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Tesla to begin pilot production of Model 3 on February 20

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Silver Tesla Model 3 at the Avaya Stadium, Nov 5, 2016

Tesla has put Model 3 suppliers on notice that the company intends to start test building the Model 3 on February 20. Manufacturers often test build new models to verify that the assembly line is configured properly, to assess the build quality before full production starts, and to check on the quality of the parts that will be used in manufacture. The source who supplied the information to Reuters did not indicate how many Model 3 vehicles would be involved in the test build.

The pushback of Tesla’s fourth quarter earnings call to February 22, and two days after Model 3 pilot production begins, isn’t a coincidence. “What better way to stoke the fan base and Wall Street than to wheel out pre-production models” ahead of the earnings announcement, said one person familiar with Tesla’s plans who spoke on condition of anonymity.

A spokesperson for Tesla declined to comment on the company’s production schedule, but said “our ramp-up in production moves as fast as the slowest and least lucky supplier.” Musk had told investors last year that the company could miss the July 2017 startup target if suppliers do not meet deadlines.

Investors are nervous about the start of production for the Model 3 because Tesla has experienced numerous delays in bringing its automobiles to market on time in the past. If it is late to market with the Model 3, that could put negative pressure on the company’s stock price. Tesla’s current market capitalization of about $41 billion is equivalent to that of Nissan, which produced just over 5.5 million cars in 2016. Tesla produced 83,922.

The company had serious problems getting the Model X into volume production, due in part to issues involving its innovative Falcon Wing doors and in part to build quality and parts supply problems. Many interested observers are expecting the company to have similar issues bringing the Model 3 to market on time. But if Tesla can hit the very aggressive targets set by Musk, it’s stock value could improve significantly.

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Red Tesla Model 3 at the vehicle unveiling event on March 31, 2016 from the company’s Hawthorne, CA Design Center.

Last May, Tesla announced it had taken 373,000 refundable $1,000 deposits for the Model 3 from customers around the world, making the Model 3 the most successful new car model in history. Musk says the company will be building 500,000 cars a year by the end of next year — another bold projection that some analysts find hard to believe.

“We assume “0” Model 3 deliveries in ’17,” Barclays analyst Brian Johnson wrote in a Jan. 3 note. Morgan Stanley’s Adam Jonas in a Jan. 19 note said he expected a “soft launch” of the Model 3 to be delayed until late 2017. Nonetheless, Jonas has raised his target price for Tesla stock to $305 per share.

Whether the company meets or beats its own self imposed deadlines for the Model 3, there is no doubt the Model 3 is the most anticipated new car in the world. The Tesla faithful would love for Tesla to hit its marks, but if the cars are delayed — even substantially — investors may lose faith in the company temporarily but its customers never will.

"I write about technology and the coming zero emissions revolution."

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Tesla Cybercab is changing the look of Austin’s roads, and it’s not even in production yet

Videos and photos showed the sleek, two-seat autonomous vehicles navigating traffic.

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Credit: @niccruzpatane/X

Even before entering production, Tesla’s Cybercab is already transforming the appearance of Austin’s streets, with multiple prototypes spotted testing in downtown areas recently. 

Videos and photos showed the sleek, two-seat autonomous vehicles navigating traffic. Interestingly enough, the vehicles were equipped with temporary steering wheels and human safety drivers.

Recent Cybercab sightings

Over the weekend, enthusiasts captured footage of two Cybercabs driving together in central Austin, their futuristic silhouettes standing out amid regular traffic. While the vehicles featured temporary steering wheels and side mirrors for now, they retained their futuristic, production-intent exterior design.

Industry watcher Sawyer Merritt shared one of the vehicles’ videos, noting the increasing frequency of the autonomous two-seater’s sightings.

Previewing the autonomous future

Sightings of the Cybercab have been ramping in several key areas across the United States in recent weeks. Sightings include units at Apple’s Visitor Center in California, the Fremont factory test track, and in Austin’s streets.

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The increased activity suggests that Tesla is in overdrive, validating the autonomous two-seater ahead of its planned volume production. Elon Musk confirmed at the 2025 Shareholder Meeting that manufacturing begins around April 2026 with ambitious targets, and during an All-Hands meeting earlier this year, Musk hinted that ultimately, Tesla’s factories should be able to produce one Cybercab every 10 seconds. 

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Tesla celebrates 9 million vehicles produced globally

The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide.

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Credit: Tesla Asia/X

Tesla has achieved a new milestone, rolling out its nine millionth vehicle worldwide from Giga Shanghai. 

The achievement, announced by Tesla Asia on X, celebrated not just the Shanghai team’s output but the company’s cumulative production across all its factories worldwide. The milestone came as 2025 drew to a close, and it inspired praise from some of the company’s key executives.

Tesla’s 9 million vehicle milestone

The commemorative photo from Tesla Asia featured the Giga Shanghai team assembled on the factory floor, surrounding the milestone Model Y unit, which looked pristine in white. The image was captioned: “Our 9 millionth vehicle globally has just rolled off the production line at Giga Shanghai. Thanks to our owners and supporters around the world.” 

Senior Vice President of Automotive Tom Zhu praised Tesla’s factory teams for the remarkable milestone. He also shared his gratitude to Tesla owners for their support. “Congrats to all Tesla factories for this amazing milestone! Thanks to our owners for your continued support!” Zhu wrote in a post on X.

Giga Shanghai’s legacy

Tesla’s nine million vehicle milestone is especially impressive considering that just 207 days ago, the company announced that it had built its eight millionth car globally. The eight millionth Tesla, a red Model Y, was built in Giga Berlin. The fact that Tesla was able to build a million cars in less than seven months is quite an accomplishment. 

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Giga Shanghai, Tesla’s largest factory by volume, has been instrumental to the company’s overall operations, having reached four million cumulative vehicles earlier in 2025. The plant produces Model 3 and Model Y for both domestic Chinese and export markets, making it the company’s primary vehicle export hub. 

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Tesla officially publishes Q4 2025 vehicle delivery consensus

By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results.

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Credit: Tesla

Tesla has taken the rather unusual step of officially publishing its company-compiled Q4 2025 delivery consensus on the Investor Relations site. As per analyst estimates, Tesla is expected to deliver 422,850 vehicles and deploy 13.4 GWh of battery storage systems this Q4 2025. 

By releasing these numbers directly, Tesla establishes a clear, transparent benchmark ahead of its actual results, making it harder for narratives to claim a “miss” based on outlier estimates.

Official consensus sets the record straight

Tesla’s IR press release detailed the consensus from 20 analysts for vehicle deliveries and 16 analysts for energy deployments. As per the release, full-year 2025 consensus delivery estimates come in at 1,640,752 vehicles, an 8.3% decline from 2025’s FY deliveries of 1,789,226 cars. 

Tesla noted that while it “does not endorse any information, recommendations or conclusions made by the analysts,” its press release does provide a notable reference point. Analysts contributing to the company compiled consensus include Daiwa, DB, Wedbush, Oppenheimer, Canaccord, Baird, Wolfe, Exane, Goldman Sachs, RBC, Evercore ISI, Barclays, Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, UBS, Jefferies, Needham, HSBC, Cantor Fitzgerald, and William Blair.

Credit: Tesla Investor Relations

Tesla’s busy Q4 2025

Tesla seems to be pushing hard to deliver as many vehicles as possible before the end of 2025, despite the company’s future seemingly being determined not by vehicle deliveries, but FSD and Optimus’ rollout and ramp. Still, reports from countries such as China are optimistic, with posts on social media hinting that Tesla’s delivery centers in the country are appearing packed as the final weeks of 2025 unfold.

The Tesla Model Y and Model 3 are also still performing well in China’s premium EV segment. Based on data from January to November, the Model Y took China’s number one spot in the RMB 200,000-RMB 300,000 segment for electric vehicles, selling 359,463 units. The Model 3 sedan took third place, selling 172,392. This is quite impressive considering that both the Model Y and Model 3 command a premium compared to their domestic rivals. 

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