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Tesla may be underpromising on its 2021 vehicle delivery guidance: insider

Credit: teslaphotographer/Instagram

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Tesla may not have provided a specific number for its 2021 vehicle delivery guidance, but it appears that the electric car maker is, at least internally, aiming for new records this year. 

Back in the Q4 FY 2020 earnings call, Elon Musk remarked that Tesla would likely be able to “maintain a growth rate in excess of 50% per year for many years to come.” Musk added that he believes Tesla will track “a fair bit above 50%” for 2021, though he also noted that he does not want to commit to a specific number. 

One of Tesla’s Giga Press machines installed at the Fremont Factory. (Credit: Gabeincal/YouTube)

A recent rumor from an individual reportedly familiar with the electric car maker’s plans has now suggested that Tesla might be sandbagging its 2021 estimates. Tesla investor Sawyer Merritt, who shared the rumor on Twitter, confirmed with Teslarati that the information came from an insider familiar with the electric car maker’s sales strategy this year. 

According to the insider, Tesla is internally looking to deliver 1 million vehicles in 2021, which should effectively double its already-record-breaking numbers in 2020. This is notably higher than the estimates shared by Elon Musk during the fourth-quarter earnings call. However, it should be noted that Tesla bulls have already been speculating that the company was intentionally sandbagging its 2021 delivery estimates, especially considering the recent developments in facilities like Gigafactory Shanghai and the Fremont Factory. 

Tesla is currently in the process of refining the operations of its Giga Presses in the Fremont Factory. The machines, which manufacture the megacast for the Model Y’s rear underbody, can increase the company’s numbers at the Fremont Factory by making the all-electric crossover’s production simpler. In Shanghai, Tesla is also still only in the first months of the Model Y’s ramp. Tesla is aiming to start operations in Gigafactory Berlin, and perhaps even Giga Texas as well. 

While the recent rumors about Tesla’s internal targets are exciting, the fact that Tesla is sharing conservative estimates for its 2021 delivery guidance is quite admirable, if not a step away from Elon Musk’s typically optimistic targets. Such a thing would be quite beneficial for the electric car maker to a point, after all, especially since Elon Musk’s overly-aggressive timetables have resulted in the company struggling to meet its publicly-stated goals in the past. 

That being said, with all of Tesla’s vehicle production facilities producing EVs this year, the idea of the electric car maker delivering 1 million cars for 2021 does not sound too farfetched at all. 

Don’t hesitate to contact us for news tips. Just send a message to tips@teslarati.com to give us a heads up.

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving pricing strategy eliminates one recurring complaint

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s new Full Self-Driving pricing strategy will eliminate one recurring complaint that many owners have had in the past: FSD transfers.

In the past, if a Tesla owner purchased the Full Self-Driving suite outright, the company did not allow them to transfer the purchase to a new vehicle, essentially requiring them to buy it all over again, which could obviously get pretty pricey.

This was until Q3 2023, when Tesla allowed a one-time amnesty to transfer Full Self-Driving to a new vehicle, and then again last year.

Tesla is now allowing it to happen again ahead of the February 14th deadline.

The program has given people the opportunity to upgrade to new vehicles with newer Hardware and AI versions, especially those with Hardware 3 who wish to transfer to AI4, without feeling the drastic cost impact of having to buy the $8,000 suite outright on several occasions.

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Now, that issue will never be presented again.

Last night, Tesla CEO Elon Musk announced on X that the Full Self-Driving suite would only be available in a subscription platform, which is the other purchase option it currently offers for FSD use, priced at just $99 per month.

Tesla is shifting FSD to a subscription-only model, confirms Elon Musk

Having it available in a subscription-only platform boasts several advantages, including the potential for a tiered system that would potentially offer less expensive options, a pay-per-mile platform, and even coupling the program with other benefits, like Supercharging and vehicle protection programs.

While none of that is confirmed and is purely speculative, the one thing that does appear to be a major advantage is that this will completely eliminate any questions about transferring the Full Self-Driving suite to a new vehicle. This has been a particular point of contention for owners, and it is now completely eliminated, as everyone, apart from those who have purchased the suite on their current vehicle.

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Now, everyone will pay month-to-month, and it could make things much easier for those who want to try the suite, justifying it from a financial perspective.

The important thing to note is that Tesla would benefit from a higher take rate, as more drivers using it would result in more data, which would help the company reach its recently-revealed 10 billion-mile threshold to reach an Unsupervised level. It does not cost Tesla anything to run FSD, only to develop it. If it could slice the price significantly, more people would buy it, and more data would be made available.

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Tesla Model 3 and Model Y dominates U.S. EV market in 2025

The figures were detailed in Kelley Blue Book’s Q4 2025 U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Report.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla’s Model 3 and Model Y continued to overwhelmingly dominate the United States’ electric vehicle market in 2025. New sales data showed that Tesla’s two mass market cars maintained a commanding segment share, with the Model 3 posting year-to-date growth and the Model Y remaining resilient despite factory shutdowns tied to its refresh.

The figures were detailed in Kelley Blue Book’s Q4 2025 U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Report.

Model 3 and Model Y are still dominant

According to the report, Tesla delivered an estimated 192,440 Model 3 sedans in the United States in 2025, representing a 1.3% year-to-date increase compared to 2024. The Model 3 alone accounted for 15.9% of all U.S. EV sales, making it one of the highest-volume electric vehicles in the country.

The Model Y was even more dominant. U.S. deliveries of the all-electric crossover reached 357,528 units in 2025, a 4.0% year-to-date decline from the prior year. It should be noted, however, that the drop came during a year that included production shutdowns at Tesla’s Fremont Factory and Gigafactory Texas as the company transitioned to the new Model Y. Even with those disruptions, the Model Y captured an overwhelming 39.5% share of the market, far surpassing any single competitor.

Combined, the Model 3 and Model Y represented more than half of all EVs sold in the United States during 2025, highlighting Tesla’s iron grip on the country’s mass-market EV segment.

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Tesla’s challenges in 2025

Tesla’s sustained performance came amid a year of elevated public and political controversy surrounding Elon Musk, whose political activities in the first half of the year ended up fueling a narrative that the CEO’s actions are damaging the automaker’s consumer appeal. However, U.S. sales data suggest that demand for Tesla’s core vehicles has remained remarkably resilient.

Based on Kelley Blue Book’s Q4 2025 U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Report, Tesla’s most expensive offerings such as the Tesla Cybertruck, Model S, and Model X, all saw steep declines in 2025. This suggests that mainstream EV buyers might have had a price issue with Tesla’s more expensive offerings, not an Elon Musk issue. 

Ultimately, despite broader EV market softness, with total U.S. EV sales slipping about 2% year-to-date, Tesla still accounted for 58.9% of all EV deliveries in 2025, according to the report. This means that out of every ten EVs sold in the United States in 2025, more than half of them were Teslas. 

Q4 2025 Kelley Blue Book EV Sales Report by Simon Alvarez

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Tesla Model 3 and Model Y earn Euro NCAP Best in Class safety awards

“The company’s best-selling Model Y proved the gold standard for small SUVs,” Euro NCAP noted.

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Credit: Tesla Europe & Middle East

Tesla won dual categories in the Euro NCAP Best in Class awards, with the Model 3 being named the safest Large Family Car and the Model Y being recognized as the safest Small SUV.

The feat was highlighted by Tesla Europe & Middle East in a post on its official account on social media platform X.

Model 3 and Model Y lead their respective segments

As per a press release from the Euro NCAP, the organization’s Best in Class designation is based on a weighted assessment of four key areas: Adult Occupant, Child Occupant, Vulnerable Road User, and Safety Assist. Only vehicles that achieved a 5-star Euro NCAP rating and were evaluated with standard safety equipment are eligible for the award.

Euro NCAP noted that the updated Tesla Model 3 performed particularly well in Child Occupant protection, while its Safety Assist score reflected Tesla’s ongoing improvements to driver-assistance systems. The Model Y similarly stood out in Child Occupant protection and Safety Assist, reinforcing Tesla’s dual-category win. 

“The company’s best-selling Model Y proved the gold standard for small SUVs,” Euro NCAP noted.

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Euro NCAP leadership shares insights

Euro NCAP Secretary General Dr. Michiel van Ratingen said the organization’s Best in Class awards are designed to help consumers identify the safest vehicles over the past year.

Van Ratingen noted that 2025 was Euro NCAP’s busiest year to date, with more vehicles tested than ever before, amid a growing variety of electric cars and increasingly sophisticated safety systems. While the Mercedes-Benz CLA ultimately earned the title of Best Performer of 2025, he emphasized that Tesla finished only fractionally behind in the overall rankings.

“It was a close-run competition,” van Ratingen said. “Tesla was only fractionally behind, and new entrants like firefly and Leapmotor show how global competition continues to grow, which can only be a good thing for consumers who value safety as much as style, practicality, driving performance, and running costs from their next car.”

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