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Tesla gets generous price target projection from ARK without several crucial factors
Tesla got a new, generous price target projection from analyst Cathie Wood and her firm ARK Invest, even though it left out several massive factors.
According to ARK’s latest Tesla projection report, which was released on Wednesday, the firm expects the company’s value to swell to $2,600 per share, with a bull case of potentially $3,100 and a bear case of $2,000.
“ARK estimates that nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029, as shown below. Meanwhile, electric vehicles could approximate a quarter of total sales and ~10% of Tesla’s earnings potential, as we believe the robotaxi business will have much higher margins. The charts below break down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and enterprise value by business line,” its analysis breakdown said.
It is important to note ARK Invest has been particularly bullish on Tesla and its business model for some time. However, it was sure to note that in its latest projections, it did not factor in robotics, as Tesla continues to develop its Optimus Bot and recently stated it has been using it in Gigafactory Texas.
We conservatively assumed that Tesla does not sell Optimus externally in our model, and that Optimus manufacturing savings modestly impact Tesla’s costs in single digit percentages over the next five years.
— Tasha Keeney (@TashaARK) June 12, 2024
ARK broadened this idea in its report:
“We assume that Optimus will have minimal impact on our price target. Over the next decade, we expect Tesla to become a leading manufacturer and service provider of robots that move through physical space, as it will have the opportunity to leverage learnings from robotaxis as well as its in-house inference chips, training compute, and manufacturing scale. Tesla expects Optimus to be completing useful factory tasks by year end. Assuming that it were able to subsume 10-20% of Tesla’s labor hours worked with productivity equal to or twice that of its human counterparts, Optimus could save Tesla $3-4 billion, or 1-2% in manufacturing costs, in 2029.”
In fact, the largest single factor in its analysis is that of the Robotaxi, which accounts for the vast majority of the breakdowns ARK illustrated for Revenue, EBITDA, and Enterprise Value:
There are several things ARK left out of its analysts, and a few of them are arguably groundbreaking and could potentially have a major impact on Tesla’s business in the future:
- Tesla Semi – ARK does not believe the Tesla Semi will “contribute significantly” to the company’s value within the five-year investment time horizon
- Supercharging Network – Tesla Superchargers are “unlikely to generate significant revenue,” although they are essential for EVs
- FSD Licensing – Non-Tesla FSD vehicles are unlikely to debut within the five-year timeframe
- AI-As-A-Service – AI-inference-as-a-service and Dojo training-as-a-service is “probably” outside the five-year timeframe
You can read ARK’s full report here.
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Tesla has officially launched the Model Y L in the United States and Puerto Rico for $61,990. It is the longer-wheelbase version of the Model Y, and has been available in China since last year.
Tesla brings the Model Y L to the U.S. just months after it phased out the only pure SUV in its lineup, the Model X. It is slightly longer than the Model Y configurations that are already available in the U.S., and features a three-row, six-seat setup with Captain’s Chairs being among the many features that make this a truly fantastic offering.
The Model Y L is priced competitively at $61,990, and features 325 miles of range and a 0-60 MPH in just 4.4 seconds.
Tesla also added a handful of new features that are not available in even the Premium Model Y. Here’s a full list of its features:
- Heated/Ventilated Front Seats with Powered Thigh Cushion
- Heated/Ventilated Captain’s Seats in Second Row with Powered Armrests & One-Touch Fold
- Heated Third-Row Seats with Power Recline, One-Touch Fold & Child Seat Anchors
- Improved Airflow, Increased Efficiency, More Range
- 89 cubic feet of trunk space
- Upgraded Acoustic Glass and Suspension to Minimize Road Noise
- Adaptive Damping for a Smooth, Stable Ride
- Staggered Tires for Enhanced Grip
- Larger Tailgate for Better Rear Visibility and Bigger Windows Overall
- 16″ First Row and 8″ Second Row Touchscreens
- 19-Speaker Immersive Tesla Audio
- 50W Wireless Charging Pads with Active Cooling and Charging Ports for All Other Seats
- FSD Supervised and Integrated Grok AI
Tesla is also delivering these first units as a “Launch Series,” which comes with additional features, such as:
- Door Trim Puddle Lights
- Suede Dashboard Wing
- Exterior and Interior Badging
- Floor Mats
- Sill Plates
The launch of the Model Y L in the U.S. marks a huge offering from Tesla to U.S. consumers. People have been calling for Tesla to bring a larger car to the U.S., and it needed it more than ever now that the Model X is gone.
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- Credit: Tesla
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- Credit: Tesla
It is a huge accomplishment for Tesla to get the Model Y L to the U.S., and after reporting strong deliveries today, it will be interesting to see how this car impacts future quarterly delivery reports.
Deliveries for the Model Y L “Launch Series” are slated for September or October of this year.
Tesla just told us twice that the Model Y L is coming to the U.S., and two social media posts definitely just tipped the company’s hand, as if they wanted it to be any other way.
The two social media posts basically confirm that the slightly longer version of the Model Y will be heading to the United States soon, and many have speculated that the company could launch the vehicle as soon as this weekend.
The first post was directly from Tesla, and it showed an incredibly long Dachshund, with words above that said, “Looking forward to the long weekend.”
Looking forward to the long weekend pic.twitter.com/URzH6zOUdn
— Tesla (@Tesla) July 1, 2026
Anyone who knows Tesla knows the company loves to troll its fans and have fun, and this is a perfect example of that. While not a direct acknowledgement, Tesla is very involved on social media, especially CEO Elon Musk’s platform X, and the company is well aware of what is being discussed within the community.
With recent sightings of Model Y L test mules in California, peeks of the vehicle at Giga Texas, and a large call for the car to come to the U.S., Tesla is simply stoking conversation with this.
However, the company also made another move that was recognized on social media. Tesla has a large gallery that includes photos of its products so media and others can use them. This gallery applies to the U.S. market specifically, unless otherwise specified.
Tesla uploaded a Model Y L to the Gallery last night:
This looks like a Model Y L https://t.co/TpnBwrLmH9
— TESLARATI (@Teslarati) July 2, 2026
This seems to be another indication that the Model Y L is coming to the United States.
Musk said last year that the Model Y L could make its way to the United States late this year, but it was not something that was set in stone by Tesla. The company definitely needs to establish something in the SUV market that is larger than the Model Y, and the Model Y L might be the answer.
Even still, there are consumers out there who would love Tesla to develop something even larger, like a competitor to the Tahoe or Expedition. Tesla has not really given much of an indication that it will go in that direction.
Tesla is using the vehicles’ internal microphones to improve build quality, Vice President of Engineering Lars Moravy revealed recently.
It’s no secret that Tesla is always finding ways to make its manufacturing operations more efficient, accurate, and valuable. Constantly trying to make its cars better, the company has never placed any restrictions on what it will do to improve everything from panel gaps to paint.
As Teslas have been driving autonomously on the property of the Gigafactory Texas plant for a while now, Moravy revealed to Herbert Ong in a new interview that cars rolling off production lines now autonomously navigate themselves through a bumps, squeaks, and rattles (BSR) portion of the line. This helps to identify any loose or improperly installed internal parts.
The cabin’s microphones, which are used for a variety of things in ownership, simultaneously monitor any noises inside the vehicle while it rolls through the BSR portion of the production line. Moravy actually revealed that Tesla is trying to build “Full Self-Hearing,” an AI system that will detect minor imperfections so they can be corrected before delivery.
It’s no secret that build quality is something that Tesla struggled with as it scaled to a fully massive production operation that manufactures over 1.6 million vehicles per year. However, in recent years, especially, there have not been as many complaints. Tesla has truly improved upon its build quality and paint quality over the past several years, especially in the U.S.
Tesla’s ‘megacasts’ are key to massive build quality improvements
While those improvements have been evident, there are still some complaints; no automaker is perfect with this. But this step will now ensure that every single car that rolls off the production lines at Gigafactory Texas will be void of any creaks, squeaks, or squeals when it leaves the factory.
This measure is one of the most unique we’ve seen in terms of a strategy to avoid build quality issues, but it is not exclusive to Tesla.
Ford uses acoustic analysis AI to find abnormalities in seat motors, climate control units, and other components. Suppliers and OEMs will also use microphone arrays or particle velocity sensors in end-of-line stations.
The full interview with Lars Moravy is available below:
🚨 If you’re a Tesla investor, this is one interview you don’t want to skip. The full video posted below.
Jeff Lutz @thejefflutz and I sat down with Tesla VP of Engineering Lars Moravy, and it was packed with insights!
A few of the biggest takeaways:
• Cybercab is expected to… pic.twitter.com/fhYSr2dCqP
— Herbert Ong (@herbertong) July 1, 2026
Tesla brings Model Y L ‘Launch Series’ to the U.S. at $61,990
Tesla just told us twice that Model Y L is coming to the U.S.
