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Tesla gets generous price target projection from ARK without several crucial factors

Credit: Tesla

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1 year ago

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Tesla got a new, generous price target projection from analyst Cathie Wood and her firm ARK Invest, even though it left out several massive factors.

According to ARK’s latest Tesla projection report, which was released on Wednesday, the firm expects the company’s value to swell to $2,600 per share, with a bull case of potentially $3,100 and a bear case of $2,000.

“ARK estimates that nearly 90% of Tesla’s enterprise value and earnings will be attributed to the robotaxi business in 2029, as shown below. Meanwhile, electric vehicles could approximate a quarter of total sales and ~10% of Tesla’s earnings potential, as we believe the robotaxi business will have much higher margins. The charts below break down attributable revenue, EBITDA, and enterprise value by business line,” its analysis breakdown said.

It is important to note ARK Invest has been particularly bullish on Tesla and its business model for some time. However, it was sure to note that in its latest projections, it did not factor in robotics, as Tesla continues to develop its Optimus Bot and recently stated it has been using it in Gigafactory Texas.

ARK broadened this idea in its report:

“We assume that Optimus will have minimal impact on our price target. Over the next decade, we expect Tesla to become a leading manufacturer and service provider of robots that move through physical space, as it will have the opportunity to leverage learnings from robotaxis as well as its in-house inference chips, training compute, and manufacturing scale. Tesla expects Optimus to be completing useful factory tasks by year end. Assuming that it were able to subsume 10-20% of Tesla’s labor hours worked with productivity equal to or twice that of its human counterparts, Optimus could save Tesla $3-4 billion, or 1-2% in manufacturing costs, in 2029.”

In fact, the largest single factor in its analysis is that of the Robotaxi, which accounts for the vast majority of the breakdowns ARK illustrated for Revenue, EBITDA, and Enterprise Value:

There are several things ARK left out of its analysts, and a few of them are arguably groundbreaking and could potentially have a major impact on Tesla’s business in the future:

  • Tesla Semi – ARK does not believe the Tesla Semi will “contribute significantly” to the company’s value within the five-year investment time horizon
  • Supercharging Network – Tesla Superchargers are “unlikely to generate significant revenue,” although they are essential for EVs
  • FSD Licensing – Non-Tesla FSD vehicles are unlikely to debut within the five-year timeframe
  • AI-As-A-Service – AI-inference-as-a-service and Dojo training-as-a-service is “probably” outside the five-year timeframe

You can read ARK’s full report here.

I’d love to hear from you! If you have any comments, concerns, or questions, please email me at joey@teslarati.com. You can also reach me on Twitter @KlenderJoey, or if you have news tips, you can email us at tips@teslarati.com.

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Joey has been a journalist covering electric mobility at TESLARATI since August 2019. In his spare time, Joey is playing golf, watching MMA, or cheering on any of his favorite sports teams, including the Baltimore Ravens and Orioles, Miami Heat, Washington Capitals, and Penn State Nittany Lions. You can get in touch with joey at joey@teslarati.com. He is also on X @KlenderJoey. If you're looking for great Tesla accessories, check out shop.teslarati.com

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Tesla Supercharger Diner food menu gets a sneak peek as construction closes out

What are you ordering at the Tesla Diner?

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10 hours ago

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July 18, 2025

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Credit: BradGoldbergMD | X

The Tesla Supercharger Diner in Los Angeles is nearing completion as construction appears to be winding down significantly. However, the more minor details, such as what the company will serve at its 50s-style diner for food, are starting to be revealed.

Tesla’s Supercharger Diner is set to open soon, seven years after CEO Elon Musk first drafted the idea in a post on X in 2018. Musk has largely come through on most of what he envisioned for the project: the diner, the massive movie screens, and the intended vibe are all present, thanks to the aerial and ground footage shared on social media.

We already know the Diner will be open 24/7, based on decals placed on the front door of the restaurant that were shared earlier this week. We assume that Tesla Optimus will come into play for these long and uninterrupted hours.

The Tesla Diner is basically finished—here’s what it looks like

As far as the food, Tesla does have an email also printed on the front door of the Diner, but we did not receive any response back (yet) about what cuisine it will be offering. We figured it would be nothing fancy and it would be typical diner staples: burgers, fries, wings, milkshakes, etc.

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According to pictures taken by @Tesla_lighting_, which were shared by Not a Tesla App, the food will be just that: quick and affordable meals that diners do well. It’s nothing crazy, just typical staples you’d find at any diner, just with a Tesla twist:

As the food menu is finalized, we will be sure to share any details Tesla provides, including a full list of what will be served and its prices.

Additionally, the entire property appears to be nearing its final construction stages, and it seems it may even be nearing completion. The movie screens are already up and showing videos of things like SpaceX launches.

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There are many cars already using the Superchargers at the restaurant, and employees inside the facility look to be putting the finishing touches on the interior.

It’s almost reminiscent of a Tesla version of a Buc-ee’s, a southern staple convenience store that offers much more than a traditional gas station. Of course, Tesla’s version is futuristic and more catered to the company’s image, but the idea is the same.

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It’s a one-stop shop for anything you’d need to recharge as a Tesla owner. Los Angeles building permits have not yet revealed the date for the restaurant’s initial operation, but Tesla may have its eye on a target date that will likely be announced during next week’s Earnings Call.

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Tesla’s longer Model Y did not scale back requests for this vehicle type from fans

Tesla fans are happy with the new Model Y, but they’re still vocal about the need for something else.

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1 day ago

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July 17, 2025

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Credit: AlwinArt/Twitter

Tesla launched a slightly longer version of the Model Y all-electric crossover in China, and with it being extremely likely that the vehicle will make its way to other markets, including the United States, fans are still looking for something more.

The new Model Y L in China boasts a slightly larger wheelbase than its original version, giving slightly more interior room with a sixth seat, thanks to a third row.

Tesla exec hints at useful and potentially killer Model Y L feature

Tesla has said throughout the past year that it would focus on developing its affordable, compact models, which were set to begin production in the first half of the year. The company has not indicated whether it met that timeline or not, but many are hoping to see unveilings of those designs potentially during the Q3 earnings call.

However, the modifications to the Model Y, which have not yet been officially announced for any markets outside of China, still don’t seem to be what owners and fans are looking forward to. Instead, they are hoping for something larger.

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A few months ago, I reported on the overall consensus within the Tesla community that the company needs a full-size SUV, minivan, or even a cargo van that would be ideal for camping or business use.

Tesla is missing one type of vehicle in its lineup and fans want it fast

That mentality still seems very present amongst fans and owners, who state that a full-size SUV with enough seating for a larger family, more capability in terms of cargo space for camping or business operation, and something to compete with gas cars like the Chevrolet Tahoe, Ford Expedition, or electric ones like the Volkswagen ID.BUZZ.

We asked the question on X, and Tesla fans were nearly unanimously in support of a larger SUV or minivan-type vehicle for the company’s lineup:

Here’s what some of the respondents said:

Tesla is certainly aware that many of its owners would like the company to develop something larger that competes with the large SUVs on the market.

However, it has not stated that anything like that is in the current plans for future vehicles, as it has made a concerted effort to develop Robotaxi alongside the affordable, compact models that it claims are in development.

It has already unveiled the Robovan, a people-mover that can seat up to 20 passengers in a lounge-like interior.

The Robovan will be completely driverless, so it’s unlikely we will see it before the release of a fully autonomous Full Self-Driving suite from Tesla.

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Energy

Tesla launches first Virtual Power Plant in UK – get paid to use solar

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom.

Published

1 day ago

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July 17, 2025

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Credit: Tesla Energy | X

Tesla has launched its first-ever Virtual Power Plant program in the United Kingdom. This feature enables users of solar panels and energy storage systems to sell their excess energy back to the grid.

Tesla is utilizing Octopus Energy, a British renewable energy company that operates in multiple markets, including the UK, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Australia, Japan, New Zealand, and the United States, as the provider for the VPP launch in the region.

The company states that those who enroll in the program can earn up to £300 per month.

Tesla has operated several VPP programs worldwide, most notably in California, Texas, Connecticut, and the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico. This is not the first time Tesla has operated a VPP outside the United States, as there are programs in Australia, Japan, and New Zealand.

This is its first in the UK:

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Tesla is not the only company that is working with Octopus Energy in the UK for the VPP, as it joins SolarEdge, GivEnergy, and Enphase as other companies that utilize the Octopus platform for their project operations.

It has been six years since Tesla launched its first VPP, as it started its first in Australia back in 2019. In 2024, Tesla paid out over $10 million to those participating in the program.

Tesla VPP program in California hits new capacity milestone

Participating in the VPP program that Tesla offers not only provides enrolled individuals with the opportunity to earn money, but it also contributes to grid stabilization by supporting local energy grids.

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