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SpaceX eyes two Falcon 9 rocket launches, landings in eleven hours [update: just Starlink]

SpaceX is on track to launch two Falcon 9 rockets in less than eleven hours. (SpaceX)

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Update #2: The GPS III SV04 mission’s Falcon 9 rocket aborted its October 2nd launch attempt just two seconds before liftoff. SpaceX CEO Elon Musk says the vehicle’s flight computer detected an “unexpected pressure rise in the turbomachinery gas generator” of at least one of new booster B1062’s nine Merlin 1D engines. Given that Musk explicitly pointed to propulsion hardware rather than an out-of-family sensor, a substantial delay is likely.

Update: For unknown reasons, SpaceX appears to have delayed the Starlink-12 launch to October 5th. GPS III SV04 is still on track to launch tonight.

SpaceX appears to be targeting two separate Falcon 9 launches less than eleven hours apart after a pad sensor scrubbed the company’s latest Starlink-12 launch attempt.

SpaceX’s 12th operational Starlink launch and 13th overall, the mission is now up to its fourth aborted launch attempt after a weather delay on September 17th, an unspecified delay on September 27th, a weather delay on September 29th, and a ground systems delay on October 1st. Starlink-12 is now scheduled to lift off from Kennedy Space Center Launch Complex 39A (KSC Pad 39A) no earlier than (NET) 8:34 am EDT (12:34 UTC) on Saturday, October 3rd.

Up first, though, is SpaceX’s third upgraded GPS III satellite launch (Space Vehicle 04) for the US military – effectively ready to go since a few days after the Falcon 9 rocket’s September 25th static fire. Delayed from September 29th and 30th by United Launch Alliance’s (ULA) own Delta IV Heavy NROL-44 launch delays, SpaceX has confirmed that Falcon 9 is scheduled to launch GPS III SV04 NET 9:43 pm EDT (1:43 UTC) on Friday, October 2nd.

Two Falcon 9 rockets simultaneously stand vertical at Launch Complexes 40 and 39A. (SpaceX)

The only reason SpaceX is able to even consider attempting both East Coast Falcon 9 launches hours apart is the activation of a second drone ship (formerly based in California) earlier this year. Known as Just Read The Instructions (JRTI), the drone ship was upgraded with expanded power output and stronger thrusters and joined Of Course I Still Love You (OCISLY) in Port Canaveral, Florida. JRTI completed its first East Coast Falcon booster landing in June 2020 and both ships have more or less split recovery attempts in the months since.

Drone ship JRTI returns to Port Canaveral with Falcon 9 booster B1060. (Richard Angle)
Drone ship OCISLY returns to Port Canaveral with Falcon 9 booster B1059. (SpaceX)

While SpaceX could technically launch East Coast missions almost simultaneously by landing one booster at sea and the other on land, the performance required from Falcon 9 for GPS III SV04 and Starlink-12 necessitates drone ship landings for both missions. Coincidentally, the missions’ launch trajectories are extremely similar, meaning that drone ship JRTI (GPS III SV04) and OCISLY (Starlink-12) are stationed just ~50 km (~30 mi) apart in the Atlantic Ocean.

Twin recovery ships GO Ms. Tree and GO Ms. Chief – outfitted with giant nets – will also be present at at least one of the two missions, each attempting to catch one of Falcon 9’s payload fairing halves.

Twin fairing recovery ships GO Ms. Tree and GO Ms. Chief will also attempt fairing catches. (SpaceX)

If both missions launch on schedule and Falcon 9 boosters B1062 (GPS III SV04) and B1058 successful land aboard their respective drone ships, SpaceX could end up with two drone ships – both carrying Falcon boosters – returning to Port Canaveral at almost the same time, possibly creating the first Falcon booster traffic jam.

Weather is currently 70% and 60% go for SpaceX’s GPS III SV04 and Starlink-12 launches. Tune in around 9:25 pm EDT (01:25 UTC) to catch the first of two SpaceX launch webcasts.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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