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Tesla may be underpromising on its 2021 vehicle delivery guidance: insider
Tesla may not have provided a specific number for its 2021 vehicle delivery guidance, but it appears that the electric car maker is, at least internally, aiming for new records this year.
Back in the Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Elon Musk remarked that Tesla would likely be able to “maintain a growth rate in excess of 50% per year for many years to come.” Musk added that he believes Tesla will track “a fair bit above 50%” for 2021, though he also noted that he does not want to commit to a specific number.
A recent rumor from an individual reportedly familiar with the electric car maker’s plans has now suggested that Tesla might be sandbagging its 2021 estimates. Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt, who shared the rumor on Twitter, confirmed with Teslarati that the information came from an insider familiar with the electric car maker’s sales strategy this year.
According to the insider, Tesla is internally looking to deliver 1 million vehicles in 2021, which should effectively double its already-record-breaking numbers in 2020. This is notably higher than the estimates shared by Elon Musk during the fourth-quarter earnings call. However, it should be noted that Tesla bulls have already been speculating that the company was intentionally sandbagging its 2021 delivery estimates, especially considering the recent developments in facilities like Gigafactory Shanghai and the Fremont Factory.
Tesla is currently in the process of refining the operations of its Giga Presses in the Fremont Factory. The machines, which manufacture the megacast for the Model Y’s rear underbody, can increase the company’s numbers at the Fremont Factory by making the all-electric crossover’s production simpler. In Shanghai, Tesla is also still only in the first months of the Model Y’s ramp. Tesla is aiming to start operations in Gigafactory Berlin, and perhaps even Giga Texas as well.
I (as well as many others) have said that we all believed Tesla was sandbagging their 50% delivery growth guidance for this year and felt they likely had an internal goal of 1M. This source has now confirmed that to me. Of course things can change, but that's the word for now 🙂
— Sawyer Merritt (@SawyerMerritt) February 16, 2021
While the recent rumors about Tesla’s internal targets are exciting, the fact that Tesla is sharing conservative estimates for its 2021 delivery guidance is quite admirable, if not a step away from Elon Musk’s typically optimistic targets. Such a thing would be quite beneficial for the electric car maker to a point, after all, especially since Elon Musk’s overly-aggressive timetables have resulted in the company struggling to meet its publicly-stated goals in the past.
That being said, with all of Tesla’s vehicle production facilities producing EVs this year, the idea of the electric car maker delivering 1 million cars for 2021 does not sound too farfetched at all.
Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.
Elon Musk
Tesla kicks Robotaxi geofence expansion into high gear in Austin
Tesla has nearly doubled its Robotaxi geofence in Austin for the second time less than two months after it initially launched.

Tesla has kicked the expansion of its Robotaxi geofence in Austin, Texas, into high gear, as it grew the service area once again early Sunday morning.
Tesla launched its Robotaxi platform in Austin on June 22, and less than a month later, it was able to expand it. After its first expansion, Tesla had a larger geofence than Waymo, which launched its driverless ride-hailing service to the public in Austin in March. Waymo expanded the week after Tesla’s first augmentation.
Waymo responds to Tesla’s Robotaxi expansion in Austin with bold statement
Now, Tesla has answered Waymo once again by developing its service area in Austin to an even larger size. We expected it, as just two weeks ago, CEO Elon Musk said that the company would be growing the Austin geofence, but did not give an indication by how much.
The first geofence in Austin was roughly 20 square miles. On July 14, when the first expansion took place, Tesla Robotaxi riders had roughly 42 square miles of downtown Austin available for travel.
On the morning of August 3, Tesla nearly doubled the geofence by growing it to roughly 80 square miles, according to Grok. For reference, Waymo’s current service area in Austin is about 90 square miles:
For those asking me, here is a comparison of the newly expanded @Tesla @robotaxi
service area (as of 3 August 2025) and the newly expanded Waymo service areas in Austin, Texas.The autonomous ride hailing service area & system capabilities scalability is certainly being tested… pic.twitter.com/uaPpEP66Cq
— Joe Tegtmeyer 🚀 🤠🛸😎 (@JoeTegtmeyer) August 3, 2025
The expansion further extends the Southern portion of the geofence, going into suburban zones such as Barton Creek.
The continuous growth shows Tesla is prepared to extend its geofence in basically any direction. Now that it is going into suburban areas, we may get to see more Austin residents experience Robotaxi for an entire evening of activities, including pickup and dropoff at home.
🚨 Tesla Austin Robotaxi geofence sizes (in square miles):
Initial: 6/22 – ~20 square miles
First Expansion: 7/14 – ~42 square miles
Second Expansion: 8/3 – ~80 square miles pic.twitter.com/IwnvSJseE4
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) August 3, 2025
The only question that remains is how much Tesla can expand at one time. The company seems to have the ability to push the geofence to a majority of Austin, but it maintains that safety is its biggest priority.
The company was spotted testing vehicles in the West Austin suburbs in areas like Marble Falls recently, indicating that Tesla could be expanding its service area to hundreds of square miles in the coming months.
Elon Musk
Tesla to appeal jury verdict that held it partially liable for fatal crash
Tesla will appeal the decision from the eight-person jury.

Tesla will appeal a recent jury verdict that held it partially liable for a fatal crash that occurred in Key Largo, Florida, in 2019.
An eight-person jury ruled that Tesla’s driver assistance technology was at least partially to blame for a crash when a vehicle driven by George McGee went off the road and hit a couple, killing a 22-year-old and injuring the other.
The jury found that Tesla’s tech was found to enable McGee to take his eyes off the road, despite the company warning drivers and vehicle operators that its systems are not a replacement for a human driver.
The company states on its website and Owner’s Manual that Autopilot and Full Self-Driving are not fully autonomous, and that drivers must be ready to take over in case of an emergency. Its website says:
“Autopilot is a driver assistance system that is intended to be used only with a fully attentive driver. It does not turn a Tesla into a fully autonomous vehicle.
Before enabling Autopilot, you must agree to ‘keep your hands on the steering wheel at all times’ and to always ‘maintain control and responsibility for your vehicle.’ Once engaged, Autopilot will also deliver an escalating series of visual and audio warnings, reminding you to place your hands on the wheel if insufficient torque is applied or your vehicle otherwise detects you may not be attentive enough to the road ahead. If you repeatedly ignore these warnings, you will be locked out from using Autopilot during that trip.
You can override any of Autopilot’s features at any time by steering or applying the accelerator at any time.”
Despite this, and the fact that McGee admitted to “fishing for his phone” after it fell, Tesla was ordered to pay hundreds of millions in damages.
Tesla attorney Joel Smith said in court (via Washington Post):
“He said he was fishing for his phone. It’s a fact. That happens in any car. That isolates the cause. The cause is he dropped his cell phone.”
In total, Tesla is responsible for $324 million in payouts: $200 million in punitive damages, $35 million to the deceased’s mother, $24 million to their father, and $70 million to their boyfriend, who was also struck but was injured and not killed.
The family of the deceased, Naibel Benavides Leon, also sued the driver and reached a settlement out of court. The family opened the federal suit against Tesla in 2024, alleging that Tesla was to blame because it operated its technology on a road “it was not designed for,” the report states.
Despite the disclosures and warnings Tesla lists in numerous places to its drivers and users of both Autopilot and Full Self-Driving, as well as all of its active safety features, the operator remains responsible for paying attention.
CEO Elon Musk confirmed it would appeal the jury’s decision:
We will
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) August 1, 2025
The driver being distracted is a big part of this case that seemed to be forgotten as the jury came to its decision. Tesla’s disclosures and warnings, as well as McGee’s admission of being distracted, seem to be enough to take any responsibility off the company.
The appeal process will potentially shed more light on this, especially as this will be a main point of emphasis for Tesla’s defense team.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk echoes worries over Tesla control against activist shareholders
Elon Musk has spoken on several occasions of the “activist shareholders” who threaten his role at Tesla.

Elon Musk continues to raise concerns over his control of Tesla as its CEO and one of its founders, as activist shareholders seem to be a viable threat to the company in his eyes.
Musk has voiced concerns over voting control of Tesla and the possibility of him being ousted by shareholders who do not necessarily have the company’s future in mind. Instead, they could be looking to oust Musk because of his political beliefs or because of his vast wealth.
We saw an example of that as shareholders voted on two separate occasions to award Musk a 2018 compensation package that was earned as Tesla met various growth goals through the CEO’s leadership.
Despite shareholders voting to award Musk with the compensation package on two separate occasions, once in 2018 and again in 2024, Delaware Chancery Court Judge Kathaleen McCormick denied the CEO the money both times. At one time, she called it an “unfathomable sum.”
Musk’s current stake in Tesla stands at 12.8 percent, but he has an option to purchase 304 million shares, which, if exercised, after taxes, he says, would bump his voting control up about 4 percent.
However, this is not enough of a stake in the company, as he believes a roughly 25 percent ownership stake would be enough “to be influential, but not so much that I can’t be overturned,” he said in January 2024.
I am uncomfortable growing Tesla to be a leader in AI & robotics without having ~25% voting control. Enough to be influential, but not so much that I can’t be overturned.
Unless that is the case, I would prefer to build products outside of Tesla. You don’t seem to understand…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) January 15, 2024
Musk’s concerns were echoed in another X post from Thursday, where he confirmed he has no current personal loans against Tesla stock, and he reiterated his concerns of being ousted from the company by those he has referred to in the past as “activist shareholders.”
The CEO said during the company’s earnings call in late July:
“That is a major concern for me, as I’ve mentioned in the past. I hope that is addressed at the upcoming shareholders’ meeting. But, yeah, it is a big deal. I want to find that I’ve got so little control that I can easily be ousted by activist shareholders after having built this army of humanoid robots. I think my control over Tesla, Inc. should be enough to ensure that it goes in a good direction, but not so much control that I can’t be thrown out if I go crazy.”
The X post from Thursday said:
Just fyi I don’t have personal loans at this time against Tesla stock.
Also, the taxes on the options are ~45%, so net gain in voting control is more like 4%.
It is worrying in that I don’t want to build millions of robots and then potentially be ousted by activists and…
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) July 31, 2025
There is a concern that Musk could eventually put his money where his mouth is, and if politicians and judges are able to limit his ownership stake as they’ve been able to do with his pay package, he could eventually leave the company.
The company’s shareholders voted overwhelmingly to approve Musk’s pay package. A vast majority of those who voted to get Musk paid still want him to be running Tesla’s day-to-day operations. Without his guidance, the company could face a major restructuring and would have a vastly new look and thesis.
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