For the fourth time in nine months, SpaceX has docked a Dragon spacecraft to the International Space Station with a second Dragon already present at the crewed orbital laboratory.
Launched Saturday on a Falcon 9 rocket after a one-day weather delay, SpaceX’s first upgraded Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft gradually boosted and tweaked its orbit over the course of ~30 hours, looping around the Earth 20+ times before docking with the ISS more than half an hour ahead of schedule. Dragon’s Monday, August 30th arrival marked cargo capsule C208’s second space station docking in nine months, smashing SpaceX and the world’s turnaround record for a reusable orbital space capsule – of which Dragons are the only still flying.
SpaceX’s first twice-flown Crew Dragon was there to greet the first twice-flown Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft when it docked, having spent the last four months in orbit in support of NASA’s second operational commercial crew mission (Crew-2). A similar instance of a pair Dragons meeting in space is likely to occur at least two more times before the end of 2021.
The first two-Dragons-one-ISS instance occurred just nine months ago when the very same Cargo Dragon 2 spacecraft (capsule C208) rendezvoused and docked with the ISS with SpaceX’s Crew-1 Crew Dragon already attached. At the time, in a number of press conferences and public statements centered around the launch of Crew-1 and CRS-21, SpaceX repeatedly hinted at just how prolific a year 2021 would be for Dragon and it’s hard to argue that the company was exaggerating.
Indeed, exactly as SpaceX foretold, Dragon spacecraft have maintained a continuous presence in orbit and repeatedly operated side by side at the ISS since Crew-1’s November 2021 launch. For the majority of NASA’s Commercial Crew Program development, that degree of continuous, single-provider operations was never meant to happen. SpaceX’s upgraded Cargo Dragon, for example, is one of two independent Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) spacecraft that regularly resupply the space station, ensuring redundancy in the event that one spacecraft or rocket runs into major issues. A third CRS vehicle – Sierra Nevada’s Dream Chaser spaceplane – will also begin cargo deliveries sometime next year.
NASA’s Commercial Crew Program was structured in the same way, with Boeing and SpaceX serving as two redundant crew transport providers. Of course, things didn’t go exactly according to plan and Boeing – despite receiving 60% (~$2B) more funding than SpaceX – has suffered numerous catastrophic issues in recent years, nearly dooming its Starliner spacecraft’s first uncrewed launch in December 2019 and ultimately delaying the company by two or more years.
After further issues delayed Starliner’s uncrewed do-over test flight (OFT-2) from August to late 2021 or early 2022, it’s entirely possible that SpaceX will operate as NASA’s sole crew transport solution for more than 18 months before Boeing flies a single astronaut. In other words, it’s likely that SpaceX will need to maintain the extraordinary cadence of Dragon launches demonstrated in 2021 well into 2022, and possibly even 2023. Since November 2020, SpaceX has launched three Cargo Dragon 2 resupply missions and eight astronauts on two Crew Dragons.
Another two NASA Dragon missions – Crew-3 and CRS-24 – are scheduled to launch in October and December 2021 and SpaceX’s first fully private Inspiration4 Crew Dragon launch could happen as early as September 15th. So long as Boeing’s Starliner is unable to fulfill its crew transport role, all future SpaceX Crew and Cargo missions for NASA – including Crew-3 and CRS-24 – will continue to see one Dragon meet another at the ISS. All told, barring possible delays to CRS-24, SpaceX is on track to launch eight Dragons – four Crew and four Cargo; 16 astronauts and 11 tons of space station supplies – in 13 months.
If Crew Dragon and Cargo Dragon 2 are considered to be two variants of the same Dragon 2 spacecraft, the only other instance in history where another orbital spacecraft came close to eight successful orbital launches in ~13 months was NASA’s Gemini Program, which completed eight crewed test flights in ~14 months in 1965 and 1966.
NASA’s Apollo spacecraft also completed six successful flights (5 crewed, 1 uncrewed) in 13 months in 1968 and 1969. Russian Soyuz vehicles – the most prolific crewed spacecraft in history – have also successfully flown 8 times in 13 months and 9 times in 14 months in the 1970s. Put simply, SpaceX’s Dragon program is now singlehandedly executing at or above the level of the two most prolific national space programs in history at funding peaks that haven’t been touched since and for a fraction of the cost.
Elon Musk
Music City Loop could highlight The Boring Company’s real disruption
The real story behind the tunneling startup’s Nashville tunnel project is the company’s targeted $25 million per mile construction cost.
Recent commentary on social media has highlighted what could very well prove to be The Boring Company’s real disruption.
The analysis was shared by tech watcher Aakash Gupta on social media platform X, where he argued that the real story behind the tunneling startup’s Nashville tunnel project is the company’s targeted $25 million per mile construction cost.
According to Gupta’s breakdown, Nashville’s 2018 light rail proposal was priced at roughly $200 million per mile. New York’s East Side Access project reportedly cost about $3.5 billion per mile, while Los Angeles Metro expansion projects have approached $1 billion per mile.
By comparison, The Boring Company has stated it can construct 13 miles of twin tunnels in the Music City Loop for between $240 million and $300 million total. That implies a cost near $25 million per mile, or roughly a 95% reduction from industry averages cited in the post.
Several technical departures from conventional tunneling allow the Boring Company to lower its costs, from its smaller 12-foot diameter tunnels to its fully electric Prufrock machines that are designed to mine continuously with no personnel inside the tunnel and their capability to “porpoise” for easy launch and retrieval.
Tesla and Space CEO Elon Musk responded to the post on X, stating simply that “Tunnels are so underrated.”
The Boring Company has seen some momentum as of late, with the company recently signing a construction contract in Dubai and the Universal Orlando Loop progressing. Recent reports have also pointed to tunnels potentially being constructed to solve traffic congestion issues near the Giga Nevada area.
While The Boring Company’s tunnels have so far been used for Loop systems publicly for now, Elon Musk recently noted that the tunneling startup’s underground passages would not be limited only to ride-hailing vehicles.
In a reply to a post on X which discussed the specifications of the Music City Loop, Musk clarified that “any fully autonomous electric cars can use the tunnels.” This suggests that vehicles potentially running systems like FSD Supervised, even if they are not Teslas, could be used in systems like the Music City Loop in the future.
Elon Musk
SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket
The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.
Recent projections have outlined how a potential $1.75 trillion SpaceX IPO could generate historic returns for early investors. The projections suggest the offering would not only become the largest IPO in history but could also result in unprecedented windfalls for some of the company’s key investors.
The estimates were shared by the official Polymarket Money account on social media platform X.
As noted in a Polymarket Money analysis, Elon Musk invested $100 million into SpaceX in 2002 and currently owns approximately 42% of the company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation following SpaceX’s potential $1.75 trillion IPO, that stake would be worth roughly $735 billion.
Such a figure would dramatically expand Musk’s net worth. When combined with his holdings in Tesla Inc. and other ventures, a public debut at that level could position him as the world’s first trillionaire, depending on market conditions at the time of listing.
The Bloomberg Billionaires Index currently lists Elon Musk with a net worth of $666 billion, though a notable portion of this is tied to his TSLA stock. Tesla currently holds a market cap of $1.51 trillion, and Elon Musk’s currently holds about 13% to 15% of the company’s outstanding common stock.
Founders Fund, co-founded by Peter Thiel, invested $20 million in SpaceX in 2008. Polymarket Money estimates the firm owns between 1.5% and 3% of the private space company. At a $1.75 trillion valuation, that range would translate to approximately $26.25 billion to $52.5 billion in value.
That return would represent one of the most significant venture capital outcomes in modern Silicon Valley history, with a growth of 131,150% to 262,400%.
Alphabet Inc., Google’s parent company, invested $900 million into SpaceX in 2015 and is estimated to hold between 6% and 7% of the private space firm. At the projected IPO valuation, that stake could be worth between $105 billion and $122.5 billion. That’s a growth of 11,566% to 14,455%.
Other major backers highlighted in the post include Fidelity Investments, Baillie Gifford, Valor Equity Partners, Bank of America, and Andreessen Horowitz, each potentially sitting on multibillion-dollar gains.
News
Tesla expands global FSD (Supervised) testing with Abu Dhabi trials
The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.
Tesla has started its first Full Self-Driving (Supervised) road trials in Abu Dhabi under the oversight of the Integrated Transport Centre, also known as Abu Dhabi Mobility.
The program marks the emirate’s first formal testing framework for Tesla’s supervised autonomous driving technology.
FSD (Supervised) road trials are being conducted with the support of the Smart and Autonomous Systems Council and in coordination with the Legislation Lab at the General Secretariat of the UAE Cabinet.
Dr. Abdulla Hamad AlGhfeli, Acting Director General of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility), highlighted the agency’s regulatory role in overseeing the FSD (Supervised) tests in a press release.
“The supervision of the Integrated Transport Centre (Abu Dhabi Mobility) over the commencement of Tesla’s advanced autonomous driving technology tests reflects its regulatory and legislative role. These tests represent a qualitative step to evaluate the technology’s performance in a real-world operating environment and to collect the necessary data to verify its readiness before any future expansion in usage.
“Through this organized framework, and in cooperation with strategic partners, we seek to achieve a balance between supporting innovation and encouraging the adoption of smart solutions on one hand and ensuring the safety of road users on the other, in line with the emirate’s direction to develop an advanced, safe, and sustainable transport system,” he said.
Tesla is putting a lot of effort into expanding the rollout of FSD (Supervised) to territories outside in the United States. During a recent interview with Giga Berlin plant manager Andre Thierig, Musk stated that Tesla is looking to secure approval for FSD (Supervised) in the Netherlands this coming March.
“Tesla has the most advanced real-world AI, and hopefully, it will be approved soon in Europe. We’re told by the authorities that March 20th, it’ll be approved in the Netherlands,’ what I was told. Hopefully, that date remains the same. But I think people in Europe are going to be pretty blown away by how good the Tesla car AI is in being able to drive,” Musk stated.
Music City Loop could highlight The Boring Company’s real disruption
SpaceX IPO could push Elon Musk’s net worth past $1 trillion: Polymarket
