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SpaceX rideshare program beats small rockets for Emirati launch contract
The United Arab Emirates’ (UAE) space agency has contracted with SpaceX to launch a domestically-built Earth observation satellite on a Falcon 9 rideshare mission.
Known as MBZ SAT, the ~700 kg (~1550 lb) spacecraft will be the second domestic imaging satellite (mostly) built by the UAE itself and, among several other upgrades, will nearly double its resolving power from KhalifaSat’s 0.7m/pixel to ~0.4m/pixel – not far off from the unclassified state of the art. To develop such an advanced domestic capability is no small task and based on similarly sized and capable spacecraft from the US and Europe, MBZ SAT development and the first flightworthy satellite could easily cost $100 million or more.
That makes the mission a bit of a jewel in the crown of SpaceX’s Smallsat Rideshare Program, which is intentionally branded as a more hands-off, public-transit-like utility that offers extremely low prices at the cost of more traditional white-glove launch services.
For a direct contract with SpaceX itself, the Smallsat Rideshare Program charges a minimum of $1 million to launch up to 200 kg (440 lb) on one payload adapter. Anything beyond that 200 kg mark costs the same, so twice the payload on the same adapter would cost exactly twice as much. For a fee, SpaceX also offers fueling services and gives customers the option of buying SpaceX-built adapters and deployment mechanisms or bringing their own.
Buying from SpaceX, that makes the Smallsat Program optimal for spacecraft between about 50 kg and 500 kg. For truly tiny satellites, third-party launch service providers like Exolaunch and Spaceflight purchase several-hundred-kilogram slots for self-built adapters that can host a handful to dozens of cubesats and nanosats. In that sense, the way SpaceX has structured its Smallsat Program almost mirrors large-scale shipping. SpaceX simply offers space on its ‘ship,’ leaving it mostly up to the customers to worry about their ‘containers.’ Some customers might need all or most of a container to themselves – an optimal outcome. Others might have goods that barely fill a fraction of a container and have to either find other customers to partner with or a third-party logistics company that works to slot a bunch of small payloads together to maximize efficiency and minimize shipping costs.
With the right balance, most common customer needs and budgets can be catered to with the same program and on the same ship or launch. That includes outliers like MZB SAT, which can be equated to an ultra-expensive hypercar that needs special handling and a container all to itself. In this case, it’s likely that SpaceX will go above and beyond to accommodate the UAE’s particular needs and be extra cognizant of the gap between MZB SAT and the Transporter mission’s other rideshare payloads.
Above all else, MZB SAT is almost perfectly sized and destined for the perfect orbit (500 km or 310 mi) to be launched on one of several new small rockets that could be operational by H2 2023. That list includes Firefly’s Alpha, Relativity’s Terran 1, ABL Space’s RS1, and several other vehicles specifically designed to launch small satellites in the 300-1000 kg range. For a premium over rideshare space on larger rockets, a dedicated launch does tend to include more hands-on service, greater schedule flexibility, and a ride to the optimal orbit.
However, SpaceX’s Falcon 9 rocket ultimately won over the UAE, firmly demonstrating that industry-best pricing paired with the most reliable rocket currently flying is a hard combination to beat.
Tesla launched a new configuration of the Model Y this week, bringing more complexity to its lineup of the vehicle and adding a new, lower entry point for those who require an All-Wheel-Drive car.
However, the broadening of the Model Y lineup in the United States could signal a somewhat uncomfortable reality for Tesla fans and car buyers, who have been vocal about their desire for a larger, full-size SUV.
Tesla has essentially moved in the opposite direction through its closure of the Model X and its continuing expansion of a vehicle that fits the bill for many, but not all.
Tesla brings closure to Model Y moniker with launch of new trim level
While CEO Elon Musk has said that there is the potential for the Model Y L, a longer wheelbase configuration of the vehicle, to enter the U.S. market late this year, it is not a guarantee.
Instead, Tesla has prioritized the need to develop vehicles and trim levels that cater to the future rollout of the Robotaxi ride-hailing service and a fully autonomous future.
But the company could be missing out on a massive opportunity, as SUVs are a widely popular body style in the U.S., especially for families, as the tighter confines of compact SUVs do not support the needs of a large family.
Although there are other companies out there that manufacture this body style, many are interested in sticking with Tesla because of the excellent self-driving platform, expansive charging infrastructure, and software performance the vehicles offer.
Additionally, the lack of variety from an aesthetic and feature standpoint has caused a bit of monotony throughout the Model Y lineup. Although Premium options are available, those three configurations only differ in terms of range and performance, at least for the most part, and the differences are not substantial.
Minor Expansions of the Model Y Fail to Address Family Needs for Space
Offering similar trim levels with slight differences to cater to each consumer’s needs is important. However, these vehicles keep a constant: cargo space and seating capacity.
Larger families need something that would compete with vehicles like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or Cadillac Escalade, and while the Model X was its largest offering, that is going away.
Tesla could fix this issue partially with the rollout of the Model Y L in the U.S., but only if it plans to continue offering various Model Y vehicles and expanding on its offerings with that car specifically. There have been hints toward a Cyber-inspired SUV in the past, but those hints do not seem to be a drastic focus of the company, given its autonomy mission.
Model Y Expansion Doesn’t Boost Performance, Value, or Space
You can throw all the different badges, powertrains, and range ratings on the same vehicle, it does not mean it’s going to sell better. The Model Y was already the best-selling vehicle in the world on several occasions. Adding more configurations seems to be milking it.
The true need of people, especially now that the Model X is going away, is going to be space. What vehicle fits the bill of a growing family, or one that has already outgrown the Model Y?
Not Expanding the Lineup with a New Vehicle Could Be a Missed Opportunity
The U.S. is the world’s largest market for three-row SUVs, yet Tesla’s focus on tweaking the existing Model Y ignores this. This could potentially result in the Osborne Effect, as sales of current models without capturing new customers who need more seating and versatility.
Expansions of the current Model Y offerings risk adding production complexity without addressing core demands, and given that the Model Y L is already being produced in China, it seems like it would be a reasonable decision to build a similar line in Texas.
Listening to consumers means introducing either the Model Y L here, or bringing a new, modern design to the lineup in the form of a full-size SUV.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Elon Musk recently reiterated one of the most ambitious forecasts for Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, stating it could become the first real-world example of a Von Neumann machine. He also noted once more that Optimus would be Tesla’s biggest product.
Musk shared his comments in a series of posts on social media platform X.
Optimus as a von Neumann machine
In response to a post on X that pondered on sci-fi timelines becoming real, Musk wrote that “Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet.” In a separate post, Musk wrote that Optimus will be Tesla’s “biggest product ever,” a phrase he has used in the past to describe the humanoid robot’s importance to the electric vehicle maker.
A Von Neumann machine is a class of theoretical self-replicating systems originally proposed in the mid-20th century by the mathematician John von Neumann. In his concept, von Neumann described machines that could travel to other worlds, use local materials to create copies of themselves, and carry out large-scale tasks without outside intervention.
Elon Musk’s broader plans
Considering Musk’s comments, it appears that Optimus would eventually be capable of performing complex work autonomously in environments beyond Earth. If Optimus could achieve such a feat, it could very well unlock humanity’s capability to explore locations beyond Earth. The idea of space exploration becomes more than feasible.
Elon Musk has discussed space-based AI compute, large-scale robotic production, and the role of SpaceX’s Starship in transporting hardware and materials to other planets. While Musk did not detail how Optimus would fit with SpaceX’s exploration activities, his Von Neumann machine comments suggest he is looking at Tesla’s robotics as part of a potential interplanetary ecosystem.
News
Tesla China January wholesale sales rise 9% year-on-year
Tesla reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 China-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association.
Tesla China reported January wholesale sales of 69,129 Giga Shanghai-made vehicles, as per data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). The figure includes both domestic sales and exports from Gigafactory Shanghai.
The total represented a 9.32% increase from January last year but a 28.86% decline from December’s 97,171 units.
China EV market trends
The CPCA estimated that China’s passenger new energy vehicle wholesale volume reached about 900,000 units in January, up 1% year-on-year but down 42% from December. Demand has been pressured by the start-of-year slow season, a 5% additional purchase tax cost, and uncertainty around the transition of vehicle trade-in subsidies, as noted in a report from CNEV Post.
Market leader BYD sold 210,051 NEVs in January, down 30.11% year-on-year and 50.04% month-on-month, as per data released on February 1. Tesla China’s year-over-year growth then is quite interesting, as the company’s vehicles seem to be selling very well despite headwinds in the market.
Tesla China’s strategies
To counter weaker seasonal demand, Tesla China launched a low-interest financing program on January 6, offering up to seven-year terms on select produced vehicles. The move marked the first time an automaker offered financing of that length in the Chinese market.
Several rivals, including Xiaomi, Li Auto, XPeng, and NIO, later introduced similar incentives. Tesla China then further increased promotions on January 26 by reinstating insurance subsidies for the Model 3 sedan. The CPCA is expected to release Tesla’s China retail sales and export breakdown later this month.
Tesla Model Y lineup expansion signals an uncomfortable reality for consumers
Elon Musk reiterates Tesla Optimus’ most sci-fi potential yet
