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SpaceX to demonstrate weekly launch cadence: 3 launches in 14 days
LC-39A undergoing repairs and tests after the launch of CRS-11. (/r/SpaceX)
SpaceX is in the process of preparing to launch BulgariaSat-1, with the first attempt scheduled for Saturday, June 17th between 2:10 p.m and 4:10 p.m. EST. BulgariaSat-1 will be Bulgaria’s second satellite ever and will act as a telecommunications hub in geostationary orbit, around 30,000 miles above Earth.
Following a highly successful launch and docking of the eleventh cargo mission of its Dragon spacecraft, Launch Complex 39A has since undergone routine checks to verify its condition and has likely been lightly repaired. The static fire for the upcoming mission is scheduled as early as tomorrow. Both the static fire and launch were pushed back two days due to a 48 hour delay of the CRS-11 launch.
The launch of BulgariaSat-1 is already exceptional for several reasons. First and foremost, the Falcon 9 first stage to be used in the upcoming mission has already flown once before, assisting in the successful launch of Iridium’s first ten NEXT satellites in early January of this year. It will thus mark the second time SpaceX has truly reused a Falcon 9 first stage. There has even been a bit of circumstantial evidence that the choice to launch on a recovered F9 resulted in BulgariaSat-1 being moved ahead of Intelsat 35e, which is now scheduled for no earlier than July 1st. Regardless, another successful reuse will be a boon for a SpaceX in the throes of an unprecedentedly busy year of launches by once again demonstrating the viability of their program of reuse and thus hopefully swaying more customers to take the leap to reused rocket cores.
The second reason, as touched on above, is that BulgariaSat-1 will mark the beginning of a two week period in which SpaceX could potentially conduct three separate launches, two at Cape Canaveral and one at Vandenberg Air Force Base. If successful, this would demonstrate weekly single-vehicle launch cadence, something that has not been seen in the launch industry in quite some time. This weekly cadence, if successful, will demonstrate a maturing company that is truly preparing for extraordinary launch cadence. By using two pads, one in California and one in Florida, SpaceX will still be able to provide two weeks between launches in order to prepare each launch site for the next launch, while effectively launching once a week. While Vandenberg Air Force Base can only support polar orbit launches, LC-40 is currently deep into the process of being repaired and reactivated following the failure of a Falcon 9 late last year.
With LC-40 preparing for reactivation sometime in August or September, SpaceX will find themselves at long last with two viable all-purpose launch pads in very close proximity to each other. By staggering launches on each pad and continuing to maintain the two week pad turnaround time after launches, SpaceX could theoretically begin to sustain regular weekly launches as few as three months from now. A successful weekly cadence this month could reinforce that such a sequence of events is a possibility.
Iridium NEXT 1’s Falcon 9 first stage after recovery in the Pacific Ocean. (SpaceX)
SpaceX has long been working to rapidly increase its ability to launch frequently, and this year has been an exceptional example of several pieces fitting together. The company has begun to use an automated flight termination system, which will allow them to rely less upon the availability of Cape Canaveral’s Range Officers while crafting their manifest and launch schedules. Normally, the flight termination system in rockets is monitored by an actual team of people who have barely a few seconds to decide if rocket telemetry is less than nominal and prevent what is effectively a large missile from impacting populated areas. SpaceX has replaced this with an arguably much safer approach dependent upon their mature autonomous avionics systems, simply meaning that computers on board their rockets and spacecraft automatically analyze telemetry and control vehicle performance and guidance. SpaceX has been testing this system in a way that is almost identical to Tesla’s method of installing inert autonomy software that can learn without actually controlling the vehicle, and it is consequently only now being implemented after SpaceX and the Air Force have a high degree of confidence that it will outperform its human colleagues.
The ultimate goal of this automated flight termination system (AFTS), as well as many other significant changes to both the hardware of pads and vehicles, is to eventually allow SpaceX to accomplish Elon Musk’s long fabled and oft-ridiculed goal of 24-hour reusability, and thus 24-hour launch cadence. SpaceX and the USAF have both stated that AFTS alone will likely allow Cape Canaveral to support up to 48 launches a year. While shared between ULA and SpaceX, even 36 launches a year would effectively leave SpaceX with a shrinking launch manifest and significantly increased revenue and profit. This would speculatively allow them to more rapidly develop their pursuits of Mars, a vast constellation of broadband satellites, and more.
BulgariaSat-1 being prepared for launch. (SSL)
Nevertheless, this is all of course speculation and dependent upon many things going well. If SpaceX is able to successfully launch BulgariaSat-1 on June 17th, Iridium NEXT 2 on the 25th, and Intelsat 35e on July 1st, they will have successfully demonstrated the ability to support a weekly launch cadence and will have to do little more than wait for the availability of a second East coast pad to begin to take full advantage of it.
With ten launches scheduled between now and October and ten more launches scheduled between October and the end of December, it is guaranteed to be one incredible year for SpaceX and their fans.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
