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SpaceX to demonstrate weekly launch cadence: 3 launches in 14 days
LC-39A undergoing repairs and tests after the launch of CRS-11. (/r/SpaceX)
SpaceX is in the process of preparing to launch BulgariaSat-1, with the first attempt scheduled for Saturday, June 17th between 2:10 p.m and 4:10 p.m. EST. BulgariaSat-1 will be Bulgaria’s second satellite ever and will act as a telecommunications hub in geostationary orbit, around 30,000 miles above Earth.
Following a highly successful launch and docking of the eleventh cargo mission of its Dragon spacecraft, Launch Complex 39A has since undergone routine checks to verify its condition and has likely been lightly repaired. The static fire for the upcoming mission is scheduled as early as tomorrow. Both the static fire and launch were pushed back two days due to a 48 hour delay of the CRS-11 launch.
The launch of BulgariaSat-1 is already exceptional for several reasons. First and foremost, the Falcon 9 first stage to be used in the upcoming mission has already flown once before, assisting in the successful launch of Iridium’s first ten NEXT satellites in early January of this year. It will thus mark the second time SpaceX has truly reused a Falcon 9 first stage. There has even been a bit of circumstantial evidence that the choice to launch on a recovered F9 resulted in BulgariaSat-1 being moved ahead of Intelsat 35e, which is now scheduled for no earlier than July 1st. Regardless, another successful reuse will be a boon for a SpaceX in the throes of an unprecedentedly busy year of launches by once again demonstrating the viability of their program of reuse and thus hopefully swaying more customers to take the leap to reused rocket cores.
The second reason, as touched on above, is that BulgariaSat-1 will mark the beginning of a two week period in which SpaceX could potentially conduct three separate launches, two at Cape Canaveral and one at Vandenberg Air Force Base. If successful, this would demonstrate weekly single-vehicle launch cadence, something that has not been seen in the launch industry in quite some time. This weekly cadence, if successful, will demonstrate a maturing company that is truly preparing for extraordinary launch cadence. By using two pads, one in California and one in Florida, SpaceX will still be able to provide two weeks between launches in order to prepare each launch site for the next launch, while effectively launching once a week. While Vandenberg Air Force Base can only support polar orbit launches, LC-40 is currently deep into the process of being repaired and reactivated following the failure of a Falcon 9 late last year.
With LC-40 preparing for reactivation sometime in August or September, SpaceX will find themselves at long last with two viable all-purpose launch pads in very close proximity to each other. By staggering launches on each pad and continuing to maintain the two week pad turnaround time after launches, SpaceX could theoretically begin to sustain regular weekly launches as few as three months from now. A successful weekly cadence this month could reinforce that such a sequence of events is a possibility.
Iridium NEXT 1’s Falcon 9 first stage after recovery in the Pacific Ocean. (SpaceX)
SpaceX has long been working to rapidly increase its ability to launch frequently, and this year has been an exceptional example of several pieces fitting together. The company has begun to use an automated flight termination system, which will allow them to rely less upon the availability of Cape Canaveral’s Range Officers while crafting their manifest and launch schedules. Normally, the flight termination system in rockets is monitored by an actual team of people who have barely a few seconds to decide if rocket telemetry is less than nominal and prevent what is effectively a large missile from impacting populated areas. SpaceX has replaced this with an arguably much safer approach dependent upon their mature autonomous avionics systems, simply meaning that computers on board their rockets and spacecraft automatically analyze telemetry and control vehicle performance and guidance. SpaceX has been testing this system in a way that is almost identical to Tesla’s method of installing inert autonomy software that can learn without actually controlling the vehicle, and it is consequently only now being implemented after SpaceX and the Air Force have a high degree of confidence that it will outperform its human colleagues.
The ultimate goal of this automated flight termination system (AFTS), as well as many other significant changes to both the hardware of pads and vehicles, is to eventually allow SpaceX to accomplish Elon Musk’s long fabled and oft-ridiculed goal of 24-hour reusability, and thus 24-hour launch cadence. SpaceX and the USAF have both stated that AFTS alone will likely allow Cape Canaveral to support up to 48 launches a year. While shared between ULA and SpaceX, even 36 launches a year would effectively leave SpaceX with a shrinking launch manifest and significantly increased revenue and profit. This would speculatively allow them to more rapidly develop their pursuits of Mars, a vast constellation of broadband satellites, and more.
BulgariaSat-1 being prepared for launch. (SSL)
Nevertheless, this is all of course speculation and dependent upon many things going well. If SpaceX is able to successfully launch BulgariaSat-1 on June 17th, Iridium NEXT 2 on the 25th, and Intelsat 35e on July 1st, they will have successfully demonstrated the ability to support a weekly launch cadence and will have to do little more than wait for the availability of a second East coast pad to begin to take full advantage of it.
With ten launches scheduled between now and October and ten more launches scheduled between October and the end of December, it is guaranteed to be one incredible year for SpaceX and their fans.
Tesla Full Self-Driving (Supervised) showed a record attach rate at delivery for new vehicles in the third quarter of 2026.
75 percent of new vehicle deliveries in North America included a subscription to FSD software, up from 55 percent in the prior quarter, a 20-percentage-point sequential gain in the company’s most mature market.
Tesla Q3 2026 Earnings results: in-line revenues, slight beat on EPS
Tesla shed light on the Q3 Shareholder Deck that 75 percent of new deliveries came with an FSD subscription:
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets. “
The higher attach rate accompanied strong growth in the overall FSD consumer base, as active subscriptions rose to 1.75 million, a 67 percent year-over-year increase. For the first time, more than half of paid customers are on the monthly subscription, which is priced at $99 per month in the U.S.
People are buying FSD with a car attached, not the other way around
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 21, 2026
The transition to subscriptions has accelerated since Tesla discontinued the one-time purchase option in most markets earlier this year. The recurring model improves revenue visibility and margins compared with large upfront payments. With three-quarters of North American deliveries now including FSD, the software is now an evidently large contributor to Tesla’s economics and ancillary revenue.
Geographic expansion remains important for further gains. FSD is now available in nine countries in the EU, and more than 100,000 customers have driven over 160 million kilometers. Tesla is pursuing broader EU-wide approval, with a related vote expected in December. Similar progress in additional markets could support higher attach rates beyond North America.
These results came as Tesla had a strong quarterly delivery performance of 486,532 vehicles in the quarter, which came with its largest passenger-vehicle backlog in four years. Battery supply continued to limit volume, but the company has pointed to FSD as a clear difference-maker that is helping sustain demand. As supervised capabilities improve, the attach rate will likely continue to improve.
At face value, it is a key measure of how Tesla is converting sales into autonomy progress.
Update: 10/22 10:51a – Para 1 consumers changed to “customers” for accuracy.
Tesla Cybercab units finally got a definitive date for when they will be able to be purchased by customers, ending speculation regarding whether the fully autonomous vehicle would be available in the near term.
During Tesla’s third-quarter 2026 earnings call on October 21, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy said the company is aiming to begin delivering its purpose-built Cybercab robotaxi to customers before year-end.
🚨 In short, Cybercabs are slated to go to customers by end of the year. All units are going into Robotaxi fleet currently, per @larsmoravy
Cybercab will be “transport-as-a-service,” but vast majority of Cybercab will be “Tesla-owned,” @elonmusk says https://t.co/R8Qu8QWdmp
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
“We’re trying to get Cybercabs to customers by the end of this year, 2026,” Moravy said. He added that production is underway on the line at Gigafactory Texas, but “all of those are currently going to our own internal Robotaxi fleet.”
Moravy explained that as operations scale, Tesla will “mainly deliver fully designed autonomous vehicles to our customers,” with the Cybercab as the first such vehicle. Initial customer deliveries will start small while the company gains experience with delivery logistics, ownership models, fleet management, and operating autonomous vehicles outside its direct control.
CEO Elon Musk reinforced the limited nature of private sales, describing the Cybercab primarily as a “transport-as-a-service” offering rather than a personal ownership vehicle like the Model 3, Model Y, or upcoming Roadster. “The vast majority of the Cybercab stuff will be Tesla-owned and transport-as-a-service,” Musk said.
The Cybercab is a two-seater vehicle developed by Tesla without a steering wheel or pedals. It relies completely on Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite and has been in production since February. Early units have been put in Tesla’s Robotaxi service as of early September, when the company launched rides to the public. Tesla previously indicated it would aim to sell Cybercabs for about $30,000.
Unsupervised Full Self-Driving is expected to ship to consumer cars during Q2 2027, Ashok Elluswamy, Tesla’s Head of AI, indicated during the call. Early buyers or fleet operators may receive vehicles whose autonomous operation remains geographically restricted due to lagging regulatory agencies. There are some hurdles that remain ahead of Cybercab deliveries.
Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) reported its earnings for the third quarter of 2026, marking a reasonable performance on the various financial metrics. Tesla still plans to hold a call that will field investor questions at 5:30 p.m. ET, 4:30 p.m. CT.
Here’s where Earnings came in:
- Total Revenues: $28.046 reported vs. $28.34B expected
- Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48 reported vs. $0.45 expected
- Operating Margin: 2.6 % reported vs. 2.5% expected
- Operating Income: $718M reported vs. $721M expected
- Free Cash Flow: $1.531B reported vs. ~-$4.51B expected
Tesla $TSLA Earnings Results:
Revenues: $28.046B
Non-GAAP EPS: $0.48
Operating Margin: 2.6%
Operating Income: $718M
FCF: $1.531B— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) October 21, 2026
Major Takeaways
Full Self-Driving (Supervised)
“FSD (Supervised)⁴ attach rate continued to grow, reaching over 75% of new vehicle deliveries in North America – our most mature market – a nearly twenty percentage point sequential increase. We believe that FSD is driving demand in markets where it is available, and we continue to work with regulators to get it approved in other markets.”
Tesla Semi
“We began volume production of Tesla Semi, our Class 8 heavy-duty truck. The top variant can go 500 miles at full 82,000 lbs gross combination weight while achieving an efficiency of 1.7 kWh/mile. That efficiency allows the Tesla Semi to use a third of the energy used by a comparable diesel truck to haul the same payload. In a transportation market where energy is one of the largest components of total cost per mile, this will provide a meaningful advantage to Tesla Semi operators.”
SI Compute
“We plan to reach 400 MW of SI training compute by the end of the year, supporting the development of both vehicle and humanoid robot autonomy software. Additionally, we continued construction for the Austin Fab, where we plan to start commissioning equipment in 2027.”
Robotaxi
“We began deployment of Cybercab into our Robotaxi fleet in Austin. We reached nearly two million cumulative unsupervised miles for our Robotaxi service as of the end of the quarter. Operating hours in Austin are now 6am to midnight, and we expect to reduce wait times via increased fleet supply and improvement of Robotaxi orchestration algorithms. Grok is available in Cybercab with access to Grok Bot and Connectors, which allows users to manage their inbox, calendars, files, chats and tasks – all hands free via voice command – making Cybercab a mode of transport, a productivity space and, with our entertainment options, a second living room.”
Interested in ordering a Tesla? Use my referral code for three free months of Full Self-Driving (Supervised) here.
Tesla buyers are buying for Full Self-Driving and not for the car, data shows
Tesla Cybercab gets a for sale date at last
