126 – Electronic stability control systems
  • FMVSS 201/208 – Sun visors and warning labels

These changes aim to make the regulatory process for autonomous vehicles more streamlined and efficient, which could help the U.S. gain dominance over autonomous vehicle systems moving forward.

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Elon Musk has a crazy prediction about AI in two years

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Daniel Oberhaus, CC BY-SA 4.0 , via Wikimedia Commons

Elon Musk is, in many respects, one of the biggest and most influential figures in modern-day artificial intelligence.

Given that Tesla, SpaceX, and xAI are all looked at in their respective fields as leaders to an extent, each of them has a heavy influence on the future of AI, even though two of them are not thought of, at face value, as AI companies.

Musk has grand expectations for what is to come with AI, not only as a form of assistance to make human lives easier, but to make humans multiplanetary and solve some of the biggest issues that face us today. But even he is astounded by AI’s pace of progress.

He believes that in two years, AI will be so mind-blowing it might be unrecognizable.

This progress can be seen in a variety of ways, but perhaps the most popular way people have shown AI’s progress, especially on social media, is through an incredibly arbitrary way of watching Will Smith eat spaghetti:

This is a great way to show people how AI is improving, especially from a perspective that examines how it can manufacture images and video from prompts. AI is an incredibly complex concept, however, and it goes much deeper than Will Smith eating Italian food.

Musk’s most widely adopted method of AI is likely Tesla Full Self-Driving, which impacts millions of people as they utilize it to increase safety with their travel. Musk has routinely pushed incredibly aggressive timelines for self-driving, especially unsupervised.

Perhaps this perspective is why he feels that things will be solved in a timeframe that is much more aggressive than most of us would think. Regardless, the progress of AI is moving fast, and it seems that Musk’s expectations for it could be high.

But if it can actually achieve full-length motion pictures and even more realistic production value, it will be hard to distinguish between reality and AI very soon.

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Tesla just built it 10 millionth car

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla just officially confirmed it has built its 10 millionth car, a major milestone for the company that started producing sustainable electric powertrains less than two decades ago.

In that time, Tesla has truly revolutionized the automotive industry, disrupting the idea of what a car should be, how it should be fueled, and how it truly impacts day-to-day life.

Tesla achieved this feat across four production facilities: the Fremont Factory in Fremont, California, Gigafactory Shanghai in China, Gigafactory Berlin in Germany, and Gigafactory Texas in Austin, Texas.

The 10 millionth vehicle was a Diamond Black Model Y.

Over the course of the past roughly 18 years, Tesla has evolved its lineup from a sporty sedan built on a Lotus body to a lineup of various body styles, performance metrics, and other characteristics that make each one unique.

This is an incredible achievement for a company that is young compared to what it goes up against. When Tesla entered the automotive market, Ford, GM, and Stellantis widely dominated the playing field. Since then, Tesla has caused such a disruption that these three massive brands had to scramble to create EV projects of their own.

Despite their best efforts, they have not been able to match the prowess or the effectiveness of Tesla. They are all reliant on Tesla’s charging infrastructure, their software is inferior, and their self-driving projects are elementary in comparison.

Tesla felt its fair share of growing pains over the years as well. As recent at 2019, there were complaints about build quality, paint quality, and overall luxuriousness. These things have all been improved upon through the company’s maturity, and these strides in quality have led to this 10 million vehicle production achievement, something that other small-and-scrappy EV makers will hope to accomplish one day.

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