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Tesla MIT study concludes that drivers maintain vigilance when using Autopilot

[Credit: LivingTesla/YouTube]

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Tesla owners using Autopilot are highly engaged when driving with the feature despite fears to the contrary, according to a study recently published by scientists at MIT titled Human Side of Tesla Autopilot: Exploration of Functional Vigilance in Real-World Human-Machine Collaboration.

The data used in the study was generated from the over 1 billion miles driven by Tesla owners since its activation in 2015, about 35% of which were determined to be assisted by Autopilot. Of these, 18,928 disengagements of Autopilot were annotated, which indicated instances when drivers took over during challenging driving situations. Overall, the numbers demonstrate a high rate of driver vigilance.

Tesla has provided a unique opportunity to form a baseline for objective, representative analysis of real-world use of Autopilot, as stated in the study:

“Due to its scale of deployment and individual utilization, [Tesla’s] Autopilot serves as perhaps the currently best available opportunity to study and understand human interaction with AI assisted vehicles ‘in the wild’…naturalistic driving research can now begin investigating and identify both promising and concerning trends in drivers’ behavioral patterns in the context of Autopilot.”

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Results graph from “Human Side of Tesla Autopilot” Study. | Credit: MIT

As automation has expanded over the last several decades, a pattern of overtrust in reliable automated systems has been shown by human behavior research studies. In the context of driving scenarios where property damage, injury, or death are possible consequences, the concern with the transition to semi-autonomous systems relying on driver input to function safely is obviously significant. The results of the MIT study are therefore promising, initially showing an approach to automation in driving systems that’s more careful than other areas.

“The two main results of this work are that (1) drivers elect to use Autopilot for a significant percent of their driven miles and (2) drivers do not appear to over-trust the system to a degree that results in significant functional vigilance degradation in their supervisory role of system operation,” the MIT scientists concluded.

The study further notes that more research will be needed as more data becomes available and more familiarity grows with Autopilot’s features.

Tesla has received a fair amount of criticism and attention whenever an accident involves one of its cars, especially if Autopilot was engaged around the time of the event. However, Tesla consistently maintains its position that the feature is not yet fully autonomous and requires drivers to both pay attention and intervene when necessary while Autopilot is in operation. The program is additionally equipped with several alerts which give drivers audio and visual warnings if hands are not detected on the steering wheel, something found to have been ignored in some prior crash events, playing into concerns the MIT study sought to address.

The Tesla Model 3’s ratings from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. [Credit: NHTSA]

Beginning in Q3 2018, Tesla has been releasing quarterly Vehicle Safety Reports providing updated numbers for vehicle incidents occurring both when Autopilot was engaged and when the driver-assist feature was deactivated. For Q3, the company reported one accident or crash-like event for every 3.34 million miles driven with Autopilot active and one event for every 1.92 million miles driven with Autopilot disengaged. In Q4 2018, those numbers dropped slightly, possibly due to winter conditions, to one accident for every 2.91 million miles driven with Autopilot engaged and one accident for every 1.58 million miles driven without.

By comparison, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration’s (NHTSA) most recent data at the time showed a crash event every 436,000 miles, a figure which includes all vehicles in the US whether or not the cars are equipped with driving enhancement software. Tesla’s numbers further include both accidents that have occurred and “near-misses”, and the NHTSA’s figures only include accidents that actually transpired.

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Along with touting a correlation between lower accident rates and Autopilot being engaged, Tesla also maintains its title of producing the safest cars in the world based on NHTSA test results.

Accidental computer geek, fascinated by most history and the multiplanetary future on its way. Quite keen on the democratization of space. | It's pronounced day-sha, but I answer to almost any variation thereof.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 ‘Lite’ Release Notes: new capabilities and features

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(Credit: Megan Gale/Twitter)

Tesla released the Full Self-Driving v14 ‘Lite’ suite to owners of Hardware 3 or AI3 vehicles today, adding several new features to the vehicles that were once believed to be capable of unsupervised self-driving.

Now, Tesla has released this modified suite to older Tesla vehicles, adding plenty of new features and capabilities.

Here are the full release notes for the suite:

  • Distilled the intelligence from HW4 V14 into HW3. This allows HW3 to directly learn how to handle scenarios using HW4 V14 as a guide. This process unlocks the improvements that have been made to HW4 including Reinforcement Learning (RL) and offline models for HW3.
  • Improved both proactive and reactive responsiveness across a wide variety of categories including navigation handling, merges and forks, pedestrian interactions, traffic lights, and vehicle cut-in scenarios.
  • Improved general comfort in nominal scenarios through fewer false slowdowns, smoother steering and more consistent lane centering.
  • Introduced parking, unparking, and reversing capabilities.
  • Added Arrival Options for you to select where FSD should park: in a Parking Lot, on the Street, in a Driveway, or at the Curbside.
  • Speed Profiles are now available at all times, to further customize driving style preference.

These improvements, according to Tesla’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, help distill the driving behavior from AI4’s v14 series into both the camera and compute configurations of AI3.

Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 ‘Lite’ for older cars finally gets released

He added:

“It includes destination options and speed profiles on city roads, but more importantly significantly improved safety. We hope you’ll enjoy it, once the build ships wide.”

Tesla will continue to roll out the v14 Lite suite more widely in the coming weeks, the company said.

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Tesla Full Self-Driving v14 ‘Lite’ for older cars finally gets released

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tesla model 3 model y
Credit: Tesla Inc.

Tesla has finally released its Full Self-Driving v14 ‘Lite’ suite for older cars that equip the Hardware 3 or AI 3 chip, which have not been able to handle the newest versions of the company’s driver assistance software.

Tesla officially started releasing the v14 Lite suite to owners in the Early Access Program last night. The company’s Head of AI, Ashok Elluswamy, said that the rollout will continue over the next few weeks. The build distills the driving behavior from AI4’s v14 series into both the camera and compute configurations of an AI3 car.

It also includes a variety of new features that were available to AI4 cars running v14, including:

  • Start Self-Driving from Park
  • Arrival and Parking Options
  • Speed Profiles

The release is highly anticipated because those owners with AI3 vehicles were early adopters into the FSD platform and were promised that their cars would be capable of achieving Full Self-Driving.

However, Tesla CEO Elon Musk admitted during the company’s recent Q1 Earnings Call that these vehicles would not be capable of achieving unsupervised Full Self-Driving, which is what Tesla had originally said.

Owners were not pleased with this answer, or the idea that their commitment to buying the suite outright for thousands of dollars would not yield the ability to drive without operating the car. Tesla gave some solutions for this, including a discount on a new car, or an upgrade to an AI4 or AI5 self-driving computer and new, upgraded cameras.

Tesla owners do not seem pleased with these options, as they require giving the company more money.

Nevertheless, it is important to note that Tesla came through for owners here by releasing v14 Lite before the end of Q2, something it had promised owners during the previous Earnings Call. Tesla has had trouble keeping up with timelines, but this is a big achievement for the team.

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Tesla Q2 delivery consensus confirms this long-standing theory

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Credit: Joe Tegtmeyer/X

Tesla released what analysts believe the company will report in terms of deliveries and energy deployments for Q2, but the figures seem to confirm a long-standing theory on the company’s vehicle division.

For years, Tesla was just looked at as a car company. Now that it has established itself as a powerhouse in energy, AI, and tech as a whole, the company is now less hellbent on achieving quarterly growth, on a sequential basis, at least from a major standpoint.

Tesla topped out its annual deliveries in 2023 at 1.81 million, and in the two years since, the company has reported a decrease in deliveries for the entire 12-month term both times.

With Tesla delivering 358,023 cars in Q1, a 6.3 percent increase over Q1 2025, but falling short of Wall Street expectations at 365,000-370,000 units, the narrative around vehicle deliveries and their importance continued to change earlier this year. Some might say it is convenient, but others might say it is the typical evolution of a company that continues to change over time.

For Q2, Tesla’s delivery consensus estimates sit at 406,024 units, analysts believe. They were surveyed from Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Cowen, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, BMP Paribas, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Truist, UBS, Jefferies, JPM, Needham & Co., HSBC, and William Blair.

Credit: Tesla

Tesla is also expected to report deployments of 13.8 GWh this quarter.

The change to Tesla’s overall narrative now leans less on vehicle deliveries and more on its other projects. Most notably, Tesla’s Robotaxi project has taken the priority over most of its other business ventures, and investors and the public are more concerned about the deployment of vehicles into the fleet, the operation of a driverless ride-hailing service, Cybercab production and operation, and expansion into new cities.

Tesla analyst realizes one big thing about the stock: deliveries are losing importance

This big narrative switch happened when Tesla indicated it was looking at making transportation a service by launching a ride-hailing service that will operate using Tesla’s Full Self-Driving suite. Once unsupervised operation begins, Robotaxi could be a new way for people to get around, all without a driver in their car.

Instead, they will rely on the billions of miles Tesla has accumulated from its real-world fleet.

It is important to note that Tesla remains significant in the automotive sector, and deliveries must continue as they have for years. Tesla still has a strong automotive business and needs to execute further on all facets to keep its investors happy.

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