SpaceX
SpaceX preps for Cargo Dragon, Falcon Heavy launches despite setbacks
Despite suffering the loss of the first Falcon Heavy Block 5 center core and a catastrophic failure of the first flight-proven Crew Dragon spacecraft in nearly the same week, SpaceX’s core operations continue as usual to prepare for multiple launches in the coming months.
The echoes of the past week’s failures and ‘anomalies’ will undoubtedly ring for months to come but SpaceX now finds itself in a unique situation. Despite the imminent start of a major failure investigation, it appears unlikely – at least for the time being – that it will impact the majority of Falcon 9 and Falcon Heavy launches planned for the rest of 2019. Currently on the Q2 2019 manifest are Cargo Dragon’s 17th operational mission (CRS-17), the first operational Starlink launch, Spacecom’s Amos-17 satellite, the Canadian Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM), and Falcon Heavy’s third launch (STP-2).
Cargo Dragon – CRS-17
Following an April 20th explosion that destroyed Crew Dragon C201, SpaceX’s next launch – Cargo Dragon CRS-17 – has likely just become the most important in the near-term. Although Crew Dragon shares almost nothing directly in common with Cargo Dragon, both spacecraft still do come from the same lineage, relying on the same propellant and Draco maneuvering thrusters, as well as similar plumbing (excluding SuperDraco pods) and many of the same engineers and technicians.
On the other hand, Cargo Dragon has never suffered a catastrophic anomaly on the ground or in flight, although SpaceX has dealt with a fair share of less serious issues throughout the spacecraft’s operational life. Further, following the August 2017 launch of CRS-12, every CRS mission has launched with a flight-proven Cargo Dragon spacecraft. In fact, it’s quite likely that the CRS-12 Cargo Dragon capsule is the same spacecraft that has been refurbished for CRS-17, as it is currently the only flightworthy capsule to have only flown one orbital resupply mission.
It’s unclear which Falcon 9 booster has been assigned to CRS-17. NASA’s agreement with SpaceX for flight-proven boosters has been predicated on keeping those boosters ‘in-family’, so to speak, meaning that NASA will only accept flight-proven boosters if they have only flown NASA missions. The only booster that currently fits that bill is B1051, previously flown during Crew Dragon’s orbital launch debut on March 2nd, but B1051 has reportedly been assigned to SpaceX’s second Vandenberg launch of 2019 at the customer’s request. CRS-17 will thus likely launch on a new Falcon 9 booster (B1056). There is a chance that Crew Dragon’s catastrophic failure has severely contaminated the Landing Zone area with unburnt MMH and NTO, both of which are extraordinarily toxic to humans in even the tiniest of quantities.
Some launch-related questions may be answered in a NASA media briefing planned for 11am EDT, April 22nd. CRS-17 is scheduled to launch no earlier than 4:22 am EDT (08:22 UTC), April 30th.
Starlink, Falcon Heavy, and more
Meanwhile, the Falcon upper/second stage (S2) spotted in the tweet at the top of the article serves as evidence of preparations for launches planned in May/June, as do a duo of first stage boosters spied during their own Cape Canaveral arrivals. All that’s missing to round out a busy week of SpaceX transportation is the appearance of one or several payload fairings, although CEO Elon Musk says that the company will try to reuse Falcon Heavy Flight 2’s fairing on the first Starlink launch.
Said Starlink launch – unofficially labeled Starlink-1 – is currently scheduled for liftoff no earlier than mid-May, likely making it the SpaceX mission that will follow CRS-17. The most likely Falcon 9 S1 candidate is the thrice-flown Block 5 booster B1046, a move that would retire risk otherwise transmitted to customers. SpaceX has now flown two separate Falcon 9 boosters (B1046 and B1048) three times without major issue, meaning that the fourth flight of the same booster (and beyond) will be new territory for reuse at some level.
Beyond Starlink-1, SpaceX has the communications satellite Amos-17 and Radarsat Constellation Mission (RCM), both of which are understood to be targeting launch no earlier than (NET) early June. Finally, Falcon Heavy Flight 3 – carrying the US Air Force’s STP-2 mission – is scheduled to launch NET June 22nd, although some additional delays are probable.
From a business-as-usual perspective, the fact that Crew Dragon C201 failed during intentional testing on the ground means that it will likely be SpaceX’s least commercially disruptive failure yet. This could change for any number of reasons, depending on the conclusions drawn by the joint NASA-SpaceX investigation soon to begin, and it’s far too early to draw far-reaching conclusions. Chances are good that the impact to non-Crew Dragon launches will be minimal but only time will tell as SpaceX begins to quite literally pick up the pieces and start a deep-dive analysis of all data gathered from Saturday’s failure.
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SpaceX’s massive investment in AI will make it a big winner, Argus Research said after the company’s successful earnings call last week.
The firm also upgraded shares to a Buy from Hold and set a $160 price target.
SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) is currently recovering from its heavy AI infrastructure investments, as it spent nearly $16 billion in Q2 alone. The company did this primarily by monetizing high-demand GPU compute capacity at a much faster pace than traditional data center economics would suggest.
Company CFO Bret Johnsen said that SpaceX would be able to pay back anything on new deployments within a year.
There are plenty of ways the company can do this:
Leasing excess compute capacity through contracts
SpaceX has already built Colossus and Colossus II, largely for its own model training. However, much of that capacity is already rented out to third parties. It already has major deals with Anthropic, Google, and Reflection AI. These partnerships are adding billions per month to SpaceX’s spreadsheet.
High utilization driven by industry-wide scarcity
The demand for advanced AI training and inference capacity continues to exceed what is available for use. SpaceX can fill new racks quickly after they come online, so the capital deployed converts into revenue with minimal idle time.
Additionally, management and outside observers have described the new compute capital as behaving more like a cost-of-goods-sold than traditional multi-year capex, especially because of this rapid monetization pattern.
Capacity has already scaled from ~0.4 GW a year to 1.4 GW annually by the end of Q2. There are targets of more than 2 GW by year-end.
High incremental margins on the rental business once capacity is online
GPU cloud providers often operate at strong gross margins. SpaceX can monetize capacity that was already partially built or can be added efficiently. This means that incremental EBITDA margins on the rental revenue are usually high. This accelerates cash recovery relative to the gross capital outlay.
Parallel monetization of its own AI software and applications
Beyond pure infrastructure rental, SpaceX also generates revenue from Grok through subscriptions and usage, from X through ads, data, and other related services, enterprise APIs, and the planned integration of the Cursor coding tools acquisition.
These application layers ride on the same compute infrastructure and provide additional high-margin streams that could offset build-out costs. AI-segment revenue overall rose sharply to about $2.6 billion in Q2, according to Motley Fool. This was driven primarily by the infrastructure contracts, but the software side is also partially responsible.
Efficient, large-scale deployment and vertical integration advantages
SpaceX has emphasized the rapid construction of power and cooling infrastructure and favorable cost-per-megawatt economics relative to industry benchmarks in some disclosures.
Combined with its ability to scale capacity aggressively and the fact that many contracts start generating revenue within months of capacity coming online, the effective payback compresses dramatically compared with more conventional multi-year data-center projects.
SpaceX’s dominant near-term recovery path will turn the AI clusters into a hyperscale-style compute rental business for other leading AI companies while still using a portion for internal models.
Elon Musk
Another Tesla SpaceX merger prediction by ARK Invest has Elon Musk talking
Elon Musk again denies a Tesla China split as new SpaceX merger speculation resurfaces quickly.
Elon Musk restated that Tesla has no plans to separate its China business from the rest of the company, responding to a new round of merger speculation from ARK Invest.
On the firm’s “Brainstorm” podcast, Cathie Wood’s team, including chief futurist Brett Winton and research director Nick Grous, argued a Tesla and SpaceX combination remains likely, with an announcement possible before the end of the year even if the deal itself would not close that quickly. Winton called Tesla’s Shanghai operations a “small ish wrinkle” for a merger rather than a real obstacle, since SpaceX’s national security work with the U.S. government sits uneasily next to Tesla’s manufacturing base in China.
Musk pushed back on the framing directly. “China is awesome. I strongly encourage people to visit,” he wrote on X. He also repeated language he first used in late July, when the Wall Street Journal reported that Tesla executives had been told to prepare for a possible spinoff, sale, or closure of the China business ahead of a SpaceX tie up. Musk called that report “absurdly fake news” at the time, adding that a separation had “never even come up in a discussion ever,” a line he echoed again this week.
The repeated denial has not settled the underlying question, because Shanghai’s role in Tesla’s business is exactly what makes a merger complicated. Gigafactory Shanghai still ships more than half of Tesla’s global deliveries and functions as the company’s main export hub for Europe and Asia. Teslarati previously reported on Musk’s initial denial, and the merger conversation itself has been building since SpaceX’s IPO gave it public shares to use as acquisition currency.
Wedbush’s Dan Ives has pegged the odds of a Tesla SpaceX merger at 80 to 90 percent by early 2027, and ARK’s prediction of a year end announcement adds another data point to that timeline, even as Musk keeps rejecting the specific mechanics reporters have described. Neither position rules out the other. Musk can deny a China spinoff was ever discussed while analysts still expect some form of combination to move forward, since ARK and Ives are both describing convergence at the corporate level, not necessarily the internal restructuring the Journal described in July.
For now, Tesla’s China business remains intact, and Musk’s comments this week make clear he has no interest in publicly walking that position back, no matter how often the merger question resurfaces.
SpaceX stock did the opposite of what most of Wall Street expected this week, when the day designed to be its most dangerous turned into a rally, and the rally kept going.
Thursday marked the first major lockup expiration since SpaceX’s June IPO, making roughly 911.5 million insider held shares eligible to trade for the first time, more than doubling the company’s public float. Analysts and short sellers had spent weeks bracing for a flood of selling, especially after the stock fell 13 percent following its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday. Instead, shares rose 6.1 percent Thursday to close at $114.92, and by Friday they were trading near $129, up more than another 12 percent on the day.
SpaceX shorts get warned by Musk ally, echoing Tesla’s early struggles
The setup made the outcome notable. Short interest had climbed to roughly 34 percent of the float heading into earnings, among the highest of any large cap stock, with about 95 percent of available shares to borrow already on loan. CEO Elon Musk warned short sellers twice in the weeks before the lockup, writing on X that “the survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” then following up on the morning of earnings with “I try to warn them, but they just double down.”
When the newly unlocked shares hit the market and the selloff never showed up, some of that short position appears to have started unwinding. TipRanks reported that options activity shifted toward bullish strategies like put selling and risk reversals following the rally, with roughly $600 million in options premium trading Thursday alone. Retail buyers also stepped in during the earnings dip, according to Vanda Research.
The fundamentals behind the stock have not changed much in a week. SpaceX’s revenue nearly doubled year over year to $7.8 billion, with Starlink subscribers doubling to 12 million and the company’s AI segment growing 247 percent. What spooked investors on Tuesday was the spending side. Capital expenditures jumped to more than $18 billion for the quarter, up from $2.8 billion a year earlier, with AI investment alone rising from $749 million to $15.8 billion. Wall Street remains split on whether that spending is building infrastructure SpaceX needs or outrunning what the business can currently support, a debate Teslarati has tracked since shares first came under pressure.
None of that resolves the bigger question hanging over the stock. Thursday’s release was only the first of nine staggered lockup tranches, with roughly $800 billion worth of additional shares scheduled to become eligible through October, and Musk’s own stake stays locked until next June. If this week is any indication, the market is treating that supply as something it can absorb rather than something to fear, at least for now.
Tesla has one big financial question to answer for investors: Morgan Stanley
SpaceX AI investment gamble will make it a big winner, firm says
