News
SpaceX’s twelfth launch and ninth recovery of 2017 ready for a Thursday liftoff
After conducting a successful static fire on Saturday, August 19, SpaceX is ready to undertake their 12th launch of 2017 and the 40th launch of Falcon 9.
The launch window begins Thursday, August 24, at 11:51 a.m. PST and lasts for approximately 40 minutes, allowing for flexibility in the event of a simple scrub or abort. It will see Falcon 9 carry Formosat-5 into a sun-synchronous orbit approximately 600-1000km above the surface of the Earth, where it will be able to best carry out its duties of remote sensing and Earth observation. Developed by Taiwan’s National Space Organization, the satellite will be the country’s first indigenous remote sensing platform in orbit.
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- Formosat-5. (CNC)
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- A diagram illustrating Formosat being encapsulated in Falcon 9’s payload fairing. (CNC)
Formosat-5 was originally contracted to launch aboard Falcon 1, SpaceX’s first orbital launch vehicle. Much smaller than Falcon 9, the original choice of launch vehicle made more sense given the satellite’s small mass of approximately 500 kilograms. After many years of delays, SpaceX had instead arranged for the satellite to be launched as a co-passenger alongside Spaceflight Industries’ first SHERPA launch, an orbital tug and dispenser that would have placed approximately 90 satellites of different sizes into unique orbits. However, after SpaceX experienced two catastrophic failures of Falcon 9 within a period of less than a year and a half, Spaceflight chose to rebook all of those passenger satellites on other launches. In spite of the apparent drama, Spaceflight and SpaceX still plan to work together in the future and SpaceX has several SHERPA launches scheduled over the next several years.
Given the size of Formosat-5 compared to Falcon 9, the satellite will be downright minuscule inside the vehicle’s cavernous payload fairing. While it has been reasonably argued that the dedication of an entire Falcon 9 for a 500 kg payload hints at a significant level of inefficiency in the launch industry, the small payload will allow Falcon 9 to attempt an unusually easy recovery on the ASDS Just Read The Instructions. The fifth West-coast mission for SpaceX, the Falcon 9 will lift off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California before landing in the Pacific Ocean around ten minutes after launch. The choice to land in the ocean has sparked curiosity among fans after photos suggested that SpaceX’s West coast landing zone is complete and all necessary permits and environmental impact reviews have been successfully completed.
SpaceX’s VAFB Landing Zone can be seen in its near-complete state on the left. (NASASpaceflight/Chris Gebhardt)
SpaceX’s only other West-coast missions, seven contracted launches of Iridium’s NEXT constellation, are understood to be too heavy to provide the fuel margins necessary for Falcon 9 to return to the launch site for a landing. As such, the company’s West coast pad may well remain unused well into the future, and SpaceX may simply have chosen to focus their pad engineers on the far more pressing and time sensitive work going on at SpaceX’s East coast launch facilities.
Elon Musk
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX has issued an initial statement about Starship Booster 18’s anomaly early Friday. The incident unfolded during gas-system pressure testing at the company’s Massey facility in Starbase, Texas.
SpaceX’s initial comment
As per SpaceX in a post on its official account on social media platform X, Booster 18 was undergoing gas system pressure tests when the anomaly happened. Despite the nature of the incident, the company emphasized that no propellant was loaded, no engines were installed, and personnel were kept at a safe distance from the booster, resulting in zero injuries.
“Booster 18 suffered an anomaly during gas system pressure testing that we were conducting in advance of structural proof testing. No propellant was on the vehicle, and engines were not yet installed. The teams need time to investigate before we are confident of the cause. No one was injured as we maintain a safe distance for personnel during this type of testing. The site remains clear and we are working plans to safely reenter the site,” SpaceX wrote in its post on X.
Incident and aftermath
Livestream footage from LabPadre showed Booster 18’s lower half crumpling around the liquid oxygen tank area at approximately 4:04 a.m. CT. Subsequent images posted by on-site observers revealed extensive deformation across the booster’s lower structure. Needless to say, spaceflight observers have noted that Booster 18 would likely be a complete loss due to its anomaly.
Booster 18 had rolled out only a day earlier and was one of the first vehicles in the Starship V3 program. The V3 series incorporates structural reinforcements and reliability upgrades intended to prepare Starship for rapid-reuse testing and eventual tower-catch operations. Elon Musk has been optimistic about Starship V3, previously noting on X that the spacecraft might be able to complete initial missions to Mars.
Investor's Corner
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) received fresh support from Piper Sandler this week after analysts toured the Fremont Factory and tested the company’s latest Full Self-Driving software. The firm reaffirmed its $500 price target, stating that FSD V14 delivered a notably smooth robotaxi demonstration and may already perform at levels comparable to, if not better than, average human drivers.
The team also met with Tesla leaders for more than an hour to discuss autonomy, chip development, and upcoming deployment plans.
Analysts highlight autonomy progress
During more than 75 minutes of focused discussions, analysts reportedly focused on FSD v14’s updates. Piper Sandler’s team pointed to meaningful strides in perception, object handling, and overall ride smoothness during the robotaxi demo.
The visit also included discussions on updates to Tesla’s in-house chip initiatives, its Optimus program, and the growth of the company’s battery storage business. Analysts noted that Tesla continues refining cost structures and capital expenditure expectations, which are key elements in future margin recovery, as noted in a Yahoo Finance report.
Analyst Alexander Potter noted that “we think FSD is a truly impressive product that is (probably) already better at driving than the average American.” This conclusion was strengthened by what he described as a “flawless robotaxi ride to the hotel.”
Street targets diverge on TSLA
While Piper Sandler stands by its $500 target, it is not the highest estimate on the Street. Wedbush, for one, has a $600 per share price target for TSLA stock.
Other institutions have also weighed in on TSLA stock as of late. HSBC reiterated a Reduce rating with a $131 target, citing a gap between earnings fundamentals and the company’s market value. By contrast, TD Cowen maintained a Buy rating and a $509 target, pointing to strong autonomous driving demonstrations in Austin and the pace of software-driven improvements.
Stifel analysts also lifted their price target for Tesla to $508 per share over the company’s ongoing robotaxi and FSD programs.
Elon Musk
SpaceX Starship Version 3 booster crumples in early testing
Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
SpaceX’s new Starship first-stage booster, Booster 18, suffered major damage early Friday during its first round of testing in Starbase, Texas, just one day after rolling out of the factory.
Based on videos of the incident, the lower section of the rocket booster appeared to crumple during a pressurization test. Photos of the incident’s aftermath suggest that Booster 18 will likely be retired.
Booster test failure
SpaceX began structural and propellant-system verification tests on Booster 18 Thursday night at the Massey’s Test Site, only a few miles from Starbase’s production facilities, as noted in an Ars Technica report. At 4:04 a.m. CT on Friday, a livestream from LabPadre Space captured the booster’s lower half experiencing a sudden destructive event around its liquid oxygen tank section. Post-incident images, shared on X by @StarshipGazer, showed notable deformation in the booster’s lower structure.
Neither SpaceX nor Elon Musk had commented as of Friday morning, but the vehicle’s condition suggests it is likely a complete loss. This is quite unfortunate, as Booster 18 is already part of the Starship V3 program, which includes design fixes and upgrades intended to improve reliability. While SpaceX maintains a rather rapid Starship production line in Starbase, Booster 18 was generally expected to validate the improvements implemented in the V3 program.
Tight deadlines
SpaceX needs Starship boosters and upper stages to begin demonstrating rapid reuse, tower catches, and early operational Starlink missions over the next two years. More critically, NASA’s Artemis program depends on an on-orbit refueling test in the second half of 2026, a requirement for the vehicle’s expected crewed lunar landing around 2028.
While SpaceX is known for diagnosing failures quickly and returning to testing at unmatched speed, losing the newest-generation booster at the very start of its campaign highlights the immense challenge involved in scaling Starship into a reliable, high-cadence launch system. SpaceX, however, is known for getting things done quickly, so it would not be a surprise if the company manages to figure out what happened to Booster 18 in the near future.
SpaceX issues statement on Starship V3 Booster 18 anomaly
Tesla analyst maintains $500 PT, says FSD drives better than humans now
