Tesla has been pretty open about the idea that its next-generation of vehicles and its 20 million EV target for 2030 would rely on its ability to scale its 4680 battery production. This task, at least according to experts, has proven to be especially challenging.
Unveiled during Battery Day nearly two years ago, 4680 cells are expected to provide Tesla with substantial manufacturing cost reductions and efficiencies. According to statements from several experts in the field, the use of larger cells and a dry-coat electrode process could enable Tesla to halve the cost of a Model Y battery.
Twelve experts who are reportedly close to Tesla, or at least familiar with the company’s new battery technology, shared their insights with Reuters. Among the 12 experts, nine reportedly have close ties to Tesla, while three have examined the company’s previous battery technology thoroughly through an extensive teardown.
According to the publication’s sources, Tesla is only halfway towards its goal of successfully rolling out its 4680 cells. While the EV maker already sees benefits from the use of larger cells, Tesla is still reportedly seeing challenges with scaling its dry-coat electrode process.
This, according to the experts, was because Tesla’s dry-coat electrode process is so new and unproven that the company is still having trouble scaling its operations to the point where savings become substantial. Still, the publication’s sources have stated that Tesla would probably still be able to fully implement its 4680 cells’ dry coat electrode process next year.
2019 Nobel laureate and lithium-ion battery pioneer Stan Whittingham believes that Tesla would ultimately solve the challenges associated with its 4680 battery production ramp, though he also noted that Elon Musk might have been too optimistic with his target timeframe for the next-generation batteries’ rollout. “I think he will solve it, but it won’t be as quick as he likes. It’s going to take some time to really test it,” Whittingham said.
Reuters‘ sources noted that if all the potential efficiencies from the use of 4680 batteries are realized, the manufacturing cost for the Model Y’s 4680 structural battery could fall to just about $5,000-$5,500 — roughly half the cost of a 2170 pack. So far, Tesla is reportedly seeing about $2,000 to $3,000 worth of cost savings, mainly due to its use of bigger cells.
With Tesla’s 2170 battery packs, the company reportedly uses about 4,400 cells for the Model Y. The 2170 packs also require 17,600 points that need to be welded — about four welds per cell — to create a battery that can be integrated into the all-electric crossover. This is reduced significantly with the use of 4680 cells. The experts noted that Tesla only needs 830 cells for its Model Y 4680 structural pack, and since there are only two weld points for each cell, the total weld points per vehicle drops to just 1,660 points.
But while Tesla has made tons of headway with its 4680 batteries, and while the company already sees savings due to its use of larger cells, the EV maker still needs to master and scale its dry electrode process. Once that’s done, Tesla could effectively attain the holy grail of its next-generation batteries. “Bulking up the battery cell helped a lot in boosting efficiency, but pushing for 50% cost savings for the cell as a whole is another matter. That will depend on whether Tesla can deploy the dry-coating process successfully in a factory,” one of Reuters‘ sources said.
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Tesla avoids California sales suspension after DMV review
The agency confirmed Tuesday that Tesla has taken “corrective action.”
Tesla will not face a 30-day sales suspension in California after the state’s Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) stated that the company has come into compliance regarding the marketing of its automated-driving features.
The agency confirmed Tuesday that Tesla has taken “corrective action” following a prior ruling over how it promoted Autopilot and Full Self-Driving (FSD), as noted in a Bloomberg News report.
The California DMV had previously given Tesla 90 days to address concerns that were raised by an administrative judge. Regulators had alleged that Tesla overstated the capabilities of its driver-assist systems, which were branded as Autopilot and Full Self-Driving.
A potential 30-day suspension of vehicle sales in California was on the table if Tesla had failed to comply. On Tuesday, however, the DMV stated that Tesla had met the requirements to avoid that penalty, though it did not provide detailed specifics about the changes that were made.
That being said, Tesla did discontinue its standalone Autopilot product in January and has ramped the marketing of its most advanced driver-assistance package available to consumers today, Full Self Driving (Supervised). From its naming, FSD (Supervised) clearly emphasizes that the system, despite its advanced features, still requires driver attention.
Following reports of a potential sales ban in California, Tesla clarified the matter on X, stating that the issue “was a ‘consumer protection’ order about the use of the term ‘Autopilot’ in a case where not one single customer came forward to say there’s a problem.” Tesla also noted that “Sales in California will continue uninterrupted.”
Tesla has not issued a comment about the matter as of writing.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk confirms Tesla Cybercab pricing and consumer release date
Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla does intend to sell a version of the Cybercab for less than $30,000 by 2027.
Elon Musk has confirmed that Tesla does intend to sell a version of the Cybercab for less than $30,000 by 2027. He shared the update in a post on social media platform X.
Amidst Tesla’s announcement that the first Cybercab has been produced at Giga Texas’ production line, some members of the Tesla community immediately started joking about how the milestone will affect a wager shared by popular YouTube tech reviewer Marques Brownlee (MKBHD.)
Following Tesla’s We, Robot event in October 2024, MKBHD noted that while the Cybercab was impressive in a lot of ways, he is very skeptical about Elon Musk’s estimate that the autonomous two-seater could be sold to consumers for below $30,000 around 2027.
“I think the obvious red flag, the biggest red flag to me is the timeline stuff. This is notorious Elon stuff. He gets on stage, he says we’re going to have this vehicle out for $30,000 before 2027,” he said, adding “No, they’re not. There’s just no way that they’re actually going to be able to do that. I mean, if they do, let’s say they do, I will shave my head on camera because I’m that confident.”
It was then no surprise that meme images of MKBHD with his head shaved immediately spread on X following Tesla’s announcement that the first Cybercab has been built at Giga Texas. One of these, which was posted by longtime FSD tester Whole Mars Catalog, received a response from Elon Musk. The CEO responded with the words “Gonna happen,” together with a laughing emoji.
Apart from riding jokes about MKBHD’s wager, Musk also confirmed that Tesla will be selling a Cybercab to regular consumers before 2027, and the vehicle will be priced for $30,000 or less. In response to an X user who asked if the exact scenario will be happening, Musk responded with a simple “Yes.”
While the first Cybercab has been produced at Giga Texas, it would not be surprising if the following months will only see low volumes of the autonomous two seater being produced. As per Elon Musk in previous comments, the Cybercab’s early production will likely be slow, but it will eventually be extremely fast. “For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” he said.
Elon Musk
First Tesla Cybercab rolls off Giga Texas production line
Tesla’s official account on X shared an image showing employees gathered around the first Cybercab built at Gigafactory Texas.
Tesla has produced the first Tesla Cybercab at Texas Gigafactory, marking a key milestone ahead of the planned autonomous two-seater’s production in April. The two-seat Robotaxi, which was unveiled in 2024, is designed without pedals or a steering wheel and represents Tesla’s most aggressive step yet toward fully autonomous mobility.
Tesla’s official account on X shared an image showing employees gathered around the first Cybercab built at Gigafactory Texas. Elon Musk echoed the milestone, writing, “Congratulations to the Tesla team on making the first production Cybercab!”
Previous comments from Musk on X reiterated the idea that production of the Cybercab “starts in April.” The vehicle will launch without traditional driver controls, and it will rely entirely on Tesla’s vision-based Full Self-Driving (FSD) system.
The Cybercab is positioned to compete with autonomous services such as Waymo. While Tesla has deployed Model Y vehicles in limited Robotaxi operations in Austin and the Bay Area, a serious ramp of the service to other cities across the United States is yet to be implemented. The production of the Cybercab could then be seen as a push towards the company’s autonomy plans.
Musk has linked the Cybercab to Tesla’s proposed “Unboxed” manufacturing process, which would assemble large vehicle modules separately before integrating them, rather than following a traditional production line. The approach is intended to cut costs, reduce factory footprint, and speed up output.
That being said, Elon Musk has set expectations for the Cybercab’s production ramp. As per Musk, it would likely take some time before meaningful volumes of the Cybercab are produced because it is such a new and different vehicle. But when the vehicle hits its pace, volumes will be notable.
“Initial production is always very slow and follows an S-curve. The speed of production ramp is inversely proportionate to how many new parts and steps there are. For Cybercab and Optimus, almost everything is new, so the early production rate will be agonizingly slow, but eventually end up being insanely fast,” Musk noted.
Tesla avoids California sales suspension after DMV review
Elon Musk confirms Tesla Cybercab pricing and consumer release date
