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Lucid CEO shares thoughts on EV batteries, range, and Tesla’s 4680 battery cells

Credit: u/geniuzdesign | Reddit

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Lucid CEO Peter Rawlinson recently shared his thoughts about the electric vehicle industry, the battle for range supremacy, and rival Tesla’s efforts to develop and produce its own 4680 cells. According to the CEO, the range of electric vehicles may see some surprising trends in the distant future, and Tesla’s 4680 cells may not be as big of a breakthrough as initially expected. 

Rawlinson’s recent comments were shared in an extensive interview with IEEE Spectrum. As a company, Lucid is known to work extremely hard to maximize the range in its vehicles, with the Air sedan, its first car, becoming the first electric vehicle that received an EPA rating above 500 miles per charge. Using the same 2170 cells that are powering vehicles like the Tesla Model 3 and the Rivian R1T, Lucid’s six Air sedan variants have seized the top six spots in the EPA’s range rankings. 

The Lucid CEO is not a proponent of simply using more batteries to extend range, similar to what companies like GM are doing with the 350-mile Hummer EV’s 200 kWh battery or what Rivian seems to be doing with the ~400-mile R1T’s 180 kWh pack. As per IEEE, Rawlinson calls such strategies as “dumb range.” This was definitely something that Lucid avoided with the Air sedan, as the vehicle is able to achieve its class-leading 131 MPGe with a 118 kWh battery pack. 

Interestingly enough, Rawlinson believes that while there is a battle for range in the electric vehicle sector today, this would likely not be the case in the future. With electric vehicles becoming more commonplace and affordable, and with home charging becoming the norm, the Lucid CEO believes that future electric vehicles may actually have less range. “Fifty or sixty years from now, EVs may actually have less range. Psychologically, there won’t be this sort of paranoia and dependence on a public supercharging network. And home charging is healthier for the battery, anyway,” the Lucid CEO said. 

Rawlinson did not seem particularly convinced that some near-term battery breakthroughs are at hand. In the case of Tesla’s 4680 cells, for example, the Lucid CEO noted that he sees potential in the technology. But the upcoming batteries seem more like a triumph of packaging, not of chemistry, with its tightly packed jelly rolls that allow more active cell material vs its surrounding casting. Ultimately, Rawlinson noted that the idea of 4680 batteries being a huge breakthrough is a “fantasy.”

“I do think there’s an upside to going to large format. That would reduce internal resistance, and that’s a valuable step forward. But people are looking at 4680 as this huge breakthrough, and that’s a fantasy,” the Lucid CEO said. 

Time would likely prove or disprove Rawlinson’s recent insights on the electric vehicle battery industry. Batteries are only getting better with time, for example, so there may eventually be a point where even extremely affordable electric cars could have range that’s comparable to premium EVs today. Tesla’s 4680 cells could also prove to be a difference-maker in manufacturing, as the cells are specifically designed to lower costs

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Ultimately, the 4680 cells may not necessarily be a silver bullet in the electric vehicle transition, but when they’re coupled with incremental improvements in battery chemistries, dry electrode technologies, structural battery concepts, and the use of megacastings, they could form the backbone for the next generation of mass-market vehicles that may very well take the world by storm. The next few years of Tesla’s growth, which would be represented by the rise of vehicles like the Cybertruck and the Semi, would likely determine just how much potential the 4680 cells really have. 

Peter Rawlinson’s full insights from his interview with IEEE Spectrum could be accessed here

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Simon is an experienced automotive reporter with a passion for electric cars and clean energy. Fascinated by the world envisioned by Elon Musk, he hopes to make it to Mars (at least as a tourist) someday. For stories or tips--or even to just say a simple hello--send a message to his email, simon@teslarati.com or his handle on X, @ResidentSponge.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk sheds two new bits of detail on Starship after 13th test launch

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Credit: SpaceX

Elon Musk shed two new bits of detail on Starship following its 13th test launch, which was an overwhelming success.

SpaceX launched Starship for the 13th time last Friday after two delays: one on Monday when several Raptor engines did not ignite, and another on Thursday due to unfavorable weather conditions in Starbase, Texas.

The launch was overwhelmingly successful. SpaceX was able to complete a necessary test of the heat shield tiles by increasing the acceleration of Starship from launch throughout the flight; 20 Starlink v3 satellites were released with no issue; the Super Heavy Booster landed safely in the Gulf of America, Ship successfully reignited engines while in space; and it also splashed down without incident in the Indian Ocean.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

Nevertheless, more details are coming out about Starship, and Musk is doing the talking.

Starship Will Be Retrieved in the Ocean

Musk revealed on Tuesday night that Starship would be recovered by a ship in the Indian Ocean. SpaceX routinely tries to recover Starship after splashdown in an effort to find out more about the flight by examining the spacecraft afterward.

This helps engineers find out more about why things might have happened, allows them to examine any potential damage or anomalies that might have occurred, and increases the chances of an even more successful flight next time thanks to the additional information recovered.

Ship Could Have Been Caught by Tower Arms, Musk claims

Musk has already indicated that SpaceX will plan to attempt a catch of Starship with the 14th test flight. While this would be a major accomplishment, it would be an expected next step, considering the fact that the Super Heavy Booster has already been caught by the chopsticks on numerous occasions.

A ship catch would be a great indication of where SpaceX stands in terms of reusability and launch cadence. A successful catch with relatively no incidents would be a good sign that SpaceX is nearing a more frequent launch of Starship, but also that the reusability of the massive rocket would be something many would expect in the near future.

It is a necessity to make life multiplanetary.

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Elon Musk

Elon Musk updates the SpaceX timeline for Mars

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Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX
Rendering of a colonized Mars by way of SpaceX

Elon Musk has updated his timeline for when humans will walk on Mars and for when ships will simply get there.

The objective of getting to Mars has been one of Musk’s biggest goals since becoming a serial entrepreneur and realizing that time on Earth is limited. Musk has said several times he hopes to die on Mars, and not by impact.

Musk now believes that people will be on Mars in “roughly 5 to 7 years.” He said that a Mars lander will get there “a few years sooner.”

The response from Musk comes after NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said that SpaceX’s biggest priority is the Moon and not Mars. Because of this, Isaacman conceded that he believes nuclear power and propulsion investments will provide “potentially the pathway with the fewest miracles required to put four people on Mars in the next 10 to 15 years.”

Of course, this is what NASA can do through taxpayer funding and nuclear investments, he added.

Musk’s grand ambitions are much more optimistic than most, and it is certainly a double-edged sword. This is not the first time timelines for Mars have been somewhat lofty, especially to those normal thinkers like you and me, not super geniuses like Musk.

SpaceX Board has set a Mars bonus for Elon Musk

In fact, the SpaceX and Tesla frontman has said on at least a dozen occasions that we could be on Mars in the coming years. Musk said 2020 would be the big year as early as 2009. In 2020, he was “highly confident” of a landing in 2026, and had even said 2024 in a best-case scenario.

The point is, the range has varied, and it’s anyone’s guess when we’ll get there. This latest adjustment to the timeline is typical of Musk, and while the Moon has seemingly taken priority over Mars, it is still worth mentioning that the ultimate goal is to make life multiplanetary, and it starts potentially with the Red Planet.

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Investor's Corner

SpaceX gets an absolutely crazy price target after rough IPO

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Credit: SpaceX

SpaceX (NASDAQ: SPCX) got an absolutely crazy price target rating from Raymond James after the company experienced a tough first few weeks following its Initial Public Offering (IPO).

Despite the tumultuous start, SpaceX has plenty of believers, and the company’s massively successful Starship launch last Friday, its 13th test flight of the massive rocket, went so smoothly that Raymond James analysts pushed its price target on the company to roughly 7 times its current trading level.

SpaceX Starship just nailed something it’s never done before

The firm officially put a “Strong Buy” rating and an $800 price target on the stock. It currently trades at around $113. Its all-time high is $225.64, reaching this trading level shortly after shares first went public.

Raymond James’ price target is tied to the firm’s confidence after Starship’s 13th test flight. Analysts at the firm said it was an incremental step that reduces engineering risks, citing the widely successful heat shield test that CEO Elon Musk recently detailed, the smooth deployment of Starlink V3 satellites, and a successful in-space engine relight.

SpaceX also managed to see Starship splash down safely in the Indian Ocean, while the Super Heavy Booster fell down to the Gulf of America with no incidents.

It is interesting to see these launches have such a tremendous impact on the stock and what investors think of it. After SpaceX initially delayed the Starship launch last week, shares fell tremendously. Most probably did not realize that the stand-down is a standard practice, especially if everything is not perfect.

The mission was initially aborted due to an issue with Raptor engines. This was resolved, and Starship launched last Friday after another delay on Thursday, which was caused by weather.

Now that analysts have seen what SpaceX launches are capable of and how impressive the feat is, firms are adjusting their price targets accordingly, making it known that they have high expectations for the space exploration company.

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