Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is still poised to earn about $3 billion in zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) credits this year despite growing concerns over policy shifts under United States President Donald Trump. This is, at least, according to Piper Sandler analyst Alex Potter, who maintained his $400 per share price target and “Overweight” rating on TSLA stock.

Tesla’s ZEV credit revenue

In a recent investor note, Potter acknowledged that Trump’s efforts to undo EV-related incentives could impact Tesla’s ZEV credit income. The analyst noted that these effects would likely not be too drastic, however, even if ZEV credits provide Tesla’s finances with a substantial boost. Last year, Tesla earned about $3.5 billion from regulatory credits, equal to nearly 100% of the company’s FY24 free cash flow, as noted in a Benzinga report. 

Potter estimated that the impact of potential regulatory reversals from the Trump administration will likely not be immediate. “Tesla will still book around $3B in credits this year, followed by $2.3B in 2026,” the Piper Sandler analyst wrote.

Considering his reiterated $400 price target for Tesla stock, Potter seems to be expecting an upside of over 20% for the electric vehicle maker. It should be noted, however, that Tesla is a volatile stock by nature, so huge swings in stock price may happen even without material developments from the company.

Robotaxi developments

The Piper Sandler analyst highlighted the progress of Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program and Robotaxi developments as potential offsets to regulatory headwinds. Potter pointed to expanding operations in Austin and Tesla’s push to launch Robotaxi services in Phoenix and the Bay Area, pending regulatory approval. 

“In our view, these favorable FSD-related developments are likely to overshadow any/all negative commentary arising from lower 2025/2026 estimates,” the analyst wrote.

In addition to rescinding ZEV programs, the Trump administration has proposed ending the $7,500 federal EV credit by September 2025 and rolling back Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards.

Tesla recorded 9,900 new vehicle insurance registrations in China during the week of July 14–20, a 19.3% decline from the 12,270 units that were listed in the prior week. The drop follows a sharp surge in early July, when registrations rose 145% week-over-week.

Weekly registrations dip after early July surge

Tesla’s drop in insurance registrations last week follows a notable spike earlier this month. During the week of July 7–13, the company registered 12,300 vehicles, up 145% from just 5,010 units the week before. That surge was largely driven by strong domestic demand for the locally produced Model Y crossover and Model 3 sedan, both built at Tesla’s Gigafactory Shanghai.

Tesla introduced minor updates to both long-range models recently, as well as a minor price increase for the Model 3. The Model Y’s pricing remained unchanged, a move that likely helped maintain momentum in the highly competitive Chinese EV market, as noted n a CNEV Post report. Despite the recent dip, the Model Y continues to lead Tesla’s local deliveries, highlighting its role as the company’s top seller in China.

June sales remain strong despite lower exports

Tesla’s June wholesale figures in China totaled 71,599 vehicles, up 0.83% year-over-year and 16.1% from May, according to the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). Retail sales in the country reached 61,484 units, making June Tesla’s second-highest domestic month of the year, behind only March. The figures suggest that the Model Y and Model 3 are seeing some stable demand in China, despite emerging competition and pricing pressure in the local EV segment.

However, exports from Gigafactory Shanghai dropped to 10,115 units in June, down 13.9% from last year and over 56% from May. The shift suggests Tesla may be prioritizing domestic deliveries ahead of new product introductions. Tesla, after all, is expected to launch the six-seat variant of the Model Y, called the Model Y L, in China in the coming months.

Tesla has officially opened its Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles to the public for the first time. It is an 80-Supercharger lot with two movie screens and a full-service 24/7 diner that serves a wide variety of locally sourced food for patrons while they charge or even just stop by.

It is not exclusive to Tesla owners, as anyone can stop by to experience the Diner and movie theater. It officially opened to the public at 4:20 p.m. local time.

🚨 The Tesla Supercharger Diner, as of 4:20pm local time, is officially open to the public!

pic.twitter.com/0PrMj1YGi1

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 21, 2025

In 2018, CEO Elon Musk said he was hoping to build a full-scale 50s era diner that served as a drive-in movie theater. Seven years later, it has officially come to life, and in typical Tesla fashion, it opened at a very appropriate time of day. We heard of people waiting as many as 13 hours for the site to open.

Tesla Diner Menu

BURGERS & SANDWICHES

• Tesla Burger: $13.5
  • 1/3 lb. prime Brandt Beef with New School American cheese, lettuce, caramelized onions, pickles and Electric Sauce on a Martin’s Potato Roll
  • Add bacon: $3
  • Add Wagyu beef chili: $3
  • Add organic free-range fried egg: $2
  • Sub veggie patty
• Hot Dog: $13
  • All-beef Snap-o-Razzo hot dog with mustard and onion pickle relish on a Martin’s Potato Roll. Served with fried potatoes
  • Add New School cheese sauce: $1
  • Add Wagyu beef chili: $1
• Diner Club Sandwich: $13
  • Roasted turkey, Epio Bacon, blistered cherry tomatoes, lettuce, avocado and maple black pepper mayo on toasted Tartine buttermilk bread
• Tuna Melt: $14
  • Wild-caught albacore tuna salad with New School American cheese and pickles on grilled Tartine buttermilk bread
• Fried Chicken & Waffles: $15
  • Classic or spicy pickle-brined organic free-range chicken between two buttermilk waffles with maple black pepper mayo
  • Add New School cheese sauce: $1
  • Add bacon: $2
  • Add organic free-range fried egg: $3
  • Sub Martin’s Potato Roll
• Grilled Cheese: $9
  • New School American cheese on grilled Tartine buttermilk bread
  • Add blistered tomatoes: $1
  • Add Avocado: $1.50
  • Add Epic Bacon: $3

ALL-DAY BREAKFAST

• Egg Sandwich: $12
  • Two organic free-range scrambled eggs on a Martin’s Potato Roll with Epic Bacon, New School American cheese, baby arugula and Electric Sauce
  • Add avocado: $1.50
  • Substitute waffle Avocado Toast: $11
  • Sliced avocado, lime, tomatoes, pepitas, radish and arugula on toasted Tartine buttermilk bread
• Greek Yogurt Parfait: $9
  • Strauss Creamery organic Greek yogurt, roasted strawberries, organic gluten-free granola and local honey
• Breakfast Tacos: $9
  • Organic free-range scrambled eggs, beef chorizo, crispy potatoes and New School American cheese sauce folded inside two Tehachapi Grain Project organic flour tortillas. Served with a side of avocado crema
  • Sub bacon: $1
  • Add avocado: $1.50 Biscuits & Red Gravy: $15
• Buttermilk biscuit with beef chorizo gravy and an organic free-range fried egg
• House-Baked Cinnamon Roll: $7
  • Warm, frosted cinnamon roll with flaky salt

SIDES

• Tallow-fried French fries: $4
  • Make it a cheese fries: $1 extra
  • Make it Wagyu chili cheese fries: $3 extra
• Hash Brown Bites: $8
  • Crispy, tallow-fried shredded potatoes served with choice of dip
• Wagyu Beef Chili Cup: $8
  • RC Provisons Wagyu beef chili with diced white onion and New School American cheese sauce
• Buttermilk Waffle: $5 • Dusted with powdered sugar, served with real maple syrup
• Market Salad: $10
  • Market kale and arugula, blistered cherry tomatoes, radishes, celery, shredded carrots, avocado, salted pepitas and toasted breadcrumbs.
  • Served with Dilly Ranch
  • Add roasted turkey: $3
  • Add fried chicken: $3.50
  • Add veggie patty: $4.50
  • Add tuna salad: $5
• Epic Bacon:
  • $12 Four strips of maple-glazed black pepper bacon served with choice of dip

KIDS MENU

• Kids Burger: $13
  • Prime Brandt Beef with New School American cheese
• Kids’ Grilled Cheese: $13
  • New School American cheese on grilled Tartine buttermilk bread. No crust
• Chicken Tenders: $13
  • Made with organic free-range chicken

DESSERTS

• Soft Serve: $6
  • Chocolate, vanilla or swirl
• Slice of Pie à la Mode: $12
  • Warm slice of Winston’s apple or pecan pie (gf) served with Valley Ford Creamery softserve a la mode
• Chocolate Chip Cookie: $5
  • Warm chocolate chip cookie with flaky sea salt

DRINKS

• Cane sugar sodas: $4 each: Cola, diet cola, lemon-lime, root beer, orange, black cherry or cream.
• Milkshakes $8
  • Vanilla, chocolate or strawberry. Make it a Pie Shake for an extra $4
  • (apple or pecan).
• Lemonade: $4
• Organic Draft Kombucha: $8
• Drip Coffee: $4
• Nitro Cold Brew: $4.5
• Espresso (hot, iced, decaf): $4
• Cappuccino (hot, iced, decaf): $5.5
• Latte (hot, iced, decaf): $6
• Iced Nitro Matcha: $6.5
• Charged Sodas:
  • Creamsicle: $7
    • Orange soda, cream soda, vanilla foam, fresh orange and orange popping boba
  • Shirley Temple: $7
    • Lemon-lime soda, grenadine, fresh lime and maraschino cherries
  • Lime Rickey: $7
    • Lemon-lime soda and fresh lime
  • Catawba Flip: $7
    • Grape soda, vanilla foam, nutmeg and grapes
  • Dirty Kombucha: $10
    • Citrus kombucha, vanilla foam, fresh orange and lime, maraschino cherries.

Tesla Diner Details

The opening of the Diner was launched by Franz von Holzhausen, Tesla’s Chief Designer:

🚨 Tesla Chief Designer Franz von Holzhausen kicks off the Tesla Diner’s opening to the public: pic.twitter.com/c4utYKv1ZD

— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 21, 2025

There is also merchandise available at the Diner, including:

• Tesla Bot Action Figure
• Hollywood Retro Diner Tee
• Tesla Sweets | Supercharged Gummies: Dog Mode Chill, Mango Bolt, and CyberBerry
• Tesla Diner Trucker Hat