Investor's Corner
Strange Bedfellows for Tesla Motors in Michigan
There seems to be some action brewing to combat the direct-to-consumer ban in Michigan by Tesla Motors and some friends. To catch everyone up, legislators in Michigan created an “enhanced” law that would ban automakers from selling vehicles direct-to-consumer or even creating service centers in 2014. Back in 2014, some industry and legal analysts thought the law might even prevent Tesla Motors from showing its vehicles at the Detroit Auto Show in January 2015.
The law is known as the anti-Tesla bill and received a boost from General Motors.
We reported on Tesla’s strategy to overturn state laws in 2015 and the “chairman of the board” if you will, Elon Musk, put it succinctly at the Detroit Auto show last year:
Reporter: Would Tesla ever build cars in Michigan?
Musk: “It’s not out of the question. Maybe Michigan shouldn’t stop us from selling cars here.”
Now, it seems Tesla’s strategy may be to partner with other conservative groups rather than unilaterally taking state legislatures head-on to combat this silly protectionist law. The political allies are illuminating: the Michigan Christian Coalition, Michigan Conservative Energy Forum, Michigan Federation of College Republicans, Michigan Moose Assn.
“It’s time Michigan recognizes the rapidly evolving market changes impacting the new-car industry,” says Michigan Christian Coalition Chairman Keith den Hollander says in a statement and reported on by Wards Automotive. “Consumers want more choices and more convenience,” says Hollander. “They don’t want to be forced by the government to buy their cars from a certain type of monopoly retailer.”
-->More importantly, Tesla Motors made sure millenials in Michigan were part of this coalition. From the Wards article:
“Consumers should be able to choose to shop at a Tesla store or at a traditional dealership, depending on their preference and the kind of car they want to buy,” says Casey Kreiner, chairman of the Michigan Federation of College Republicans.
This should resonate with lawmakers in not only Michigan, but nationwide in a supposed “change” election cycle –not completely buying it. But Don Trump’s traction in large part is due to his hopeless “special interest” influence narrative on state and federal governments. And that’s for real.
Plus, Tesla Motors bought Rivera Tool and Die Company in Michigan late last year and is looking to invest more in the car capital of the U.S., according to the electric carmaker.
For Tesla Motors, the coalition building could be a blueprint for going after other states to open their doors in 2016 and beyond. This could include Texas, Wisconsin, Iowa, South Carolina, Utah, Arizona and Connecticut, where a libertarian strain runs, at least, on the surface.
It also means untapped demographics in cities that would be favorable to Tesla’s brand and upcoming cars, such as the Model 3. The whole capital of Madison, Wisc. — a lot of Priuses — would be overrun by Model 3 cars, Austin, Tex. and affluent cities in Connecticut could help sales for the Model S into 2017.
-->Bottom line, Tesla sees a wounded duck in Governor Rick Snyder and the libertarian streak runs real deep in Michigan. Seeing Tesla Motors in Michigan would be symbolic on many fronts. First and foremost, it could be seen as the U.S. coming out of the protectionist “dark ages” and embracing an alternative (& better) car industry.
Tesla bear Michael Burry got blunt with his beliefs over the company’s valuation, which he called “ridiculously overvalued” in a newsletter to subscribers this past weekend.
“Tesla’s market capitalization is ridiculously overvalued today and has been for a good long time,” Burry, who was the inspiration for the movie The Big Short, and was portrayed by Christian Bale.
Burry went on to say, “As an aside, the Elon cult was all-in on electric cars until competition showed up, then all-in on autonomous driving until competition showed up, and now is all-in on robots — until competition shows up.”
Tesla bear Michael Burry ditches bet against $TSLA, says ‘media inflated’ the situation
For a long time, Burry has been skeptical of Tesla, its stock, and its CEO, Elon Musk, even placing a $530 million bet against shares several years ago. Eventually, Burry’s short position extended to other supporters of the company, including ARK Invest.
-->Tesla has long drawn skepticism from investors and more traditional analysts, who believe its valuation is overblown. However, the company is not traded as a traditional stock, something that other Wall Street firms have recognized.
While many believe the company has some serious pull as an automaker, an identity that helped it reach the valuation it has, Tesla has more than transformed into a robotics, AI, and self-driving play, pulling itself into the realm of some of the most recognizable stocks in tech.
Burry’s Scion Asset Management has put its money where its mouth is against Tesla stock on several occasions, but the firm has not yielded positive results, as shares have increased in value since 2020 by over 115 percent. The firm closed in May.
In 2020, it launched its short position, but by October 2021, it had ditched that position.
Tesla has had a tumultuous year on Wall Street, dipping significantly to around the $220 mark at one point. However, it rebounded significantly in September, climbing back up to the $400 region, as it currently trades at around $430.
-->It closed at $430.14 on Monday.
Investor's Corner
Mizuho keeps Tesla (TSLA) “Outperform” rating but lowers price target
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected.
Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh lowered Tesla’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) price target to $475 from $485, citing potential 2026 EV subsidy cuts in the U.S. and China that could pressure deliveries. The firm maintained its Outperform rating for the electric vehicle maker, however.
As per the Mizuho analyst, upcoming changes to EV incentives in the U.S. and China could affect Tesla’s unit growth more than previously expected. The U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of Tesla’s third-quarter 2025 sales, while China represented about 34%, making both markets highly sensitive to policy shifts. Potential 50% cuts to Chinese subsidies and reduced U.S. incentives affected the firm’s outlook.
With those pressures factored in, the firm now expects Tesla to deliver 1.75 million vehicles in 2026 and 2 million in 2027, slightly below consensus estimates of 1.82 million and 2.15 million, respectively. The analyst was cautiously optimistic, as near-term pressure from subsidies is there, but the company’s long-term tech roadmap remains very compelling.
Despite the revised target, Mizuho remained optimistic on Tesla’s long-term technology roadmap. The firm highlighted three major growth drivers into 2027: the broader adoption of Full Self-Driving V14, the expansion of Tesla’s Robotaxi service, and the commercialization of Optimus, the company’s humanoid robot.
“We are lowering TSLA Ests/PT to $475 with Potential BEV headwinds in 2026E. We believe into 2026E, US (~37% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) EV subsidy cuts and China (34% of TSLA 3Q25 sales) potential 50% EV subsidy cuts could be a headwind to EV deliveries.
-->“We are now estimating TSLA deliveries for 2026/27E at 1.75M/2.00M (slightly below cons. 1.82M/2.15M). We see some LT drivers with FSD v14 adoption for autonomous, robotaxi launches, and humanoid robots into 2027 driving strength,” the analyst noted.
Tesla stock (NASDAQ: TSLA) has landed an elusive “must own” status from Wall Street firm Melius, according to a new note released early this week.
Analyst Rob Wertheimer said Tesla will lead the charge in world-changing tech, given the company’s focus on self-driving, autonomy, and Robotaxi. In a note to investors, Wertheimer said “the world is about to change, dramatically,” because of the advent of self-driving cars.
He looks at the industry and sees many potential players, but the firm says there will only be one true winner:
“Our point is not that Tesla is at risk, it’s that everybody else is.”
The major argument is that autonomy is nearing a tipping point where years of chipping away at the software and data needed to develop a sound, safe, and effective form of autonomous driving technology turn into an avalanche of progress.
Wertheimer believes autonomy is a $7 trillion sector,” and in the coming years, investors will see “hundreds of billions in value shift to Tesla.”
A lot of the major growth has to do with the all-too-common “butts in seats” strategy, as Wertheimer believes that only a fraction of people in the United States have ridden in a self-driving car. In Tesla’s regard, only “tens of thousands” have tried Tesla’s latest Full Self-Driving (Supervised) version, which is v14.
Tesla Full Self-Driving v14.2 – Full Review, the Good and the Bad
When it reaches a widespread rollout and more people are able to experience Tesla Full Self-Driving v14, he believes “it will shock most people.”
Citing things like Tesla’s massive data pool from its vehicles, as well as its shift to end-to-end neural nets in 2021 and 2022, as well as the upcoming AI5 chip, which will be put into a handful of vehicles next year, but will reach a wider rollout in 2027, Melius believes many investors are not aware of the pace of advancement in self-driving.
Tesla’s lead in its self-driving efforts is expanding, Wertheimer says. The company is making strategic choices on everything from hardware to software, manufacturing, and overall vehicle design. He says Tesla has left legacy automakers struggling to keep pace as they still rely on outdated architectures and fragmented supplier systems.
Tesla shares are up over 6 percent at 10:40 a.m. on the East Coast, trading at around $416.
Tesla bear gets blunt with beliefs over company valuation
Tesla is making a change to its exterior cameras with a potential upgrade
