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SpaceX’s twelfth launch and ninth recovery of 2017 ready for a Thursday liftoff

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After conducting a successful static fire on Saturday, August 19, SpaceX is ready to undertake their 12th launch of 2017 and the 40th launch of Falcon 9.

The launch window begins Thursday, August 24, at 11:51 a.m. PST and lasts for approximately 40 minutes, allowing for flexibility in the event of a simple scrub or abort. It will see Falcon 9 carry Formosat-5 into a sun-synchronous orbit approximately 600-1000km above the surface of the Earth, where it will be able to best carry out its duties of remote sensing and Earth observation. Developed by Taiwan’s National Space Organization, the satellite will be the country’s first indigenous remote sensing platform in orbit.

Formosat-5 was originally contracted to launch aboard Falcon 1, SpaceX’s first orbital launch vehicle. Much smaller than Falcon 9, the original choice of launch vehicle made more sense given the satellite’s small mass of approximately 500 kilograms. After many years of delays, SpaceX had instead arranged for the satellite to be launched as a co-passenger alongside Spaceflight Industries’ first SHERPA launch, an orbital tug and dispenser that would have placed approximately 90 satellites of different sizes into unique orbits. However, after SpaceX experienced two catastrophic failures of Falcon 9 within a period of less than a year and a half, Spaceflight chose to rebook all of those passenger satellites on other launches. In spite of the apparent drama, Spaceflight and SpaceX still plan to work together in the future and SpaceX has several SHERPA launches scheduled over the next several years.

Given the size of Formosat-5 compared to Falcon 9, the satellite will be downright minuscule inside the vehicle’s cavernous payload fairing. While it has been reasonably argued that the dedication of an entire Falcon 9 for a 500 kg payload hints at a significant level of inefficiency in the launch industry, the small payload will allow Falcon 9 to attempt an unusually easy recovery on the ASDS Just Read The Instructions. The fifth West-coast mission for SpaceX, the Falcon 9 will lift off from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California before landing in the Pacific Ocean around ten minutes after launch. The choice to land in the ocean has sparked curiosity among fans after photos suggested that SpaceX’s West coast landing zone is complete and all necessary permits and environmental impact reviews have been successfully completed.

SpaceX’s VAFB Landing Zone can be seen in its near-complete state on the left. (NASASpaceflight/Chris Gebhardt)

SpaceX’s only other West-coast missions, seven contracted launches of Iridium’s NEXT constellation, are understood to be too heavy to provide the fuel margins necessary for Falcon 9 to return to the launch site for a landing. As such, the company’s West coast pad may well remain unused well into the future, and SpaceX may simply have chosen to focus their pad engineers on the far more pressing and time sensitive work going on at SpaceX’s East coast launch facilities.

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Eric Ralph is Teslarati's senior spaceflight reporter and has been covering the industry in some capacity for almost half a decade, largely spurred in 2016 by a trip to Mexico to watch Elon Musk reveal SpaceX's plans for Mars in person. Aside from spreading interest and excitement about spaceflight far and wide, his primary goal is to cover humanity's ongoing efforts to expand beyond Earth to the Moon, Mars, and elsewhere.

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SpaceX hit with mishap investigation by FAA for Starship Flight 9

Starship’s ninth test flight has the FAA requiring a mishap investigation from SpaceX.

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX has been hit with yet another mishap investigation by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) related to the company’s ninth test flight of Starship earlier this week.

The FAA said the mishap investigation is “focused only on the loss of the Starship vehicle, which did not complete its launch or reentry as planned.” The agency said the loss of the Super Heavy booster is covered by one of the FAA’s approved test induced damage exceptions requested by SpaceX.

All of Starship and Super Heavy booster debris landed within the designated hazard areas, the FAA confirmed.

SpaceX Starship Flight 9 recap: objectives & outcomes

It said it activated a Debris Response Area out of an abundance of caution as the booster “experienced its anomaly over the Gulf of America during its flyback toward Texas. The FAA subsequently determined the debris did not fall outside of the hazard area. During the event there were zero departure delays, one flight was diverted, and one airborne flight was held for 24 minutes. ”

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SpaceX has become accustomed to mishap investigations by the FAA, as they have been impacted by them on several occasions in the past, including on Flight 8. However, they are a precautionary measure and usually are resolved within a few weeks.

Flight 9 was one of SpaceX’s most eventful, as there were several discoveries during the launch. First, it was SpaceX’s first time reusing a Super Heavy booster, as the one utilized for Flight 9 was also used on Flight 7 in January.

Contact with the booster and Starship were both lost during Flight 9. SpaceX said the booster was lost “shortly after the start of landing burn when it experienced a rapid unscheduled disassembly approximately 6 minutes after launch.”

Meanwhile, Starship was set to make a splashdown in the Indian Ocean, but the vehicle was lost about 46 minutes into the flight, SpaceX said in a mission recap.

It was an improvement from the previous two flights, as both 7 and 8 resulted in the loss of Starship after just a few minutes. Flight 9 lasted considerably longer. These flights are also not intended to make it to Mars, despite what other reports might try to tell you.

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These are ways to gain information for when SpaceX eventually tries to get Starship to Mars.

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Investor's Corner

Tesla bull writes cautious note on Robotaxi launch: ‘Keep expectations well contained’

Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas is more cautious about Tesla’s upcoming Robotaxi launch.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla analyst Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley is telling investors to be wary of the Robotaxi details CEO Elon Musk revealed this week, after a report seemed to land on the prospective launch date of the platform in June.

Earlier this week, a report from Bloomberg indicated Tesla had internally landed on a tentative date of June 12 for its Robotaxi launch in Austin. Shortly after, Musk detailed the successful testing Tesla has already performed without anyone in the driver’s seat.

Tesla lands on date for Robotaxi launch in Austin: report

He also indicated Teslas would self-deliver to customers in June.

Analysts are now sending out investor notes on the announcement Musk made, along with the Bloomberg report. Jonas’s note is more cautious than others.

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Jonas believes Tesla needs to shed more details before investors and fans of the company get too excited. He believes there is more information that could be released, but until then, he is suggesting investors “keep expectations well contained.”

He wrote:

“As is typical for highly anticipated Tesla events, we would keep expectations well contained for the (reported) June 12th Cybercab launch event in Austin. However, we would look for a continued stream of updates for the performance and growth of the network thereafter (numbers of cars, miles, trips, etc.) in the days and weeks that follow.”

The tone of Jonas’s note contradicts that of Wedbush’s Dan Ives, who believes the “golden age of autonomous” lies in Tesla’s hands. He seems to believe Tesla will come through on its June 12 launch.

Tesla set for ‘golden age of autonomous’ as Robotaxi nears, ‘dark chapter’ ends: Wedbush

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Morgan Stanley’s note is slightly more

Jonas is obviously still bullish, but is much more tentative to move forward with an attitude that communicates skepticism about what Tesla has revealed.

Jonas and Morgan Stanley have a $410 price target on Tesla shares with a ‘Buy’ rating. Tesla stock is trading at around $358 at 12:15 p.m. on the East Coast.

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Tesla’s apparent affordable model zips around Fremont test track

Tesla was zipping around a strange, covered, compact Model Y at Fremont this week.

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tesla affordable model prototype on fremont factory test track
Credit: Met God in Wilderness | YouTube

Tesla was racing a compact, short, and stocky Model Y with front and rear end covers around its Fremont Factory’s test track today, potentially giving us a look at the upcoming affordable model.

On Thursday, Met God in the Wilderness on YouTube posted a flyover of the Fremont Factory, a weekly occurrence for the channel. This week’s video featured a smaller, more compact Model Y racing around the Test Track at Fremont, trailed by a Cybertruck:

While both bumpers are covered, it still seems to be a much more compact version of the Model Y. There is also the potential that this is the upcoming Model Y Performance, but it seems that this vehicle is smaller than the traditional Model Y. Tesla would not reduce its size this much for the Performance configuration.

With that, it seems more likely it is one of the affordable models.

Tesla still on track to release more affordable models in 1H25

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It also plays into the idea that Tesla is planning to launch vehicles very similar to the Model Y and Model 3. During the last Earnings Call, Tesla VP of Vehicle Engineering Lars Moravy stated that the affordable models the company planned to launch would be of the same form and factor as the Model Y, indicating potentially a stripped-down version of the all-electric crossover:

“I will say it’s important to emphasize that, as we’ve said all along, the full utilization of our factories is the primary goal for these new products. And so flexibility of what we can do within the form factor and, you know, the design of it is really limited to what we can do on our existing lines rather than building new ones.”

This was essentially a read-between-the-lines moment for investors as they took it as the affordable models would not be much different than the Model Y.

This vehicle seems to fit the bill of what Moravy described: it is eerily similar to the Model Y without the lengthened front and rear. While it is still tough to determine exactly what it is, it surely does look to be something that Tesla is keeping under wraps for the short term.

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