News
Tesla gets generous price target projection from ARK without several crucial factors
Tesla got a new, generous price target projection from analyst Cathie Wood and her firm ARK Invest, even though it left out several massive factors.
According to ARK’s latest Tesla projection report, which was released on Wednesday, the firm expects the company’s value to swell to $2,600 per share, with a bull case of potentially $3,100 and a bear case of $2,000.
“ARK estimates that nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029, as shown below. Meanwhile, electric vehicles could approximate a quarter of total sales and ~10% of Tesla’s earnings potential, as we believe the robotaxi business will have much higher margins. The charts below break down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and enterprise value by business line,” its analysis breakdown said.
It is important to note ARK Invest has been particularly bullish on Tesla and its business model for some time. However, it was sure to note that in its latest projections, it did not factor in robotics, as Tesla continues to develop its Optimus Bot and recently stated it has been using it in Gigafactory Texas.
We conservatively assumed that Tesla does not sell Optimus externally in our model, and that Optimus manufacturing savings modestly impact Tesla’s costs in single digit percentages over the next five years.
— Tasha Keeney (@TashaARK) June 12, 2024
ARK broadened this idea in its report:
“We assume that Optimus will have minimal impact on our price target. Over the next decade, we expect Tesla to become a leading manufacturer and service provider of robots that move through physical space, as it will have the opportunity to leverage learnings from robotaxis as well as its in-house inference chips, training compute, and manufacturing scale. Tesla expects Optimus to be completing useful factory tasks by year end. Assuming that it were able to subsume 10-20% of Tesla’s labor hours worked with productivity equal to or twice that of its human counterparts, Optimus could save Tesla $3-4 billion, or 1-2% in manufacturing costs, in 2029.”
In fact, the largest single factor in its analysis is that of the Robotaxi, which accounts for the vast majority of the breakdowns ARK illustrated for Revenue, EBITDA, and Enterprise Value:

There are several things ARK left out of its analysts, and a few of them are arguably groundbreaking and could potentially have a major impact on Tesla’s business in the future:
- Tesla Semi – ARK does not believe the Tesla Semi will “contribute significantly” to the company’s value within the five-year investment time horizon
- Supercharging Network – Tesla Superchargers are “unlikely to generate significant revenue,” although they are essential for EVs
- FSD Licensing – Non-Tesla FSD vehicles are unlikely to debut within the five-year timeframe
- AI-As-A-Service – AI-inference-as-a-service and Dojo training-as-a-service is “probably” outside the five-year timeframe
You can read ARK’s full report here.
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News
Tesla Cybercab display highlights interior wizardry in the small two-seater
Photos and videos of the production Cybercab were shared in posts on social media platform X.
The Tesla Cybercab is currently on display at the U.S. Department of Transportation in Washington, D.C., and observations of the production vehicle are highlighting some of its notable design details.
Photos and videos of the production Cybercab were shared in posts on social media platform X.
Observers of the Cybercab display unit noted that the two-seat Robotaxi provides unusually generous legroom for a vehicle of its size. Based on the vehicle’s video, the compact two-seater appears to offer more legroom than Tesla’s larger vehicles such as the Model Y, Model X, and Cybertruck.
The Cybercab’s layout allows Tesla to dedicate nearly the entire cabin to passengers. The vehicle is designed without a steering wheel or pedals, which helps maximize interior space.
Footage from the display also highlights the Cybercab’s large center screen, which is positioned prominently in front of the passenger bench. The display appears intended to provide entertainment and ride information while the vehicle operates autonomously.
Images of the vehicle also show an additional camera integrated into the Cybercab’s C-pillar. The extra camera appears to expand the vehicle’s field of view, which would be useful as Tesla works toward fully unsupervised Full Self-Driving.
Tesla engineers have previously explained that the Cybercab was designed to be highly efficient both in manufacturing and in operation. Cybercab Lead Engineer Eric E. stated in 2024 that the Robotaxi would be built with roughly half the number of parts used in a Model 3 sedan.
“Two seats unlocks a lot of opportunity aerodynamically. It also means we cut the part count of Cybercab down by a substantial margin. We’re gonna be delivering a car that has roughly half the parts of Model 3 today,” the Tesla engineer said.
The Tesla engineer also noted that the Cybercab’s cargo area can accommodate multiple golf bags, two carry-on suitcases, and two full-size checked bags. The trunk can also fit certain bicycles and a foldable wheelchair depending on size, which is quite impressive for a small car like the Cybercab.
Elon Musk
Elon Musk’s xAI wins permit for power plant supporting AI data centers
The development was reported by CNBC, citing confirmation from the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ).
Mississippi regulators have approved a permit allowing Elon Musk’s artificial intelligence company xAI to construct a natural gas power plant in Southaven. The facility is expected to support the company’s expanding AI infrastructure tied to its Colossus data center operations near Memphis.
The development was reported by CNBC, citing confirmation from the Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality (MDEQ).
According to the report, regulators “voted to approve the permit” of xAI subsidiary MZX Tech LLC to construct a power plant featuring 41 natural gas-burning turbines “after careful consideration of all public comments and community concerns.”
The Mississippi Department of Environmental Quality stated that the permit followed a regulatory review process that included public comments and community input. Jaricus Whitlock, air division chief for the MDEQ, stated that the project met all applicable environmental standards.
“The proposed PSD permit in front of the board today not only meets all state and federal permitting regulations, but goes above and beyond what is required by law. MDEQ and the EPA agree that not a single person around our facilities will be exposed to unhealthy levels of air pollution,” Whitlock stated.
The planned facility will help provide electricity for xAI’s AI computing infrastructure in the Memphis region.
The Southaven project forms part of xAI’s efforts to scale computing capacity for its artificial intelligence systems.
The company currently operates two major data centers in Memphis, known as Colossus 1 and Colossus 2, which provide computing power for xAI’s Grok AI models. xAI is also planning to build another large data center in Southaven called Macrohardrr, which would be located in a warehouse previously used by GXO Logistics.
Large-scale AI training requires substantial computing power and electricity, prompting technology companies to develop dedicated energy infrastructure for their data centers.
SpaceX President Gwynne Shotwell previously stated that xAI plans to develop 1.2 gigawatts of power capacity for its Memphis-area AI supercomputer site as part of the federal government’s Ratepayer Protection Pledge. The commitment was announced during an event with United States President Donald Trump.
“As part of today’s commitment, we will take extensive additional steps to continue to reduce the costs of electricity for our neighbors. xAI will therefore commit to develop 1.2 GW of power as our supercomputer’s primary power source. That will be for every additional data center as well. We will expand what is already the largest global Megapack power installation in the world,” Shotwell said.
“The installation will provide enough backup power to power the city of Memphis, and more than sufficient energy to power the town of Southaven, Mississippi where the data center resides. We will build new substations and invest in electrical infrastructure to provide stability to the area’s grid.”
Elon Musk
Tesla China teases Optimus robot’s human-looking next-gen hands
The image was shared by Tesla AI’s account on Weibo and later reposted by Tesla community members on X.
A new teaser shared by Tesla’s China team appears to show a pair of unusually human-like hands for Optimus.
The image was shared by Tesla AI’s account on Weibo and later reposted by Tesla community members on X.
As could be seen in the teaser image, the new version of Optimus’ hands features proportions and finger structures that look strikingly similar to those of a human hand. Their appearance suggests that they might have dexterity approaching that of a human hand.
If the image reflects a new generation of Optimus’ hands, it could indicate Tesla is continuing to refine one of the most critical components of its humanoid robot.
Hands are widely viewed as one of the most difficult engineering challenges in robotics. For Optimus to perform complex real-world work, from manufacturing tasks to household activities, its hands would need to be the best in the industry.
Elon Musk has repeatedly described Optimus as Tesla’s most important long-term product. In posts on social media platform X, Musk has stated that Optimus could eventually become the first real-world Von Neumann machine.
In theory, a Von Neumann machine is a self-replicating system capable of building copies of itself using available materials. The concept was originally proposed by mathematician John von Neumann in the mid-20th century.
“Optimus will be the first Von Neumann machine, capable of building civilization by itself on any viable planet,” Musk wrote in a post on X.
If Optimus is expected to carry out complex work autonomously in the future, high levels of dexterity will likely be essential. This makes the development of advanced robotic hands a key step towards Musk’s long-term expectations for the product.